Pennsylvania: The new #1!
In the summer of 2011, here on Sunday Kos, I attempted to quantify the level of interest we could expect in the 2012 elections for each state. The top three states were largely where you would expect: Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. But Montana cracked the top 10, as well.
Clearly a lot has changed since July. The redistricting process has been completed in a number of states, Senate and gubernatorial elections have been firmed up, and the race for the White House is slightly clearer than it was six months ago.
So, to start off 2012 in earnest, it is time to reconsider which states are going to get the lion's share of the attention in the coming election year. Before we head through the top ten, however, let's reset the criteria, with a pretty significant change in one of the parameters:
1. THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
As always happens, we can expect Barack Obama's re-election to consume the lion's share of the oxygen in this campaign cycle. So, it is weighted the heaviest. This is where the biggest change to the formula takes place. Each state's competitiveness was measured by race ratings offered by Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg (to be replaced later by our own race ratings here at Daily Kos Elections). Eight points are awarded for a toss-up, four points for a state described as leaning to one party or the other, two points for a state described as likely to be one party or the other, and one point for a state described as a safe win. The average rating will then be multiplied by a factor related to the state's electoral votes. States with 3-9 electoral votes are multiplied by one, states with 10-19 electoral votes are multiplied by two, and so on.
2. THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
With Senate control potentially at a knife's edge, the upper chamber in Congress will deservedly get a lot of attention. Here, let's look at the race ratings provided by three prognosticators: Cook, Stu Rothenberg and Larry Sabato. And all three have offered an early take on the landscape. Once again, if a race is defined as a toss-up, it will be worth eight points. If a race is defined as "leaning" to a party (even if it is not the incumbent party), it will be worth four points. A race defined as "likely" to go to a certain party gets two points. A "safe" seats gets a single point (note: this is a change since last July). The state's "Senate rating" is created by averaging the three scores together. In other words, if two of the guys have a race as leaning Democratic, while one has it as a likely Democratic race, the overall rating would be 3.33.
3. THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
Count me among those who think House control could also be very easily at a knife's edge. We will also go with the prognosticators here as well (who will eventually be replaced by our own Daily Kos Elections race ratings, by the way). Because it is possible for one state to have multiple races in the mix, the point values here will dissipate a bit: four points for a toss-up, two points for a leaner, and one point for a "likely" rating. Once again, an average of the three pundits will be taken.
It is worth noting that, of all the parameters, this is the one that seems the most likely to shift dramatically, since the whims of redistricting are going to play a substantial role here. Also, expect big shifts as we go along, because one of the three pundits (Rothenberg) appears to only be forecasting in states where redistricting is already completed.
4. THE RACE FOR THE STATEHOUSE
For now, this will mean just the gubernatorial races ... For the sake of simplicity, let's offer up the same point values as the Senate races.
With the criteria set, head beneath the fold to find out who makes the top ten. As one might expect, the order of finish was shaken up quite a bit from last summer.
Before we hit the top 10, a shout out is due to the six electoral entities that tied for last place. What that means, in effect, is that the forecasting trio of Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg do not find a single competitive race within their borders. So kudos to Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, and Washington D.C. It is pretty hard to be that big of a crashing bore come election time!
Also, a shout out to the only state to fall out of the top 10 since July: Montana. Montana will still be worth watching for competitive races across the board, but polling shows that the presidential race (which was decided by less than 3 percent in 2008) will be a bit more lopsided this November. Still, Montana's coin flip races for the Senate, governor, and the lone House seat in the state will make it one to watch.
And now, as Casey Kasem might say, on with the top ten!
T-9th: ILLINOIS (last time: NR) and MISSOURI (last time: 6) with 18.33 points
The only tie in the top 10 is between two neighboring states in the Heartland. Illinois cracks the top 10 almost exclusively by virtue of its House races. If the Democrats are going to surprise the pundit class and reclaim the House, Illinois will be a critical component in that victory. Democrats have no less than five legitimate targets in the state (IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-13, IL-17). One change since the summer, they now also have to play defense in the state, since Jerry Costello's announcement of a retirement in IL-12. Democrat Brad Harriman has to be seen as a slight favorite here, however, especially with Illinois native son Barack Obama heading the ticket for the blue team.
Meanwhile, Missouri actually backs down a couple of slots, largely because the much anticipated gubernatorial battle between Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon and Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder fell apart beneath the weight of Kinder's own immense personal baggage. The GOP recovered with businessman Dave Spence, but Nixon now has to be considered a betting favorite. That, and the near-total lack of competitive House races, pushes Missouri to the brink of falling out of the top ten.
8th: NEVADA (last time: 8) with 19.01 points
Nevada holds steady from last summer. My speculation: if anything, the Silver State will edge upward. The Sabato crew still, inexplicably, has the Senate race as Leans Republican, which is hard to justify with the current polling in that race. That, plus the developing House races in three of the state's four Congressional districts, will garner Nevada a great deal of attention. Furthermore, the state's six electoral votes are bound to be considerably closer than 2008's margin of a dozen points in the Democrat's favor.
7th: VIRGINIA (last time: 4) with 20.66 points
Virginia is obviously critical to the presidential election (where the state's 13 electoral votes will likely be decided by four points or less). The state could also be critical to the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, where Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen are engaged in what will be arguably the most closely watched Senate race of the cycle. Where Virginia falls down the charts (and may continue to do so) is at the House level. When the Virginia GOP now in control of every level of state government, it is pretty safe to assume the final Congressional maps out of the state will lock in the Republican gains from last year, and wipe out any hope of competitive districts here.
6th: OHIO (last time: 2) with 23.33 points
Here is another state that went sliding down the charts courtesy of Republican gerrymandering. The Ohio GOP took a state that was the center of attention in 2010 and reduced it to a mess of (mostly) safe seats. The state will still get a lot of focus because of its 18 electoral votes, persistently competitive presidential races, and a potential sleeper of a Senate race between Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown and GOP challenger Josh Mandel. But the Ohio-mander that practically rendered competitive House races extinct took a lot of intrigue out of November's politics in the Buckeye State.
5th: NORTH CAROLINA (last time: 3) with 26.99 points
Not to sound like a broken record or anything, but: Republican. Gerrymander. House. Less competitive. But the Tar Heel State remains in the top five because the presidential race continues to look like an absolute coin-flip, and because some of those House races (NC-07, NC-08, NC-11) still look competitive, and the state's Democrats have actually had a decent recruiting cycle to go after some districts that have not been competitive in previous cycles (NC-05, NC-10). Don't sleep on North Carolina ... yet.
4th: FLORIDA (last time: 1) with 31 points
Florida falls out of the top spot, but it really did so on something of a technicality. The Sunshine State lost a few points in the presidential calculus, as team Rothenberg for some reason decided to label Florida as a leans Republican state, as opposed to a toss-up. The House map is still not finalized, but that could add points to the ledger for Florida, as a number of potentially intriguing matchups abound. In addition, with the entry of Republican Rep. Connie Mack into the Senate race against Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, that race has also moved into the top tier of races to determine the balance of power in the upper chamber, as well.
3rd: WISCONSIN (last time: 10) with 35 points
Wisconsin sails up the chart because, quite simply, it has it all in 2012. Not even counting the potential for a half-dozen state Senate recalls (which were not part of the calculus here), you have the increasingly likely prospect of a recall election for Gov. Scott Walker. A toss-up gubernatorial matchup will join what is already shaping up to be a whale of an open seat Senate battle between Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin and former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson. Add a couple of potentially competitive House races, and ten electoral votes that are going to be in play, and the Badger State will continue to be a focal point for political junkies after being arguably the biggest story in the electoral landscape for 2011.
2nd: CALIFORNIA (last time: 7) with 35.67 points
We have not been able to say this for, quite literally, decades, but the road to a majority in the House of Representatives will simply come down to California. The ability of the GOP to hang onto its territory in the Golden State will speak volumes to their ability to hang onto the majority nationally. An almost inconceivable 14 of the state's 53 congressional districts were cited by one of the three forecasters used in this analysis as competitive on some level, with six races deemed as a "toss up" by one or more of the prognosticators. Plus, the presidential contest could matter, if polls show the state's 55 electoral votes as close enough to tease the Republican nominee into dropping some coin on the longshot, a la George W. Bush in 2000. California also boasts a Senate race, though that one still seems uncompetitive at this point.
1st: PENNSYLVANIA (last time: 5) with 37.33 points
The Keystone State moves to the head of the class. While the PA GOP tried to kill the House races via gerrymandering, as well, they could not rob the state of competitive races entirely, meaning that there will be races to watch, especially in the southeastern part of the state. But the main reason for Pennsylvania's move to the top of the charts is the growing consensus that control of the White House could well come down to this state. In theory, Obama could live without Florida, and perhaps even Florida and Ohio. But if Pennsylvania also falls by the wayside, it is hard to envision a road to victory for team Obama. And, perhaps more than any other nominally Democratic state in presidential elections, the relationship between the president and Pennsylvania seems to have cooled markedly. Everyone will be watching Pennsylvania in November. Count on it.