For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta in Florida. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.
With the Florida primary rapidly descending upon us, I thought I'd ratchet out my diary where I see what could happen to the Sunshine State if the House was Doubled in size.
In Florida in 2010, Floridians overwhelmingly (63%) passed a constitutional amendment that asks for "Fairness", "as equal in population as feasible" and use "city, county and geographical boundaries" while also obeying the VRA. The problem was, the constitutional amendment kept the line-drawing power in the hands of the legislature instead of giving it to an independent commission. So what do the entrenched Republican legislators do? For the most part, ignore the amendment. At least the "fairness" part.
So I thought I'd try my hand. Except for the population part, I've never been very good at following it.
Previous Doubling Diaries: SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Florida gets a whopping 53 districts.
Panhandle
1
VAP: 72.2 White, 17.7 Black
38.4 Obama
Open; Pensacola. Safe R
2
VAP: 83.1 W, 7.3 B
25.8 Obama
Jeff Miller (R-Chumuckla) lives here. Not much to say, there are no major cities, and it drops from 32% Obama to about 26%. Safe R
3
VAP: 76.9 W, 15.8 B
32.4 Obama
Steve Southerland (R-Panama City) lives here. Finishing off the Panhandle. Safe R
4
VAP: 59.2 W, 31.1 B, 5.7 Hispanic
61.2 Obama
Open; Tallahassee, Gadsen and Jackson Counties. There would be an opening for a black Democrat in the primary, maybe former Sen. Al Lawson or Tallahassee Mayor John Marks? Safe D, black opportunity
Jacksonville and environs
5
VAP: 39.6 W, 49.8 B, 6.1 H
68.2 Obama
Plurality black; Corinne Brown (D-Jacksonville) lives here. One of the two Florida congresscritters who filed a lawsuit over the FairDistricts amendment (Mario Diaz-Balart (R) was the other), she would be happy with this district, it's actually 0.5% more black than her current district. Not that she deserves it. Safe D, black hold
6
VAP: 77.9 W, 14.1 B
30.3 Obama
Ander Crenshaw (R-Jacksonville) might live here, but even if he didn't he'd run here, he already represents about 100% of the constituents. He drops 7% of Obama performance. Safe R
7
VAP: 73.2 W, 10.8 B, 8.1 H, 5.7 Asian
39.5 Obama
Open; Jacksonville (part). Safe R, though it may be a demographic time bomb.
8
VAP: 67 W, 18.2 B, 8.6 H
57.4 Obama
Cliff Steans (R-Ocala) lives here, but likely runs in the 12th or 13th instead. Gainesville and Ocala. College towns, baby. Likely D
9
VAP: 79.1 W, 12.1 B, 5.6 H
52.1 Obama
Open; the "Fun Coast". Daytona Beach, Port Orange Palm Coast and Palatka. Swing
11
VAP: 82.4 W, 7.2 B, 5.9 H
32.4 Obama
Open; St. Augustine, the oldest city in America (take that, 4th Grade Geography Bowl). John Mica (R-Winter Park) does not live here, but would probably run here over anywhere else Safe R
12
VAP: 82.8 W, 7.4 B, 7.4 H
37.4 Obama
Open; Cliff Stearns, as I mentioned, would probably rather run here than his home district, the 8th. Marion, Putnam, Clay and Bradford Counties. Safe R
13
VAP: 87.4 W, 6.1 H
42.3 Obama
Open; Republican Rich Nugent's home of Spring Hill is drawn out of the district, but he would run here, he currently represents most of the voters here. Safe R
I-4 Corridor
Orlando
10
VAP: 72.1 W, 10.5 B, 14.3 H
53.1 Obama
Open; Sandy Adams (R-Orlando) represents much of this territory currently. Deltona and New Smyrna Beach, the rest of the "Fun Coast". Former Rep. Suzanna Kosmas could attempt a comeback. Kosmas had the largest margin of victory over an incumbent Republican in 2008. She lost to Adams by the 2nd largest margin in 2010. This district is 3 points better for Obama than the current 24th, but it's still a pretty quintessential Swing district.
14
VAP: 32.6 W, 41.3 B, 19 H
72.6 Obama
Open; black plurality. Orlando. Safe D, likely black pickup
15
VAP: 40.5 W, 8.7 B, 43.2 H, 5.6 A
61.8 Obama
Open; Hispanic plurality. Orlando. This may be the district that former Rep. Alan Grayson tries his hand in under this map. Safe D, possible Hispanic pickup
16
VAP: 70 W, 7.9 B, 16.9 H
52.2 Obama
John Mica and Daniel Webster (R-Orlando) both likely live here. Orlando and southern Seminole County. As I pointed out above, Mica would probably run in the 11th over anywhere else, in order to keep his district Republican. Webster likely runs here, but without a firebrand opponent like Alan Grayson, he may lose. Swing
17
VAP: 48.6 W, 8.1 B, 35.8 H, 5.4 A
56.5 Obama
Open; white plurality. Kissimmee and Southwest Orange County. Opening for a Hispanic in the primary. Likely D, hispanic opportunity
18
VAP: 74.1 W, 7.2 B, 13.2 H
44.1 Obama
Open; Orlando suburbs and the Space Coast. John Mica also may try a run here, as it's a little closer to his home. Safe R
19
VAP: 81 W, 8.6 B, 7.8 H
40.6 Obama
Open; Lake and Sumter Counties. Safe R
20
VAP: 72 W, 10.8 B, 13.6 H
45.7 Obama
Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland) lives here. Safe R
21
VAP: 83 W, 7 B, 6 H
43 Obama
Bill Posey (R-Rockledge), whose grandfather may or may not have been an alligator, lives here. Space Coast. Safe R
Tampa
22
VAP: 88.4 W, 6.8 H
50 Obama (Obama win by 14 votes)
As I said, Rich Nugent (R- Spring Hill) lives here, but he runs in the 13th. Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor) also lives here, and could win, but may choose not to. The 23rd and 29th, which he represents part of, may be better choices, if he's scared of the increased Obama %age. Northern part of the "Sun Coast". Likely R with Bilirakis, Swing without
23
VAP: 70.4 W, 9 B, 14.4 H
49.4 Obama
Open; Dade City, Zephyrhills, Land O'Lakes and Lady Magdalene. Another district Bilirakis could run in, but isn't much better for him than the 22nd. Likely R with Bilirakis, Swing without
24
VAP: 82.5 W, 5.4 B, 8.3 H
50.8 Obama
Open; Clearwater and Sun Coast. Swing
25
VAP: 83.3 W, 6.6 H
52.7 Obama
Bill Young (R-Indian Shores) lives here. St. Petersburg (part). Almost a 2-point swing to Obama, but Young probably has this district until he retires. It would be a golden pickup opportunity after that, though. Likely R
26
VAP: 50.3 W, 11.4 B, 32.8 H
54.5 Obama
Open; NW Hillsborough County. Lean D, Hispanic opportunity
27
VAP: 50.9 W, 24.1 B, 20.5 H
64 Obama
Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) lives here. Tampa. Safe D
28
VAP: 63.5 W, 19.7 B, 13.7 H
58.6 Obama
Open; St. Petersburg, Sun City Center and down into Bradenton. Safe D
29
VAP: 69.5 W, 10.4 B, 16.5 H
42.3 Obama
Open; eastern Hillsborough County and into Winter Haven. As I said, Gus Bilirakis may run here if he doesn't feel confident enough to win in his home district. This would probably be the most attractive of his options. Safe R
South Central
30
VAP: 66.9 W, 11.1 B, 19.6 H
45.2 Obama
Open; Central rurals. Safe R
31
VAP: 72.7 W, 10.5 B, 13.9 H
46.2 Obama
Open; southern Space coast, inner rurals. Tom Rooney (R-Tequesta) may rather run here than in his home district, the 38th. Safe R
32
VAP: 81.8 W, 5.6 B, 9.9 H
48.7 Obama
Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) lives here. Almost two points more blue than his current district, Buchanan could be vulnerable. Lean R
33
VAP: 89.9 W
47.3 Obama
Open; ladies and gentlemen, the whitest district in all of Florida. North Port and Port Charlotte. Likely R
34
VAP: 83.1 W, 10.8 H
43.9 Obama
Open; Cape Coral and North Fort Myers and a small part of Fort Myers. Safe R
35
VAP: 73.1 W, 7.7 B, 16.5 H
44.7 Obama
Open; Connie Mack IV is running for Senate. Fort Myers, Fort Myers Beach, Fort Myers Shores (sensing a theme?) and San Carlos Park. Safe R
37
VAP: 70.6 W, 13.6 B, 13 H
52.7 Obama
Open; St. Lucie County and part of Martin County. The Treasure Coast, gotta love all these coast names. Lean D
Palm Beach and Broward Counties
Here is where the districts on the current congressional map get really fucked up. There's barely any crossover between congressmember's homes and their territory starting here, I'm not even sure I want to try.
38
VAP: 73.2 W, 6.1 B, 18 H
50.2 Obama
Open; Treasure Coast into the Gold Coast. Swing
39
VAP: 35.8 W, 43.3 B, 16.4 H
76 Obama
Open; plurality black. West Palm Beach and Broward Counties, cities of West Palm Beach and Sunrise. Safe D, likely black pickup
40
VAP: 57.1 W, 15.2 B, 23.2 H
62.4 Obama
Open; Wellington, Royal Palm Beach and Boynton Beach. Safe D
41
VAP: 79.6 W, 8.8 B, 8.6 H
62.7 Obama
Ted Deutch (D-Boca Raton) lives here. Boca Raton and Delray Beach. Probably heavily Jewish. Safe D
42
VAP: 31.2 W, 43.9 B, 20.4 H
81 Obama
Open; plurality black. Broward County, overlap with a lot of cities. Safe D, likely black pickup
43
VAP: 61.8 W, 12.4 B, 19.6 H
63.6 Obama
Open. Coral Springs and Coconut Creek. Another heavily Jewish area. Safe D
44
VAP: 69.1 W, 10 B, 17.5 H
58.8 Obama
Open. Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Oakland Park, etc. Another Jewish district. Safe D
47
VAP: 52.8 W, 9.8 B, 31.3 H
60.1 Obama
DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) and Allen West (R-Plantation) both live here; Wasserman Schultz may vacate to a district with more of her Jewish constituency. West is toast here. Maybe an opening for a Hispanic in the Democratic primary? Safe D, Hispanic opportunity if open.
Miami
36
VAP: 66 W, 5.8 B, 26.1 H
39.1 Obama
Open. From Collier County to the Cuban areas of Miami. Safe R
45
VAP: 13.1 W, 53.6 B, 28.8 H
86 Obama
Alcee Hastings (D-Miramar) and Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) both live here. Hastings probably relocates to the 39th, there's more of his territory there. Black majority. Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, North Miami Beach, etc. Safe D, black hold
46
VAP: 9.3 W, 48.7 B, 38.9 H
84.9 Obama
Open; black plurality. North Miami, Gladeview, Pinewood Park, etc. This takes in the Haitian community and what I believe to be Democratic-leaning Cubans. This district would probably elect the nation's first Haitian-American congressman. Safe D, black/Haitian pickup
48
VAP: 14.1 W, 5.2 B, 77.6 H
48.5 Obama
Open; Hialeah Gardens, Miami Lakes, etc. Of the Cuban-majority districts, probably the best opportunity for a Democrat. Maybe Joe Garcia wants to give it another try? Lean R
49
VAP: 91.9 H
39.5 Obama
Open; Hialeah, Fountainbleu and Westchester. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario Diaz-Balart and David Rivera all claim Miami as their residence, so I have no idea which one would have a claim on this district, but one of them would definitely run here. Probably Diaz-Balart. Safe R
50
VAP: 36.3 W, 56.4 H
60.3 Obama
Open; Hispanic majority. Doing this map, it shocks me that Florida has yet to elect a Democratic Hispanic member to Congress. I think this map fixes that, a Hispanic Democrat is almost certain to win. And since it's based in Miami Beach, maybe we could get someone fabulous? Safe D, Hispanic pickup
51
VAP: 10.5 W, 86.7 H
38.1 Obama
Hispanic (Cuban) majority. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen may live here, and she'd lay claim to this district. David Rivera may get shut out, shoved out of the two safely Republican Cuban districts and unlikely to win in the other (48th) in a year not named "2010". If he ran in the 48th, it may even drive it into Democratic hands. So run, congressman, run! Safe R
52
VAP: 26.5 W, 12.1 B, 57 H
58.4 Obama
Open; Hispanic majority. Miami and into the southern suburbs. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
53
VAP: 29.1 W, 12.3 B, 55.8 H
57.8 Obama
Open; Hispanic majority. Southern Miami suburbs and the Keys. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
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So, from a current delegation of 6-19, and at best a 2-3 seat gain from redistricting, to a map that is, by my count, 21-24-8. which would go to 21-23-9 if David Rivera runs in the 48th. This includes 6 black districts, 3 of which are pickups, and Brown, Hastings and Wilson returning. There's also one black opportunity district in Tallahassee. There are also 3 Hispanic majority districts (not counting the 3 Cuban-majority districts), and 4 Hispanic opportunity districts. You see, compactness actually does help us when the numbers are big enough, haha. Especially when you undo the ridiculous gerrymandering in the Miami area. Assuming Rivera runs for the 48th, this brings the House so far to 122-108-28
Please let me know what you think!