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Leading Off:
• TX Redistricting: Could Redistmas come twice in the Lone Star State? Perhaps the Grinch has reformed: Cameron Joseph at The Hill reports that defendants (i.e., Republicans) in Texas's redistricting litigation are in serious settlement talks with plaintiffs (Democrats and minority groups) and may be ready to give up store rather than suffer a legal rout. Obviously any discussions about what a settlement might possibly look like are extremely hazy, tentative, and subject to change, but the unnamed plaintiffs who spoke to Joseph sounded very positive, and he says that the outcome "would likely mean at least four more Texas Democrats in Congress as of next year." And what's remarkable is how little Republicans are apparently hoping for in exchange:
In exchange for a map that would give minorities and Democrats what they want, the agreement would allow Republicans to keep the state’s primary on April 3, saving the state money and making it more likely its presidential primary will be early enough to matter. Texas has already had to move its primary back once because of the ongoing court cases. They would also avoid having two federal courts label their plans intentionally discriminatory.
An assistant attorney general stresses, though, that any deal would only apply to interim maps for use in this year's elections, so we're not talking a permanent settlement. Anyhow, fingers crossed, but don't get your hopes up just yet.
4Q Fundraising:
• CT-Sen: Susan Bysiewicz (D): $273K raised, $890K cash-on-hand
• IN-Sen: Richard Mourdock (R): $386K raised
• ND-AL: Bette Grande (R): $26K raised
• ND-Sen: Heidi Heitkamp (D): $500K (in seven weeks)
• NE-Sen: Deb Fischer (R): $67K raised, $208K cash-on-hand
• NJ-Sen: Sen. Bob Menendez (D): $1.5 mil raised, $8.1 mil cash-on-hand
• NM-Sen: Heather Wilson (R): $375K raised, $1.1 mil cash-on-hand
• NY-09: Rep. Bob Turner (R): $76K raised, $71K cash-on-hand
• PA-18: Evan Feinberg (R): $50K raised, $40K cash-on-hand
Senate:
• FL-Sen (PDF): It's been hard to get a read on the Florida Senate race in the last few months, with Quinnipiac repeatedly telling us it's a dead heat between Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson and likely Republican nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV (41-40 for Nelson several weeks ago), but with PPP telling us it's a double-digit spread in Nelson's favor (46-35 in December). I've been eager to see a tie-breaker, and now we've got one, from Suffolk, who seem to point in PPP's direction. They too find a double-digit lead for Nelson, 42-32.
Two things keep us from calling this an open and shut case, though: one, 25% undecided seems kind of high given the well-known participants, and two, Suffolk's take on the presidential election (47-42 in favor of Mitt Romney) is much darker for Democrats than that of Quinnipiac (who saw a 45-45 Obama/Romney tie in their last poll, but who also insist that FL-Sen is close). If you're interested in how Nelson fares against the warmed-over leftovers in the GOP field, he beats Mike McCalister 45-26, Adam Hasner 47-23, and George LeMieux 46-22. (David Jarman)
• IL-Sen: An update on the health of GOP Sen. Mark Kirk: Surgeons "removed two small pieces of brain tissue destroyed by the stroke." Apparently, the "procedure is common and is meant to create more space around the brain to accommodate expected swelling." Doctors previously removed a 4x8-inch piece of Kirk's skull. Kirk's neurosurgeon says the senator is "alert, responsive and gave a thumbs up on request."
Kirk's office also released a statement on Friday:
"Senator Kirk is doing quite well this morning. He is alert, responding more rapidly to questions and the swelling in his brain has stabilized. While he remains in serious but stable condition, we are pleased with his continued progress,” said Richard Fessler, MD, PhD, neurosurgeon at Northwestern Memorial Hospital and professor of neurological surgery at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine.
Gubernatorial:
• MO-Gov: You all know how pundit Michael Kinsley once famously defined a "gaffe," right? He said: "A gaffe is when a politician tells the truth." Well, this—from Republican gubernatorial candidate Dave Spence—certainly qualifies:
Last week on KSGF radio, in between comments disparaging the stimulus "gravy train," Spence is caught suggesting that the program worked.
"And it saved our bacon to tell you the truth. However, that's over," he said.
Doesn't he know that the stimulus represented out-of-control, wasteful government spending? That's right out of the wingnut hymnal! Something tells me that Spence might not exactly be a member in good standing of the conservative tribe.
• NC-Gov: Though an unnamed aide said Democratic ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge was interested in the newly-open governor's race, we didn't have any public statements from him, until now. Roll Call's Joshua Miller talked to Etheridge and learned this:
Asked if he was leaning more towards a run for governor than seeking a return to Congress, given that he would have a stronger hand in Tar Heel State educational policy from the governor’s mansion, Etheridge paused for a moment.
“A lot of truth in that,” he said.
Etheridge, you'll recall, confirmed last month that he's considering a rematch against the woman who beat him in 2010, GOP freshman Renee Ellmers, but as you can see, it now sounds like he's more interested in the gubernatorial race. For a complete list of who else is in, out, and considering, click here.
• TX-Gov: Leading off their batch of Texas miscellany, PPP has some re-elect numbers for GOP Gov. Rick Perry, who said—after his presidential campaign crashed and burned and then burned some more—he was thinking about seeking re-election to another term. (He also said he might run for president again, so he may just be crazy.) Anyhow, only 32% say they'd vote for Perry again while 62% want someone new. But as Tom points out, 56% of Republicans prefer Perry, which could offer us the best of all worlds: The GOP renominates him, but the rest of the electorate wants to get rid of him—in the general.
• WI-Gov: It doesn't sound too likely, but Dem Rep. Ron Kind still isn't ruling out a run in the gubernatorial recall election, though he did promise to "make a decision in a little bit." (He did, of course, choose not to run for Senate, so read that however you like.) Incidentally, Wisconsin's Government Accountability Board said that the earliest that recalls might go forward would be the end of June.
• WV-Gov: As expected, Republican businessman Bill Maloney announced on Thursday that he'd seek a rematch against Gov. Earl Tomblin. This sets up Republicans to run retreads in both major statewide races this fall: Maloney-Tomblin is a repeat of last year's special election, and in the Senate race, businessman John Raese will face off against Dem Sen. Joe Manchin, just as he did in 2010. In both prior cases, of course, the Republicans lost.
House:
• AZ-01: Democrat Wenona Benally Baldenegro just received the endorsement of a local branch of AFSCME, but as commenters pointed out, it's based in Tucson, which is mostly split between the 2nd and 3rd CDs. The 1st at most covers some of the northern suburbs.
• AZ-08: Republican Jesse Kelly is out with a poll from TelOpinion Research that shows him leading the GOP primary in the special election for Gabby Giffords' seat. Kelly gets 35, while state Sen. Frank Antenori is at 15 and broadcaster Dave Sitton is at 7. Kelly, incidentally, hasn't formally declared for the race (though he filed paperwork with the FEC and a spokesman says an announcement may come this week).
Antenori just did, though, on Friday, making him the first person on either side of the aisle to jump in. This will be Antenori's second shot at the seat: In 2006, when the 8th became open because Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe retired, he lost the GOP primary to nutbag Randy Graf, a candidate so extreme and hopeless that the NRCC gave up any pretense of defending this seat. It was ultimately. won that year by, of course, Gabby Giffords.
• NC-06: Howard Coble rides again! The 80-year-old Republican congressman says that, despite recent health issues and a heavily reconfigured district, he'll run for re-election to a 15th term. But much like another octogenarian GOPer who also wound up with a very different seat after redistricting—Maryland's Roscoe Bartlett—Coble may yet face a challenge from members of his own party. Just the other day, Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow said he was considering a run, and others may follow suit. The big difference between this race and fight in Maryland's 6th, though, is that whoever wins the Republican primary is almost a lock to win in November, too.
• NJ-05: Bummer: Assemblywoman Connie Wagner, who said she was "seriously considering" the race earlier this month, now says she won't take on GOP Rep. Scott Garrett this fall. We're still waiting on several other Democratic names to decide, though: state Sen. Bob Gordon, Passaic County Freeholder Director Terry Duffy, and New York Giants legend Harry Carson. (Ooh, how about an announcement right after the Giants win the Super Bowl?) Teaneck Deputy Mayor Adam Gussen is already in the race.
• TN-08: I don't think state Sen. Roy Herron's name had come up this cycle for a repeat bid for Congress, but in any event, it's not happening—indeed, he isn't even seeking re-election to the state Senate. Herron, you'll recall, ran in TN-08 last cycle after Dem Rep. John Tanner announced his retirement. In any other year, he would have been a good fit for this district, but since it was 2010, he lost badly to Republican Stephen Fincher, 59-39.
• WV-02: West Virginia's filing deadline was on Saturday, though the only real suspense was whether GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito would run for statewide office, either senator or governor. Neither of those moves ever seemed at all likely, though, so quite predictably, Capito has filed to seek re-election for a seventh term.
Other Races:
• VA-LG: White House Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra (the first person to hold that position) is leaving his current post and, according to the Washington Post, will run for lieutenant governor in Virginia (which is up for election in 2013). The WaPo also takes stock of other folks the Great Mentioner has mentioned. On the Dem side, former House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong (who lost his re-election bid last November), state Sen. Ralph Northam, and Del. Kenny Alexander are all on the list. GOP names include Prince William Board of County Supervisors chair Corey Stewart, businessman Keith Fimian, and state Sens. Mark Obenshain and Jeff McWaters.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics (PDF): In case you need any reminders about how instrumental unions are at creating Democratic voters and getting them out to vote, check out the new annual numbers just out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on percentages of union membership among the various states. See a certain correlation between union membership and electoral performance? The 10 states with the highest union density are New York, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Michigan, Rhode Island, California, Oregon, Connecticut, and Illinois. The 10 with the lowest are North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Mississippi, Idaho, and South Dakota. (David Jarman)
• Minnesota: In their Minnesota odds-and-ends, PPP finds improving job approvals for Dem Gov. Mark Dayton (53-34 vs. 51-38 in May). That makes him the eighth-most popular governor they've tested, and I think there's something to be said for having a wildly conservative and deeply unpopular legislature as a foil. (Republican legislators get an abysmal 23-62 approval rating.) This probably also explains why Dems lead on the generic legislative ballot, 48-39, though that's essentially unchanged from May's 49-40 spread (PDF).
The news on the marriage equality front is more disappointing. The constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage that will appear on the ballot this November currently is favored by a 48-44 margin. That represents a retreat from May, which found 47-46 against. While the change isn't huge, it's worrisome that Democrats improved across the board while the marriage amendment numbers went backwards.
• New York: Due to repeated failures to comply with the federal MOVE Act—which requires that ballots be sent to overseas voters at least 45 days before an election—a federal judge has forcibly moved New York's primary from September 11 to June 26. Note that this applies only to federal races, though it's a permanent change. (Primaries will be held on the fourth Tuesday in June in the future.) If the legislature doesn't act to move the date for local primaries, though, New York will be in the ridiculous position of having to stage two separate primary elections not just this year, but in every even-numbered year from now until the last syllable of recorded time.
In any event, I think this is great news. I've always hated late primaries because they provide too much protection for incumbents. Under the old regime, challengers had less than two months to wage a general election battle, often after bruising primaries. So this is a big improvement not only because it brings New York into compliance with the MOVE Act, but because it creates a fairer system.
• Super PACs: The Wall Street Journal has a cool interactive site where they're trying to track all super PAC spending this election cycle.
Redistricting Roundup:
• CA Redistricting: A very big win for Democrats: The California Supreme Court just ruled that the new state Senate map put in place by California's redistricting commission will be used for this November's elections as interim maps, regardless of whether a Republican-backed referendum gets on the ballot. The new lines give Dems a strong chance of gaining super-majority status in the Senate, a crucial goal because a small minority of GOPers has long blocked any attempts to increase revenues, which the state badly needs.
• NY Redistricting: PolitickerNY's Colin Campbell and Hunter Walker have a slideshow of the 20 most egregiously gerrymandered districts from the abomination that is New York's proposed new state Senate map. The collection starts off with a bang: "Man Peeing on Miniature Turkey" (SD-37), but I'm not sure you can beat "A Baby Alien Popping Out of a Stomach" (SD-12).
• TX Redistricting: Check out this amazing cross-examination in the Texas preclearance lawsuit by my old law school Prof. Gerry Hebert:
The state's expert witness, John Alford of Rice University, was on the stand to defend the districts drawn by the Texas Legislature for the Texas House, Texas Senate and U.S. House under the Voting Rights Act.
Alford surprised Davis' attorney during questioning by agreeing that the reconfiguration of Davis' District 10 into four parts hurt minority voters and turned back the clock on the ability of blacks and Hispanics to vote for a candidate they prefer.
Davis' attorney, Gerry Hebert, asked Alford, "In 2008, black and Latino voters in District 10 demonstrated the ability to elect the candidate of their choice?"
Alford replied "yes" and that the candidate was Davis.
"Would you agree," Hebert continued, "that under the state's proposed plan that the ability of minority voters in District 10 to elect the preferred candidate was retrogressed?"
"Gerry," Alford said, "I couldn't agree with you more."
Like a Perry Mason moment—in a redistricting case! Just a little reminder had already cracked out of turn once before, in the San Antonio case. (Scroll down to the very last item at the link.) So how does this kind of thing happen? Speaking as someone who has worked with expert witnesses in the past (albeit in a different area of law), I'll tell you that it can be a very difficult process—but something this stark should never have happened. When you set out to hire an expert, the first thing you do (after learning about his or her qualifications) is to find out whether they agree with your view of the case. Obviously no one wants an expert who doesn't! Now, there are some tricky things to negotiate regarding the concept of legal privilege that I won't get into here, but this is just basic due diligence.
It's possible that the GOP failed at this most basic step, but assuming that Alford originally told them what they wanted to hear, what the hell happened? Well, sometimes experts are just a pain in the ass. They change their mind, they say they didn't understand what you meant the first time, they think they're smarter than you, and so forth. Some are simply very difficult to coach on the witness stand. (Here's one funny story I once heard.) So you get a guy like Alford who is capable of seriously departing from the company line and you can get seriously hosed. Sucks for Republicans!
You're probably wondering why they stuck with him, though, after the debacle in San Antonio. The answer is very likely that the deadline for declaring expert witnesses in the DC case had already passed—past a certain point, you're not allowed to change experts in mid-stream. (Though I'm sure every litigator has badly wished they could on at least one occasion!) But one thing is for sure: I can't see how Republicans anywhere would ever hire Alford again. And given his penchant for straying, I'd advise Democrats against doing so as well. We just happened to get lucky this time.