Former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland
Leading Off:
• OH-Sen: Former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland recently made an offhanded comment about not ruling out a challenge to Republican Sen. Rob Portman, and it looks like he actually is seriously considering a campaign. In an interview with the Northeast Ohio Media Group, Strickland said that he plans to make a decision "Certainly within the next two or three months." Strickland acknowledged that he would be 75 on Election Day, which is pretty late to start a career in the seniority-dominated Senate, but said that his health is good.
Strickland would be a good get for Team Blue if he makes the jump. He only narrowly lost re-election in the hell year of 2010, and he still has a good appeal with the rural eastern Ohio voters who have largely abandoned the Democratic Party in recent years. Other potential candidates include outgoing Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, Rep. Tim Ryan, and Cincinnati Councilmember P.G. Sittenfeld. Strickland spoke well of all three, adding that Ryan is one of his "nearest, dearest friends."
Senate:
• LA-Sen: No one is really sure what will happen to this Senate seat when it's up in 2016. Incumbent Republican David Vitter is running for governor in 2015, and he starts out as the clear but not invincible frontrunner. If Vitter wins, it's likely that he'll appoint his successor rather than allow intra-party rival and outgoing Gov. Bobby Jindal to do it. It's an open question if Vitter would pick a caretaker who would immediately step aside, or if he'll want to choose someone who would run for the full term. And of course if Vitter loses his gubernatorial bid, that sets off another whole batch of questions. This is truly a Schrodinger's Senate seat, with no one knowing if it'll be open or not, much less who will be running.
One prominent Republican is already taking steps to suck up to David Vitter get his name out there. Rep. John Fleming told Roll Call that he would be very interested in a Senate appointment so he could continue Vitter's conservative record in the Senate. Fleming contemplated running against Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in 2014 but he ended up deferring to eventual winner Bill Cassidy. It's likely that behind the scenes, GOP leaders like Vitter who were looking to help Cassidy pressured Fleming to stay out. By making his interest known early, the congressman may be hoping to avoid a similar fate.
As Alexis Levinson points out, Louisiana state law requires a special election will be held if a Senate seat is vacated with more than a year left in the term. This probably won't be an issue though. Vitter's term will expire Jan. 3, 2017, while Jindal will be termed out Jan. 11, 2016. As long as Vitter stays in office long enough to ensure that he gets to select the new senator, his pick won't need to face the voters until November of 2016.
• NC-Sen: PPP takes a look at their home state, and finds that Republican Sen. Richard Burr starts out with a small but hardly dominant lead for re-election. In a hypothetical contest with outgoing Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, Burr leads 46-43. Hagan hasn't said much about her future plans since her defeat last month, but she didn't rule out a 2016 comeback bid.
Burr isn't exactly Mr. Popularity, sporting an underwater 31-36. However, the rough 2014 campaign seems to have done a number on Hagan: She posts a 39-52 job approval. Hagan is a formidable candidate, keeping her re-election race close even in the face of a Republican wave. A bit of time away from Washington may also cool some of the anger toward her if she runs again. Still, that poor job approval rating is definitely a concern.
PPP tested a few other hypothetical Democratic candidates against Burr. Against Treasurer Janet Cowell, Burr posts a 44-38 edge. Burr has the same lead against former Charlotte Mayor and current U.S. Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx. Foxx doesn't seem incredibly interested in a Senate race, so this probably won't go too far. Cowell has been mentioned has a potential candidate, though she doesn't appear to have said anything about her level of interest. Unlike Hagan, Foxx and Cowell are largely unknown to voters right now, and it would be a mistake to assume that they would be weaker candidates simply because they poll worse nearly two years away from Election Day.
North Carolina is a very polarized state but slightly red-leaning state, and neither party can take it for granted. Burr is no pushover but he's far from invincible, and Democrats will definitely be looking to put his seat in play. We'll see in the coming months who Democrats recruit to take him on.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Since her Senate bid ended in defeat last month, Democratic Secretary of State Alison Grimes has been quiet about her future plans. However, Sam Youngman of the Lexington Herald-Leader reports that several Kentucky Democrats are taking the idea of her running for governor in 2015 seriously. Attorney General Jack Conway (who lost his own 2010 Senate campaign) has been in the race for months and has had the Democratic field to himself, but Grimes is well known enough to at least make him work for the nomination. The filing deadline for the May 19 primary is Jan. 27, so Grimes doesn't have too long to decide.
• LA-Gov, Sen: There's been some speculation that Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, who lost her post on Saturday, may be interested in a 2015 bid for governor or a 2016 campaign for the state's other Senate seat. However, Landrieu herself seemed to rule it out on Wednesday, memorably proclaiming, "Oh Lord, no" when asked about it. Landrieu did add she wasn't giving a definite no, but "it is highly, highly unlikely." She doesn't sound completely done with politics though, saying she wants to help her party recover in the Deep South.
• NC-Gov: The Tar Heel State is one of a few states that will host a 2016 gubernatorial contest, and both parties very badly want a win here. Gov. Pat McCrory's conservative policies have divided North Carolina, inflaming plenty of voters while delighting fellow Republicans. Democrats will be looking to unseat him, but McCrory and his wealthy allies will be pulling out all the stops to keep him in office.
PPP takes a look at the unfolding contest and finds mixed news for McCrory. On the one hand he's not popular, sporting an underwater 41-46 job approval rating. However, McCrory leads his most likely challenger, Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, by a 46-39 margin. Cooper hasn't declared his candidacy but he's made no secret about his intentions. Despite spending 14 years as state attorney general Cooper is largely unknown to voters, with a 26-26 favorable rating. However, Cooper polls better than Treasurer Janet Cowell and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, who each trail by double digits.
We're almost two years away from Election Day, and it's a good bet these margins will change once voters start paying attention. This poll does confirm that McCrory isn't popular enough to lock up re-election, but he's far from hated enough to be a sure loser. It's also possible that Cooper's lack of name recognition is holding him back, though Republicans will do everything they can to make sure that voters do not get a good first impression of their attorney general. Both parties should expect a competitive and very expensive contest here, but McCrory does seem to start out with at least a small edge.
• PA-Gov: Former state EPA head John Hanger's gubernatorial campaign never went anywhere, and he dropped out of the Democratic primary in February. However, his campaign wasn't in vain: Gov.-elect Tom Wolf announced on Wednesday that Hanger would join his administration as secretary of planning and policy. Wolf had previously brought aboard another former primary rival, Katie McGinty, as his chief of staff. However, third place finisher Rob McCord probably shouldn't hold his breath waiting for a job offer.
House:
• CA-52: So you just lost a high-profile election, but want to stay in politics: What do you do? Start a super PAC of course! Republican Carl DeMaio did just that, forming a group called "New Generation Leadership Fund."
Last month DeMaio fell 3 points short of unseating Democratic Rep. Scott Peters in a San Diego-area swing seat. DeMaio spent the last weeks of the campaign defending himself after a former aide accused him of sexual harassment. Nothing was ever proven, but it's a good bet that the story played a role in DeMaio's defeat. If DeMaio wants another shot at elected office, he'll want to put this whole mess behind him, and starting this super PAC may be the first step. For his part, DeMaio hasn't said one way or another if he's hoping to run again.
• GA-01: There are worst ways to leave Congress.
Other Races:
• Philadelphia Mayor: The Democratic primary field has been slow to take shape, but we can cross one potential name off the list. State Rep. Dwight Evans had been contemplating a bid, but on Tuesday he announced he wouldn't jump in. An internal poll for Evans showed him trailing only former District Attorney Lynne Abraham, but evidently he wasn't convinced that he was positioned to win.
Besides Abraham, the primary field consists of former Redevelopment Authority executive Terry Gillen, former City Solicitor Ken Trujillo, and state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams. The filing deadline for the May 19 primary isn't until March 10, so there's still time for more candidates to declare. The Democratic primary winner is expected to easily prevail in November.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: On Wednesday, Republican Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka passed away at the age of 70 after suffering a stroke.
Topinka had a long career in state politics as a moderate Republican, first being elected to the state House in 1980 and later serving as state treasurer. Topinka was her party's 2006 gubernatorial nominee, losing to Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich 50-39. However, their fortunes soon reversed: Blagojevich was removed from office and went to prison, while Topinka was easily elected comptroller in 2010. Last month Topinka turned back a challenge from Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon by a 50-46 margin. Topinka was also one of the most-quotable politicians in Illinois, and The State Journal-Register has a collection of her best quips.
It's unclear what will happen to the comptroller's position. By law, outgoing Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn will appoint Topinka's successor. However, it remains to be seen if Quinn's appointment would last only until Topinka's first term expires in January, or if it would extend throughout what would have been her second four-year term. If it's the latter, Republican Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner will be able to choose a new comptroller after he's sworn in next month.
• DSCC, NRSC: The 2014 campaign left both Senate committees in debt, but it really did a number on Team Blue. The DSCC is currently $20.4 million in the red, a figure Politico describes as an "atypically high figure." By contrast, the NRSC is "only" $9 million in debt. As of Nov. 24, the NRSC also holds a $3 million to $2.2 million cash-on-hand lead over the Democrats. The DSCC's figure helps explain why the party did not spend any real money defending Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu during her runoff, though they probably would have found some way to help her if they felt she could have won.
• Special Elections: Two legislative specials were held on Tuesday, and Johnny Longtorso gives us a rundown:
California SD-35 - Democrat Isadore Hall won with 55 percent of the vote here, eliminating the need for a runoff. Republican James Spencer came in second with 26 percent, while the other two Democrats split the remaining vote.
Virginia HD-04 - No surprises here, as Republican Todd Pillion defeated Democrat Donnie Rife by a 66-34 margin.
California state Sen.-elect Isadore Hall III ran for CA-44 during the 2012 cycle. However, Hall dropped out in December and
later endorsed Janice Hahn in her successful incumbent versus incumbent battle with fellow Democrat Laura Richardson. Hall is only 43 and it's likely that we'll hear from him again.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.