Republican Rep. and convicted felon Michael Grimm
Leading Off:
• NY-11: Last week, Republican Rep. Michael Grimm plead guilty to tax fraud, but refused to resign from his Staten Island seat. The House Republican leadership wasn't putting much public pressure on the congressman to depart, and it looked like he would be able to stay put. However, that seems to have changed. On Monday night, both The New York Daily News and Politico reported that Grimm will resign, and the congressman himself confirmed that he'll leave Jan. 5.
Grimm's departure will set off a special election. Obama won this seat 52-47, and both parties are expected to compete for it. However, local events could give the GOP an edge here. Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio was never popular in Staten Island, losing the borough 53-44 even as he was winning 73-24 citywide. The recent unrest following the death of Eric Garner and the murder of two NYPD officers is unlikely to improve his status here. The special will not be held for several months and things can change, but Team Red will probably start out with an advantage.
Under New York special election law, the county parties will select their nominees. In recent days, attention has turned to a trio of Republicans: Richmond County District Attorney Dan Donovan, state Sen. Andrew Lanza, and state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis. Donovan and Malliotakis especially are considered rising stars, but Malliotakis' reportedly poor relationship with the local party could keep her from getting picked. By contrast, Donovan has good ties to Staten Island's Republican establishment, and The Observer's Ross Barkan reports that he's quickly emerged as the frontrunner for the nomination. Former Rep. Vito Fossella's name has also been touted, though it's unclear how interested he actually is. Fossella retired from the House in 2008 after voters learned about his secret family, and he still has a tense relationship with plenty in the party.
On the Democratic side, both former Rep. Michael McMahon and Assemblyman Michael Cusick have expressed interest in jumping in. McMahon held this seat for one term, but narrowly lost to Grimm in the 2010 red wave. Cusick himself deferred to McMahon back in 2008 and it's unclear if he'll be willing to do it again if the former congressman runs.
Events are moving quickly here and it's going to be a while before everything settles, but we'll be watching this special election very closely.
Senate:
• CA-Sen, Gov: With Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer looking likely to retire, there is no shortage of Democrats who could run to succeed her. However, it doesn't sound like former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa will be one of them. Villaraigosa didn't outright rule out a Senate bid, but he sounds like he has his heart set on the governor's office instead. In the past Villaraigosa has not been secretive about his gubernatorial ambitions and he recently declared, "Having been a legislator and a mayor, I particularly enjoy being a chief executive." Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown will be termed out in 2018, and it would be a big surprise if Villaraigosa doesn't try to replace him.
• NC-Sen: Democrats are planning to take on Republican Sen. Richard Burr, and Roll Call gives us some of Team Blue's potential candidates. Unsurprisingly, outgoing Sen. Kay Hagan is at the top of the list. While Hagan lost her seat last month, she kept things very close in an incredibly brutal environment and even her opponents had to respect her campaign. For her part, Hagan did not rule out a comeback bid earlier this month. Treasurer Janet Cowell has been repeatedly mentioned as a possible Senate contender, though Cowell has been pretty silent about her 2016 plans. Transportation Secretary and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx is also noted, but he doesn't seem interested.
Roll Call also gives us some new names, and the most familiar is retiring Rep. Mike McIntyre. McIntyre managed to pull off a narrow re-election victory against David Rouzer in 2012 even as Romney was taking his seat 59-40, so there's no question he's battle hardened. However, McIntyre called it quits in 2014 rather than face Rouzer again, so it's unclear if he has another tough campaign in him. McIntyre also has a conservative voting record, which could cause him problems in a primary.
Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham and state Rep. Grier Martin also earned a mention. Cunningham ran for this seat in 2010, and national Democrats openly favored him over Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. However, Marshall won the primary runoff 60-40. Martin, who like Cunningham is a veteran, was recruited in 2008 but passed; he also declined to run in 2010. Back in those years Democrats ran the show in the North Carolina House, and Martin may be more interested in going statewide now that he's stuck in the minority.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Last month, Kentucky Supreme Court Justice Will Scott acknowledged that he was interested in seeking the Republican nomination for governor, and would decide by "early January." It looks like Scott is going for it: On Monday, he announced he would resign from the court, effective Friday.
Scott did not give a reason for resigning, but it's hard to believe he'd give up his post and not run for governor. Agriculture Commissioner James Comer and former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner are already seeking the GOP nod. The filing deadline is Jan. 27, so other potential candidates don't have long to decide whether or not to run. Attorney General Jack Conway currently has the Democratic field to himself.
House:
• FL-02: Rep.-elect Gwen Graham was one of the few Democratic bright spots last month, with her unseating Republican Rep. Steve Southerland in a Romney 52-47 seat. The GOP is expected to target Graham next cycle, and they don't lack candidates in this Panhandle seat. Roll Call's Alexis Levinson reports that local Republicans are already touting state Reps. Marti Coley and Matt Gaetz.
Levinson also notes that Graham's already conservative seat may get even more hostile for her when 2016 rolls around. The state Supreme Court is expected to rule on a redistricting lawsuit, and it's possible that a new map could cost Graham some of Democratic-friendly Tallahassee. The bluest parts of the Panhandle are already in this district, and it's hard to see redistricting making this seat any more favorable for Democrats. National Democrats are hoping to convince Graham to run for Marco Rubio's Senate seat in 2016, and right now she sounds very reluctant to make the jump. However, if her seat is drawn out from under her, she may be a lot more willing to go statewide.
Other Races:
• MN State Senate: Over at the Pioneer Press, David Montgomery (whose reporting of South Dakota's crazy 2014 Senate race was indispensable) offers up some awesome interactive maps of the Minnesota Senate. Montgomery takes a look at what senators hold Obama and Romney seats, and who may be vulnerable when the chamber is next up in 2016.
Over at DKE, Stephen Wolf created a similar map that identify where the Obama Republicans and Romney Democrats are. Democrats hold a 39 to 28 majority in the Senate, but as Wolf has noted before, the median seat is four points redder than the state. The GOP recently picked up the state House, and they may have recaptured the Senate if it had been up in 2014. It's likely that they'll try the finish the job in 2016, though Team Red will likely need a favorable political climate to flip the chamber.
• Nashville Mayor: This already-crowded race recently got a bit more packed, with wealthy real-estate executive Bill Freeman launching his campaign. Freeman is capable of self-funding as much as he needs to, and he's likely to emerge as a formidable candidate for this open-seat contest.
Joey Garrison of The Tennessean notes that Freeman is very well connected in state Democratic politics, having served as a major Obama fundraiser in 2012. That could be a big problem for fellow candidates Councilwoman Megan Barry and attorney Charles Robert Bone, who are both counting on support from local Democratic groups. Also running are former Metro Nashville School Board Chairman David Fox, charter school founder Jeremy Kane, and businesswoman Linda Rebrovick. If no one takes a majority in August, there will be a runoff at a later date.
The field has not solidified yet, and we could see some more contenders jump in before the May 21 filing deadline. Davidson County Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry had a very close third-place finish in the 2007 race, and he's considering another campaign. If Gentry did run, he'd start out as the only African American in this contest, and no other serious black candidates appear to be interested.
• San Antonio Mayor: Democratic state Sen. and 2014 lieutenant governor nominee Leticia Van De Putte appears to have scared off plenty of would-be challengers, but departing Bexar County Commissioner Tommy Adkisson is still going for it. On Monday he kicked off his campaign, joining Van De Putte and former Democratic state Rep. Mike Villarreal in the May open-seat contest. Adkisson's last electoral endeavor did not go well, with him losing the Democratic primary for a judgeship by a 57-43 margin earlier this year. We'll see if this one goes better.
• Special Elections: One last election for 2014, via Johnny Longtorso as always:
Iowa SD-12: This is the seat vacated by (sigh) Sen.-elect Joni Ernst, located in the southwestern corner of the state. The Democrats have chosen Steve Adams, who works for Iowa State University's extension and outreach office, while the Republicans have picked state Rep. Mark Costello. Also running is Libertarian Don Brantz, a former Mills County supervisor. At 58-40 Romney, there is not much chance of a win for Democrats here.
Grab Bag:
• Census: The Census Bureau has released its usual year-end population estimates, covering the period between July 2013 and July 2014; as of that period, the U.S. population is up to 318.9 million. The most attention-grabbing bit of information from the new data, though, is that Florida (19.89 million) has finally overtaken New York (19.75 million) to become the nation's third most populous state; also noteworthy, North Carolina (9.94 million) moved past Michigan (9.91 million) to become ninth most populous.
The largest numeric gain in the 2013-2014 period was, as you'd probably guess, in Texas, which gained 451,000 new residents, followed by California, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona. On the other hand, the biggest percentage gain was in one of the least populous states: North Dakota, which gained 2.16 percent (followed by Nevada, Texas, Colorado, and District of Columbia). Six states lost population in the period: Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, Alaska, Vermont, and most of all, West Virginia (which shed 0.18 percent).
Polidata also released its usual year-end analysis of congressional district apportionment, which will happen for real after the 2020 Census. There are two levels of analysis here, the simpler one based only on the 2013-2014 populations. At this point last year, things were pretty quiet, with only Minnesota losing a seat and North Carolina gaining one; now, we've added another duo, with the MN/NC swap still there, but also Pennsylvania losing a seat and Texas gaining one. Close to the cusp are potential gains for California and Oregon, and potential losses for Illinois and Michigan.
They also have 2020 scenarios, based on the assumption that current rates of growth/loss continue. Under these conditions, Texas would gain three in 2020, while Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Oregon would gain one; Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia would all lose one.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.