Retiring Minnesota GOP Rep. John Kline
On Thursday, GOP Rep. John Kline announced that he
would not seek re-election to his swingy suburban Twin Cities seat. Obama
narrowly won Minnesota's 2nd District 49.1 to 49.0, but Kline has always pulled off decisive victories here ever since he was first elected in 2002. This is exactly the type of seat that Democrats need to capture if they want any chance at returning to the majority, and the fight for district is going to get a lot more interesting now that Kline is departing.
Team Blue had two viable candidates running here even before Kline made his announcement. Former healthcare executive Angie Craig brought in an impressive $327,000 from April to June; physician Mary Lawrence only raised $113,000 from donors but she threw in $500,000 of her own money, giving her a $1,045,000 to $231,000 cash-on-hand lead over Craig. Kline's departure may also inspire other Democrats to take a look at this seat.
The GOP has a good bench in this part of Minnesota, and they shouldn't have a hard time finding a willing candidate ready to go here. No matter what, though, this race will be hotly contested: In addition to Obama's narrow win here in 2012, Democratic Sen. Al Franken carried the 2nd by a narrow 48.7 to 47.7 margin, even as he was winning 53.2 to 42.9 statewide last year. And while Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton also won a clear 50.1 to 44.5 statewide win, he lost the 2nd 49.1 to 45.9, so both parties can compete here.
But an open seat with presidential turnout gives Democrats their best chance at a pickup in this district in ages, and this will be a contest to watch.
1:59 PM PT: On the Democratic side, state Rep. Joe Atkins has confirmed his interest and says he expects to decide next week. Atkins, who turned down this race in 2012, has pulled off decisive wins in his 52.9 to 45.4 Obama seat, including a 64.5 to 35.4 victory during last year's GOP wave. However, Craig unveiled an endorsement from the United Steelworkers hours after Kline made his announcement.
There are a multitude of candidates who are considering on the GOP side, and the Pioneer Press's Rachel Stassen-Berger is doing some stellar work by putting a continuously-updated Google Doc tracking who's in, out, and who's a maybe for both parties. State Reps. Tony Albright and Steve Drazkowski are openly considering, while state Sen. Eric Pratt and 2012 U.S. Senate nominee Kurt Bills haven't ruled anything out. (Bills lost to Amy Klobuchar 65.2-30.5, so Team Red won't be devastated if he sits it out.) The Star-Tribune's Michael Brodkorb also says that GOP activists are touting state Sen. Dave Thompson, though there's no word on how interested Thompson is.
And over at Roll Call, Emily Cahn plays Great Mentioner for a few other Republicans. GOP operatives name ex-state Sen. Ted Daley, 2014 Senate nominee Mike McFadden, state Rep. Rod Hamilton, 2012 and 2014 primary candidate David Gerson, and former Judge Mary Pawlenty, the wife of ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty. A few Republicans have said no though, with state Rep. Pat Garofalo memorably declaring that "I would rather stick a fork in my eye than run for Congress." Now that's how you unambiguously rule out a campaign!