GOP Sen. David Vitter
While state Rep. John Bel Edwards looks like a longshot to win this fall's gubernatorial contest in dark red Louisiana, a new poll is arguing that he has what it takes to turn the governor's mansion blue. On behalf of Gumbo PAC, PPP takes a look at a hypothetical Nov. 21 runoff between Edwards and GOP Sen. David Vitter and gives Edwards
a shockingly strong 50-38 lead. Vitter posts a horrible 34-51 favorable rating while Edwards is on positive ground at 35-27.
PPP also finds Edwards competitive against two other Republicans, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle: Edwards is tied 40-40 with Angelle and trails Dardenne just 42-40. But according to this survey, a Vitter-Edwards runoff is the most likely outcome. In the Oct. 24 jungle primary, PPP sees Edwards and Vitter taking the first and second place spots with 28 and 27 percent of the vote respectively, while Angelle and Dardenne are far behind with 15 and 14 percent. Most other polls concur, showing Vitter and Edwards easily advancing to the runoff, but a few have seen Angelle within striking distance of denying one of them a spot in November.
An Edwards victory would be nothing short of miraculous: Louisiana booted three-term Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 56-44 just last year, and Edwards hasn't been raising nearly as much money as any of his GOP foes. But as with any surprise poll, there are a lot of caveats. We haven't seen many runoff polls here in a long time, so there's not much to compare to. In fact, you have to go all the back to June to find such a survey, when Republican pollster MarblePort gave Vitter a 50-38 advantage on Edwards. Gumbo PAC markets itself as a non-partisan anti-Vitter group, but it's run by a former state Democratic Party executive director, so they have an incentive to show that Team Blue is still alive and kicking on the bayou.
One other problem for Edwards is that his positive image with voters is due to the fact that no one's bothered to attack him yet. Right now, Vitter is blasting his two Republican rivals and they've hit back, but the GOP has left Edwards alone. Team Red's contenders believe that they'll have a better shot in a runoff against Edwards than against a fellow Republican, so it's in their collective interest to leave Edwards be for now. But in a November runoff, we can count on the GOP spending big to link Edwards to Obama, who has never been popular in the Pelican State.
One other thing worth looking at is the contrast between the jungle primary numbers and the hypothetical runoffs. In the primary, the three Republicans take a combined 56 percent of the vote while Edwards only reaches 28. But in the head-to-head runoff matchups, Edwards manages to takes at least 40 percent against bother Angelle and Dardenne, and, of course, 50 against Vitter. Why would so many voters express support for Republicans in the primary but go soft in the runoff? There's no good explanation for that. Put another way, if Vitter makes it to the second round, Edwards will need Angelle and Dardenne backers to switch to him instead of staying with the GOP. That'll be extremely difficult.
If Democrats are going to score a win in November, they'll need Edwards to face a damaged Republican. The last few weeks have been dominated by questions about Vitter's 2007 prostitution scandal, so Team Blue may very well get their wish. But Edwards is also going to need to prove that he can do what even the once-formidable Landrieu couldn't do and hold on after the GOP tries to turn the contest into a referendum on national politics. PPP's survey offers a ray of hope, but even if it's accurate now, a lot will change by the runoff.