Kentucky Republican Matt Bevin
Leading Off:
• KY-Gov: Just days ahead of Kentucky's gubernatorial election, GOP pollster Vox Populi released the first survey since June—and just the second one all year—that does not show Republican Matt Bevin losing to Democrat Jack Conway. Vox's poll has the two leading candidates tied at 44 apiece, with independent Drew Curtis at 6.
Election junkies know that there's been precious little polling out of the Bluegrass State, but Conway's led in the last six surveys in a row—including in Bevin's own internal. The only time anyone's actually found Bevin ahead came over four months ago, when PPP, interestingly, put him up 40-38. That was a long time ago, though, and until now, no one had put up any numbers to contradict this string of a half-dozen polls.
But the question is, could Vox be right? It's certainly possible. Last year, as a brand-new firm, Vox performed well, predicting much more success for Republicans than most other outfits. However, was this because they accurately understood the nature of 2014's GOP wave? Or did they naturally lean in the direction of their partisan inclinations and just get lucky? We'll find out on Tuesday.
House:
• FL-02: Over the spring, the NRCC began meeting with Pete Williams, who has occupied a variety of important posts in state government. But Williams never publicly expressed any interest in a House run, even after it became clear that redistricting would turn FL-02 into a safely red seat. And sure enough, Williams has filed to run for state attorney instead. Currently, well-connected physician Neal Dunn and ex-Florida Department of Elder Affairs General Counsel Mary Thomas are the only notable Republicans seeking this North Florida district. We expected several other prominent Republicans to eye this post, but so far, no one else is making any noises about running here.
• FL-09: This year, Michigan's Debbie Dingell became the first House member to succeed her spouse while he was still alive. We're pretty sure that Florida Democrat Dena Minning, who is running for Alan Grayson's open seat, would be the first member to succeed her boyfriend, but she'll need to raise a lot more money first. Minning, a self-described "biotechnology entrepreneur," brought in just $86,000 for the third quarter. State Sen. Darren Soto and former Grayson aide Susannah Randolph both hauled in $170,000 during this period, while ex-state Rep. Ricardo Rangel raised just $19,000. Grayson hasn't endorsed anyone, though he did contribute $5,400 to Minning's campaign.
• IN-03: The race to succeed Marlin Stutzman in this safely red seat only really took off during the third fundraising quarter. State Sen. Jim Banks, a favorite of anti-establishment groups, raised the most money, though his $161,000 haul was far from eye-popping. Wealthy farmer Kip Tom only jumped in during early September, but he raised a comparable $154,000 and did not self-fund. However, Banks holds a $259,000 to $144,000 cash on hand edge.
Two other candidates are running, but their fundraising hasn't caught fire. State Sen. Liz Brown represents more of this seat than Banks, and she released an early poll giving her a clear lead in the primary. However, Brown only brought in $63,000 over the last three months, and she has $147,000 in the bank. Ex-Wisconsin state Sen. Pam Galloway barley did any fundraising, but she lent her campaign $100,000. However, Galloway spent most of that, and she has just $50,000 on hand.
• IN-09: We have another wide-open GOP race in a red seat. Attorney General Greg Zoeller is probably the best known contender, but he only outraised state Sen. Erin Houchin $131,000 to $130,000, and Houchin has a $109,000 to $96,000 cash on hand edge. Fellow state Sen. Brent Waltz has a reputation for winning tough primaries, but so far he's not hauling in much dough: Waltz brought in only $64,000, and he has $51,000 on hand. Jim Pfaff, a former congressional aide and Colorado conservative talk show host, raised just $9,000.
Romney won this Southern Indiana seat 57-41, and it's hard to see Team Blue scoring a win here. However, 2012 nominee Shelli Yoder actually outraised each Republican with her $149,000 haul. Yoder lost to departing incumbent Todd Young 55-45, and she has since won a spot on the Monroe County Council. Yoder will need absolutely everything to go right if she's going to pull off a win in a seat as red as this one. In 2012, GOP Senate candidate Richard Mourdock ran a horrifically bad campaign, but he still narrowly carried the 9th District.
• NC-02: Republican Rep. Renee Ellmers only turned back an underfunded primary challenge from radio host Frank Roche 59-41 last year, and this cycle has not gone particularly well for her so far. Back in January, Ellmers angered social conservatives when she convinced congressional leaders to yank a bill that would have restricted access to abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. Ellmers completely agreed with the idea in principle, but she feared that language in the bill that would have permitted exceptions in the case of rape only if the victim first reported her rape to law enforcement would have been electoral rat-poison for her party. Naturally, that pragmatic move only helped draw Chatham County Republican Party chair Jim Duncan into the race against her.
Lately, Ellmers has been dealing with unsubstantiated rumors that she had an affair with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Ellmers has denied them, but the story isn't going away. The good news for Ellmers is that her three challengers may split the anti-incumbent vote enough to secure her renomination. If no one takes more than 40 percent in the primary, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff, and it's likely that Ellmers will take at least 40 percent. (If Ellmers is so unpopular that she gets forced into a runoff, she's in really deep shit.)
Duncan only raised $45,000 over the last three months but thanks in large part to some early-self funding, he has $206,000 on hand, far more than the other two non-Ellmers candidates. Roche is running again, but he only has $8,000 in the bank. Former state party communications director Kay Daly made a splash with a truly insane low-budget TV ad, but she only has $21,000 on hand. If Duncan consolidates enough support to leave Daly and Roche in the dust, that would be a major problem for Ellmers. For her part, Ellmers has $411,000 in the bank, more than her three foes put together, but not an incredible sum.
• NH-01: On Thursday, Dan Innis finally confirmed that he would challenge Rep. Frank Guinta in the GOP primary. Innis, a former dean at the University of New Hampshire's business school, lost to Guinta 50-40 last year. However, that was before Guinta paid an FEC fine for an illegal six-figure donation from 2010. The GOP establishment couldn't convince Guinta to resign or retire, and plenty of powerful Republicans will likely take a look at Innis.
However, Innis probably won't have a clear shot at Guinta. State Rep. Pam Tucker, who has ties to Granite State conservatives, recently formed an exploratory committee. Businessman Rich Ashooh, who lost the 2010 primary to Guinta 32-27, is also reportedly considering, though he's been publicly silent about his plans. Democrats would be delighted if enough Republicans ran in the primary and split the anti-Guinta vote and allowed the scandal-tarred congressman to advance.
However, Team Blue has its own primary in this swing seat. Ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who lost to Guinta in 2010 and 2014 but beat him in 2012, is running once again. Shea-Porter has never been a great fundraiser, and she only hauled in $86,000 for the quarter, though she only announced she was running in late September. (She filed with the FEC a month before, and it's unclear how much effort Shea-Porter put into fundraising before she made her bid official.)
Businessman Shawn O'Connor is also running, and he's largely relying on his own wealth to win. O'Connor only moved to New Hampshire from New York City in 2013, and Democrats seem to have closed ranks behind Shea-Porter already. However, O'Connor has a hefty $820,000 in the bank, so he can at least put up a fight.
• NV-04: State Sen. Ruben Kihuen earned Sen. Harry Reid's official endorsement in early September but so far, it hasn't unleashed a fundraising bonanza for him. Kihuen raised just $149,000 over the last three months, not far ahead of ex-Assembly Speaker and 2012 3rd District nominee John Oceguera's $131,000.
Businesswoman Susie Lee still holds serve in the money race: Lee raised $284,000 from donors, and she leads Kihuen $573,000 to $299,999 in cash on hand (Oceguera has $146,000). Ex-Assemblywoman and 2014 lieutenant governor nominee Lucy Flores brought in only $70,000, and she has just $74,000 on hand. As for the man all four Democrats are hoping to beat next fall, Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy raised just $187,000, and he has $555,000 in the bank. Obama won this seat 54-44 and if Hardy isn't losing, Team Blue is probably in for another bad night.
• OH-14: GOP Rep. David Joyce only beat conservative state Rep. Matt Lynch 55-45 in last year's primary, and Lynch is back for round two. Lynch began his last campaign late and didn't raise much money, but his earlier start isn't helping him so far. Joyce outraised Lynch $283,000 to $36,000 over the last three months, and the congressman leads $688,000 to $43,000 in cash on hand.
Joyce will also have a few big advantages he didn't have last time. Joyce was nominated by the county party leaders in 2012 after Rep. Steve LaTourette dropped out after the primary, so he'd never gone before primary voters until last year. And while the 2014 match was a low-turnout affair, next year's race will coincide with the state's presidential primary. If there's still a competitive GOP presidential race raging by the time Ohio goes to vote, it should bring out more casual primary voters who are likely to vote for more familiar names like Joyce's downballot. Romney only won this seat 51-48, but Democrats don't have a viable candidate yet.
• PA-08: National Democrats have rallied behind 2014 candidate Shaughnessy Naughton, and their support seems to be giving her a fundraising boost. Naughton raised $282,000 during the third quarter, a big increase from her $179,000 haul three months before. State Rep. Steve Santarsiero's fundraising left the DCCC unimpressed, and he's not getting any better at it: Santarsiero brought in $160,000, and he trails Naughton $441,000 to $331,000 in cash on hand. GOP state Rep. Scott Petri only got into the race after the end of the quarter, and we'll be watching his inaugural haul to see if he's raising what he needs to raise in this swing seat.
• UT-04: Freshman Republican Mia Love pulled off an unexpectedly close 51-46 win during last year's GOP wave, and Democrat Doug Owens is back for a rematch. Owens won't have an easy time in this red seat, but he's off to a strong start with his $323,000 haul for the quarter. Love brought in $385,000 but as usual, she burned through most of it. Love has always fundraised through direct mail: Direct mail brings in tons of money but costs so much to implement that candidates end up netting very little. Love does post a stronger $758,000 to $285,000 cash on hand lead over Owens, but this is a good start for the Democrat.
• WI-07: On Thursday, Democrat Kirk Bangstad pulled the plug on his campaign against Republican Sean Duffy. Democrats were initially intrigued when Bangstad, an opera singer who has worked in Wisconsin politics, announced he would run in this 51-48 Romney seat. However, Bangstad raised only $99,000 during his first quarter in the race, not the type of money he needed to upset Duffy. Bangstad wasn't willing to up his game though: He sent a long and rambling email to his supporters with the subject, "We can't accept that money wins elections," just a day before he dropped out.
Democrats definitely dodged a bullet by not nominating this guy. Yes, it sucks that money plays such an important role in politics, but this is nothing new: For instance, Lyndon Johnson built up favors during the 1940 congressional elections by raising and sending money to Democratic House candidates across the country. It's also not changing anytime soon. However, it's unclear who, if anyone, is looking at challenging Duffy. The congressman dispatched a credible Democratic opponent 56-44 in 2012, and it won't be easy to find someone able to go toe to toe with him this time. But if Team Blue wants any shot at retaking the House anytime soon, they absolutely need to put light-red seats like this into play.
Ballot Measures:
• OH Ballot, Redistricting: Ohio Republicans have been able to aggressively gerrymander the state legislature since the 1990s, and at first, Issue 1 seems like a good way to make sure that the Democrats have a say in the 2020 round of redistricting. Under Ohio's current law, a committee consisting of the governor, secretary of state, auditor, and a lawmaker from each party draws up legislative lines, and only a simple majority of the commission is needed to pass a map. If voters approve Issue 1 on Tuesday, an extra Democrat and an extra Republican will be added to the panel, and at least two members of the minority party would need to vote for any new map for it to take effect for the entire decade.
This sounds great, but as Stephen Wolf explains, Issue 1 actually does little to prevent the GOP from passing another gerrymander, and it could actually discourage Democrats from pushing for true reform. Check out Wolf's piece to learn why Issue 1 won't help Team Blue nearly as much as it seems it should.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.