First of all, none of this would be possible without lots of hard work from lots of people. PLEASE click on the links and donate time or money, if you are able. The national party has written us off down here for ages, so what these people have done is remarkable. My hat is off to them.
Battleground Texas
Texas Democratic Party
Hillary for Texas
Drive for Democracy (to drive voters to the polls)
ALL the local Democratic organizations — there are too many to count, or include all of them here. We also have some amazing Kossacks involved: LibbyShaw, txjackalope (who gave me the original idea and push for this series — it wouldn’t be here without you!), txdoubledd (you have added fantastic links), MargaretPOA, ChrisLove and the Houston Kossacks who kept me going, Ken in TX and his fantastic work out in Travis County, tiredntexas for her hard work in Harris County, oldhippiedude, oceanview for the constant (needed) reminders to make the donation and volunteer links more visible (I hope I got it right) and everyone else out there who’s helped me build these diaries, links and worked to make this happen. FaithChatham has a wonderful series on congressional races that could be competitive — with donation links, if you have some spare change to share.
If you’re a TX voter, VOTE! Here is a FAQ list for you...early voting ENDS on Friday, 4 Nov. Vote early! Even voting early, some counties are seeing lines up to an hour or two, depending on when you go. Then, if you have time take others to the polls. Voting and enthusiasm are contagious. There are free rides in Austin, courtesy of League of Women Voters, plus the Metro is doing free rides. The YMCA may offer free childcare on election day.
Now, on to data, analysis and caveats. The Texas Secretary of State office has excellent record-keeping, once it’s updated. Until then, all numbers come from the counties directly.
|
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
Day 11, top 15 counties by population
Harris (Houston) |
77,139 |
64,315 |
76,878 |
Dallas |
52,569 |
36,828 |
43,377 |
Tarrant (Ft Worth) |
50,773 |
34,176 |
40,036 |
Bexar (San Antonio) |
38,283 |
31,281 |
37,659 |
Travis (Austin) |
30,370 |
24,118 |
28,195 |
Collin (DFW) |
23,074 |
18,792 |
20,424 |
Denton |
20,606 |
14,491 |
18,670 |
El Paso |
12,162 |
7,438 |
11,111 |
Ft Bend (SW Houston) |
14,483 |
11,952 |
15,382 |
Hidalgo (Rio Grande) |
8,971 |
7,195 |
9,934 |
Montgomery (N Houston) |
10,419 |
8,972 |
11,962 |
Williamson (Round Rock) |
12,670 |
8,826 |
10,540 |
Galveston |
7,173 |
6,235 |
5,963 |
Nueces |
6,593 |
4,862 |
5,907 |
Cameron (Rio Grande) |
4,237 |
3,660 |
5,271 |
Total EV today |
369,522 |
283,141 |
341,263 |
Cumulative EV |
2,918,968 |
2,759,066 |
3,705,597 |
Total Votes (ev & mail in) |
3,117,005 |
2,970,237 |
4,006,734 |
Vote % of Registered Voters |
36.84% |
34.32% |
41.05% |
*I’m still waiting on 5 counties and an estimated 30-45K early votes...with an estimated 10K additional mail-in ballots. That means, as of now we’re STILL a 550K votes above 2012’s total, with another 50k to go from Thursday. Beyond that, the last day of early voting has traditionally had MUCH higher turnout: in 2012 and 2008, about 430K voted in-person. Texas is likely to break 4.5M early votes, at least.
**Update: Added Collin County. Estimated 15-20K votes still out there, plus mail-in. We MAY still have hit 3.7M early voters, and will hit 4M total early votes.
**Update: Added El Paso (and no, not a typo). Est. 6-8K votes outstanding, plus mail-in.
**Update: everything’s in from SoS.
Well, we passed 2012’s total 3.4M votes on Wed...by 200K. So now, it’s just seeing how many voters we can get out! Just to give you an idea how much turnout likely helps us, the Texas Tribune has a great, rich article talking about 2012’s voting demographics. Push comes to shove: 2008 and 2012 had very similar results: Pres Obama lost by around 1.2M votes. Interestingly, they ALSO had similar numbers of both registered voters and votes...8M votes to 13.6M registered voters. This election, we have 15.1M registered voters: if we kept the same turnout percentages, that would give us 8.9M votes. Right now, we’re on track for at LEAST that many — and more. If we can end up with at least 4.2M votes in early voting from these counties, my best guess is we’ll wind up right around 10M votes. If we hit 4.5M, we may see as high as 10.7M. In past years, Friday was the HUGE turnout day...jumping from 270K to about 430K. The big question is whether we’ll see the same turnout on election day, or if more folks are voting early. There’s still the room in the RV pool to expand — even 10.7M voters is only 70.8% of the registered voters.
Other demographic info: both White and Black voters came out at similar rates: 60%, plus or minus. However, Latinos turned out at 28%, and Asians at 24%. If we see significantly higher turnout, we have a VERY good chance it’ll come from these areas. If we can get Latino vote to 48% (still 10% under Whites), that would net us another 1.35M votes, just from Latinos...which happens to be higher than the 2012 margin. TexDude50 has a great diary about polling screens in TX here.
Yes, I know Latinos won’t all vote for Sec. Clinton. Let’s say they do at a slightly lower rate than the Latino Decisions poll: 75/25. NONE vote for 3rd parties. That would STILL net us 1M of the 1.35 — for a 700K vote gain. All of a sudden, we’re just 500K under 2012. With the sort of GOP defections polls have shown for other races — anywhere from 13% to 28% — this race is winnable, if we turn out.
What happens if we don’t? Let’s say we still can change the margin from 15 points to 5 and it all translates downballot. That’s 5% fewer GOP votes and 5% more Dem. What races are within 10? Based on 2012: 6th, 14th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 32nd. It also brings another 5 into the margin of error: the 7th, 10th, 21st, 24th and 31st.
So, is it worth it to get out the vote? Depends...do you like gaining 6-11 seats in Congress, just from TX...with the possibility of a big, beautiful TX blue? Let’s make it happen!