The Democratic national picture hasn’t budged since last week:
I mean, there literally haven’t been any new national polls in like five days. Weird. On the other hand, we do have numbers from some of tomorrow’s states:
State |
Dem delegates |
GOP delegates |
MI |
147 |
59 |
MS |
41 |
40 |
ID |
(Caucus on 3/22) |
32 |
HI |
(Caucus on 3/26) |
19 |
There are 189 delegates being contested on the Democratic side, compared to 131 over the weekend. Next Tuesday—one week from tomorrow—there will be 792 delegates up for grabs. This Saturday, the Northern Mariana Islands caucus to apportion another 11 (the other five are supers). Beats me why they get so many. So nearly 1,000 delegates will be apportioned over the next eight days.
So how do Michigan and Mississippi look? If the polling is correct, they will be dominant Clinton states.
Let’s start with delegate-rich Michigan:
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
MITCHELL (R)/FOX2 |
3/6 |
66 |
29 |
3/1 |
61 |
33 |
MONMOUTH U |
3/3-6 |
55 |
42 |
-
|
- |
- |
ARG |
3/4-5 |
60 |
36 |
2/19-20 |
53 |
40 |
CBS/YOUGOV
|
3/2-4 |
55 |
44 |
- |
- |
- |
NBC/WSJ/MARIST |
3/1-3 |
57 |
40 |
- |
- |
- |
EPIC-MRA |
2/28-3/1 |
56 |
31 |
- |
- |
-
|
We only have two pollsters with trendlines, and both have shown gains for Hillary Clinton. I wouldn’t stake my reputation on either of those two polls. EPIC-MRA has lots of history polling in MIchigan, much of it good, so if I had to put my money on one, I’d put it on that one. However, there’s a reason why polling composites were invented: So we wouldn’t have to cherrypick the polls we liked best, or thought were best. And 58 to 38 sounds about right, though I’m guessing Clinton will top 60 percent.
As for Mississippi, it’s a deep southern state with a heavily African-American electorate. We all know what those look like. We have two polls that hint at what we can expect:
Magellan (R): Clinton 65, Sanders 11
PPP: Clinton 60, Sanders 26
Mississippi is by far the most African-American state (by percentage) in the union. Runner-up Louisiana is 32.4 percent black, while Mississippi is 37.3 percent black. So, I would guess that Clinton’s victory will be even wider than her 71-23 percent blowout in the Bayou State. The two caucuses that evening are on the GOP side, so nothing to offset Sanders’ losses that day.
REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump’s national numbers continue to soar, even as we’ve seen the first chinks in his armor appear.
Trump’s narrower-than-expected victories in Louisiana and Kentucky on Saturday have given Republicans renewed hope that they can stymie him enough to knock him out in a brokered convention. Tomorrow’s performance will either confirm that the U.S.S. Trump is taking in water, or will blow that narrative out of the water.
For sure, February wasn’t kind to Trump’s Michigan numbers:
That is a nearly 20-point Trump lead over Cruz. The question is whether late revelations (bragging about the size of his penis, the Nazi salute, his KKK bromance) will continue to take their toll.
|
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
KASICH |
RUBIO |
MITCHELL (R)/FOX2 |
3/6 |
42 |
19 |
20 |
9 |
3/2 |
42 |
19 |
14 |
15 |
MONMOUTH U |
3/3-6 |
36 |
23 |
21 |
13 |
-
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
ARG |
3/4-5 |
31 |
15 |
33 |
11 |
2/19-20 |
35 |
12 |
17 |
12 |
CBS/YOUGOV
|
3/2-4 |
39 |
24 |
15 |
16 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
NBC/WSJ/MARIST |
3/1-3 |
41 |
22 |
13 |
17 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
So we have Mitchell saying that nothing has changed except for Rubio support moving over to Kasich, and we have ARG saying that John Kasich is going to win. Wow. That’s quite the limb to hang from.
In MIssissippi, we have a single poll: Magellan (R): Trump 41, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
We have nothing from the caucus states of Idaho and Hawaii, because pollsters have wised up to that. No one can figure out which 3 percent of the public will vote in each primary, so why even bother trying?
Should be a good night for Trump unless he underperforms. It wouldn’t be a good time for him to show weakness. It could also be a good night for Kasich, taking another step toward consolidating the establishment around him instead of the hapless Marco Rubio.