Redistricting has always been an interest of mine. I believe it is my combined love of both geography and politics that captures my attention when these two worlds collide. However, I feel like 90% of American voters are unfamiliar with the use of gerrymandering by both political parties. Gerrymandering is the art of manipulating the boundaries of an electoral constituency to favor one party over the other. During the 2010 Republican wave, Republicans gained control of state legislatures across the nation. Being as the state legislature draws new congressional maps every decade, Republicans went in with a clear advantage and decided to shore up most of their seats and make it nearly impossible for Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives. This is why even though Democrats won over a million more votes in 2012 than Republicans, they were still in a 234-201 seat deficit. Democrats are not innocent in this game either, and many of them have even sacrificed their own party’s progress to instead ensure their protection in heavily-packed Democratic districts. Gerrymandering has existed since our inception as a country, but it is our duty as citizens to say no more. I am starting my new series called “Redrawing America” where I will be redrawing every state using Dave’s Redistricting App. I will be doing this by regions. I will be using 2008 election data as Dave’s doesn’t calculate 2012 data, but the maps should still stay fairly similar as far as which party carried them.
To read part one where I redraw Georgia and the Carolinas, click here: www.dailykos.com/...
To give you an idea of how I go through this process, I take all of these factors into consideration:
1. Ignore partisanship
2. Avoid, if possible, splitting counties and municipalities
3. Consider areas with the same culture or economic class
4. Compactness is key.
5. Make majority-minority districts complacent with the VRA when possible.
Head below the fold where I will begin.
Alabama: Alabama Republicans packed Democratic voters in Birmingham, Montgomery, and Tuscaloosa all into one district. My map corrects one of the worst gerrymanders in the South. Team Blue should walk away with 2 seats while Team Red will hold onto 5.
1st District: Florence, Huntsville (Teal)
The changes to this northern Alabama district were minimal, although it no longer includes the city of Decatur. It does contain the cities of Florence and Huntsville in their entirety. McCain won this district 62-38, and it is safely red no matter the environment.
2nd District: Cullman, Decatur, Gadsden (Purple)
The biggest change to this district is that it no longer splits the city of Tuscaloosa. It contains the cities of Cullman, Decatur, and Gadsden and is extremely conservative. The district went for McCain 75-24 and is safely Republican.
3rd District: Anniston, Birmingham Suburbs (Yellow)
The biggest change to this district is that it loses the city of Opelika and gains the Birmingham suburbs. It also includes the city of Anniston along with many rural communities in central Alabama. The district went for McCain 72-27 and is safely Republican.
4th District: Birmingham, Hoover (Blue)
This district reverses the gerrymander that split Democratic precincts into another district. Jefferson County is made whole and contains both the cities of Birmingham and Hoover. The district went for Obama 51-48, and is likely to be contested by both parties. There are several Democratic legislators who could run here. The district is 50% white and 40% African American, and could very well elect an African American to Congress.
5th District: Montgomery, Selma, Tuscaloosa (Dark Green)
This district changed immensely as both Montgomery and Tuscaloosa are now in their entirety. It also includes many “Black Belt” counties that stretch across the state. The district went for Obama 55-45, and is likely to favor Democrats outside of a huge Republican wave. The district is 48% white and 47% African American, so someone from either race could emerge victorious here. Former Congressman Bobby Bright and Tuscaloosa mayor Walt Maddox come to mind as those who could run here.
6th District: Dothan, Opelika (Navy)
This district changed a lot due to the gerrymandering of Montgomery being removed. This district now includes the cities of Dothan and Opelika, along with many small counties that border the Florida Panhandle. This district went for McCain 64-35 and is safely Republican.
7th District: Mobile (Red)
This district hardly changed at all. It consists almost entirely of the city of Mobile and other cities along the Alabama coastline. This district went for McCain 60-39, and no Republican should have trouble winning here.
Current Map: 0 competitive districts
My Map: 2 competitive districts
Arkansas: Arkansas Democrats really missed out on guaranteeing themselves at least one seat in Congress after they drew a map that was more favorable to Republicans and then lost the state legislature. This map fixes some of their errors while keeping things fair. Of the 4 districts, Democrats should pickup one seat, while Republicans should be favored in the other 3.
1st District- Conway, Jonesboro (Dark Green)
This seat removes the Democratic counties along the Mississippi River and adds the city of Conway and northern parts of the state. It also includes the city of Jonesboro.This district went for McCain 65-32 and Republicans should be favored to hold this seat. However, there is still some Democratic down ballot strength in this area that could give Democrats a small shot at this seat, although it would take a strong challenger and a good environment nationally. Arkansas as a whole is trending away from the Bill Clinton bubble it once lived in, so that may be me being too optimistic for Team Blue here. In all likelihood this seat will remain in Republican hands for years to come.
2nd District- Little Rock, Pine Bluff, West Memphis (Blue)
This district includes the Democratic-leaning city of Little Rock along with multiple counties along the Mississippi River that are still very Democratic up and down the ballot. The Democratic-leaning cities of Pine Bluff and West Memphis also contribute to Democratic strength here. The old version of this seat partnered Conway with Little Rock, which made the district more Republican. There are multiple Democratic officials who could run here. Obama won this seat 54-44, and it should stay in Democratic hands unless a Republican wave hits.
3rd District- Fayetteville, Fort Smith (Purple)
This seat didn’t change much and has been in Republican hands long before the state started trending that way. It contains the cities of Fayetteville and Fort Smith. It went for McCain 64-34 and is safely Republican.
4th District- Hot Springs, Texarkana (Red)
This district didn’t change much except that it no longer extends into a big chunk of the conservative northern part of the state, which probably alleviates some of the struggles Democratic candidates have had here. It includes the cities of Hot Springs and Texarkana. The district went 63-34 for McCain, but Democrats are strong down the ballot here. Pretty much the same rules apply here as in the 1st, if a strong challenger coupled with a good national environment occurs, Democrats have a chance to flip this seat, albeit it is a small chance. However, the recent Republican trend in the state gives room for pessimism.
Current Map: 0 competitive districts
My Map: 0 competitive districts
Louisiana: Louisiana Republicans packed Democrats in Baton Rouge and New Orleans into one single district. My map gives Democrats a chance at a second seat in the Baton Rouge area, while Team Red should hold all their seats elsewhere.
1st District- Chalmette, Slidell (Teal)
This district doesn’t change too much except it loses the city of Houma. This seat also contains the cities of Chalmette and Slidell. McCain won here 72-26, so this seat is safely Republican.
2nd District- Kenner, Metairie, New Orleans (Gray)
Instead of splitting the city of New Orleans, this version keeps the entire city and county together along with the cities of Kenner and Metairie. This district is 45% white and 40% African American, so there is a could chance this district will send an African American to Congress. Obama won this district 55-44, and it is likely out of reach for the GOP.
3rd District- Baton Rouge, Opelousas (Purple)
This district keeps the Democratic precincts in Baton Rouge together along with the city of Opelousas. It also contains small counties that are Democratic. Obama won here 50-48, and will likely be contested by both parties no matter the environment. The district is 49% white and 45% African American, meaning it could very well send an African American to Congress. State Senator Regina Barrow and State Representatives Chad Brown and Robby Carter would all be good candidates here.
4th District- Houma, Lafayette, New Iberia (Red)
This coastal district doesn’t change much except that it gains the city of Houma and loses Lake Charles. This district covers most of the Acadiana region, and contains the cities of Lafayette and New Iberia. This district voted for McCain by a 67-32 margin and is safely Republican.
5th District- Alexandria, Lake Charles (Dark Green)
In the previous map, north and central Louisiana were cut in half together to make two separate districts. My version keeps all of central Louisiana together, and includes the cities of Alexandria and Lake Charles, along with many small, rural counties. This district went for McCain 65-33 and is safely Republican.
6th District- Bossier City, Monroe, Shreveport (Blue)
This district keeps all of northern Louisiana together. It includes the cities of Bossier City, Monroe, and Shreveport. This area, like other parts of the South, is very Democratic down the ballot. McCain won here 57-42, but Democrats could pull off an upset with a strong candidate and a good environment. Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell comes to mind, but there are several other state legislators who could give it a go. It most cases, though, Team Red is likely favored here.
Current Map: 0 competitive districts
My Map: 1 competitive district
Mississippi: The current map is yet another case of shoving Democrats into one district, which seems to be a recurring Song of the South these days. Of the 4 congressional districts, two are safe for Team Red and one is safe for Team Blue with one swing seat in the mix for both parties to compete in.
1st District- Clarksdale, Greenville, Starkville (Blue)
This northern Mississippi seat consists of the cities of Clarksdale, Greenville, and Starkville, along with many rural counties. The district takes in a lot of the Democratic counties that were all packed into one district, making it significantly more swingy. McCain won the district by a narrow 51-48 margin, so both parties will be able to compete here. Starkville mayor Parker Wiseman would probably be the best option for Team Blue here, although there are many Democratic elected officials that could take the plunge here. This seat is 54% white and 42% African American, so there is a chance the district could elect an African American.
2nd District- Jackson, Vicksburg (Purple)
This district loses many Democratic northern counties to the 1st to reverse the gerrymander. Instead, this seat will now gain counties in the southern part of the state. This seat contains the cities of Jackson and Vicksburg, along with many rural counties. This seat backed Obama 55-44, and is likely safe for Democrats unless a huge Republican wave sweeps the area. This seat is 54% African American and 42% white, which means it is likely voters here will send an African American to Congress.
3rd District- Meridian, Tupelo (Green)
This district consists of the cities of Meridian and Tupelo, along with many rural counties in central and northern Mississippi. This district went for McCain by a 64-35 margin and is safely Republican.
4th District- Biloxi, Gulfport, Hattiesburg (Red)
This gulf coast district doesn’t change much in my version. It consists of the cities of Biloxi, Gulfport, and Hattiesburg. The district voted 68-31 for McCain and is safely Republican. This seat used to elect centrist Democrats like Gene Taylor (who has since switched parties) but those days are likely gone.
Current Map: 0 competitive districts
My Map: 1 competitive district
Next week we will visit the Lone Star state of Texas and create a fair map of out its 36 Congressional districts.