Hi Guys,
Now, that we’re getting a lot more data, I’ve decided to start doing these on a bimonthly basis. I’ll probably do one in Mid-October and one more the week before election day.
All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, with the exceptions of FL-2, FL-10, and VA-4 which were radically altered as a result of redistricting lawsuits and are considered safe for the opposite party. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats.
House:
Likely D |
Leans D |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Likely R |
AZ-9
CA-24
CA-26
CA-31
CA-36
CA-52
MN-7
NH-2
NY-18
|
AZ-1
CA-7
CO-6
FL-13
FL-26
IA-1
MN-2
MN-8
NH-1
NV-4
NY-3
NY-24
|
FL-18
IL-10 (Tilt D)
IA-3 (Tilt R)
ME-2
MI-1 (Tilt R)
NE-2
NV-3
NY-1
NY-19
NY-22
PA-8
TX-23 (Tilt D)
UT-4 (Tilt R)
WI-8 (Tilt R)
|
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-49
CO-3
FL-7
IN-9
MN-3
MI-7
NJ-5
NY-23
VA-10
|
AK-AL
FL-27
IL-12
IL-13
IN-2
KS-3
MI-6
MI-8
MI-11
MT-AL
NC-13
NJ-3
NM-2
NY-21
PA-6
PA-7
PA-16
SC-5
VA-5
WA-3
WA-8
WI-6
WI-7
|
Senate:
Likely D |
Leans D |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Likely R |
WI-SEN
|
IL-SEN
PA-SEN
|
FL-SEN (Tilt R)
IN-SEN (Tilt D)
NC-SEN (Tilt R)
NV-SEN
NH-SEN (Tilt D)
|
AZ-SEN
MO-SEN
OH-SEN
|
IA-SEN
|
Rating changes and explanations below the fold as always. My original ratings can be found
here. Again, feel free to quibble with me in the comments.
Likely D to leans D:
MN-8: This is where the race probably belonged from the beginning, but add spending clearly shows both parties see a race here.
Tossup / Tilt D to Leans D:
NY-3: More unanswered polling showing Souzzi with large leads.
Tossup / Tilt D to Pure Tossup:
NV-Sen: Recent polling has consistently shown Heck with small to medium leads, and while polling has often understated Democratic support in Nevada, this one’s going down to the wire.
Pure Tossup to Tossup / Tilt R:
FL-Sen: I still think Murphy stands a pretty good chance here, but polls have consistently showed Rubio leading.
WI-8: We have a few polls here showing Gallagher with substantial leads.
Leans R to Tossup / Tilt R:
NC-Sen: Polls have tightened substantially, with many showing Ross leading. Burr probably still has a slight edge here, but it’s not strong.
Likely R to Leans R:
MO-Sen: Add spending shows both parties clearly see a race here.
FL-7: Yeah, I’m a little late to the game on this one. Clinton will probably win the seat and National Democrats seem to be taking this race seriously.
CA-49: Clinton is likely to win the district and we have a fair amount of polling data now showing a close race.