While Democrats will have a tough time flipping either chamber of Congress next year, the nation’s governor’s offices are a very different story. We recently detailed how it’s Republicans who are far more vulnerable at the gubernatorial level: As shown on the map at the top of this post, Democrats hold just 10 of the 38 states that will elect their governor in 2017 or 2018, and they currently have an incumbent running in six of those races. Fortunately for Democrats, Hillary Clinton won nine of those 10 states, and Pennsylvania just barely supported Donald Trump after backing Barack Obama in 2012. Only three other Democratic states went for Clinton by less than 10 points.
The 2016 presidential election margin in a particular state can serve as a useful indicator of how the parties might perform for governor, particularly when there is no incumbent running. However, voters who supported one party for president are often more likely to split their ticket for the opposite party in state elections than in federal races. Local factors like the incumbent governor’s popularity can matter greatly.
Still, midterm elections almost always see the president’s party lose seats downballot, especially when an administration is deeply unpopular. If the public’s dislike of Trump persists or worsens, Democrats could receive a significant boost as they seek to defend their few vulnerable gubernatorial offices in 2017 and 2018.
As shown on the map below, Republicans currently dominate at the state level at a rate not seen since practically the Civil War. They simultaneously control both legislative chambers and the governor’s office (known as a legislative “trifecta”) in 25 states outright, plus they have another two where they can override a Democratic governor’s vetoes; these 27 states cover 56 percent of the population.
Meanwhile, Democrats have single-party government in a mere six states and veto-proof majorities to override a Republican governor in just two more. These eight Democratic-controlled states add up to only 19 percent of the population, or roughly one-third as much as Republicans govern.
Since it’s often easier for Democrats to win a statewide election for governor than it is for them to carry a majority of seats in a heavily Republican-gerrymandered legislature, the governor’s veto pen is often all that’s standing between a state and conservative policies. Consequently, the stakes couldn’t be higher for some of these states where Democrats are on defense.
Let’s take a look at the handful of most vulnerable Democratic states individually.
Colorado
Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper faces term limits in 2018, and the field to succeed him is wide open. Republicans have won just two of the last 11 gubernatorial races, but Colorado backed Clinton by only 48-43 and has seen competitive recent statewide elections. Democrats hope to reverse their one-seat deficit in the state Senate in 2018, and doing so while retaining the governor’s office would give them unified control over state government once again.
Each party has a relatively deep bench in Colorado, but the race has been slow to take shape. Former state Sen. Mike Johnston and businessman Noel Ginsburg have announced Democratic bids, while Larimer County Commissioner Lew Gaiter and businessman Victor Mitchell are running for Republicans. However, several bigger-named candidates are publicly considering a campaign. On the Democratic side, Rep. Ed Perlmutter, and ex-Sen. Ken Salazar are the most prominent people who are talking about running, though there are several other legislators who might jump in.
On the GOP side, suburban Denver District Attorney George Brauchler, whose district covers one-sixth of Colorado, is talking about getting in, while state Treasurer Walker Stapleton and Attorney General Cynthia Coffman are reportedly interested; there are also other legislators and businesspeople who might run.
Connecticut
Despite favoring Clinton by 55-41 and every Democratic presidential nominee since 1992, Connecticut could be the party’s most endangered hold thanks to Gov. Dan Malloy’s deep unpopularity, which partially stems from his handling of the state’s budget and the economy. Malloy hasn’t yet announced whether he will seek a third term, but Democrats might be better off if he hangs it up. Malloy is the only Democrat to get elected governor in the last three decades, and even he only just barely did so each time. A Republican triumph would break Democrats’ narrow unified grip on state government, and coattails might even sweep Republicans into power at the legislative level too.
Fortunately for Democrats, few Republicans have much of a statewide profile since they control zero statewide offices and no congressional seats. However, several Republicans have expressed interest in running, including state Rep. Prasad Srinivasan, Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti, state Sen. Toni Boucher, and Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton. Democrats have many options if Malloy declines to run again, but even another nominee might struggle to distance themselves from the governor’s unpopular record.
Minnesota
Minnesota has voted for every Democratic presidential nominee since 1976, but Clinton’s narrow 46-45 edge means the state is far from secure, especially since Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton won’t run for a third term. If Republicans maintain their state House majority, a gubernatorial victory would give their party total control over the state for the first time since 1970.
Both parties have seen a flood of interest in the contest to succeed Dayton. On the Democratic side, state Auditor Rebecca Otto, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, and state Rep. Erin Murphy are already in. Additionally, Lt. Gov. Tina Smith; Rep. Tim Walz; Rep. Rick Nolan; Attorney General Lori Swanson; and several state legislators are all considering running for Democrats. Republicans also have their fair share of potential candidates including Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who was the 2014 gubernatorial nominee; 2014 Senate nominee Mike McFadden; state House Speaker Kurt Daudt; Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek; and other legislators.
Pennsylvania
Trump’s surprise 48-47 upset over Clinton brought an end to Pennsylvania’s two-decade streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees, but it remains a very evenly divided swing state. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf gave his party a rare bright spot amid the 2014 Republican wave when the wealthy businessman ousted scandal-plagued Republican Gov. Tom Corbett.
Since then, Wolf’s tenure has been bogged down by skirmishes with the Republican-majority legislature over the budget and other issues. Wolf could be vulnerable as he seeks a second term in 2018, and the Republican field to challenge him is slowly taking shape. State Sen. Scott Wagner has already entered the race, while Rep. Mike Kelly and affluent businessman Paul Addis are considering doing so.
Rhode Island
Like Connecticut, Rhode Island is a state that is very blue at the presidential level, but has seen much closer recent contests for governor. Despite Clinton’s 54-39 edge there, Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo has struggled with a low approval rating. Democrats have long had overwhelming legislative majorities, so they would likely technically have the votes to override a Republican governor’s vetoes, but a conservative coalition within the party in effect holds significant clout in the General Assembly.
Republicans don’t have a deep bench in Rhode Island, but if Raimondo’s unpopularity persists, they might not need one. Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who lost to Raimondo 41-36, has not ruled out another bid, but if he runs, he may not have an easy path through the primary. So far, several of the Republicans who are considering waging a campaign are businessmen who don’t hold political office, including CEOs Giovanni Feroce and Karl Wadensten. Businessman Ken Block is also contemplating a second bid after he lost the 2014 primary to Fung by a modest margin. Should Raimondo unexpectedly bail on a second term, many Democrats could run to succeed her, but even if she seeks re-election, some Democrats have made noises about a primary challenge.
Virginia
Virginia elects its governor in 2017 instead of 2018, and it will likely be this year’s marquee contest. Clinton carried the Old Dominion by 50-44, but low odd-year turnout often sees Democratic-leaning demographics such as young voters and Latinos make up a smaller share of the electorate, meaning the 2017 voter pool will likely lean more Republican. Term limits prevent Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe from seeking a second consecutive term, and a Republican victory would give them total control over the state if they keep their heavily gerrymandered state House majority.
Much of the Democratic establishment had consolidated early around Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, but former Rep. Tom Perriello made a surprise late entrance into the race, setting up a high-profile June 13 primary. Republicans have a primary of their own to contend with thanks to several candidates running, including State Sen. Frank Wagner, Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart, and former Republican National Committee head Ed Gillespie, who narrowly lost the 2014 Senate race. Gillespie has decisively outraised his primary foes, and the early polls give him the lead, but with plenty of voters undecided.
In sum, Democrats have far fewer vulnerable gubernatorial states than Republicans do. If the 2018 national environment favors Democrats as a backlash to Trump, they could pull out key wins. Success could give them single-party rule in Colorado, allow them to maintain it in Connecticut and Rhode Island, and prevent unified Republican governance in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
These races are even more critical because they will determine control over 2020s redistricting, meaning Democratic victories in 2018 won’t just shape legislation for the next four years, but could move policy to the left at both the federal and state level for over a decade.