Likely Republican 11 days ago
On May 5th (T-20), the day after the AHCA vote, the Cook Political Report moved 20 House races in our direction. Montana wasn’t one of them. Charlie kept Montana at “Likely Republican.” Then, a few things happened:
- Greg Gianforte got caught talking out of both sides of his mouth about the AHCA
- Quist out-raised the GOP gazillionaire, almost totally in small dollar contributions
- A credible poll with a strongly Trump-leaning sample showed a 6 point race
Leans Republican 4 days ago
May 12th (T-13), Just one week after deciding to keep MT-AL as “Likely Republican,” Cook posted a single race change: MT-AL was officially “Leans Republican” as of last Friday.
Yesterday, all hell broke loose as the press broke the news that Trump was dishing secrets to Russia.
Then, tonight (T-9), Erick Erickson tweeted that GOP internal polling in both Georgia and Montana had moved against the GOP over the weekend.
Tossup tonight
I am officially declaring Montana a Toss-Up. There is blood in the water and Trump is chumming for us. We still have to land this fish, though, so
please donate ASAP to Quist’s campaign to take back Montana from the gazillionaires.