Note: On predictions
I am an interdisciplinary scholar who analyzes how new technologies impact society, with particular attention to information technologies and to war/peace. I am also an activist and organizer involved in everything from union campaigns (proud member of UC-AFT) to direct action in the streets. As both a scholar and an activist I try and make predictions, so as to evaluate my understandings and to plan my political work. The predictions below are structured as probabilities.
So, my prediction for the rest of Trump’s Presidency:
40% chance Trump resigns before his term ends.
20% chance Trump is impeached and convicted.
40% chance Trump finishes his term.
If impeached (a 50% chance) and convicted, I estimate there is a ¼ chance in that scenario that Pence will be implicated and impeached/convicted as well. Thus a 5% chance overall that Pelosi, or another Democrat, will serve out Trump’s term. But there is a 15% chance that Pence will finish the convicted Trump’s term. So, overall, the most likely end, in my opinion, to the Trump presidency is President Pence, at 55%.
If Trump does not resign or is not convicted after being impeached, there is a very good chance he will be nominated again for President by the GOP (35%) and a much smaller chance he will be reelected (5%).
If impeached and convicted, or in another context, I estimate there is a 10% chance overall Trump will attempt a coup (most likely by declaring martial law). And at this juncture, a 50/50 chance it will succeed. That means, overall, a 5% chance that the U.S. democracy will not survive Trump’s first term. Roughly, the same likelihood that a Democrat will finish his term or that Trump will be reelected in 2020.
Some of the assumptions and analysis behind these estimates are below. Certain events make others possible and/or likely. For example, there will almost certainly be no impeachment if the Democrats do not take control of the House in the November 2018 midterm elections. The chances of Trump being convicted by the Senate after being impeached by the House depend on 1) losing the November midterms significantly and 2) a major loss of support for him among the Republican base, probably down to as low as 50%, which would put his overall support down below 30%. Nixon enjoyed strong Republican support until he didn’t. If it is clear even to the stupidest Senator that the GOP is in existential crisis because of Trump, it is possible 17 or 18 Republican Senators will vote to convict Trump to save the party. At this point, or sooner, Trump is likely to resign.
The conclusion that a Trump resignation is 40% possible assumes more scandals of various types being revealed, and that several current scandals are confirmed with a “smoking gun”, and it is based on the assumption that Trump is an absolute coward. On the other hand, being a narcissistic megalomaniac with fanatical supporters in the millions and increasingly degrading intellectual capabilities means Trump could end up getting impeached and convicted, or even trying a coup, just out of stupidity and arrogance.
A Trump Coup (see my still useful article of a year ago and the separate “Trump Coup Scorecard”), is much more likely during a foreign crisis, such as war with Korea (see my article on this), or as grows more likely, Iran or Venezuela.
My resistance isn’t just to Trump. It is to capitalism, to imperialism, to racism and patriarchy, to the carbon economy and climate disaster. It is not enough to save the degrading imperial democracy of the United States of America. Fundamental change is necessary.
We need to anticipate what happens, and be prepared to take actions to stop Trump, but also to weaken the 1% and strengthen everyone else. Call it crisis anti-capitalism. Successfully resisting Trump is not enough. Racism and misogyny must be repudiated. His close allies should also removed from power, the Republican Party discredited, and imperialism and capitalism weakened.
Before we consider ideas on what to be prepared for, we need to chart out what might happen. I have broken down various political events into “cracks” and “ruptures” in the Trump domination. It should be understood that these events, and how the country deals with them, will determine our political future, whether it is Trump Collapse or Trump Dictatorship.
Cracks and Ruptures
Cracks
Most of the events on this list would be enough to seriously wound any other presidency. But Trump World is different. So if you make a bingo chart, it should take around 15 of these happening before you can call out BINGO! Still, each of these events is a “crack” that makes a “rupture” more likely. How many to force a resignation or successful impeachment? Too many. These “cracks” have different weights, and some can happen multiple times. Still… 20 would seem a lot, perhaps enough to ensure a rupture.
In the 15 days since starting this list, 6 of these have already happened: Manafort convicted, Cohen flipped, David Pecker flipped, Allen Weisselberg flipped, Sam Patten flipped, and a new credible claim of Trump paying someone off to keep an illicit affair secret, this time with a child. Cohen’s direct incrimination of Trump in illegal activity, and the child, make these particularly dangerous “cracks” in Trump’s facade.
- Bribes to more women, or others, to hide an affair, are revealed.
- More Russians or minor players are indicted by Muller.
- Trump forced into discovery, or found guilty, in one of the many “minor” law suits he is involved in (various frauds, emoluments, Trump foundation scam, bribing mistresses…).
- Major scandals and resignations of key administration figures.
- The n-tape comes out.
- The p-tape comes out.
- Trump’s tax return comes out.
- Trump/Russian Collusion smoking gun is produced.
- Cohn flips or is indicted.
- Other key Trump players flip or are indicted.
- Roger Stone flips or is indicted.
- Trump fires Sessions
- Trump’s new Attorney General fires Rosenstein.
- Trump’s new Attorney General fires Muller.
- Donald Trump Jr. indicted.
- Eric Trump indicted.
- Ivanka Trump indicted.
- Jarod Kushner indicted.
- Manafort found guilty.
- Trump pardons 1 or more of his co-conspirators.
- Trump named as an unindicted co-conspirator.
- Trump indicted by a Federal or state court.
- Trump rejects a subpoena from a court.
- Pence implicated in Russian collusion or the obstruction.
- Blue wave in 2018 midterms.
- Trump blockades or bombs someone. (Iran, N. Korea, Venezuela, China…)
- Trump takes trade wars to a level that obviously impacts the economy.
- Trump inspired alt-right activist kills members of the press or anti-Trump protesters.
- Trump refuses to obey an act of Congress, such as a subpoena.
- Trump impeached by the House.
Ruptures
The events on this list represent fundamental breaks with the legal political structures of the U.S., a collapse of the neo-liberal consensus, and a direct threat to whatever democratic institutions (pretensions) the U.S. still has.
In all of these situations, it is likely that protesters will be met by armed alt-right militias and private security (such as Academi, formally Blackwell). They will probably be joined by some elements of law enforcement. Potentially pro-Trump law enforcement groups include some local departments, some State agencies, BIA, DIA, Secret Service, and ICE (which has its own SWAT and heavy weapons units). Most law enforcement should follow the rulings of the courts. But if courts conflict, and if the Supreme Court refuses to rule (for example in a Congressional-Trump stand-off), we need to remember that the general tendency of law enforcement it to not question authority.
If the military gets involved, on either side, it will be divided. This could lead to civil war. Since the military’s first priority is to safe guard the military, it seems they will only intervene if there is legal clarity, consensus in the military, or profound social disorder. Reaching out to the military in support of democracy, diversity, and honoring the Constitution should be a priority now.
- Trump “postpones” the 2018 midterms.
- Trump “rejects” the 2018 midterm results with significant GOP support.
- Trump “rejects” a vote of guilty in impeachment proceedings by the Senate.
- Trump starts a full war with someone (Iran, Korea, Venezuela…)
- Trump declares “martial law” in response to protests, a terrorist attack, a full war or a natural disaster.
- Trump calls on his supporters to go into the streets to confront “traitors” (protesters, the press).
- Trump defies the Supreme Court supporting a subpoena or similar instrument from one of the Trump’s legal fronts (Muller, emoluments suit, fraud suits, bribing mistresses suits…) or from Congress.
If there is a rupture we have no reason to be surprised. Certain types of ruptures call for clear responses. We should aim at being effective. To get rid of Trump is one important thing, but it is not enough. In a future article I plan to discuss in detail specifics about preparing for a rupture during the Trump presidency.