The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PA State Senate: Dealing a major blow to Democratic chances of finally overcoming GOP gerrymandering and flipping this chamber in 2020, state Sen. John Yudichak has switched from Democratic to independent and will caucus with Republicans, giving the GOP caucus a 29-21 majority. Yudichack's 14th District in the Wilkes-Barre area swung hard from 54-45 Obama to 57-40 Trump. However, Yudichak won re-election unopposed last year even as Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf was only carrying his seat by 52-46 and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey lost it by 52-47 against GOP Rep. Lou Barletta, who hailed from this area.
Campaign Action
Consequently, Democrats will need to flip four seats (assuming they hold all of their own) in 2020 to take a majority with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman breaking ties, and they don't have an easy road thanks largely to the aforementioned gerrymander. The best Democratic target is the 9th District in the Philadelphia suburbs, which backed Clinton 55-42 and Obama 52-45, but after that seat, the target list is much less appealing. The Erie-based 49th District went 49-47 for Clinton, but that was a big drop from Obama's 59-40 win there.
The last two districts are likely to be the most difficult, starting with the 15th District in the Harrisburg area, which voted 50-46 Trump and 49.36-49.34 Obama. Lastly, the 13th District in Lancaster County backed Trump 51-45 and Mitt Romney by 53-46. Although the GOP's roots in Lancaster County run deeper than in many other regions in the U.S., the 13th State Senate District very narrowly voted for 2018 11th Congressional District candidate Jess King against GOP Rep. Lloyd Smucker, who won 59-41 overall in a district that overlaps with this Senate seat. It's possible that with great candidates, Democrats could sweep these four districts, but it will take a whole lot to go right next year.
Senate
● DE-Sen: Businesswoman Jessica Scarane, who works for an interactive marketing firm and runs the local nonprofit Girls Inc. of Delaware, has launched a primary bid against Democratic Sen. Chris Coons from the left. Coons has compiled a moderate voting record since winning his seat in 2010, and he has been an ardent defender of preserving the filibuster rule. Scarane, who is making her first bid for office, argued that Coons was too willing to vote to confirm Trump's cabinet and judicial nominees, and she's running on progressive policies such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal.
● GA-Sen-B: The application period has closed for Republicans seeking to be Gov. Brian Kemp's appointee to replace Sen. Johnny Isakson when the incumbent resigns later this year over health reasons, and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has the names of the contenders.
Those who are reportedly most likely to be considered include Rep. Doug Collins; state House Speaker Pro Tempore Jan Jones; author Jackie Gingrich Cushman, who is the daughter of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; state Department of Human Services Commissioner Robyn Crittenden; Office of Highway Safety director Allen Poole; and financial services firm CEO Kelly Loeffler, who is a Republican megadonor and could self-fund.
● TX-Sen: The University of Texas at Tyler has conducted a survey of the Democratic primary for Senate, and they show a field that's wide open with unsure leading the way at 52%. The survey finds 2018 House candidate MJ Hegar tied 9-9 with nonprofit director Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, while state Sen. Royce West and Houston City Councilor Amanda Edwards each take 8%, and former Rep. Chris Bell earns 7%.
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: EMILY's List has endorsed state Auditor Nicole Galloway, who remains the only notable Democrat running against GOP Gov. Mike Parson.
House
● CA-25: Lancaster City Councilwoman Angela Underwood-Jacobs has dropped out and endorsed former Rep. Steve Knight, a fellow Republican. Underwood-Jacobs had struggled to raise money despite being in the race for months, and her exit leaves Knight and Navy veteran Mike Garcia as the only notable Republicans left in the contest.
Meanwhile, Rep. Alan Lowenthal is the latest Democrat representing part of Los Angeles County to endorse state Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who has the support of a number of prominent local Democrats.
● GA-06: GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson has endorsed former Rep. Karen Handel for the Republican nomination here. The only notable Republican foe that Handle faces is construction company owner Marjorie Greene after Merchant Marine veteran Nicole Rodden ended her campaign on Monday, which followed state Sen. Brandon Beach recently doing the same.
● HI-02: Former Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho has endorsed state Sen. Kai Kahele rather than run for the Democratic nomination himself. Kahele is thus far the only notable Democrat running to replace Rep. Tulsi Gabbard in this safely blue open seat.
● IL-03: A leaked strategy document prepared for Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski and newly obtained by the Chicago Sun-Times advised the congressman to employ a two-faced strategy to win over different groups of voters, most notably by touting his vote against the Affordable Care Act when messaging Republicans while simultaneously extolling his votes to oppose repealing Obamacare when talking to independents.
The memo also urged that Lipinski's campaign encourage Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary in March by "reaching out to GOP officeholders" and "getting letters from 'GOP surrogates.'" This is very much possible under Illinois' system of "open" primaries, where voters do not register by party. Instead, they declare their affiliation at their polling place and receive whichever party's ballot they prefer.
In last year's primary, when Lipinski narrowly edged progressive challenger Marie Newman by a 51-49 margin, he very likely survived thanks to Republican voters crossing over to support him. That left Newman's backers gnashing their teeth, and now they have much firmer evidence that Lipinski will pursue precisely this strategy in his rematch against Newman in 2020.
Lipinski, naturally, has sought to downplay the memo: He claimed he hadn't seen the document until he spoke with the Sun-Times, saying that "this is not anything that I have approved" and adding that the proposals "are not necessarily my thoughts." But some, apparently, are: Speaking of "talking points" that described him with phrases like "vote conscience" and "doesn't check the wind," Lipinski said, "I think it's a good summary, probably, of how I see myself …"
Yet Lipinski did not disavow the document, and there's reason to think his outreach to Republicans could be even more successful this time. That's because last year, the GOP waged a hard-fought battle in the race for governor at the top of the ticket. Next year, though, Republicans won't have much on their side of the ledger, since Donald Trump will easily be renominated. GOP voters will therefore have even more incentive to ask for Democratic ballots.
There's a countervailing force at work here, though, because the Democrats' presidential primary will also take place the same day and will likely still be in full swing by mid-March. If that contest draws out large numbers of more liberal voters eager to cast ballots for candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders—both of whom have endorsed Newman—Lipinski could find himself washed out to sea no matter how much GOP support he can finagle.
● MD-06: Republican state Del. Neil Parrott is reportedly going to announce on Thursday that he's running against Democratic Rep. David Trone. Parrott set an up exploratory committee a while back in the hope that this seat would be redrawn after it got struck down by a lower court in 2018 for illegal Democratic gerrymandering. However, the Supreme Court's conservative majority overturned that decision earlier this year in a 5-4 ruling that banned future federal challenges to partisan gerrymandering.
Consequently, Parrott would be running for a seat that leans decidedly toward Team Blue. Hillary Clinton won here by 55-40 in 2016, and Trone won his first term by a 59-38 margin last year. The wealthy Trone won't be lacking for campaign resources, and it would take a lot to go right for Parrott to put this seat into play.
● MN-08: Former Rep. Rick Nolan has endorsed diabetes treatment advocate Quinn Nystrom, who is so far the only noteworthy Democrat running against freshman GOP Rep. Pete Stauber.
● NY-02: Former Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy and Suffolk County Legislature Minority Leader Tom Cilmi have both told Newsday that they won't seek the Republican nomination to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Pete King.
● PA-01: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that national Democrats including the DCCC and EMILY's List are dissatisfied with the existing field of candidates seeking the nomination to challenge Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in this Philadelphia suburbs district. The DCCC unsuccessfully sought to recruit former Rep. Patrick Murphy, and Democrats also tried to recruit Bucks County Commissioner Diane Ellis-Marseglia to no avail.
The Democratic field currently includes Bucks County Prothonotary Judi Reiss, Bucks County housing department official Christina Finello, Pennsbury school board member Debbie Wachspress, and businessman Skyler Hurwitz. During third quarter fundraising, Wachspress led the way with $146,000 raised, $69,000 self-funded, and $191,000 in cash-on-hand, while neither Reiss nor Finello broke six digits, and Hurwitz only got in the race in November after the quarter ended. By contrast, Fitzpatrick hauled in $402,000 and held $1.1 million in the bank as of the start of October.
As one of just three Republican-held districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, Pennsylvania's 1st District is a prime offensive opportunity for Democrats in 2020. However, it remains to be seen whether anyone currently in the race has what it takes to win what is likely to be a very expensive contest.