The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● Electoral System Reform: Voters in the Portland, Oregon area have approved two local ballot measures that will implement a sweeping set of changes to the electoral system in both Portland and surrounding Multnomah County, along with reforms to the structure of the city's government itself. By a 58-42 margin, Portland voters have passed Measure 26-228, which amends the city charter to reshape the balance of powers between the mayor and city council while adopting ranked-choice voting for both offices, which will additionally implement a form of proportional representation for the council.
Currently, candidates for mayor and the Portland’s legislative body, known as the Council of Commissioners, compete in nonpartisan primaries where a subsequent runoff between the top two finishers is held if no candidate wins an initial majority. The mayor and the four Council members each lead different city bureaus with the assignments being given out by the mayor, who almost always takes the police commissioner spot.
But Measure 26-228, which was drafted by the local charter review commission, will end the Rose City's status as the last major city in America to still use this commission-based system in city government, which is a legacy of the Progressive Era. Under the newly adopted reform, the mayor will be elected using ranked-choice voting and instead will supervise an appointed city manager who will run the bureaus.
Meanwhile, the Council will expand from four to 12 members elected under a variant of proportional representation called single transferable voting, which uses ranked-choice voting in multi-seat districts. Under this plan, each of the four districts will use a ranked choice process until there are just three victorious Council candidates left per district, effectively meaning it will take at least 25% support for a candidate to get elected to one of the three spots, replacing winner-take-all elections with a system allowing more political diversity.
Portland will thus become the first major American city in many decades to adopt a form of proportional representation, which was once more commonly used in the mid-20th Century in dozens of major cities including New York City but has since been repealed in all but the smaller municipality of Cambridge, Massachusetts. Proportional representation is very commonly used in many other countries at various levels of government, though, and Portland’s newly adopted system most closely resembles the variant used to elect Ireland's parliament.
Meanwhile, voters in Multnomah County, which contains all but about 2,000 of Portland's 653,000 residents and also includes some of its adjacent suburbs, have passed Measure 26-232 by a 69-31 margin to adopt the single-winner form of ranked-choice voting for county offices. Consequently, almost all Rose City voters will now use ranked ballots for both their city and county elections.
Finally, in an ironic coincidence, Portland, Oregon wasn’t the only city with that name to adopt proportional representation on Tuesday. By a 64-36 margin, voters in Portland, Maine also approved Question 4, which amends their city charter to direct the City Council to adopt a similar PR system using ranked-choice voting in multi-seat districts. Several other cities and counties across the country also voted on their own electoral system reforms on Tuesday, the results of which we will cover in a subsequent edition of the Digest.
georgia runoff
● GA-Sen: The DSCC has announced that it will spend $7 million on get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, an overtime contest that's guaranteed to attract massive amounts of money from both sides. Indeed, the NRSC is already airing its first runoff ad tying Warnock to the Biden administration, a tactic Republicans used immensely during the first round of voting.
Called Races
Below we’re recapping a number of races that were called Thursday, as well as a host of lesser-known but important elections that took place this week. Quite a few contests remain uncalled, but we’re tracking all of them on our continually updated cheat-sheet, and of course we’ll cover each of them in the Digest once they’re resolved.
governors
● OR-Gov: Tina Kotek has won a competitive three-way contest to succeed her fellow Democrat, termed-out incumbent Kate Brown, in a state where Team Blue has controlled the governor’s office since 1987. Kotek is the first lesbian elected governor of any state, a distinction she shares with Massachusetts Democrat Maura Healey.
Kotek leads Republican Christine Drazan 47-43 as of Friday morning with 85% of the Associated Press’ estimated vote in, with conservative Democrat-turned-independent Betsy Johnson taking 9%. Johnson performed better than any nonaligned candidate running for this post since 1990, but she very much seems to have lost altitude during the final weeks of the campaign. Johnson’s decline was probably very good news for Kotek, as limited polling showed the independent drawing more support from Democrats than Republicans.
House
● CA-37: State Sen. Sydney Kamlager has decisively beaten former Los Angeles City Councilwoman Jan Perry in an all-Democratic race to succeed Rep. Karen Bass, who gave up her seat to run for mayor. Kamlager holds a 62-38 edge with 59% of the estimated vote in.
● CA-40: Republican Rep. Young Kim has held off Democrat Asif Mahmood in this eastern Orange County constituency. With 63% in, Kim leads 59-41 in a contest that attracted relatively little outside spending from Republicans and about nothing from Democrats.
● MT-01: Republican Ryan Zinke is going back to the House after defeating Democrat Monica Tranel 50-46 in this newly created eastern Montana seat.
● NV-01, NV-03, NV-04: The Nevada Independent has called wins for all three Democratic members of the Silver State’s House delegation, each of whom are based in the Las Vegas area.
With a little more than 90% of the AP’s projected vote in for each seat, 1st District Rep. Dina Titus is beating Republican Mark Robertson 51-47, while fellow incumbent Susie Lee holds a 51-49 advantage over Republican April Becker in the 3rd. Rep. Steven Horsford, finally, edged out Republican Sam Peters 51.5-48.5 in the 4th. These margins may shift as the state’s remaining ballots, which are likely to favor Democrats, are counted.
Last year, Democrats made the risky decision to make Titus’ once-safe seat competitive in order to help Lee and Horsford. Many politicos, including Titus herself, predicted this would bring about disaster for the party, but Team Blue instead ended up going three for three after an unexpectedly strong night.
● WA-08: Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier has fended off Republican Matt Larkin in an expensive fight for a competitive seat that includes the eastern Seattle suburbs and part of Central Washington. Schrier currently leads Larkin 52-48 with 70% of the estimated vote in.
attorneys general and secretaries of state
● NV-AG: The Nevada Independent has projected that Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford has defeated far-right extremist Sigal Chattah. The incumbent enjoys a 50-44 edge with 90% of the AP’s estimated vote in, which is the strongest margin by far for any statewide Democrat.
Chattah made a name for herself before this campaign by suing to undermine the state's pandemic response measures and complaining that the attorney general has done a poor job investigating (baseless, of course) voter fraud allegations. Months before the primary a former Chattah friend named Sarah Ashton-Cirillo also shared an old text where the candidate said that Ford, who is the first African American to hold statewide office, “should be hanging from a (expletive) crane.”
Chattah responded that she used that term all the time, insisting, “When I say to my friends, ‘I’m going to hang you from a crane,’ I don’t literally mean I’m going to hang you from a crane.” Ashton-Cirillo agreed that Chattah wasn’t being racist but said, “I ran it because I believe that she’s unfit from an emotional standpoint, to understand how to interact in a position of that magnitude of being attorney general.”
Team Blue very much wanted her as Ford's opponent, though, as a Democratic group ran radio ads slamming her primary foe, Tisha Black, over her 2015 donation to now-Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak while calling Chattah a "MAGA conservative." Primary voters responded by nominating Chattah, but she proved to be too much for even some prominent Republicans. Former state GOP chair Amy Tarkanian crossed party lines over the summer to endorse Ford over Chattah, whom she called "an unprepared, dangerous candidate who lacks the experience, foresight and temperament to be able to do right by Nevadans."
● WA-SoS: Appointed Secretary of State Steve Hobbs has become the first Democrat to win this office since 1964 now that his opponent, independent Julie Anderson, has conceded their special election. Hobbs leads Anderson 49-47 with 70% of the estimated vote in, while write-ins make up the balance. Extremist state Rep. Brad Klippert launched a write-in campaign weeks before Election Day (no Republicans advanced out of the August top-two primary for this post), and it’s possible this belated effort made all the difference.
Hobbs last year became the first Democrat to hold this post since the LBJ era when Gov. Jay Inslee picked him to succeed Republican Kim Wyman, who resigned to join the Biden administration to oversee election security. He will be up for a full four-year term in 2024.
Ballot Measures
● AZ Ballot: Proposition 131, which would finally create a lieutenant governor's post in Arizona, leads 55-45 with 82% of the Associated Press' estimated vote tabulated, but the AP has not yet called the contest. If a majority supports Prop. 131, nominees for governor would choose a running mate after their primary starting in 2026. The secretary of state is next in line for the governorship under the current law.
● CA Ballot: California voters overwhelmingly rejected three ballot measures after extremely expensive and contentious campaigns. Some margins may change as more votes are tabulated, but there's no question about the fate of this trio.
Californians gave the thumbs down to Proposition 26, which would legalize sports betting at Native American tribal casinos and racetracks, 70-30. But they were even less enthusiastic about Prop. 27, a rival proposal to allow online sports betting, which crashed and burned 83-17. Altogether $450 million was spent in support or opposition to one of these measures, which made them the most expensive campaign of the year.
Voters also said no to Prop. 30, which turned into a pricey fight between Lyft and Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, 59-41. This measure would have increased income taxes on those making about $2 million in order to fund "zero-emission vehicle purchases," charging stations, and "wildfire-related activities." The "yes" side had the support of the state Democratic Party and several environmental groups, as well as generous funding from Lyft. Newsom, though, starred in TV ads where he warned viewers, "Prop. 30 is a Trojan horse that puts corporate welfare above the fiscal welfare of our entire state."
● IL Ballot: Amendment 1, which would enshrine "the fundamental right to organize and to bargain collectively" into the state constitution, appears to have passed under Illinois' unusual rules, though the AP has not yet called the race.
The state constitution says, "A proposed amendment shall become effective as the amendment provides if approved by either three-fifths of those voting on the question or a majority of those voting in the election." Amendment 1 is ahead 58-42 with 96% in, so unless a large proportion of voters just skipped over this question, it's likely it took the majority "of those voting in the election" it needs.
● MA Ballot: Massachusetts voters narrowly approved Question 1, which is more commonly identified as the "millionaires tax" or "Fair Share Amendment," 52-48 after a very expensive campaign from both sides, a margin much closer than the polls showed.
This state constitutional amendment adds an extra 4% to personal income taxes for incomes over $1 million in order to fund education and transportation projects. As WBUR explains, "For example, a taxpayer earning $2 million will pay the state's current 5% tax rate on the first $1 million. The second million dollars will be taxed under a higher rate: 9%. That adds up to an extra $40,000 in state income taxes."
● MO Ballot: Voters delivered a 63-37 victory for Amendment 4 to allow the GOP-dominated legislature to "increase the minimum funding" for the police in Kansas City―and only Kansas City. The City of Fountains is the only city in Missouri, and possibly the whole country, that doesn't have control over its own police force: Instead, four of the five members of its board of police commissioners are appointed by the governor, while the mayor holds the final slot.
That mayor, Democrat Quinton Lucas, has blasted Amendment 4 by arguing, "The question to me is just very simply about who can try to leverage that they have more power, who can make Kansas City continue to be more of a colony, who can better silence, in particular, the Black voices in this city." Lucas also dubbed it "one of the worst, most offensive ballot measures to have ever been placed on the Missouri ballot."
Legislative Republicans earlier this year passed a bill to require the city to devote 25% of its budget to the police, up from the 20% level currently in place, but existing laws would have prevented it from going into effect without Amendment 4. KCUR says that the constitutional amendment, which applies to any laws passed before the end of 2026, was "overwhelmingly rejected" by Kansas City voters, but that didn't matter.
● SD Ballot: South Dakota voters approved Amendment D, which will expand eligibility to Medicaid, by a 56-44 margin. Republican legislative leaders previously tried to stop this from happening by placing a measure on the June primary ballot that would have required constitutional amendments like this one to earn at least 60% of the vote. Voters overwhelmingly rejected that plan, though, so Amendment D needed only a simple majority to pass on Tuesday.
● Minimum Wage: Voters in Washington D.C. passed a referendum to raise the minimum wage for tipped employees, while their counterparts in Portland, Maine rejected an even more far-reaching plan that would have also extended the minimum wage to gig workers.
D.C.'s Initiative 82, which would increase the $5.35 minimum wage for tipped employees to match the $16.10 requirement for non-tipped employees by 2027, won 74-26. Voters approved a similar proposal in 2018 only for the D.C. Council to junk it, but the council member who led those repeal efforts said just before Election Day that he had "no plans" to do it again.
But Portland's Question D, which would have also raised the citywide minimum wage to $18, failed 61-39 despite the backing of former rivals Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. The "no" coalition included the National Restaurant Industry, which also tried to take down Initiative 92, as well as Uber and DoorDash.
Two state-level ballot measures to raise the minimum wage also passed. Nebraska voters supported Initiative 433, which would increase the minimum wage from $9 to $15 by 2026 and index it to inflation thereafter, 58-42. Nevada's Question 2, meanwhile, is ahead 54-45 with 90% of the projected vote in, and the Nevada Independent has called the race. This proposal would elevate the minimum wage to $12 by 2024 but remove inflation adjustments: It also would let the legislature pass a minimum wage law higher than the constitutionally mandated minimum.
● Voting Rights: Voting rights-related measures were on the ballot in a handful of states on Tuesday, and the outcomes so far have been a mixed bag for voting access. On the positive side, Connecticut voters backed constitutional amendment Question 1 to allow for in-person early voting by a 60-40 margin. Michigan voters by that same 60-40 margin approved Proposal 2, which amends their state constitution to guarantee in-person early voting, strengthen access to absentee voting, and protect the election certification process from partisan attempts to subvert it like some Republicans tried to do in 2020.
On the other hand, Nebraska voters passed Initiative 432 by 66-34 to amend their constitution to require photo voter ID. Ohioans also passed GOP-backed Issue 2 by 77-23 to ostensibly ban noncitizen voting in local elections (even though no locality already allowed it), but by replacing a constitutional guarantee that "every citizen" has the right to vote with a limitation that "only a citizen" has voting rights, the amendment subtly weakens voting protections potentially even for citizens.
Meanwhile in Arizona where the results haven't been called yet, GOP-backed Proposition 309 would make Arizona's voter ID statute more restrictive by disallowing alternative non-photo IDs for in-person voting and also require birthdates and voter ID numbers to vote by mail; currently, mail voters without a photo ID can sign an affidavit where their signature is verified by comparing it with the signature on their voter registration form on file. Voters are currently rejecting it 51-49 as of Friday morning with 82% of the estimated vote in, but enough uncounted votes are remaining to potentially change that outcome.
Statewide Office
● IA Auditor: It appears that Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand has prevented Republicans from taking every statewide office by narrowly turning back challenger Todd Halbur, though Halbur is asking for a recount.
Iowa Starting Line's Pat Rynard says that Sand holds a 2,614-vote edge with all counties reporting―a margin of 50.1-49.9―which Rynard writes "ought to be enough to withstand any additions from provisional ballots or other issues." Rynard adds that "barring some unknown issue, Iowa recounts typically do not change vote totals enough to change a statewide lead of that number."
A Sand win would almost certainly leave him as his party's most prominent member after a tough night for Hawkeye State Democrats. Republicans won close races against a pair of 10-term incumbents, Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald, while Zach Nunn's victory against Rep. Cindy Axne means that Iowa will send an all-GOP delegation to Congress.
Governors
● MS-Gov: State House Speaker Philip Gunn announced Wednesday that he would not seek re-election to the legislature next year, but he once again did not rule out a GOP primary bid against Gov. Tate Reeves. "Well, I'm flattered you would ask," Gunn told reporters when they brought up the topic, "Right now, I'm the speaker. I'll always look, see if there's another area of service that might open up, but right now that's where I'm at."
Several other notable Republicans have publicly or privately shown some interest in challenging Reeves, though no one has jumped in yet ahead of the Feb. 1 candidate filing deadline. The primary will take place Aug. 8, with a runoff three weeks later for any races where no one earned a majority of the vote.
House
● IL-12: The Chicago Tribune wrote Wednesday, just hours after state Sen. Darren Bailey's campaign against Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker came to its predictable conclusion, that unnamed "[p]olitical associates" of GOP Rep. Mike Bost "have privately expressed concerns Bailey is eyeing a primary challenge" for 2024 in the safely red 12th District.
Mayors
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Rep. Chuy Garcia announced Thursday that he would challenge his fellow Democrat, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, in the busy Feb. 28 nonpartisan primary. Garcia, who would be the city's first Latino leader, waged a high-profile 2015 bid to unseat Mayor Rahm Emanuel, but he lost the runoff 56-44. Garcia was elected to the House three years later, and he would only need to give up his safely blue 4th District if he defeated Lightfoot.
While Garcia himself endorsed Lightfoot in her 2019 campaign to succeed Emanuel, he explained this week, "I gave Lori Lightfoot a chance to deliver on promises she made as it relates to reform, and she has not delivered." He continued, "She's caused unnecessary conflict. She has called people out in public instead of having difficult conversations in her office or behind the scenes, where all of these things are not exposed." Garcia himself got his start in elected office in the 1980s as an ally of the city's first Black mayor, the late Harold Washington, and he launched his campaign on the 40th anniversary of Washington's own kickoff.
Lightfoot's team, meanwhile, quickly went on the offensive and tried to use his position in what will likely be a closely divided House against him. "Mr. Garcia spent months dithering on whether to get in this race, saying publicly he'd only run if Democrats lost the House," her campaign said, adding, "Now, a mere 36 hours after voters reelected him to Congress, and as Republicans prepare to use their new slim majority to strip away our rights, Mr. Garcia is abandoning ship."
While Garcia is Lightfoot's most prominent foe, however, he very much doesn't have the contest to himself. Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson entered the race last month weeks after receiving endorsements from Garcia's old allies at the Chicago Teachers Union and United Working Families: UWF's executive director said that, while the congressman had urged the organization to remain neutral while he made up his mind, "It's just our experience in previous campaigns that you never get time back and we don't have unlimited money to make that up." Johnson on Wednesday also earned the backing of another prominent group, SEIU Local 73.
The field includes several other notable contenders. One familiar name is self-funding perennial candidate Willie Wilson, who took fourth place in the 2019 race with 10% one year before he waged a doomed independent campaign against Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin. The contest also includes Aldermen Sophia King, Raymond Lopez, and Roderick Sawyer; state Rep. Kam Buckner; and former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, who snagged ninth last time with just 5%.
Other politicians, including former Gov. Pat Quinn, have been collecting petitions ahead of the Nov. 28 filing deadline without committing to running. If no one earns a majority in the February primary, the two contenders with the most votes would advance to an April 4 general election.