We have a court appointed master, Jonathan Cervas, to make a map for the NY Congressional delegation. The good news is Republicans howled loudly that the map he made in Pennsylvania was unfair to them. The bad news is it was still a map that still favored Republicans. Worse news is he is under the direction of a judge handpicked by Republicans who will approve the final draft of the map. Chances are it means the special master probably follows past trends in court redistricting. Keep past districts intact without interfering with incumbents. So view this as a “worst case scenario” we hope to never see.
Yet the judgement talks all about cracking and packing “minority party” voters and talks about other areas such as South Brooklyn and upstate New York. Republicans used the example of the longstanding Rochester district as being unfair in their law suit. Something I take into consideration. And I take it all to it’s extreme.
How this map will differ from my last one ( www.dailykos.com/... ) is I am aiming at maximizing the number of districts that are competitive. Not necessarily the number Republicans can hold long term. Just keeping the 8 seats Republicans currently hold would take work all by itself.
And this is the Achilles' heel in trying to gerrymander such a Democratic state to give Republicans the maximum number of chances to contest seats. A maximum Republican gerrymander is a shallow dummymander where a bad year may give Republicans results every bit as bad as a Democratic gerrymander.
So my pro-Republican map with 10 seats with a PVI favoring Republicans and 12 that Republicans can win? Only 5 are districts where Trump got over 51% of the vote. Only five seats have a Republican PVI above +3. And one of those seats is odd enough that I could see a conservadem winning it.
And this is an important point I want to make. While the whole affair may bite for the next election cycle and I know full well that is a vital one for a whole host of reasons; New York's Democratic Party inclinations are hard to hold back despite the many obstacles that are thrown our way. Even a “bad map” is something that can work itself out over an extended period of time.
TL;DR. Map is biased towards making a large number of seats that are potentially competitive and gives no consideration to the needs or desires of incumbents.
The map.
davesredistricting.org/...
A twitter post to show you what things look like.
PVI’s are based on 2016/2020 Presidential numbers generated from Dave’s Redistricting app. PVI tells you how much more Republican or Democratic a seat is than the country as a whole.
Probabilities are based on current trends pointing to a good Republican year nationally in 2022. And not necessarily how they will perform for the entire ten year cycle.
District — 01. Old PVI — R+5.77, New PVI — R+3.69
Incumbent: Lee Zeldin (running for Governor).
Probability: Likely Republican.
Comments: Unlike my last map this can be in reach. But definitely not in 2022.
District — 02. Old PVI — R+4.89, New PVI — R+4.99
Incumbent: Andrew Garbarino.
Probability: Likely Republican.
Comments: Like Pete King before him Andrew Garbarino fits the district well. Even if the numbers were less friendly he would be tough to beat. Yet the partisan lean is just 53.6% to 46.34%. In a bad Republican year if a Democrat plays their cards right it can be won.
District — 03. Old PVI — D+3, New PVI — R+2.38
Incumbent — Tom Suozzi (running for Governor).
Probability: Likely Republican.
Comments: Suozzi is off running for Governor after having a scare in his last run for re-election. It is a good guess it will go Republican in 2022. But it is a district that is nearly 50-50 in the last two Presidential cycles. So it is not out of reach in the future
District — 04. Old PVI — D+4.02, New PVI — D+8.29
Incumbent: Kathleen Rice (retiring), Tom Suozzi (running for Governor)
Probability: Likely Democrat
Comments: Kathleen Rice’s seat is effectively eliminated in this map in part from Gregory Meeks expanding his reach in Nassau to pick up additional African-American voters. In fact it contains a lot of Suozzi territory. But we’ll just go with Rice to keep the numbering neat.
Both this district and district 6 are plurality Asian (within the Democratic primary) and have a large Chinese population. Grace Meng likely runs in 7 to stay out of the way from the large number of people running for Suozzi’s seat who will likely pivot here.
District — 05. Old PVI — D+33.89, New PVI — D+30.53
Incumbent: Gregory Meek
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: With New York districts increasing in size and popular and his district become more diverse he is kept safe and sound with an infusion of African-American voters from Hempstead.
District — 06. Old PVI — D+13.11, New PVI — D+19.06
Incumbent: Grace Meng
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Meng will either run in this or the 4th. Asian Americans are around 36% or 37% of the voting population in both. And should be larger within the Democratic Party due to many white voters being registered Republicans.
District — 07. Old PVI — D+34.38, New PVI — R+5.42
Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez
Probability: Lean Republican, but….
Comments: Like in District 4 we are using Nydia’s numbers for placeholding purposes because her district is eliminated and her home is in the 14th. To be clear she is NOT VRA protected and in fact her original district was struck down in a Supreme Court decision limiting the ability to create gerrymandered districts specifically for racial or ethnic groupings.
The new 7th is the Republicans wish for a Republican South Brooklyn centered district. It’s basically the State Senate “Super Jewish” district expanded to include a large number of Jewish Russian voters as well. It also includes a large number of Asian voters.
However someone like (or perhaps even the man himself) Simcha Felder could win the district for the Democrats. And for better or worse it has to be someone like him. Not a moderate Democrat like Ari Kagan or Mark Treyger. But a conservadem who would be willing to sit with Republicans if they had the majority. But would be willing to sit with us if we had the majority.
Not ideal. But a vote that can be bargained for is better than a sure vote in Republican hands.
District — 08. Old PVI — D+33.3 New PVI — D+40.64
Incumbent: Hakeem Jeffries and Yvette Clarke
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Technically neither live in it but one will move. Again like last time to show why these two districts are so oddly shaped. To account for where the incumbents live.
District — 09. Old PVI — D+32.11 New PVI — D+40.95
Incumbent: Hakeem Jeffries and Yvette Clarke
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Technically both live in it but one will move.
District — 10. Old PVI — D+36.14 New PVI — D+35.11
Incumbent: Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney and Nydia Velazquez
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: All three don’t live in lower Manhattan. One will move in. In the past I would guess Nadler but given he has not looked so good lately might be Maloney. But that might be a reason for Nydia Velazquez to move in and dare Nadler to retire. Especially since the alternative for Velazquez would be a race against Democratic Party star, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
District — 11. Old PVI — R+6.72 New PVI — R+1.77
Incumbent: Nicole Malliotakis
Probability: Lean Republican
Comments: Max Rose would have won re-election with this seat in 2020. But incumbency has it’s advantages and Nicole would be favored for 2022. There is also no guarantee Max Rose wins the primary against Brittany Ramos DeBarros. That is not to say Max Rose might not upset again. Worth spending resources on.
District — 12. Old PVI — D+31, New PVI — D+39.08
Incumbent: Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney.
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Both Nadler and Maloney live here. One will have to move into lower Manhattan for both to remain in Congress.
District — 13. Old PVI — D+38.46, New PVI — D+37
Incumbent: Adriano Espaillat
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Less Manhattan, more Bronx. Still plenty of his base of Dominicans.
District — 14. Old PVI —D+25.45, New PVI — D+25.26
Incumbent: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Nydia Velazquez
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Map combines Red Hook and woke Brooklyn with the People’s Republic of Astoria and Jackson Heights.. It’s a great map for AOC building on her base in Queens, But at the expense of the home she may or may not actually live in the Bronx. If she stayed here she could more easily challenge Nydia Velazquez who may not be able to survive without her Puerto Rican base. If AOC contested the 15th she would be in a district far less woke white against another emerging star in Ritchie Torres. Additionally if she stayed in the 14th she might scare Nydia into running in the 11th in Lower Manhattan instead.
District — 15. Old PVI —D+39.42, New PVI — D+35.97
Incumbent: Ritchie Torres and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Both live in the district. Or at least AOC officially does. DSA would love this matchup as they hate Ritchie Torres guts. But AOC would have a much higher chance of losing here and would be running on a lot of foreign turf as well as turf she did not necessarily win against Joseph Crowley. I assume she stays in Queens where she is strongest.
District — 16. Old PVI — D+24.93, New PVI — D+19.79
Incumbent — Jamaal Bowman
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Good news for Bowman? His current primary opponent Vedat Gashi is out of the district. Bad new for Bowman? Alessandra Biaggi is now in it and redistricted out of running for the Congressional seat she originally wanted to. And she would be a much tougher opponent if she decides she still wants to run for Congress.
District — 17. Old PVI — D+8.75, New PVI — D+4.02
Incumbent — Mondaire Jones
Probability: Likely Democrat
Comments: A bit weaker but should still be in good shape unless he does something stupid.
District — 18. Old PVI — R+0.77, New PVI — R+2.49
Incumbent — None.
Probability: With Sean Patrick Malone Tossup-Tilt Democrat. If Sean Patrick Maloney runs against Delgado in the 19th instead it’s Likely Republican.
Comments: This is Sean Patrick Maloney’s district even though his home isn’t in it.. If he runs again he will have to put everything into running and may have to step down from his post at the DCCC. If he doesn’t want to move but instead run against Antonio Delgado we will lose it.
District — 19. Old PVI — R+3, New PVI — D+5.86.
Incumbent — Antonio Delgado, Sean Patrick Maloney
Probability: Likely Democrat
Comments: I should mention not only do these two live in the district but it contains a lot of the Democratic votes in Paul Tonko’s district including the city of Albany. All three might run even if you would hope they would defend what is the bulk of their old districts.
District — 20. Old PVI — R+7.89, New PVI — R+2.53
Incumbent: Paul Tonko, Elise Stefanik
Probability: Lean Republican if Tonko runs here, Likely Republican if he does not.
Comments: Paul Tonko’s district is effectively eliminated and he lives in the wrong part. Welcome to a North Country district Congressman Tonko.
District — 21. Old PVI — R+9, New PVI — R+10.42
Incumbent: Claudia Tenney
Probability: Safe Republican
Comments: Goes all the way up to North Country. Just like 20..
District — 22 (old 24). Old PVI — D+1.75, New PVI — D+1.34
Incumbent: Tom Katko
Probability: Tossup-Tilt Republican
Comments: This district should go Democratic. But Syracuse seem to always fall short. Will this year be different? Past history says no.
District — 23. Old PVI — n/a, New PVI — R+1.66
Probability: Likely Republican
Incumbents: none
Comments: The presence of Ithaca and other college towns is likely to keep it within reach. But probably not as an open seat upstate in 2022.
District — 24 (old 27). Old PVI — R+12, New PVI — D+11.75
Incumbent: Chris Jacobs
Probability: Safe Republican
Comments: Smooth sailing.
District — 25. Old PVI — D+8.49, New PVI — D+1.26
Incumbent: Tom Morelle
Probability: Tossup-Tilt Democrat
Comment: Republicans get their wish as the district encompasses Lake Ontario almost to Niagra Falls.
District — 26. Old PVI — D+8.49, New PVI — D+9.48
Incumbent: Brian Higgins
Probability: Safe Democrat
Comments: Buffalo does throw Democrats a surprise every so often. Let’s hope we’re not overdue.
Scoreboard.
Stated biases. No open seat without an incumbent is safe, incumbents all given an advantage.
Safe Republican — 2
Likely Republican — 5 (I believe Sean Patrick Maloney would primary Delgado rather than defend his district)
Lean Republican — 3
Tossup/Tilt Republican — 1
Tossup/Tilt Democrat — 1
Lean Democrat — 0
Likely Democrat — 3
Safe Democrats — 11
Predicted outcome of map — 15 Democrats, 11 Republicans
Highwater Republican outcome — 14 Democrats, 12 Republicans
Highwater Democratic outcome — 19 Democrats, 7 Republicans
After thoughts. Most Republican PVIs are not very intimidating because they aren’t. And that is the price of trying to get them competitive in as many places as possible. Seats I’m listing as likely Republican may not stay that way in 2024. In a strong Republican year it can fall to as low as the four seats Republicans were given in the Democratic gerrymander. First rule of redistricting is don’t be too greedy.