For two cycles in a row now, we’ve had an unusual number of House Republicans losing their primaries: six in 2022 and five in 2020, not counting losses to another incumbent as a result of incumbent-versus-incumbent primaries arising from redistricting. As we watch the House GOP caucus eat its tail in an ouroboros of unhinged unreality, the threat of primaries is helping to keep the drama high and the, well, governing low.
So how unusual is it to have five or six Republican House incumbents losing to a nonincumbent in modern times? Well, very: Essentially, it hasn’t happened at all in the past few decades prior to the last two cycles. There were four losses in 1992, another redistricting year where many incumbents had to run in districts that were partially new to them, a risk even if they aren’t running against another incumbent. But other than that, most often there was just one primary loss per cycle.
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If we look at the details of who lost and why, not every loss is because a right-wing extremist beat a more moderate Republican (albeit still conservative; notably, two of the Republicans who lost to more extreme candidates even had Donald Trump’s endorsement). But most are, and that’s almost certainly enough to influence the behavior of House members. After all, even if you win a competitive primary, it’s still a lot more work than coasting through an election season unopposed.
Here are the House Republicans who lost primaries to a nonincumbent in the past two cycles, with links to Daily Kos Elections coverage at the time:
1. Scott Tipton lost in a surprise upset to the now-infamous Lauren Boebert in CO-03, even after getting Trump’s endorsement and raising about 10 times as much as Boebert.
2. Scandal-tarnished Ross Spano lost to Scott Franklin in FL-15 (now FL-18).
3. A weakened Steve King lost to Randy Feenstra in IA-04 after playing a little too much footsie with white supremacists.
4. Steve Watkins, a serial liar before it was cool, lost to Jake LaTurner in KS-02.
5. Denver Riggleman and his Bigfoot fantasies lost to Bob Good in VA-05. He, too, had Trump’s endorsement, but was caught not being homophobic. Note that Riggleman lost the nomination at the party convention, not via a primary.
6. Democracy-supporting Peter Meijer lost to John Gibbs in MI-03.
7. Absentee congressman Steven Palazzo lost to Mike Ezell in MS-04.
8. Madison Cawthorn lost to Chuck Edwards in NC-11 after being defenestrated by his own party for turning the insanity up to 11.
9. Democracy-supporting Tom Rice lost to Russell Fry in SC-07.
10. Democracy-supporting Jamie Herrera Beutler lost to Joe Kent in WA-03.
11. Democracy-supporting Liz Cheney lost to Harriet Hageman in WY-AL.
In several cases, scandals and controversy brought down the incumbent, the most obvious example being Madison Cawthorn. But we see four instances where representatives were specifically targeted by Trump for doing the right thing by supporting democracy and voting for impeachment. Additionally, Denver Riggleman arguably lost in major part for not being hateful enough. And then there’s the case of Lauren Boebert’s shocking win in CO-03, and we’re now all unfortunately very aware of her appeal to the conservative GOP base.
This also leaves out Republican incumbents who avoided a competitive primary altogether using one simple trick: They quit. That includes four more House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. Out of the 10 who voted in favor of democracy following the attempted coup, only two remain in the House today.
Such a record puts immense pressure on any current House Republicans who wants to keep their job to curry favor with, or at the very least avoid attracting the attention of, the delusional conspiratorial Republican base that votes in primaries. And in a world where ignoring reality usually means bumping up against some very unfortunate consequences, the current session of the House could result in some turbulent times.