• NV-Sen: The Tarrance Group, polling on behalf of Army veteran Sam Brown and his allies at the NRSC, finds Brown with a huge 58-6 lead over 2022 secretary of state nominee Jim Marchant ahead of the June 11 Republican primary. Former diplomat Jeff Gunter, who claims he's spending $3 million on ads, barely registers at just 3%. We haven't seen any other recent numbers from the race to take on Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.
• WV-Sen: Research America finds Gov. Jim Justice defeating Rep. Alex Mooney in a 66-24 landslide in the May 14 Republican primary to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. This poll, which was conducted for MetroNews and The Health Plan, a health insurance provider, is one of the few we've seen here all year, but no one seriously disputes the idea that Justice is the frontrunner.
Even Mooney's allies are acting apprehensive about spending more to try to boost his longshot effort. According to the FEC's site, the last notable pro-Mooney outside spending came in late February when a Club for Growth affiliate called Protect West Virginia Values deployed $523,000 on ads.
• NJ-Gov: Principled Veterans Fund, which the New Jersey Globe says "has connections" to Rep. Mikie Sherrill, has publicized a mid-March GQR poll that shows her leading in a hypothetical Democratic primary for governor next year:
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Rep. Mikie Sherrill: 23
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Newark Mayor Ras Baraka: 20
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Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney: 12
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Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop: 9
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Rep. Josh Gottheimer: 5
This is the first survey we've seen of the still-developing nomination contest to succeed the termed-out incumbent, Democrat Phil Murphy. Of the five people tested by GQR, only Baraka, Fulop, and Sweeney have announced that they're running.
• CA-20: Assemblyman Vince Fong has publicized an internal from WPA Intelligence that shows him defeating Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux 46-30 in the all-Republican May 21 special election to succeed former Rep. Kevin McCarthy.
This survey, which is the first we've seen of the race, comes after Fong outpaced his intra-party rival by double digits in two different elections last month. The assemblyman first led Boudreaux 39-25 in the March 5 top-two primary for a full term, and by a similar 42-26 spread on March 19 in the first round of the special election. Fong, who sports endorsements from McCarthy and Donald Trump, will face off against Boudreaux one more time on Nov. 5 for a spot in the next Congress.
• NC-13: A Republican running in a hotly contested runoff for an open House seat in North Carolina is about to find out whether her lead in the polls can withstand Donald Trump weighing in for her opponent.
Attorney Kelly Daughtry just released an early April internal poll giving her a wide 51-32 lead over former federal prosecutor Brad Knott in the May 14 runoff for the 13th District. Daughtry ought to be pleased because that represents a sizable improvement from her 41-37 edge in an unreleased March poll that was, like this latest survey, also conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.
But unfortunately for Daughtry, this newer poll was in the field mere days before Trump endorsed Knott on Truth Social. Trump also used his social media missive to blast Daughtry as someone who "has given money to Far Left Democrats, pledged to vote for Obama, and is no friend to MAGA."
The News & Observer's Danielle Battaglia explained in February that state and federal records showed Daughtry contributed a total of $2,550 to Democratic candidates since 1997. During that same timeframe, she also gave $44,000 to Republicans.
A super PAC funded by Knott's family called the American Foundations Committee ran ads ahead of the March 5 primary charging that Daughty had given "thousands to woke Democrats," and while this messaging wasn't enough to stop her from outpacing Knott 27-19 on March 5, she still failed to secure the 30% she needed to win outright.
After the first round of voting, the conservative Carolina Journal surfaced a 2012 Facebook post in which Daughtry wrote, "I’m voting for Obama so I'm just saying but I do find a lot wrong with both parties." In response, Daughtry said that, despite what she posted, she backed Mitt Romney that year.
Her campaign has also attacked Knott for serving as a federal prosecutor from 2016 through 2023, a tenure that was bookended by the Obama and Biden administrations. Knott, who told journalist Bryan Anderson that a Trump-picked U.S. Attorney turned his post from a temporary role into a full-time one, argued, "They are trying to paint me as someone who I’m not, an Obama-Biden lawyer."