After Kay Hagan defeat this year senator E Dole, North Carolina seems good place for win new senate seat in 2010. Kay Hagan, coming from NC Senate can win incunbent senator, that is so significant and open doors for much possible democratic candidates for next elections.
Incunbent senator R Burr not seems more strong than defeated E Dole. Burr and Dole was in their first term in senate after defeat in 2002 and 2004 with not high difference Erskine Bowles democratic candidate.
E Bowles was high level candidate but he try became senator in hard years for democratic candidates. Now political situation is different and the list of candidates who can win is so long.
This is the list of possible candidates:
- Erskine Boyce Bowles: NC 1945 White House Chief of Staff 97-98. Deputy White House Chief of Staff 94-95. Lost for senate 02 and 04.
- Johnny Reid Edwards: SC NC 1953 Senator from North Carolina 99-05. Lost for President 04 and 08.
- Michael Francis Easley: NC 1950 Governor of North Carolina 01-09. NC Attorney General 93-01. Lost for Senate 90.
- Beverly Eaves Perdue: VA NC 1947 Governor of North Carolina 09- . Lieutenant Governor of NC 01-09.
- Joseph Heath Shuler: NC 1971 USHRep 07- .
- Douglas Carmichael McIntyre II: NC 1956 USHRep 97- .
- Melvin Luther Watt: NC 1945 USHRep 93- .
- Bobby Ray Etheridge: NC 1941 USHRep 97- . NC Superintendent of P Instruction 89-96.
- Ralph Bradley Miller: NC 1953 USHRep 03- .
- Larry Kissel: NC 1951 USHRep 09- . Lost for House 06.
- George Kenneth Butterfield: NC 1947 USHRep 04- .
- Charles Robin Britt: TX NC 1942 USHRep 83-85. Lost for House 84 86 and 02.
- Harold Martin Lancaster: NC 1943 USHRep 87-95. Lost for House 94.
- Walter H Dalton: NC 1949 Lieutenant Governor of NC 09- .
- Dennis Alvin Wicker: NC 1952 Lieutenant Governor of NC 93-01. Lost for Governor 00.
- Roy A Cooper: NC 1957 NC Attorney General 01- .
- Janet Cowell: NC 1968 NC State Treasurer 09- .
- Elaine F Marshall: MD NC 1945 NC Secretary of State 96- . Lost for Senate 02.
- Beth Wood: NC 1954 NC State Auditor 09- .
- June St.Clair Atkinson: NC ? NC Superintendent of P Instruction 05- .
- George Wayne Goodwin: NC ? NC Commissioner of Insurance 09- .
In North Carolina, democratic candidates not have very high problems for win elections for state level offices. Few republicans win historically this offices. That make the list of possible candidates be long. But some of this candidates, like Berverly Perdue and others, have win their office in recent elections of 2008, that make they surely not run for new office in 2010.
In this list they are high level candidates. I dont think Erskine Bowles will run again but i think if he run, he can defeat now this republican incunbent. Maybe too John Edwards try run for their old seat, who know?. Mike Easleys popularity decreases last years but like former governor in 2010 can be other of high level candidates.
The polls for R Burr not are very goods. Good new for we. Candidates like R Cooper NC Attorney General seems can defeat R Burr.
After all this we can tell NC-Sen election in 2010 is very open in democratic side. I dont know who can be the best candidate.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: L Murkovski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ?
SD-Sen: J Thune (R-1961) vs ?
ID-Sen: M Crapo (R-1951) vs ?
SC-Sen: J DeMint (R-1951) vs J Hodges (D-1956) ?
AL-Sen: R Shelby (R-1934) vs J Folsom (D-1949) ?
GA-Sen: J Isakson (R-1944) vs ?
UT-Sen: R Bennett (R-1933) vs ?
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.