Tomorrow, February 11th (22 Bahman) is the Official Aniversary of the 1979 Revolution. As is tradition, there are typical Official Government sponsered events and rallies displaying the glory of the Revolution and in many cases highlighting of the particular goals of the current govenment. Now in 2010, the government is more fragile than any time since the early years of the Revolution.
In 1997, Khatami's landslide election reflected a public change in attitudes and hope for a country that was and is overwhemingly young. At no time, however, did Khatami represent a threat to the Islamic Republic itself. The current round of protest/repression however, does represent potential for a serious re-structuring of the exisitng power structures in Iran. Significant as the spontaneous protests in the aftermath of the June elections were, the longevity and tenacity of the Green/Reform Movement means more, and what is occuring now is a delicate dance between Formidible Government Power Structures and the Contagious Hope of the Youth for something better. Immovable Object, meet the Irresistible Force.
The June protests in the aftermath of the election caught the government by surprise. As a result they did not have any of their people in place to control where people could go and how many would be there. In addition, they did not organize their own pro-governemnt rally. This is why in June there were pictures like this of Azadi Square:
In quelling the June demonstrations many were beaten, arrested and even killed. These actions combined with a steady stream of government statements, including a few from Supreme Leader Khamenei, eventually removed the crowds from the streets. For the next few months the Green/Reform movement tried to display the June energy again, but failed to reach anything of the same scale. This changed with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's death in December and the Ashura protests a week later.
Montazeri represented both an intellectual and religious symbol of resistance. His criticism of the government was unmatched as was his status as a religious scholar. During observances in Qom and Isfahan, many of the religious community witnessed the repression of the government. This blew up again a week later during Ashura when the Green/Reform movement once again took the streets in large numbers. Ashura is a day of religious observance where large crowds gather in the streets for various plays and rituals that commemorate the death of Imam Hussein--the martyr of the Shi'a branch of Islam and symbol of the struggle against injustice.
The Ashura protests shifted many in the government to deal more harshly with the Green movement. As a result, since early January there have been numerous calls for arrest or execution of Mousavi and other leaders. The language has changed and many in the governemnt are calling protesters Mohareb, which means one at war with God. This is a crime punnishable by death. The government did execute two dissdents last week as an example, but those two men had been arrested before the June election and were not part of the post-election uprising. In the last week both Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have promised to deal " a massive blow to the arrogant foreign powers." This likely means that they are characterizing any protests on the aniversary of the Revolution as the action of foreign powers and therefore subject to massive repression. In addition the government promised to execute nine protesters from last summmer. So far--this has not happened.
The Green/Reform movement, for their part have also "upped the ante" in their rhetoric and Mousavi has compared the current government to the repressive Shah deposed in 1979. He has claimed that justice and equality--ideals of the Revolution--no longer belong to the ruling class but need to be re-established by the people. The Green leaders and the massive numbers withhin their de-centralized movement have planned for their protests tomorrow.
So, what does this mean, and what will possibly happen tomorrow?
The Governemnt wants to keep protests invisible. They are strictly controlling the position of the media and they have set up their Basiji and other auxillary forces to display the pro-government rallies in Azadi Square. They will spend a great deal of energy to limit access to any protesters to this area. Their goal is to show the picture of demonstraions on 22 Bahman as 100% behind the government. In the aftermath of such a success, they will likely stike hard at the Green Movement once and for all. In the past weeks they have also waged a steady campaign of intimidation to keep protesters from showing up. Law enforcement has claimed they can hear phone calls and read all text messages. The use of the word Mohareb is very frightening--because it carries the threat of a death sentence.
On the Green/Reform side, they need to put masses of people in the street and establish some safety in numbers. To succeed they need to penetrate the pro-government rallies. This will not be easy as the government has been preparing the areas around Azadi Square for days now. Access to the Square can be effectively controlled as there are only a few entry points. See pictures below:
If they do penetrate the pro-government rallies they will potentially achieve two goals:
- They will cause the governemnt to fail in showing uniform support, despite their complete control of the security apparatus.
- If they are repressed, beaten or worse, it will happen in full view of pro-government people that their government is violently repressing unarmed citizens. This can have an effect, as many pro-government people tend to honestly believe that the protesters are violent Marxist/Athiest agents of foreigners. It becomes harder to beleive this when you see kids that look just like your neighbors beaten to a pulp. Fear works well in the abstract, but when you are confronted with the reality of brutal repression, it is hard to back away from such an experience.
It remains impossible to know how this will play out tomorrow. I hope that the Green/Reform movement survives and finds a way to continue their journey in changing Iran to suit the lives that they want to lead. I do not think that a 1979 style Revolution is in the cards for a number of reasons, but I do beleive that the struggle for a more free society, more democracy and the guarantee of human rights will go on.
Additional Resources:
There have been a number of excellent articles out there on the upcoming conflict, here are a few:
Christian Science Monitor--Feb. 9th
CNN--Feb. 10th
CNN--Feb. 9th
Newsweek--Feb 9th
Previous Diaries on the Subject:
January 24th
February 2nd
February 4th
February 9th