In this installment of the Wyoming Rule, I take a look at Washington and New Mexico.
Under the Wyoming Rule, Washington would add 3 seats to their current 9-seat delegation. I ended up allocating these as 2 Democratic seats and 1 Republican seat. A secondary goal was to include a district that has less than 50% white VAP.
New Mexico adds 1 seat to bring them up to 4. I had a little fun with this state by putting as many Republicans as possible into NM-02 and by trying to put as many Native Americans as possible into the new district. The result is 2 Dem seats, 1 GOP seat, and 1 tossup that has a Republican CPVI.
Previous diaries:
ID, OK,TX, VA
Current seat count: 16D-53R
Washington state
WA-02 Rick Larsen (D-Everett)
Due to its location in the northwestern part of the state, it's hard to do anything to help Rep. Larsen. I'm not entirely sure that he lives here since Everett is now split, but he's close enough. The partisan breakdown is exactly the same as before.
50.5% Murray 49.5% Rossi
D+3
WA-03 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Camas)
WA-03 becomes the third north-south district in the eastern part of the state. In this configuration, it becomes decidedly more Republican.
39% Murray 61% Rossi
R+8
WA-04 Doc Hastings (R-Pasco)
Rep. Hastings district pushes east and now stretches from the Oregon border to the Canadian border. The most Republican district in the state becomes one point more Republican.
35% Murray 65% Rossi
R+14
WA-05 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane)
This size of this eastern Washington district is reduced drastically. It is now composed of all or most of 4 counties: Stevens, Pend Oreille, Spokane, and Whitman. It is one point less Republican than before.
42% Murray 58% Rossi
R+6
WA-06 Norm Dicks (D-Belfair)
Rep. Dicks' district sees some changes. It now encompasses the entire western coastline and instead of going into Tacoma, it goes into Olympia. The result of all these changes is...not much. CPVI stays the same.
53% Murray 47% Rossi
D+5
WA-12 Open
This is a new district in the southern part of the state that runs from Vancouver to the outskirts of Olympia. This is a Republican leaning district.
45% Murray 55% Rossi
R+5
Seattle
WA-01 Jay Inslee (D-Bainbridge Island)
Rep. Inslee's district compacts a little bit and is now exclusively in Kitsap and Snohomish counties. As a result of not going down into King, it becomes a couple less points Democratic. It is still pretty safe.
54% Murray 46% Rossi
D+7
WA-07 Jim McDermott (D-Seattle)
Rep. McDermott's Seattle district compacts a bit and loses some minorities to the 9th. It becomes a couple points less Democratic but it's the safest district in the state.
79% Murray 21% Rossi
D+29
WA-08 Dave Reichert (R-Auburn)
Rep. Reichert's district gets pushed further east. By not going into the Bellevue area, the district becomes safer by about 3 points.
Murray 47% Rossi 53%
R+2
WA-09 Adam Smith (D-Tacoma)
This is now a coalition influenced district. White VAP is down to 47%. Asians are the largest minority at 22%. I probably could've dropped the white percentage a few more points, but I wanted to maintain a district that looks at least semi-compact. The new district is about 15 points more Democratic than before.
68% Murray 32% Rossi
D+20
WA-10 Open
This is a new open district in Tacoma, Kitsap County, and a small part of King County. I would expect a Democratic pick up here.
53% Murray 47% Rossi
D+5
WA-11 Open
This is the second new Democratic district in WA. It is located in the northern part of King County, around Bellevue/Redmond/Kirkland/Bothel area.
54.5% Murray 45.5% Rossi
D+7
New Mexico
NM-01 Open
This district is open due to Martin Heinrich running for Senate. The district takes in most of Albuquerque and Rio Rancho. It becomes a Hispanic majority district with a 50.3% VAP. This is a very safe Democratic district.
65% Obama 35% McCain
D+10
NM-02 Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs)
Rep. Pearce's district takes in most of the Republican leaning areas of the state. As a result, it becomes about 6 points more Republican.
43% Obama 57% McCain
R+12
NM-03 Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe Peublo)
Rep. Lujan's district starts in Albuquerque then branches out to the northern part of the state and includes Santa Fe and Taos. It becomes about a point safer.
62% Obama 38% McCain
D+8
NM-04 Open
This is a brand new district in the western part of the state. As said earlier, the goal here was to get as many Native Americans in here as possible. That makes it a 25% Native American and 33% Hispanic district. However, it is only a 54.5% Obama district, which places it in swing territory and actually gives it a Republican CPVI.
54.5% Obama 45.5% McCain
R+1