After about 283 different incarnations of the "Anti-Mitt", and more twists and turns in the polls than an amusement park thrill ride, Mitt Romney finally landed this week in the position most of us assumed he would occupy last Fall: presumptive presidential nominee for the Republican Party.
It might be a tad of a stretch, however, to call him the "winner" of the primary. Last Fall, he was more or less at parity with Barack Obama, if not leading him, both nationally and in key battleground states. Today, only a small handful of polls (Fox News and Rasmussen) have him ahead of Obama, while over 90 percent of the polls released in the past three months have Obama staked to a lead. In the battleground states, as Markos noted earlier this week, Mitt Romney is ailing pretty badly as we enter into phase two of the presidential election season. Let's say this for the final time: the big winner of the GOP primary may well have been Barack Obama.
Meanwhile, down the ballot, we have the lay of the financial land in advance of key state showdowns in Pennsylvania and Utah, some polling numbers out of Utah that have to make the DCCC a little unnerved, and a major House candidate talking about ... um ... ice cream?
All that (and more!) in this "we survived Friday the 13th" edition of the Weekend Digest...
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: Aw, shucks. Gonna miss this category, aren't we?
It seems self-evident at this point that polling of the Republican primary will cease this week, since the exit of Rick Santorum from the race on Tuesday essentially cemented Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee. Despite the continuing presence of both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in the GOP race (and, heck, aren't Fred Karger and Buddy Roemer still kicking around, somewhere?!), pollsters aren't even bothering with gauging their support versus the presumptive nominee.
And, in the final analysis, what a weak nominee he turned out to be. As Jed Lewison noted earlier this week, every Republican nominee dating back to 1976 has held at least 57 percent support from the GOP electorate in the final poll of the primary campaign. Mitt Romney closed the curtain with 42 percent of the vote. The average lead for the GOP frontrunner at the end of the primary season in that span? Forty points. Romney's advantage? 18 points.
Of course, winning beats the alternative. But there is a gulf of difference between roaring out of the primary season, and limping out of it. Most assuredly, Mitt Romney is closer to the latter than the former.
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney 44, Santorum 25, Paul 13, Gingrich 10
NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney 46, Paul 16, Santorum 15, Gingrich 15
NATIONAL (Final Gallup Tracking): Romney 42, Santorum 24, Gingrich 10, Paul 10
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 36, Santorum 18, Paul 15, Gingrich 10
NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Romney 51, Santorum 14, Gingrich 9, Paul 7
NEW YORK (Siena College): Romney 51, Santorum 18, Paul 11, Gingrich 6
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 34, Santorum 30, Gingrich 17, Paul 11
PENNSYLVANIA (American Research Group): Romney 44, Santorum 40, Gingrich 7, Paul 5
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: We did get something this week on the November horse-race front that we haven't seen in a long while: multiple polls showing Mitt Romney edging in front of Barack Obama. However, there are caveats—(1) there were more polls showing Obama ahead, and a couple of them somewhat substantially (7-8 points); and (2) the two polls with a Romney lead were a Fox News poll which assumes an even Dem-GOP presidential election turnout (unlikely), and a Rasmussen poll which assumes more Republicans will turn out than Democrats. In only one of the last six presidential elections has that scenario taken place.
On the state-by-state front, there may be a slight shift downward for the president in a few states, though Rasmussen certainly does its part in wrecking the curve in a few states (I will be happy to bet anyone on Massachusetts, and I'll graciously lay you the 11 points Rasmussen is offering). It's not a Ras-only phenomenon, though: EPIC-MRA puts Obama up by a less-than-before four points in Michigan, while Muhlenberg College gives the president a five-point edge in Pennsylvania. Leads, but not as comfortable as polling in March suggested.
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Obama d. Romney (51-44); Obama d. Santorum (52-42)
NATIONAL (Christian Science Monitor/Investors Business Daily/TIPP): Obama d. Romney (46-38)
NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney d. Obama (46-44)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (46-43); Obama d. Santorum (47-41)
NATIONAL/INDEPENDENT VOTERS (Third Way/Global Strategy Group): Obama d. Romney (35-29)
MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (51-40)
MICHIGAN (EPIC/MRA): Obama d. Romney (47-43)
NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (49-40); Obama d. Santorum (51-36)
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (53-38); Obama d. Romney (52-36)
NEW YORK (Siena College): Obama d. Romney (60-35); Obama d. Santorum (62-23); Obama d. Paul (61-31); Obama d. Gingrich (65-29)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-44)
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama d. Romney (45-40); Obama d. Santorum (47-41)
VIRGINIA (Roanoke College): Romney d. Obama (46-41)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: On balance, this marked one of the quietest weeks of Senate polling in recent memory. The lone dark spot for Democrats would be that Roanoke College poll of Virginia (which included lousy numbers for Barack Obama). However, as we pointed out here at Daily Kos Elections earlier this week, there is reason to be very skeptical about that poll:
It looks like Roanoke failed Survey Design 101, asking about horserace matchups well after some out-there questions about respondents' personal commitment to Christianity. For instance, here's one question that came just before the Kaine-Allen test:
To help describe your faith, would you say that you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:
- The Bible is the word of God.
- Christians should share their faith in Jesus with others who might not already believe.
- Salvation only comes through Jesus and not through the practice of other religions.
So ... yeah, there's that. Speaking of Senate polls, though, we should get a pretty important and interesting one early in the week next week, because PPP is going into the field in Florida. Remember, just a few weeks ago, there was a major lack of consensus in two polls conducted by Quinnipiac and the House of Ras. Both showed leads in the high single digits, but had different people leading. Anyone want to hazard a guess on whether Ras had the Democratic incumbent or the Republican challenger ahead?
At any rate, PPP will be offering the tiebreaker next week.
MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D) 46, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45
NY-SEN (Siena College): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 63, Wendy Long (R) 23; Gillibrand 65, Bob Turner (R) 24; Gillibrand 65, George Maragos (R) 21
NY-SEN--R (Siena College): Bob Turner 19, Wendy Long 10, George Maragos 5
PA-SEN--R (McLaughlin for Tom Smith): Tom Smith 29, Sam Rohrer 14, Steven Welch 9, David Christian 7, Marc Scaringi 2
VA-SEN (Roanoke College): George Allen (R) 46, Tim Kaine (D) 38
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Indiana remains the most intriguing primary on the ballot in the recent future, and there were several goings-on in the Hoosier State this week. Embattled incumbent Dick Lugar got some good news, both in the endorsement of the state Chamber of Commerce midweek as well as by avoiding catastrophe in the lone debate of the primary. However, many analysts (myself included) think the biggest news of the week may well have been when Rick Santorum dropped out of the presidential race on Tuesday. The conventional wisdom is that a full-court press by Romney in the state would've been to Lugar's benefit, because a lower GOP primary day turnout would lead to a greater concentration of diehards. Y'know, the kind of people that are infinitely more likely to support Lugar's opponent, state treasurer Richard Mourdock.
- A bizarre act of lawbreaking has left the Federal Election Commission with a very interesting question to ponder. You might recall that in California, a Democratic operative named Kinde Durkee bilked several Democratic politicians out of millions of dollars via her role as a campaign treasurer for several Golden State Democrats. The worst hit was Feinstein, who was estimated to have lost north of $4.5 million. So Feinstein has gone to the FEC with a most interesting request: she wants to be able to go back to donors who already hit their maximum donations for this cycle, on the grounds that said donations did not actually wind up in her campaign coffers. Can any of our readers recall a similar situation?
- What does teabagger fave and Texas U.S. Senate contender Ted Cruz (R) and Arkansas football coach Bobby Petrino have in common? Both were undone, to an extent, this week via text message. While Petrino's travails are well-known, those of Cruz pertain more to our little corner of the universe. It turns out that fellow Senate contender Craig James (former ESPN college football analyst ... hey, the circle is complete!) drew the name of frontrunner David Dewhurst in a random draw. No, it wasn't for a secret Santa—it was for the right to pose a question to a fellow candidate at an upcoming debate. So Cruz texted James, urging him to use his question to go hard negative on Dewhurst. James, calculating that he could (a) look like a good guy and (b) clip a fellow also-ran in the knees, leaked the text exchange. 15 yards and a loss of down, Ted!
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Most of the House polling this week was of the primary election variety. The lone general election poll, however, ought to inspire the consumption of a few Tums at DCCC headquarters.
Some may have thought that the Utah GOP didn't screw the lone Democrat in the delegation (Jim Matheson) completely, because the district they gave him (rechristened UT-04) was actually incrementally less Republican in terms of 2008 voter performance than the one he held before. That would be too simplistic an analysis, however. Matheson's roadmap to victory over the past decade has been the fact that he was a known, and pretty well liked, quantity in his district. In fact, his favorabilities among his constituents, given the "D" next to his name, was damned near miraculous. But this district, by and large, doesn't know Matheson. The new 4th district contains only about a third of Matheson's old 2nd district. As such, to many voters in the district, he is merely the guy in Congress who also happens to be a Democrat.
Given that, maybe his numbers aren't so bad, after all. But when an incumbent leads challengers that are still not universally known by only a point, and runs below that 50 percent threshold, there is a reason to keep a close eye on this race. One trump card for Matheson, he has a solid war chest with which to define himself. It will be interesting to see if he does so early, before the GOP nominee (which will be decided rather soon, as Utah is one of the earlier states to settle their nomination process) gets a shot to define the Democratic incumbent.
CA-02 (FM3 for Huffman's campaign): Jared Huffman (D) 24, Stacey Lawson (D) 9, Norman Solomon (D) 7, Susan Adams (D) 5, Michael Halliwell (R) 5, Dan Roberts (R) 5
MN-08--D (Lincoln Park Strategies for Anderson): Rick Nolan 19, Jeff Anderson 16, Taryl Clark 16
PA-04—D (Polk-Lepson Research): Ken Lee 9, Henry Perkinson 7
PA-04—R (Polk-Lepson Research): Chris Reilly 18, Scott Perry 13, Sean Summers 5, Mark Swomley 3, Kevin Downs 2, Eric Martin 2, Ted Waga 1
PA-17--D (Thirty Ninth St. Strategies for Cartwright): Matt Cartwright 42, Tim Holden 36
UT-04 (Mason Dixon for the Salt Lake Tribune): Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 46, Carl Wimmer (R) 45; Matheson 45, Mia Love (R) 42; Matheson 47, Stephen Sandstrom (R) 41
UT-04—R (Mason Dixon for the Salt Lake Tribune): Carl Wimmer 35, Mia Love 23, Stephen Sandstrom 14
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Primary elections and a key state convention are in the immediate offing in two states at the end of this month. As such, the FEC asks campaigns to give the current financial state of their campaigns. With that in mind, here are the latest nums in the potentially important states of Pennsylvania and Utah. The Keystone State has at least three potentially important battles due in November, and the numbers to the FEC hint that a couple of others might be on the periphery, as well. Utah, meanwhile, is where Jim Matheson is mounting that potentially tough defense as the lone Democratic representative from the deep-red Beehive State.
- It was indispensable when we did it in Cali. You loved it when we did it in Florida. Now, our man David Jarman is back, offering the Daily Kos Elections "cheat sheet" for one of the other big enchiladas in redistricting: New York. Make no mistake, with no less than a half-dozen competitive races, the Empire State could well be a majority maker in November. Check out the cheat sheet for the data and candidates in all 27 districts.
- Let's finish the House on a lighter note: one that might have been better suited for the "Air Ball" award. Watch this ad for Republican-turned-Independent CA-26 candidate Linda Parks. You're welcome, America.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Only one poll this week downballot, and it is on arguably the most polled gubernatorial race of the cycle: North Carolina. It'd be nice if the new poll here (one of the first gubernatorial polls by the House of Ras) broke some startling new ground. Alas, it does not. It gives GOP contender Pat McCrory essentially the same lead over his Democratic opponents that PPP has offered.
However, we will get some big-time downballot polling next week, and your pals here at Daily Kos are playing a big part in that. We have asked PPP to take the pulse of all of the critical Wisconsin recall elections that are coming up in the next two months. That means we will be looking not only on the battle to recall embattled GOP Gov. Scott Walker (including the Democratic gubernatorial primary), but also the state Senate recall elections, any one of which could turn the balance of power in Madison. Look for those next week!
NC-GOV (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 45, Walter Dalton (D) 36; McCrory 46, Bob Etheridge (D) 35; McCrory 47, Bill Faison (D) 30
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Speaking of that Wisconsin gubernatorial battle, some potentially decisive endorsements were handed down this week on the Democratic side. The state AFL-CIO went with former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, while Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett snagged the support of outgoing U.S. Senator Herb Kohl, and respected former longtime Rep. David Obey, once thought to be a potential candidate in the recall race. Barrett and Falk have pretty well established themselves as the frontrunners on the Democratic side in the gubernatorial race. The primary election looms just over three weeks away.
- This story out of Oklahoma is absolutely extraordinary, and I suppose it does prove the maxim that every vote counts. In HD-71, a GOP-held open seat, the initial canvass of votes gave Democrat Dan Arthrell a three-vote lead over Republican Katie Henke. Alas, in a recount, Henke pulled ahead by a single vote. But, then, when the voting machines were being inventoried, two ballots were found stuck in a machine. Both votes were for Arthrell, which put him back on top by a vote. A judge, as you might expect, is going to sort this one out. The contention for Republicans, undoubtedly, will be about the unsecured status of the machine which coughed up those decisive pair of votes for the Democrat.
- Monthly fundraising numbers are out for the high-profile battle to be the next governor in Washington. Jay Inslee (D) was able to pull ahead in net funding over Republican Rob McKenna (R). However, this was due largely to a quirk in Washington state law that worked to McKenna's detriment. As the state's attorney general, he was precluded from raising funds while the state legislature was in session. Their session was extended, which also kept McKenna in the penalty box incrementally longer. Now, with the lege out of session, expect McKenna to furiously play catch-up. Also at the link: an interesting analytical piece about the race, which poses an interesting question—is the Evergreen State's media establishment in a universal love affair with McKenna?
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
For the first time in "Air Ball" history, there are an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. Angus King would be so proud...
There is also one potentially startling omission. And ...yes... I strongly debated giving a slot to the outgoing Mr. Santorum, on the logic that it would finally give him an election he could win. Alas, I am not much of a fan for kicking a guy when he is down, so instead, let's go with the following four most deserving nominees:
Republican nominee Mitt Romney (R-MA): Mittens, Mittens, Mittens ... you caught a break with that dumbass piss-poor excuse for a manufactured crisis in L'Affaire Rosen, and you piss it away in a day by approaching April 15th like a dude with a seriously guilty conscience. I doubt he'll be able to keep his tax returns in the dark until November, but one bets that this dude is gonna go all out to try.
Gov. Peter Shumlin (D-VT): Not for nothing, Governor, but in the future, it is helpful to remind yourself of this simple rule of life: they are bears, and you are not. It might behoove you to just sacrifice the damned bird feeder next time...
Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA): It's been a long time since Stark has been seriously challenged in his Democratic-laden district in the eastern part of the Bay Area. And whether you like his voting record or not, I think it's fair to say that he is not handling the pressure of a contested race very well. He has always had a bit of a mean streak (this 2009 LA Times article replayed some of the most notable examples), but there is a fine line between aggressive and embarrassing.
Rep. Allen West (R-FL; Holy crap--can't believe I originally typed "D" here): I think I speak for America, Congressman, when I ask this question: when you vacillate between saying the House of Representatives has 80 or 81 Democrats who are doubling as commie agents, which of your colleagues are you on the fence about?!