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8:35 AM PT: FL-Sen: I have to admit, I rather liked having ex-Sen. George LeMieux in the Republican primary, if only because he clearly enjoyed ragging on front-runner Connie Mack as much as I do. But LeMieux, whose fundraising and polling generally sucked, has now dropped out of the race. I can't decide whether this is actually good or bad for Mack, but I think it's possible it could be the latter. Now, at least, ex-Rep. Dave Weldon, a late entrant to the race, could at least try to consolidate the anti-Mack vote. The problem, though, is that there are still some other minor candidates out there drawing support of their own, and Weldon has only two months until the primary. Oh well. Bye, George.

8:53 AM PT: NM-Sen: The Internet has the longest of memories—longer, it seems, than Heather Wilson's. A Democratic operative gave BuzzFeed a nice little hit on New Mexico's Republican Senate nominee. Wilson this week:

I've always opposed the privatization of Social Security.
Ah, but Wilson in 1998:
I support innovative approaches that would allow working people to put at least some of their Social Security payments into personalized pension funds.
Is Wilson now going to attempt AEI's Orwellian "personalization is not privatization" dodge? We'll just have to see.

9:01 AM PT: FL-16: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan, who faces multiple investigations into his ethics, is also embroiled in related legal disputes, and now he's finally going to have to testify under oath in one of them. It's not clear exactly when Buchanan will have to take the stand, but it's in a "lawsuit involving his former partner, who alleged Buchanan was the architect of a plan to violate federal elections laws." More details are available at the link.

9:27 AM PT: PA-12: Dem Rep. Mark Critz is out with a new internal poll of the general election, where he faces Republican Keith Rothfus, the 2010 nominee in the old PA-04 (which makes up about two thirds of the new 12th). The survey, from Global Strategy Group, finds Critz up 46-36 over Rothfus. Critz's favorables are 38-19, while Rothfus is less well-known, at 14-7.

9:35 AM PT: FL-18: Democrat Patrick Murphy has won the DCCC's "grassroots champion" contest that you probably got some spam about at some point or another. So what does Murphy win? "The campaign that receives the most unique votes overall by June 15th receives the title of DCCC Grassroots Champion and a fundraising e-mail to their state from the DCCC." And the D-Trip, of course, gets all those email addresses people had to provide in order to cast ballots.

9:43 AM PT: CA-21: I don't think there's any reason to hope that Fresno City Councilor Blong Xiong can make up the rest of the gap with fellow Democrat John Hernandez, even though Hernandez's 6.8% election night lead has now closed to just 1.3%. (God, California, you really suck at counting votes. The primary was over two weeks ago!) The problem, as John Ellis at the Fresno Bee notes, is that "[i]t is unknown how many votes are left to count in the district." The answer, though, is "probably not nearly enough" for Xiong to prevail. What's more, he hasn't even issued any public statements—not even a tweet—since election day; you'd think if he still felt he had any shot, he'd have said something to that effect.

10:22 AM PT: NY-13/CPA: Well, well, well. Look who's getting in on the 501(c)(4) racket. It's none other than the Campaign for Primary Accountability, the already-notorious super PAC which loves to target incumbents of both parties, supposedly just for the crime of being incumbents. But they've got a non-profit arm as well, called the "Alliance for Self-Governance." As you know if you've been reading our commentary lately on groups like Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS, these non-profit "social welfare" organizations can't engage in direct candidate advocacy, but they skirt the law with bogus "issue" ads. That also allows them to hide their donors (non-profits don't have to publicize who funds them) and their expenditures. (Super PACs, like ordinary PACs, have to file both fundraising reports and independent expenditure reports with the FEC.)

I mention all this in the context of New York's 13th Congressional District because, even though the CPA could have hidden behind the cloak of the ASG, spokesman Curtis Ellis nevertheless admitted to Capital New York's Reid Pillifant that they're basically doing bupkes in the Democratic primary, despite earlier claims that they'd spend "six figures" on the race. Ellis says that the group's efforts to boost state Sen. Adriano Espaillat and take down Rep. Charlie Rangel "will be mostly online" (in Pillifant's words), a particularly odd way of trying to reach people in this lower-income district. It seems that all the ASG has done, in fact, is put up a single web-page attacking Rangel, and in English only. (This is a majority-Hispanic district.) I've long urged skepticism about the CPA's supposed target lists, and it looks like that skepticism is indeed justified.

10:37 AM PT: CA-07: A little over a month ago, a story broke about a fraudulent voter registration drive in the Sacramento area, led by one Monica Harris, a Republican operative who, it turned out, had a serious criminal record that included embezzlement, theft, and prison time. And one of Harris's recent clients, as it happened, was GOP Rep. Dan Lungren, who denied involvement, saying that the "registration effort was not being run by the campaign."

Now, remarkably, he's defending the drive—to the hilt:

Lungren said he supported the voter drive and understood that there were sufficient safeguards in place to prevent fraud. "The overall registration effort made by the party was very successful. I am unaware of any single registration that was paid for by that program that had any problems," he said last week, adding that it's possible that the voters filling out the forms made mistakes.
Let's just revisit what the Sacramento elections board—which doesn't have any skin in this game, apart from wanting valid voter registration rolls—said about Harris's fraud in May:
Jill LaVine, Sacramento County's registrar of voters, has turned over evidence of what she called registration fraud to the California Secretary of State's Office. She said that at least one-fourth of the 31,000 registration cards submitted by Harris and her circulators since September have been rejected for inaccuracies.

Momentum Political Services was hired by the Republican Party of Sacramento County to conduct voter registration drives. LaVine said her office found numerous examples of people of having their political party affiliation switched to Republican against their wishes.

Does Lungren plan to blame these magical party switches on the people who filled out the forms? I'm just baffled. Why isn't he just shutting up and letting Harris take the fall?

10:45 AM PT (James L): The Defenders of Wildlife, leaders of the Planeteers a coalition of environmental groups who have banded together to defeat Republican Heather Wilson this November, filed a $38K expenditure report with the FEC for direct mail expenses in this race.

10:48 AM PT: Governors: The University of Minnesota has some good trivia on which states have gone the longest without electing a Republican to the governor's mansion. The current winner? Washington, where the last member of the GOP to win a gubernatorial race was John Spellman in 1980. The lengthiest drought on the other side is in South Dakota; there, no Democrat has won the top job since Richard Kneip won re-election to a third term all the way back in 1974.

10:56 AM PT: TX-14: While I don't think you could call either of the two Republicans in the TX-14 runoff "Paulists," one of them has indeed earned the backing of the man they're trying to succeed in Congress. Rep. Ron Paul has endorsed state Rep. Randy Weber, who is facing off against Pearland City Councilwoman Felicia Harris. (Weber took 28% in the first round to 19% for Harris.) It seems like Paul's been body-snatched, though. His statement on behalf of Weber is pure anodyne GOP:

"As a small business owner, Randy understands how excessive regulation and reckless overspending by government is destroying jobs and squeezing our community. Randy Weber will be a strong and consistent voice to get Washington off our backs so we in the Fourteenth District can work and grow."
Nothing about fiat currency, the Federal Reserve, or the NAFTA Superhighway? I'm disappointed!

11:27 AM PT: WI-Sen: Marquette Law School is out with the first reputable poll of the Badger State since the gubernatorial recall, but note that they're already using a likely voter screen for the November general election even though it's still over four months away. In any event, they find Republican Tommy Thompson up 49-41 over Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the Senate race, while Baldwin ties or leads the other GOP hopefuls. Thompson also garners a pretty unimpressive 34% in the Republican primary, but the rest of the field is quite fractured. Meanwhile, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49-43. We'll have a full post breaking out all the numbers later today.

11:42 AM PT: NE-Sen: Wow. This statement from Democrat Bob Kerrey is just baffling. He starts by quoting legendary economist John Maynard Keynes, who once said, "Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist." Then, this:

In spite of the TV ads suggesting I have become more liberal during my time in New York, the opposite actually happened. The things I have done during my time away from politics the past ten years have given me a view of the world that has made me much less the slave of some defunct economist (and of paid political advertisements). I have come much more firmly to believe in the wisdom of the masses. I do not believe that a million people making the same decision (what am I going to wear this morning) will all make the right choice. Maybe 10% will make a terrible choice. Maybe 10% will make an inspired choice. Maybe the rest of us will do OK. We're all better off making the decision on our own than we would be having one person make that decision for all of us in order to keep 10% of us from making a mistake. Besides: I am much more likely to learn from my mistakes anyway.
It's like Deep Thoughts... by Bob Kerrey.

11:55 AM PT: FL-18: One of the strangest Republican campaigns in existence this cycle belongs to Martin County Sheriff Robert Crowder, who is rather improbably trying to unseat Allen West in the GOP primary by running to his left. Crowder's already made a series of statements that show he's wildly out of step with the modern Republican Party, but his latest interview with the Palm Beach Post editorial board is something else. He won't speak out in favor of repealing the Affordable Care Act (and won't even say if he thinks the mandate is unconstitutional); he says that "at some point in time taxes have got to go up in some areas"; he rates Obama a "C+ or a B" overall; and says he hasn't even decided whether to vote for Obama or Romney in November! Crowder's obviously a member of the wrong party—he's just too reality-based, saying of the President: "I would be upset if he was actually doing some of the things he’s accused of." Dude, it's well past time to think about switching.

12:00 PM PT: FL-Sen: Quinnipiac has some job approval numbers for Dem Sen. Bill Nelson (47-32, up from 44-35 in May), but their full head-to-heads in this year's Senate race won't be out until Thursday.

12:02 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-Sen (pdf): You could be forgiven if you'd forgotten that Washington is having a Senate race this year. I mean, I live in Washington, and I often forget there's a Senate race this year. At any rate, PPP included the oft-overlooked race in its sample this week, and they find that Dem incumbent Maria Cantwell is continuing to have an easy time of it. She leads Republican state Sen. Michael Baumgartner 51-35, basically unchanged since February when she led 51-36. Cantwell has 46/39 approvals, while Baumgartner is a cipher, with 72% with no opinion about him. (At the top of the ticket in the Evergreen State, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 54-41, including a 52-36 lead among independents.)

12:10 PM PT: NH-Gov: Apparently, New Hampshire law allows the creation of two different kinds of political committees for gubernatorial campaigns: standard campaign committees and PACs. I'm not clear on the distinctions between them, or why you'd choose one over the other, but one important difference is that PACs have to file fundraising reports on Wednesday while campaign committees aren't obligated to do so until August 22. Consequently, Democrat Maggie Hassan, who chose the PAC route, just announced her totals, saying she's taken in $700K so far and has about $400K cash-on-hand. Hassan's rival for the Democratic nomination, Jackie Cilley, also created a PAC, so her numbers should be out soon, too.

The two principal GOPers, Ovide Lamontagne and Kevin Smith, both operate regular committees, so their reports are due for a while yet. But as we mentioned the other day, Lamontagne leaked some early numbers, saying he'd raised $910K, with $500K in the bank.

12:22 PM PT: UT-02: Just like baseball, there's no crying in politics, either. Yet a bunch of Utah Republicans have been wailing like babies for months, ever since Air Force vet Chris Stewart won his party's nomination at the GOP's state convention back in April. Four also-rans have filed a complaint with the FEC about how things went down, which seems a bit like appealing to the World Court at the Hague because your mom grounded you. Anyhow, this is what they allege:

The complaint stems from an anonymous letter that a virtually unknown candidate—Eureka Mayor Milton Hanks—said was sent to delegates leading up to the state Republican convention April 21 that alleged the four candidates had crafted a deal to ensure Stewart wouldn’t win the nomination by developing an "ABC Club" (Anybody But Chris Club).

Hanks delivered an explosive speech to delegates that resulted in a chaotic series of events that left Eagar, Wallack, Clark and Williams unable to rebut Hanks’ allegations before delegates voted.

The 14-page complaint charges the Stewart campaign with creating the letter to destroy the four candidates’ chances of securing the nomination and includes a list of witnesses who received the missive just days before the convention. The complaint also alleges Hanks was a supporter of Stewart in early February before deciding to jump into the race himself and filing a statement of candidacy on Feb. 24. Hanks on Monday denied the charge and said he supported Bob Fuehr for Congress before entering as a candidate himself.

An internal investigation by the state GOP already found no wrongdoing, though. And in any event, even if the FEC did agree (at some distant point in the future) that Stewart acted improperly, the complainants are only seeking a fine. So it's not really clear what they're hoping to accomplish, except perhaps to damage Stewart and soften him up for a primary challenge in the future.

12:33 PM PT: CO-Sen: As part of its Colorado miscellany, PPP took an early look at the 2014 Senate race, when freshman Dem Mark Udall will be up for re-election. Tom Jensen summarizes:

Udall has a solid 42/34 approval rating and would lead in hypothetical match ups against 7 different potential GOP foes we tested him against. The strongest of the GOP folks we tested is former Governor Bill Owens, who would trail Udall 47-43. The only other Republican who can hold Udall to a single digit lead is Congressman Mike Coffman, who trails 48-39.

The other Republicans we looked at were 2010 primary runner up Jane Norton (trails 48-38), former Congressman Tom Tancredo (trails 49-39), Attorney General John Suthers (trails 48-38), Congressman Doug Lamborn (trails 49-36), and 2010 nominee Ken Buck who has the widest deficit at 50-35. That has to be a frustrating fact for the GOP, because it suggests they could have knocked off Michael Bennet in 2010 if they'd run just about anyone other than Buck. Buck's favorability is an atrocious 18/35 spread.

PPP also finds voters narrowly supporting an initiative to legalize marijuana, 46-42. Also of note, Dem Gov. John Hickenlooper is extremely popular, with a 60-26 job approval rating. Amazingly, even Republicans give rate him at 36-43, which demonstrates some exceptional crossover appeal.

12:43 PM PT: House: Franking, my dear: I don't give a damn. At least, not generally. Complaints about "abuse" of congressional mailing privileges are usually pretty weak tea, though once in a while someone does get busted for doing something egregious. In this case, I bring it up because Roll Call's John Stanton has done a thorough review of franking expenditures, coming up with a list of the top 10 spendthrifts:

Joe Heck (NV-03), Scott DesJarlais (TN-04), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Kenny Marchant (TX-24), Bobby Schilling (IL-17), Brad Sherman (CA-30), Vicky Hartzler (MO-04), David McKinley (WV-01), Frank Guinta (NH-01), and Todd Young (IN-09).
Eight of these members are Republicans (all save Heinrich and Sherman), but Stanton points out something much more interesting:
Of those 10, at least four of the Republicans—Heck, Schilling, McKinley and Guinta—ran, at least in part, on criticizing incumbents over their mailing practices.

During that period, Heck has spent an estimated $422,000, Schilling has racked up $318,000, McKinley has totaled $312,000, and Guinta has totaled $308,000.

Stanton also rounds up some good quotes from each of these congressmen when they railed against franking last cycle. Heck, Schilling, and Guinta all face competitive elections this year, so their hypocrisy may come back to haunt them.

1:18 PM PT: Hah! Aaron Blake has a timely piece out on the CPA. It turns out they're out of money! They've spent $2.7 million this cycle but now have just $227K on hand. They probably could have used their cash more wisely: Some of the races they've gotten involved in (like TX-04) have been serious head-scratchers. And thanks to the FEC's data portal, we can see exactly how much they've spent and where:


CD Target Target's
%age
Success? Spent
AL-01 Jo Bonner (R) 56% No $123,680
AL-06 Spencer Bachus (R) 59% No $203,109
IL-02 Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) 71% No $89,321
IL-16 Don Manzullo (R) 46% Yes $239,532
IN-05 David McIntosh (R) * 29% No $132,902
NY-13 Charlie Rangel (D) $9,830
OH-02 Jean Schmidt (R) 43% Yes $132,024
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur (D) 56% No $253,179
PA-17 Tim Holden (D) 43% Yes $193,875
PA-18 Tim Murphy (R) 63% No $107,308
TX-04 Ralph Hall (R) 58% No $167,371
TX-16 Silvestre Reyes (D) 44% Yes $240,000

IN-05 was an open seat, but the CPA nevertheless decided to support ex-Rep. David McIntosh in his failed comeback bid. Note also that this table doesn't include spending by the CPA's non-profit arm.

1:33 PM PT: MA-06: Most of the early reservations for fall ad time we've seen so far have been in swing states, but here's one guy making the most of cheap rates in a state that's definitely not on the presidential radar: Republican Richard Tisei just reserved $650K on cable and broadcast "for the last month" of the election campaign. Joshua Miller points out that both the NRCC and DCCC have made substantial reservations of their own in the Boston media market, and I'd also add that the top-tier senate race between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren will eat up a lot of available ad slots.

1:47 PM PT (David Jarman): WI-Sen: Marquette Law School is out with the first poll of Wisconsin post-recall (that's by a non-clown pollster). Any predicted sea change in Wisconsin politics never washed up on its shores: Barack Obama still leads Mitt Romney by 6, and the name-rec-driven advantage for Tommy Thompson over Tammy Baldwin in the Senate race remains static. Click through for our full analysis.

2:05 PM PT: NY-11: Politicker's Colin Campbell reports he's obtained confirmation that the FBI investigation into GOP freshman Mike Grimm's shady campaign finance practices is indeed ongoing. (You'll recall the New York Times piece which broke the story early this year.) According to Campbell, "the FBI has been speaking to at least one individual about fundraising allegations against his 2010 campaign in the last couple weeks. One such person, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, confirmed that the FBI reached out to him to inquire on the matter."

2:17 PM PT: NE-Sen: Well, you can certainly understand why Project New America isn't shopping this poll around, unlike their gaudy AZ-Sen survey from a day earlier. An unnamed source tells Politico's Alexander Burns that PNA's poll, from Garin-Hart-Yang, finds Republican Deb Fischer leading Democrat Bob Kerrey 52-38. Even Barack Obama does better than Kerrey, trailing Mitt Romney by "only" a 12-point margin, 52-40. Well, at least these numbers are a bit better than that recent Fischer internal which had her up 58-33. That's some pretty frosty comfort, though.

2:34 PM PT: NY-19: It's not much of a primary, but Democratic attorney Julian Schreibman just earned the endorsement of retiring Rep. Maurice Hinchey. Hinchey's seat, the old 22nd, was largely dismantled in redistricting, but the largest chunk of his district made it into the redrawn 19th, where he currently represents 37% of population. Schreibman is looking to take on GOP freshman Chris Gibson in November, but first he has to dispatch Dutchess County Legislator Joel Tyner, whose shoestring campaign has fallen apart in tragi-comic fashion. (Click through for some serious insanity.) The primary is June 26.

2:39 PM PT: DSCC/NRSC: Like its House counterpart, the DSCC outraised its opposite number on the Republican side in the very merry month of May. The DS pulled in $5.6 million, compared to $3.9 mil for the NRSC. Senate Democrats also have a big cash-on-hand edge, $28.3 million to $23 mil.

2:41 PM PT: And the Daily News, following up on Politicker's story, reports that at least four people have been questioned in connection with the Grimm inquiry.

3:59 PM PT (James L): KY-06: Harry Reid's Patriot Majority PAC is out with a new Medicare-themed TV ad (backed by a $64K buy) in support of Democrat Ben Chandler. Note that the add uses 501(c)-type language ("tell Ben Chandler to keep fighting to protect Medicare"), which is the first time that I can remember Reid's PAC doing this. It's nice to know that so many groups are concerned with social welfare these days!

4:15 PM PT (James L): American Crossroads: Last Friday, we got word of the size of the buy behind American Crossroads' broad-spectrum attack on multiple Democratic Senate candidates. Well, it now looks like the PAC is quickly doubling up on their buys in these states – in NE-Sen, they're spending another $127K; NV-Sen, another $167K, and VA-Sen, another $358K. No word on whether they'll be making an NM-Sen re-up, though.


4:34 PM PT (James L): Americans for Prosperity: A breathless Lando Calrissian reports: "That blast came from the Koch Brothers! Those douchebags are operational!" Yup, Americans for Prosperity is targeting the Democratic Senate fleet with a $3 million ad buy spread between FL-Sen, MO-Sen, MT-Sen, NV-Sen, VA-Sen, and WI-Sen. A copy of the Montana ad is available at the link, and the Wisconsin ad can be viewed here.

4:37 PM PT (James L): OK-01: The American Academy of Anesthesiologists are spending another $25K on direct mail in order to numb Republican primary voters into a state of deep sedation on behalf of Rep. John Sullivan.

4:40 PM PT (James L): VA-Sen: That Majority PAC ad against George Allen that we wrote about yesterday? We now have word on the size of the buy: $487K.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:09:48 AM PDT

  •  posted Mitt's stance on the new immigration policy (5+ / 0-)

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:19:22 AM PDT

  •  Bloomberg out with good polls for Dems today (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, TofG, Delilah, bear83, MichaelNY

    Polling of LV 6/15-18:
    Obama d. Romney - 53-40 (+13)
    Obama Approval - 53-44 (+9)
    Congressional Ballot - Dems 48, Reps 41 (+7)

    We Ask America, raining on the sunshine parade, polls conducted 6/18 only:
    Michigan - Obama 43, Romney 45 (-2)
    Iowa - Obama 45, Romney 44 (+1)

    •  I'm largely ignoring WAA (8+ / 0-)

      It's not that I think WAA is necessarily a bad pollster, it's that their assumptions about the electorate are virtually the same ones they made in 2010. They were quite accurate then, because their assumptions were appropriately (some might say gleefully) gloomy. But while this year might not be as great as 2008 for Democrats, it's not going to be as bad as 2010 -- and in famously elastic states like Michigan, assumptions about the electorate make a huge difference in what results you're getting.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:31:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bloomberg's poll is interesting because it is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      weighted for age and race...
      and they choose a sample that is 22% under 30.  
      PPP's latest for Kos has this group at 15%.
      2008 exits = 18%

      Bloomberg 53w/47m (same as 2008 exits)
      PPP  51w/49m

      Bloomberg at +13 Obama will surely be called an outlier by most here, but the numbers mostly in line with PPP's, except for the very different samples.

      While PPP semi-implauisbly has Obama winning under 30s by 9 points (while conversely tied among seniors), the 2008 exits had him winning that under 30s group by 34%.  It seems Bloomberg sees younger voters not taking the drastic turn toward Romney that PPP does.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 01:08:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I've never seen a more brilliant (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    dissertation on the entire realm of politics from the beginning of time, to current day!

    Mind blowing!

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:30:16 AM PDT

  •  Hey, isnt the RNC in Florida this year? (11+ / 0-)

    And dont they have a GOP governor? And isnt he unpopular?

    I'm not trying to play down the Dem problems in NC. The problems at the state party concern me the most, and it certainly doesnt help that Perdue is so unpopular(although it helps that she isnt seeking a second term).

    But it's amazing that the FL GOP is experiencing similar things and it doesnt get covered as much by the media. Rick Scott is apparently so unpopular Romney wont appear with him , and the former party chair Jim Greer will be go on trial July 31st, a month before the party's convention.

    FL, like NC, is a swing state, and it's must win for the GOP. So it's interesting that this doesnt get more attention.

  •  CA-21 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walja, MichaelNY

    According to this piece in the Fresno Bee only 569 votes separate Xiong & Hernandez for the coveted second position in the Top Two.
      According to the California Secretary of State's office, as of yesterday there are nearly 338,000 ballots remaining to be counted statewide.

    ex-SSP. What would Machiavelli do?

    by hankmeister on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:35:37 AM PDT

    •  Xiong is from Fresno (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      walja, MichaelNY

      which has a habit of counting its votes very late. I don't know if there is any portion of that county or area in CA-21 though.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:44:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP Washington (14+ / 0-)

    Obama 54-41

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:48:35 AM PDT

  •  CA-31: Is it official that Aguilar didnt make the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

    runoff? AP, which seems to have up to date numbers(they seem to match CA SOS) doesnt show anyone, including Miller, as having made the runoff yet.

  •  Sigh (6+ / 0-)

    http://abcnews.go.com/...

    Just makes me really angry. The title:

    Floridians support Rick Scott's purge of illegal voters
    Same way Rick Scott is phrasing is it and the way Quinpiac phrased it's question. That is so loaded for what is supposed to be an impartial news article; of course if you keep calling it an effort to get rid of illegal voters, voters will back it.

    The problem is how can ABC get away with calling it this? Rick Scott won't reveal where the list came from, and it's come out that it's purging many citizens off the voter rolls (unknowingly), and mostly targetting minorities and Democratic voters.

    But the Q-Poll also has by far the best approval rating (-10) that I have seen for Scott in while. They have, on average an R+2 lean I would say, but in Florida it seems more like they've been consistently R+6.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:52:22 AM PDT

    •  I have a hypothesis (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MichaelNY

      It's called Qpac just can't poll the south.  Their Virginia polls were always very odd.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:58:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, the Quinipiac wording isnt (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, dufffbeer, bythesea, itskevin

      very good, imo

      As you may know, there has been an effort by Governor Scott to remove people from the state's voter rolls who are suspected of not being U.S. citizens. Some people say this effort is needed to prevent voter fraud. Others say this effort is intended to suppress turnout by low-income people and minorities. Do you support or oppose Governor Scott's effort to remove potential non-citizens from the registered voter rolls?

      Admittedly, I dont know what would be better, but still neutral wording. But I think the issue is having people who are citizens and can vote purged.

  •  I got the job (37+ / 0-)

    I am now employed by the Pete Gallego for Congress campaign. Your probable first realization upon reading that is correct:

    I will no longer be able to comment on the state of affairs either directly or indirectly related to the campaign. I will also avoid commentary about any political race within the state of Texas due to close proximity and the ease with which they could affect the campaign.

    Your second thought? That you're happy for me!

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM2 (Raised), TX20 (B.A. and M.A.in Pol. Sci.), TX17 (Live); Taste my skittles? Intern w/ Pete Gallego for Congress.

    by wwmiv on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:57:09 AM PDT

  •  Asian-Americans now 6% of U.S. population (10+ / 0-)

    and rising (maybe that Bloomberg number wasn't off).

    Politically, Asian Americans in the U.S. tend to vote Democratic. According to Pew, half of them are Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party; only 28% identify as Republicans.

    Asian Americans also view President Obama in a more favorable light, with a 54% approving of his job versus 44% for the general public who do. According to 2008 Election Day exit polls, Asian Americans supported Obama over John McCain by a 62%-35% margin.

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 09:13:17 AM PDT

  •  I made this comment earlier (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    There is also the interesting news that immigrants from Asia who come with a high level of education and highly marketable skills now outnumber Latino immigrants. Unlike the Mexicans who were taking jobs that Americans did not want to do, the new Asian immigrants are snapping up high-paying positions for which too many American kids lack training.
    There was also another article on it. Basically, the fastest growing minority group in America right are Asian-Americans (a super broad category). It is also a minority group that is on average wealthier, better educated, and less religous than the American mean. Asian Americans are a strongly Democratic group, and even the few groups that Republicans have done well among in the past, (like the Vietnamese), are drifting leftwards. More importantly, turnout in this minority group is much higher and much more consistent.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 09:13:50 AM PDT

  •  NY-19: Tyner Controversy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I posted it a little late last night so I am not sure if everybody saw.

    http://blog.timesunion.com/...

    I am not sure what is the craziest part of the story. Messing up the campaign finance report of a campaign using less than 10k is pretty bad. The semi-nude picture is weird. Tyner's e-mail is just insane.

    M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

    by slacks on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 09:38:01 AM PDT

    •  My favorite part from a skim (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slacks, MichaelNY

      Was Tyner saying he often had to "beg" for gas money to get back from campaign trips.  Isn't this guy an elected official?  Are they not paying Duchess County Legislators enough?

      (Oh, and the trips were to "what was once" the district.  Did redistricting help screw Tyner over?)

      Oh, and the treasurer saying outright that she was "covering her butt" from an embezzlement investigation!

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 09:59:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Part Time (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        They get paid $15,450 a year. If I remember correctly his full time job is at pre-school/daycare.

        I don't think redistricting screwed him over (unless you count the fact that it moved his opponent into the district). The old 20th went further North than the current 19th. He was in the race before redistricting so he probably spent time trying to get support up there.

        I am not sure why he included all those details in the e-mail anyway. It makes him seem crazy.

        M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

        by slacks on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:33:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wow. (6+ / 0-)
      Fact: On multiple occasions over past year of campaign I beg for gas money to get back home.

      Fact: My car was almost repossessed in late June because my monthly payment came weeks late.

      Fact: I have not been able to pay my mother any rent since last August– because I have poured every single penny of my own financial resources into this campaign.

      His opponent in the primary, Julian Schreibman, has been endorsed by Rep. Maurice Hinchey, the incumbent.  

      (N.B.  Julian was a classmate in law school before his transfer to a school in Connecticut.)

  •  LeMieux suddenly dropping out is a surprise (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

    Considering how badly he wanted to be senator, how hard he was working to rehabilitate himself among Florida Republicans post-Crist, and how little regard he seemed to have for Rep. Mack, I have to wonder if LeMieux was offered the carrot or the stick to get him out of the race.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:11:04 AM PDT

  •  The Greeks form a government (8+ / 0-)

    Prime Minister Samaras will lead a government comprised of New Democracy, PASOK, and the Democratic Left. Story here.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:36:42 AM PDT

    •  "Kouvelis of the Democratic Left (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera
      went a bit further Wednesday, saying that Greece should eventually "disengage" from the austerity commitments and "lift those measures that have literally bled society."
      The only question is when does this government collapse. I hope they manage to kick the can until November or so (as I hope pretty much everyone does on everything, I increasingly realize).

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition."

      by gabjoh on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:09:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Marquette WI poll (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, jj32, Delilah, MichaelNY

    Obama up 6 -- 49-43

    Thompson up 8 on Baldwin 49-41

    And Thompson is up in the R primary. No link on my phone atm.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:44:13 AM PDT

    •  Link (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Delilah, MichaelNY

      http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

      Likely voters.  Article seems to say he's ahead by 14 among registered voters.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:49:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Seems very plausible. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:49:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's rather unfortunate Kohl retired... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      I guess this is the balance to Snowe retiring and giving us a gift.  

      •  agreed. I have nothing against Baldwin (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, KingTag, MichaelNY, supercereal

        she seems like a good candidate. But this race is all about the GOP nominee. If Kohl had a run for re-election, Thompson wouldnt have run and we would have easily held this seat.

        Which would have been particularly great in year where we are playing so much defense.

        •  What do the internals say? (0+ / 0-)

          I'm not sure what to think of this race. I wonder if, for instance, Baldwin's background and sexuality will turn off more conservative Democrats; but then, is there that much of a difference between a lesbian from Madison and a black guy from Chicago? Can she successfully force Thompson to the right, while she pivots to the center and wins Independents?

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:46:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Well, they were the best in the recall (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY

      So I guess good news for Obama and Thompson.

      •  Which is exactly why . . . (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        . . . our side absolutely must stage an Operation Chaos to see to it that Neumann, not Thompson, gets the GOP nod. If Neumann got narrowly beaten by Feingold in the non-presidential year of 1998, I have a feeling he can be beaten, perhaps more than just narrowly, in a presidential year with a strong top of the ticket.

        29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

        by The Caped Composer on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 01:10:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Has anyone really ever done that? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Has that ever been successful, except in a razor-thin race where you can attribute victory to any tiny factor?

          How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition."

          by gabjoh on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:31:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What, an operation chaos? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, MichaelNY

            You bet it's worked before . . . for the Republicans. In Michigan's open primary in 1998, the GOP ratf*cked us by staging an Operation Chaos and giving the laughable Geoffrey Fieger-- Dr. Kevorkian's lawyer-- the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. It can work, and it has worked. Time to work it!

            29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

            by The Caped Composer on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:53:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Have to hope there is election/polling fatigue (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      happening in Wisconsin as both those numbers are ugly.  

      •  Wouldn't call it ugly for Obama (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, itskevin, TofG, MichaelNY

        if he is leading by that much among LVs and by 14 amonr RVs.

      •  Ugly? (7+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, jj32, itskevin, askew, tk421, TofG, MichaelNY

        A six point lead is not ugly.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:13:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If Obama wins WI by 6 points (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bfen, MichaelNY

          then it might mean ugly things for either Wisconsin Democrats or national Democrats.  

          Obama won WI by 13.9 points, compared to a national win by 7.2 points.  Kerry won Wisconsin by 0.4 points, compared to a national loss by 2.4 points.  It was similar to the national numbers in 2000.

          So if Obama were to only win WI by 6 points, then WI has either arrested a blue trend at the national level, or has become an R+ state at the national level, or Obama is losing nationally, depending on which cycle you compare it to.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:20:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're assuming a uniform swing (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, askew, TofG, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            Which is dangerous.  

            “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

            by Paleo on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:24:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, no... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, bfen, MichaelNY

              ...I'm saying that there are two possibilities, assuming Obama wins WI by 6:

              1. Obama wins WI by 6, and WI has the same relationship with the national numbers that it did in 2008--that is, it's D+.  That would be bad news for Obama and for national Democrats.

              2. Obama wins WI by 6, but WI has a different relationship with the national numbers--that is, it's less D+ or even R+.  That's bad news for state Democrats, since it would mean that WI was less Democratically-leaning relative to the country than it was in 2008.    (Although they have enough problems already.)

              Uniform swing would only be the first option.

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:28:31 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  And anyway (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Uniform swing ain't that bad.  Remember, every time we consider PVI, we're assuming a uniform swing--that where a district's been relative to national numbers, uniformly, is important information.

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:30:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  And let's be honest (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lina, tietack, MichaelNY

              If there had just been a high-profile victory for state Democrats in some state that McCain won by 14 points--say, Mississippi or Nebraska or Kansas--and then there was a poll showing Romney was only up by 6 points (even among likely voters), what would the reaction among Democrats be?  I'm thinking it'd be something like "derisive laughter".

              (Of course, Wisconsin's not as strongly Democratic as Nebraska or Kansas is strongly Republican--precisely because uniform national swing isn't that bad, i.e., because we know that we should compare the national Obama/McCain numbers to the state numbers, which means that 14-point wins for the two candidates aren't symmetric.)

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:40:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Perhaps Wisconsin is turning into Minnesota, (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TofG, lina, tietack, MichaelNY

                where Republicans will see strong to very strong returns but never close the deal at the presidential level.

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:05:05 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  It's been like that for awhile (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Bush I got close in 1988, and Bush II got close both times he ran. It's got the same PVI as Minnesota or Pennsylvania.

                  Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

                  by fearlessfred14 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 09:37:47 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Hmmm, your (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lina, MichaelNY

                comments are making me think a lot about this.

                What I wonder, though, is whether the fundamentals of 2008 added a few more points than we would have otherwise seen. I think 2008 was a much better year for Democrats than 2004 was for Republicans, and 2000 was kind of the epitome of neutral. Or is this already reflected in the numbers?

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:12:32 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  neutrality (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  lina, MichaelNY
                  I think 2008 was a much better year for Democrats than 2004 was for Republicans, and 2000 was kind of the epitome of neutral.
                  This implies that a neutral baseline results in something close to a national tie. But the fact that Bush won by only 3 in 2004 despite being the September 11th hero president, and that Obama appears to be slightly favored despite the fact that the economy has been in the crapper his entire term in office, suggests to me that the baseline is slightly in the Dems' favor these days (after being in Republicans' favor from the 70s through the 90s). The way I want to put it is that the US as a whole is about D+2, though I'm not sure if that makes sense.

                  That's not very scientific, but it is my gut feel about where things stand.

                  •  Given that Democrats have hit 50% (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    lina, Chachy, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                    a mighty "once" in the past , uh, 11 Presidential elections or whatever, I think this is maybe a little premature.  (And yes, I know you mention the past.  All I'm saying is that I'm not going to believe in this "natural Democratic advantage" thing until the last general election wasn't a massive Democratic slaughter, at least.)

                    What you're saying, if I understand correctly, is that you think Democrats will over-perform the fundamentals, and Republicans will under-perform them.  But I'm not aware of any evidence that Obama over-performed in 2008, or that an Obama win, especially a narrow one, would necessarily be over-performing the fundamentals in 2012.

                    Remember, incumbency is often a big part of these models, although my sense is there's some conflict for 2012 depending on which model you use, like this guy says:

                    Put concretely, weighted disposable income growth says this economy is by far the 2nd worst for a presidential term since 1952, while GDP of the 2nd quarter of a presidential year says it is only 5th worst (just behind 2004).
                    There's also the issue of whether or not voters hold Presidents accountable for the absolute state of the economy, or for how it's changed over their term.

                    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:09:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Heh. Fair points. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, bumiputera

                      I'll admit this is a pretty wishy-washy intuition on my part, rather than a well-worked out belief. But I'll just mention in regards to this:

                      Given that Democrats have hit 50% a mighty "once" in the past , uh, 11 Presidential elections or whatever, I think this is maybe a little premature.
                      that Republicans have hit 50% a mighty once in the last 5 elections; that Democrats have won the popular vote in 4 of those 5 elections; and that they would have won 50% in 3 and possibly 4 of those elections if not for third parties.

                      And to put a little bit of analytical muscle on these bones, I would point out that most analysts say that Obama needs about 39% of the white vote to win this year; that that would be equal to the second-lowest share of the white vote any Dem has received going back to 1980 (only Mondale did worse than that); and that the white electorate is far less working-class (using Ruy Teixeira's definition) than it was in the 80s. That is indicative of a very solid electoral floor, if nothing else.

                  •  I tipped this (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Inoljt

                    But though it would be off-topic to debate this here, I can't let your remark about Bush as the "September 11th hero" go by without comment. If we had such fucking "heroes" all the time, our country would have been utterly destroyed several times over.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 09:49:49 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Oh believe me, it was tongue in cheek. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, bumiputera

                      September 11th happened on his watch, and incredibly he never ever got criticized for that in any real way. Still, he was riding 80+% approval, strutting around on aircraft carriers, starting wars just for the hell of it, and members of the mainstream media were actively suppressing criticism of Bush as "unpatriotic." And Mr. Cowboy Face still dang near managed to not get re-elected.

              •  So the symmetrical equivalent would be (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lina, Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

                North Carolina, maybe? An R+3 state in 2008, the inverse of WI's D+3? Or maybe Missouri, which was R+4, and less strong than that for republicans prior to that (so maybe an even better example than NC) ...And I think Democrats' reaction to Romney being up by 6 in either of those places would not exactly be "derisive laughter."

                Which is to say, Obama being up by 6 in a likely voter screen in Wisconsin is perfectly fine.

                •  the likely voter screen for the poll (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  tommypaine, MichaelNY

                  according to another commenter was that the respondent had to say he/she was "certain" to vote. That is a pretty tight screen.

                  •  If true, that is always a sign of poor methodology (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    You simply can't just ignore people who are 80% or 33% likely to vote.  These non-certain people have to be proportionally represented, otherwise you have an invalid poll.

                    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                    by tommypaine on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 01:11:42 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  What do you mean by (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      proportionally?

                      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:24:24 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I corrected myself a bit in the other thread (0+ / 0-)

                      so here too.

                      It's only poor methodology if the poll is labeled "likely voters".  It is not.  It is a poll of "certain voters".

                      That's not a very useful bit of data, but it is what it is.  The number does seem to show the level below which Obama can not go.  The "likely-but-not-certain" voters are a subset of the registered voters that are not included in the "certain" voter group.  This group must obviously favor Obama by greater than the 14 points of the registered voter group because that group includes the subset of certain voters where Obama only leads by 6 points.

                      The more non-certain voters there are, the more it will suck for Mitt.

                      If Marquette is right, there is no chance Mitt can win Wisconsin.

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:30:21 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Are we using PVI (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  or aren't we?  Remember, PVI relies on uniform national swing being a decent baseline.  I have no idea if this poll is right or wrong--my original point was simply that, if Obama wins WI by 6 points, then pretty much by definition it'll either be an even or R+ state or he'll be having a pretty narrow election nationally, at best.

                  (I probably shouldn't have posted the McCain thing.  I don't know what I was thinking.)

                  26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:16:17 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I'm going to ignore WI polls for the next 2 months (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, MichaelNY

                until the fever from the recall dissipates.

                Sort of like what happened in IA for a while after the Rs campaigned there early this year -- but different, as I think there's a "halo" effect around Rs in WI, because they won the recall, that will dissipate -- completely -- in the heat of the general election campaign.

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 07:10:50 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think that's perfectly reasonable (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Again, I don't know anything about this poll--I was just saying that, should the results actually occur, it'd probably be bad news for Wisconsin or for national Democrats.

                  26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 07:15:55 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  WI as a whole has a PVI of D+2 (0+ / 0-)

            Keep that in mind every time we do electoral analysis of WI here at DKE.

            I have heard rumors that State Sen. Dale Schultz might switch parties from R to D and run for either Lieutenant Governor or Secretary of State in 2014.

            "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

            by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jun 23, 2012 at 05:06:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  This basically zero movement (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack, MichaelNY

          From the recall exit polls.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:09:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  6 points in a likely voter model is pretty good (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, askew, TofG, DCCyclone, tietack, MichaelNY

        It's 14 points among RVs, which was Obama's margin in 2008.

        So some better than expected turnout for Obama, and that margin increases.

        And all of this after a tough loss for Dems in the recall.

    •  DSCC appears to be trying to ratf*** this race (6+ / 0-)

      http://www.wispolitics.com/...

      Attacking both Thompson and Hovde for their insider Washington ties plays into Neumann's narrative. If Neumann wants to be the conservative alternative, he can't have Hovde getting any traction. Similarly, he can't afford for Thompson to be seen as acceptable among those voters either.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:46:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IN-09: WCF has endorsed Shelli Yoder. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:48:22 AM PDT

  •  NH-Gov: Maggie Hassan has raised (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin

    $700,000 and has $400,000 COH.

    http://www.innovatenewhampshire.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:49:46 AM PDT

  •  Do official campaigns get ad cost break? (0+ / 0-)

    I read somewhere that the official campaign ads are legislated to get cheaper rates - so SuperPAC ads cost upwards of 20% more - Is this true?

  •  How Bob Kerrey Can Win (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack

    I posted this yesterday, and yet again, I'm told I am too optimistic. I'm certainly not looking to pick a fight with markhanna, but I am trying to advance this discussion just a bit more.

    As you can see from clicking on the link, I think the key to victory is for him to attack Fischer on the Ryan plan or anything in that area. Not only would this undercut some of the advantages Fischer would have with seniors, it might be a move to help Kerrey with the biggest group, those between 45/46 and 64, whom are the least likely to be able to quickly adapt to a big change in the program and thus might be more worried. The link shows how some solid moves bring him close, but don't get him over that hump. With an age break down of 17/27/38/18, which is what CNN had for 2008, Kerrey could win if he were to see a split of 60/40/55/50, although just barely.

    Is this too much? Perhaps. But for those who think I am being way too optimistic, I have to ask, is it because you think the strategy isn't as powerful as I suspect it might be or because Nebraskans are just too Republican? I don't think it will be easy, but certainly seems doable. Or rather, it seems worth trying; after all, what else might work?

    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

    by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:03:14 AM PDT

    •  Yeah, if Kerrey wins with seniors, he'll... (8+ / 0-)

      ...probably win.  But by the same argument, if, I don't know, Kirsten Gillibrand's opponent wins with Hispanics and African-Americans, then they'll probably win.  Problem is, Gillibrand's opponent isn't going to win NY minorities, and Kerrey isn't going to win NE seniors.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:15:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think (0+ / 0-)

        it's more likely that Kerrey wins with seniors than Gillibrand's opponent wins with minorities, even if it's not all that likely. I get that you don't think it's likely, but my question is, why? I'll be the first to admit that I can get wrapped up in my own head, but I don't think I am suggesting anything truly ridiculous here, i.e. "If Obama wins 60 percent of Mormons in Utah..."

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:39:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Because most people (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, bythesea, The Caped Composer

          are pretty firm partisans, because Nebraska has a lot of firm Republicans, and because Nebraska seniors are probably even more firm in their partisanship and even more strongly Republican than are Nebraskans as a whole.

          I know the Ryan plan polls badly, but the same argument applies here as applies when we were speculating about the electoral effects of Obama's gay marriage announcement or the contraception coverage mandate (and which I've read from Bernstein or DCC or others):  It's one thing to tell a pollster that something sounds bad, and it's quite another thing to actually care about it enough to discard all the other issues you've cared about and voted on for a long time.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:46:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Okay, good. (0+ / 0-)

            But at the same time, an issue like Social Security or Medicare can cut across party lines and affect people directly, in the same way a job loss would affect them. There will always be some people that won't vote for us, but I have to wonder whether we can't increase our totals with a group that depends directly on these programs or is about to, particularly in a very tough economic time and particularly when the more they learn about the legislation, the less they end up liking it. Maybe that last part won't hold true in Nebraska, for any number of reasons, but I am not convinced until we see it in action.

            At this point, what else do you suggest? Forget the discussion of how many resources should be devoted to the race from outside the candidate's own coffers and think about what should be discussed.

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:02:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  What would I suggest? (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer, gabjoh, MichaelNY

              I dunno.  What would you suggest to the people running against Kirsten Gillibrand?  There isn't always a campaigning strategy that will give every possible outcome.

              And I think that "the more they learn, the less they like" probably depends very heavily on who they're learning from.

              Also, not that I really think this likely matters one way or the other, but there doesn't seem to be a "very tough economic time" in Nebraska: The unemployment rate is like 4%.

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:26:13 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't mean to seem hostile or anything. (0+ / 0-)

                I'm simply saying that something has to be done; it's not as if he's going to sit on his hands from now until November. I understand why few if any resources will be devoted to the race, but he's got to have some plan in place. Considering the likelihood of Fischer being no different than most of the other senators in her party, this seems like a good place to start.

                You're right that they need to hear it from a comforting source. Perhaps Chuck Hagel is up to endorsing Kerrey. (That is a joke, mostly.) Or better yet, Warren Buffet. He's enormously popular in the state, and maybe he can be persuaded to campaign with Kerrey. He's firmly behind Obama, after all.

                I don't know what I'd tell the people running against Gillibrand. For one thing, I am not a good representation of how a Republican things. What's more, several of them, if not all of them, appear to be nuts. I'd guess I'd focus on job creation and tax reform, but that's really a guess. New York is quite a bit harder to campaign in than Nebraska is, but at the same time, it's not impossible to make an impression.

                Also, don't unemployment rates at the state level not matter as much as national conditions? I somehow doubt Nebraska's been entirely insulated from the national economy. Even if it has been, I suspect protecting Medicare and Social Security would still be of interest to most people.

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:48:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The national conditions are important (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  gabjoh, MichaelNY

                  for how the incumbent party does, I think.  I recall wwmiv saying there was some evidence that the state economy can matter in state elections if there's a trifecta.  I only mentioned it in response to your point.  

                  And--you think of opposing the Ryan plan as protecting Medicare and Social Security.  Do you think that's what Republicans think, including Republican voters?

                  As for your broader question: I dunno.  I'm not Kerrey's campaign manager.  Plenty of politicians campaign energetically for offices they have little to no chance of winning.

                  26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:18:51 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  because Nebraska Republicans (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, The Caped Composer

          have been, literally, Republican their entire lives.

          Nebraska's had an R+ PVI for 99% of voters' entire lives.  It's even less likely to vote for a Dem than somewhere like Alabama where people at least remember being Democrats.

          And Alabama's still a fucking hard state to win for a Democrat.  At this point, Nebraska's worse.  It's socially conservative; Kerrey's pro gay (and I think pro choice).
          It's economically conservative; Kerrey's economically moderate.

          Fischer is a better fit for the state in every single way.

          I know you're optimist, but please, please give up on Nebraska.

          19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

          by jncca on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:53:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It did vote for him in the past, as it did (0+ / 0-)

            for Nelson.

            Like I said to Xenocrypt, forget the argument about spending resources. Think of how Kerrey himself should take on Fischer and what should be discussed. Is there anything better to talk about?

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:06:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do we even know if Fischer's endorsed (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, gabjoh, MichaelNY

              the Ryan plan?  If so, he needs to run on that, but it won't matter.  Commanding leads in red states by Republicans don't go away barring scandals.

              It's his only shot, but this is a Safe R race.

              I think Connecticut is more likely to flip than Nebraska, to be honest.  Possibly even Pennsyvlania.  At this point, Kerrey's a terrible fit for the state; it'd be like running Sebelius in Kansas this cycle after she's been in the Obama Administration.  No chance. Give up. The end.

              19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

              by jncca on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:54:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  She hasn't stated an opinion, which does (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                give Kerrey an opening.

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 02:03:10 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  You forget Nebraska's history (0+ / 0-)

            Chuck Hagel and Mike Johanns are the only Republicans elected to the Senate since 1970 from Nebraska.  Sure, some of the elections have been close and recent trends might suggest otherwise, but, historically speaking, for the past 40 years only 2 Republicans have been elected to the Senate.  

            That's not to suggest that history has anything to do with whether or not Kerrey can win.  However, your premise in comparing it to a state like Alabama is also false.  Locally, Alabama and other Deep South states might be Democratic, federally it is a whole other matter.  There is a big difference in the local and federal Democratic parties.  

        •  For further thoughts... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, gabjoh, MichaelNY

          I found this article, and it seems pretty sensible, from last year, after there had been a few Ryan polls:

          First off, you can forget about any conclusions you’ve gleaned from the last few weeks of survey data.] Results from a bunch of reputable national polling outlets have varied wildly based on question wording. Things are just all over the map and provide no consensus whatsoever[.]

          [...]

          In the tracking poll, a majority of respondents changed their answer after hearing a rudimentary argument against their originally stated position, no matter which one it was. That might mean that the “education phase” is key and people are easily being swayed by political argument.

          But I suspect it shows something else: The public is not paying attention to, or strongly invested in, this debate. Sure, there have been some boisterous town halls and polling suggests the public has positive feelings toward Medicare, vague awareness of a deficit problem and a vague wariness of the word “vouchers.” And shifting some medical costs from government entitlement programs to individuals will never be massively popular. But there’s no evidence that Ryan’s plan or Democratic mobilization against it has changed anything yet.

          It reminds me of the old discussions of "polling literalism".

          "Oh, yeah, that sounds bad.  What?  It'll solve the deficit?  Oh, yeah, that sounds o.k. then.  Can I go yet?"

          Sometimes, policies really do suddenly shift the partisan affiliations of a large group.  But I don't know if the Ryan Plan is exactly some kind of inverse Civil Rights Act.

          And, as Bernstein always points out, Republicans get a lot of information from, and place a lot of trust in, other Republicans (and the same for Democrats, of course).  If Kerrey goes after Fischer on the Ryan plan (as I'm sure he will, and as I'm sure Democrats everywhere will go after Republicans everywhere), then there'll be counter-arguments from Republican sources, which will probably sound pretty good to Republican partisans--like Nebraska seniors.  

          That's not to say it'll have no effect, but it probably won't have any effect on a strongly partisan group.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:55:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But we aren't talking about flipping (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            a lot of hardcore partisans. We're talking about going from about 40 percent to somewhere between 45 and 55 percent. There's still a huge chunk of people that will be voting against our candidate.

            Your article seems good, and thanks for mentioning it, but I wonder how much it matters for issues where people are directly affected. If it's as simple as saying "Plan X will cut Social Security and Medicare," will they be as easily moved? I am skeptical about that.

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:09:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  How he can win (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      If they change the election date and don't tell Nebraska voters except for Kerrey.

      Down 25 in Republican poll released today.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:12:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  if Kerrey hadn't retired in 2000 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      in the first place, would he be better off in 2012?

      also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

      by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 01:24:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I encourage you, bjssp (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      even though I usually am closer to markhanna in your debates.

      It's important to see things from an optimistic point of view, to help brainstorm the possibilities, to look at alternatives that could be winners, in this case for NE-Sen.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 07:13:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks! Here's what I am getting at. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, SLDemocrat

        I know it looks highly unlikely we are going to win and that that probably won't change. By all means, we should support our candidates however we can, but I'm certainly not suggesting that we skip on defending the seats we hold in Virginia and Wisconsin or the ones we are trying to pick up in Nevada and Massachusetts.

        But Kerrey's our candidate, and he'll be on the ballot no matter what, so we might as well think of how he will contest this seat. He can't be one-trick pony, but he can have a theme.

        No doubt part of it needs to be economic reform, whether it's taxes, jobs, or something else along those lines. Nebraska might have a low unemployment rate, but short of seeing direct proof otherwise, I can't help but believe voters will be receptive to such discussions.

        All that sounds good, but I think the key is talking about how Republicans plan to abolish the entitlements, however slowly. Unless Nebraska's very unique in this regard, people like them and want to see them protected. Fischer might not have  given an opinion on this, but she should have done so by now. It might be easier enough for her to hedge on this for the entire campaign, or simply lie and claim she won't do what most of her colleagues have already done in supporting the Ryan plan, like Johanns. Doing so might just work. But why not press her on this, tie her to everyone else who supports it, or something worse, and see what happens? We don't have a whole lot of other options.

        He might not be able to run a lot of ads, even if he gets more in donations than we expect. But he can open his mouth and speak to anyone who will listen. Nebraska's small enough (and condensed enough, in some ways) that he can try a pavement pounding approach without it being completely futile, like it would be in Texas or California.

        No doubt in the end, this might all prove completely pointless, with Kerrey losing by an embarrassing margin. But without trying much of anything at all, we are guaranteed to lose. My point is not to be optimistic but to be realistic, in the sense of doing something, because we can't just sit on our hands.

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:07:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  PA-01: Did we cover this? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, jj32, TofG, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    "Apparent break-in attempt at congressman's home, officials say"':

    Men in masks apparently attempted to break into the Pennsylvania home of Democratic Rep. Robert Brady on Friday, according to his congressional spokeswoman, Karen Warrington.

    The phone lines into the house were severed, police said. Brady's wife was home alone at the time, they said.

    It doesn't seem like anyone was hurt, but geez!  (I know it's not really electoral, but still.)

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 11:07:46 AM PDT

  •  I'm sure this has been asked before (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    but is there any logical reason for Gallup's approval rating to be a 3 day average, while Obama/Romney numbers are a 7 day average?

  •  Additional info on the Bloomberg poll (6+ / 0-)

    Q&A:

    FW: So we have voters opting for what they perceive to be the lesser of two evils?

    AS: Not entirely. People have a sense that things are better. The gloom has bottomed out. When you ask if they're better off, an increasing number say yes. In fact, by 45 percent to 36 percent voters say they're personally better off. That's up from 38 percent saying they were better off in March and 27 percent saying so in September.

    FW: So is this poll the definitive snapshot of U.S. politics as of June 20, 2012?

    AS: Polls are variable. Things will change. We didn't have any red flag in here that said we have a bad poll. We have a surprising poll. June has been a bad month.  For Romney.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:08:09 PM PDT

  •  I hope the DSCC doesn't waste one dollar (13+ / 0-)

    on Bob Kerrey.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:08:32 PM PDT

  •  Obama airing 3 new Spanish ads in Florida. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, jj32, itskevin, MichaelNY, Kitty

    I haven't seen these before. Any Spanish speakers want to analyze them?

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:38:06 PM PDT

  •  NE-Sen: Dem poll shows Kerrey doing poorly too (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY
    Former Sen. Bob Kerrey trails by a wide margin in the Nebraska Senate race, according to a poll taken for the Democratic group Project New America, a source tells me.

    The survey, conducted between June 11 and 13, showed Kerrey trailing Republican state Sen. Deb Fischer by 14 points, 38 percent to 52 percent.

    ...

    Fischer is still relatively undefined, with 42 percent of respondents viewing her positively and 12 percent viewing her negatively. But after testing a series of attacks on both Fischer and Kerrey, the poll doesn’t show dramatic movement in the race: Fischer still leads by a sizable 8-point gap, 48 percent to 40 percent.

    The presidential race in the state is not close, but it’s closer than the Senate contest. Obama trails Romney by 12 points, taking 40 percent to the Republican’s 52 percent. Romney’s image is 41 percent positive, 35 percent negative.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:40:31 PM PDT

    •  Maria Cantwell is more vulnerable than Deb Fischer (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:56:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Um, if that poll is valid, then (0+ / 0-)

      they should feel far more encouraged to do something, whatever it is, to go after Fischer. It's still unlikely he wins, but an eight-point margin isn't the same that we are seeing in other polls.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:09:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  OR HD-26 Wingard (R) ends his campaign for (5+ / 0-)

    re-election.

    Accidentally posted in yesterdays, and I thought since I'd been mentioning it I should update you.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:46:06 PM PDT

  •  FL-18 Born and Raised (4+ / 0-)

    I was born and raised in Stuart, which is one of the largest cities in the district. I've been telling this to whoever would listen, but Sheriff Crowder is exactly the type of Republican who could get elected in FL-18. Alan West is too extreme for the district and Sheriff Crowder has deep roots in the district. The Republicans in Martin County will essentially decide the primary, and they tend to be upper-income, business-minded moderates. I call them Alex Sink-Republicans because my parents and most of their nominally conservative friends voted Sink over Scott. There are teabaggers in the district but they are not the majority of Republicans.

    The district now includes deep blue parts of Port St Lucie and Ft Pierce that should make it nearly impossible for Alan West to get elected. However, if Crowder gets through the primary (and he stands an excellent shot) then this district probably becomes Likely Republican. If Alan West prevails, then it's at least toss up if not Leans D.

    27yo. Gay Male. Democrat. WA-07.

    by VanityFlair on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:47:58 PM PDT

    •  yes and no (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      Crowder really isn't even a Republican.  A district with an R+ PVI will vote for a real Republican, although generally districts like this won't vote for someone like West.

      Crowder's to the left of the district; he'd be a great candidate for our side in 2014 if West wins this cycle.

      You live in Washington.  Imagine Darcy Burner running in a Democratic primary for the old WA-2 (Larsen, about D+3) against a guy who said he might be voting for Romney.

      Burner would get 75%.  Same thing's gonna happen here.

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 12:59:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This district has a history... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        of not voting for damaged candidates. Remember Mark Foley? Alan West is also a damaged candidate.

        Crowder is a Charlie Christ style republican and that still plays well in most republican circles in Martin County. I can't speak as much for the rest of the district, but I can definitely say that Crowder has a lot of support from very conservative voters based on his history in the district. Regardless of PVI, Crowder has lived among and shook the hands of many people in the district. Alan West and Patrick Murphy haven't, they are carpetbagging.

        This is all coming from my parents who are very conservative (they won't even acknowledge my partner of 5yrs and are vehemently anti choice) and also Crowder supporters.

        27yo. Gay Male. Democrat. WA-09

        by VanityFlair on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 01:12:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Is Crowder that well-liked and well-known? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      I imagine he will be outspent heavily in the primary.

      27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 01:04:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Crowder rather conspicuously (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades, bumiputera

      Released a (questionable) internal poll... of the general election. He didn't bother including a primary portion. Why was that, I wonder?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 02:49:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I would say Tossup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      It would definitely be Lean D if West wasn't a chicken and stayed in FL-22 (which was ironically redrawn to include his hometown this time).

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:08:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-07 Republican voter registration fraud (7+ / 0-)

    Huh?  I thought only Democrats engaged in voter fraud.

    Oh wait...

    Dick Lugar, senator from Indiana, maintaining Indiana voter registration without being an Indiana resident.

    Todd Akin, representative from Missouri, maintaining voter registration in Town and Country, MO while living in Woodward, MO.

    Charlie White, a former Secretary of State of Indiana, charged with the duties of overseeing voter registrations, booted from office by being convicted of false registration, voting in another precinct, and submitting a false ballot, along with theft and perjury.

    Thad McCotter, representative from Michigan, whose campaign photocopied voter petitions to get him on the ballot.

    Julius Henson, political consultant for former Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich, sentenced to jail for conspiracy to violate election law for his part in a robocall to tell people Martin O'Malley had won before polls were even closed.

    Add to this list, people, and pass it on.

  •  Holder held in contempt by Houe committee (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    will be interesting to see how this plays politically, if at all.

  •  I would have thought Cantwell would be up by more (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    than that.

    John Hickenlooper remains one of my favorite possible contenders for 2016 if he wants it, which I don't think he does.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 01:37:22 PM PDT

  •  CPA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, VClib

    Huh. Was this widely known?

    The group recently added a key ally in the form of Jerome Armstrong — a member of the liberal vanguard of net-roots bloggers from the past decade. Linbeck hopes Armstrong can offer advice on targeting Democratic incumbents and give the super PAC the bona fides to raise money from wealthy liberals.
  •  UPDATE CA-29 Trend May Be Occurring (8+ / 0-)

    The margin between "Yes" and "No" on Prop 29 has now gone below 12,500 (12,419 to be exact). For the last few days it has been at around 19,000.

    Correspondingly, Feinstein's margin is now at 49.6%. It had been at 49.5% the last several days.

    This could indicate a trend -- later absentee/ provisional votes may have been more Democratic/ progressive.

    We should know in the next few days if this is indeed a trend.

    If Feinstein gets to 49.8% I would think Prop 29 will definitely pass.

    SOS Prop 29

    The measure has been picking up support in San Diego and Los Angeles Counties.

    Tax Initiative Picking Up Votes

  •  Bloomberg Poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    This has been commented above, but I wanted to add a quick thought. The poll is by Ann Selzer, who is widely respected as a pollster in Iowa. However, I'm not sure she's done much in the way of national polls other than this one.

    To me this one does scream outlier, although as Tommy Paine points out above, it's probably just a matter of turnout assumptions that can't be proven or disproven at this juncture. But it doesn't match up with 99 percent that's out there, not only in the national polls but the state polls.

    So yeah, outlier until more evidence.

  •  Bad news/Good news (13+ / 0-)

    Bad news: I'm gonna have a lot less time to post on and read DKE in the next few months.

    Good news: That's because I'll be field organizing in a light-red state. It's gonna be my first time being an FO - anyone have any advice?

    How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition."

    by gabjoh on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 02:28:43 PM PDT

  •  Magnificent comment on the Tyner story. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slacks, sapelcovits, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    "Any politician that would resist the sexual advances of a willing campaign worker clearly has no future in Congress….."

  •  who has been the odd man out in past (0+ / 0-)

    reapportionments?

    From my memory

    Pennsylvania 2000 - Bob Borski and the PA 20 Guy (can't remember name)

    Pennsylvania 1990 - Dick Schulze and Joseph Gaydos

    Pennsylvania 1980 - Don Bailey and John Dougherty

    Pennsylvania 1970 - one suburban Pittsburgh seat (not sure who) and William Green (he lucked out when an incumbent retired in one of the other Philly seats)

    Pennsylvania 1960 - one white democrat in Philly was sacrificed to preserve the Nix black majority district and one district around York and one around reading was eliminated (not sure who exactly)

    Pennsylvania 1950 - not sure

    Pennsylvania 1940 - not sure

    Pennsylvania 1930 - not sure

    New York 2000 - Louise Slaughter (she ran in LaFalce's seat) and Ben Gilman

    New York 1990 - Frank Horton, Jim Scheuer, Bob Mrazek

    New York 1980 - Pete Peyser, Jon Bingham, John LeBoutillier (he ran in Carman's seat) and Leo Zeferetti

    New York 1970 - Jim Scheuer (different seat), Seymour Halpern and Bella Abzug (she got lucky when Bill Ryan died). IIRC, the state only lost two but a new seat had to be created in West suffolk/East Suffolk.

    New York 1960 - Herb Zelenko, Al Santangelo, one Brooklyn district (can't remember who) and John Taber (the state only lost two as two new seats were created in the LI suburbs)

    New York 1950 - can't remember who

    Illinois 2000 - John Shimkus (he ran against Phelps IIRC)

    Illinois 1990 - Frank Annunzio and Terry Bruce

    Illinois 1980 - Ed Derwinski and Phil Crane (Crane IIRC got lucky when Bob McClory retired and ran in his seat instead)

    Illinois 1960 - Sid Yates and Peter Mack A new district was created in the northwest chicago suburbs to keep the net loss at -1.

    Illinois 1950 - can't remember who but IIRC, it was a downstate seat.

    also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

    by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:01:09 PM PDT

    •  oh and I forgot that in 1980 (0+ / 0-)

      New York lost an additional seat. I think Syracuse was cracked in the 70s and in 1981 the base of the two districts was merged into an Onondoga centered district and the rural areas from the two districts were distributed among other population shy districts.

      also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

      by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:03:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2000 in PA was supposed to be Holden in PA-6/17 (0+ / 0-)

      because Gekas represented a lot more of PA-17 than Holden did and that seat was very red. Holden ran a much better race and Gekas was very rusty from not having a tough race previously and Holden went on to keep that seat until recently.

    •  PA-20 guy was Frank Mascara. n/t (0+ / 0-)

      Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:37:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  David Phelps was the odd man out, not Shimkus (0+ / 0-)

      Bill Lipinski was a selfish representative for Democrats in the redistricting lawsuit.  He really just wanted a safe district for himself (that his son wouldn't have to worry about) and let Speaker Hastert run the tables with the competitive districts.  This forced Phelps to run in a district that was mostly Shimkus'.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:10:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  speaking of lipinski (0+ / 0-)

        had the original district he represented in the 80s been kept mostly intact - is it possible he would have lost renomination to a mexican? If you want to know what it originally looked like, you ask twohundertseventy and he can upload it for you.

        also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

        by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:32:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wisconsin 2000 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      Tom Barrett was the odd one out when the south Milwaukee district (old WI-05) got dismembered.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:19:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I haven't watched TV in a while (6+ / 0-)

    and saw several Obama ads today. So they are airing ads in Indiana, or at least the Indianapolis market. If anybody is wondering.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:15:43 PM PDT

    •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

      Bad use of resources though.

      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM2 (Raised), TX20 (B.A. and M.A.in Pol. Sci.), TX17 (Live); Taste my skittles? Intern w/ Pete Gallego for Congress.

      by wwmiv on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:33:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or maybe they polled and see something (5+ / 0-)

        promising.

        •  When was the last time Indiana was polled (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          by anyone reputable? It's got to be several months, no?

          Is it legal/cost-effective for PPP to try it now? Anything above 40 percent would make me think it's a second-tier state that should be considered for light investment. Anything above 45 percent would make me quite certain it should receive at least as much investment as last time.

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:52:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  If they're running ads, then it's not a waste (5+ / 0-)

          OFA has better polling than anyone, if they're running ads in Indiana it's because it's tightening and they have a shot.

          The field offices are one thing, but TV ads are way more expensive.  They're not even talking up Indiana, and they talked up Arizona without airing any TV ads there.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:08:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  At what point might the ads in Arizona start, (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, bumiputera

            if ever? It's way, way too early to concede a state like that, given the polling. And in the same vein as my question below, about ad spending, do you know of any source that lists all campaign offices, or at least the ones in the swing states?

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:20:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've always said Romney's and his allies... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bythesea, MichaelNY, bumiputera

              ...fundraising has killed our chances to expand the map to Indiana.  That's because Mitt, Inc. (my new term for Mitt plus the RNC and superpacs and other indy groups advertising) can match Obama in established battlegrounds, which means Obama can't afford to divert resources from those states.

              That's what money does, it allows you to expand the map if you have an advantage, or prevent your opponent from expanding if you can erase his financial advantage.

              But this report on TV ads in Indianapolis makes me rethink a little.  I'm now thinking that might be a national cable buy, but still, 4 ads in an hour is a lot.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:43:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  See, I think what you say sounds plausible, but (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico

                even with his potential to match (or surpass, with the help of Mitt, Inc., which is a superb creation of yours, by the way) his spending, I think being in Indiana is more possible than you do. Budgets are finite, and while more spending is always good, it can probably plateau in its effectiveness sooner rather than later. What's more, the infrastructure from last time didn't just disappear. Updating it is probably less costly than creating from scratch, which is what happened last time and what Mitt, Inc. might (probably?) have to do this time.

                Or, more generally, the amount of money in question, which is probably between $15-20 million, certainly ain't peanuts, spending it there probably won't prevent him from spending more than he needs in other states. I mean, if you look at his total fund raising from last time, it includes what it took to win the primaries. That isn't a factor this time, and if you conclude from this that raising roughly the same as last time easily frees up $50 million or so, if not double or triple that, then you can see how Indiana looks doable.

                On the other hand, the fact that I appear to be the only one suggesting this makes me suspect I am mistaken in looking at the race this way.

                At the risk of repeating myself more than I usually do, let me just say that I hope they are ready to pounce, if need be. I'd suspect that slightly more than the bare minimum could sustain a healthy rooster of volunteers until election day and that ads could be purchased fairly easily, even if they are purchased late, especially because Mitt, Inc. won't be doing much of anything. However you want to characterize what they are doing now, I'd say it's closer to doing what I want than not doing what I want. So, huzzah!

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:17:53 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  bj, you are, indeed, alone in this (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sapelcovits

                  It's a big deal to take away $15-20 million from more serious battlegrounds.  That's enough to be THE difference between winning or losing any of a bunch of real swing states that can decide the election.

                  If the polling isn't competitive in a state without laying any foundation, then you don't play there.  The reason Obama played in Indiana and elsewhere last time was that he was competitive in those states in early polling based entirely on his personal appeal, before putting a dime into those states.

                  But he's an incumbent now, and an embattled one.  That's not nearly the same scenario.  He still has the strong personal appeal to stay the favorite in all Gore/Kerry states and stay no worse than even in almost all other states he won last time.  But that has its limits.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 06:09:39 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Maybe they are seeing something (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    that they didn't see in recent months.

                    Well anyway, is there no distinction between what was spent on the primary and in the general last time?

                    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                    by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 06:17:49 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't follow your question (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, bumiputera

                      I'm saying before he spent a dime or much if any time campaigning in the primaries, he was competitive in states like Indiana, North Carolina, and Montana in early polling...and also North Dakota and Alaska, but those didn't stay competitive late.

                      He's in a different boat now.

                      But yes, things change and it's possible OFA is seeing something now that wasn't there months ago.

                      Problem is, why would things for Obama in that state have improved when economic news has gotten worse for 3 months in a row?  That doesn't make sense.

                      Still, ads are ads, OFA isn't going to waste money on a state where they don't want to play.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 07:01:21 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

            •  I believe they're waiting on voter reg results (4+ / 0-)

              Their "Spring offensive" voter registration drive was going to tell them if they could put it in play or not.  So we`ll know by early July either way.  

        •  Does the robocalling ban affect internal polling? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          A friend of mine works on the Gregg campaign – I asked him about their own internal polls and while he (understandably) couldn't tell me, he did say that even their campaign finds it hard to do polling very often, given the cost – something like $50K for a good one.

          Now, this may say more about the Gregg campaign's fundraising, but is it that expensive to do even campaign polling? And if that's the case, are the presidential campaigns even polling Indiana with regularity?

    •  I saw one at a Penn (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      food court, on MSNBC, I think.  (After a segment that, if the caption is accurate, informed viewers that "Kennedy may be swing vote on health care".)

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:33:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

      Does that market reach any others like, Michigan or Ohio? I'm guessing it doesnt, but just wondering.

      •  No, it's entirely within the Indiana border. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:58:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Indianapolis is it's own market (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It reaches pretty far out though, I remember in 2008 seeing Indy ads aired in Bloomington and hearing from my brother, who was in Muncie, telling me he was seeing IN-09 ads.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 12:05:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Some questions for you...... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      Were they pro-Obama or attacking Romney?

      If attacking Romney, was the disclosure "I'm Barack Obama and I approved this message"?  If not, they're not OFA ads.  Could be superpac or Planned Parenthood.  I don't think any other Obama allies are airing ads.

      And was this cable or broadcast?  I'm guessing cable,

      I'm stunned if they're airing ads in Indianapolis, I'm pretty sure the broadcast affiliates there don't reach western Ohio (they're definitely way too far away to reach Michigan), and cable buys would be local only.

      I've read nothing that says we have ad buys in Indiana.  These things can't be hidden, political reporters rely on ad tracking services to keep tabs on buys.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:07:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Um, what you said... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I might have asked you this before, so I apologize if I am turning into my mother and repeating myself, but do you know of any source that tracks this stuff and updates frequently?

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:11:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't have the services names memorized (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I see them from time to time in media reports but never look them up myself, so I don't remember.  I want to look them up now, though!

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:40:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Seems like a good way for a national (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            news source with lots of capabilities to grab eyeballs (cough, NYT, cough).

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:18:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  It was definitly an Obama campaign ad. (6+ / 0-)

        President Obama approved the ad in the beginning. saw it 4 times in about an hour. It was on cable, but that's still local right? And yes, the Indy media market is completly within the Indiana border.

        I can't seem to find it online, but the ad was essentially about raising taxes on the rich to help out the economy.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:21:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  [knock on wood] (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, MichaelNY, HoosierD42, drachaCRO

          If Obama is competing in Indiana and ends up winning the state in something other than a 40-plus-state route, would you support me taking a victory lap? Or at least give me a high-five or something? (They're free, as my boss says.)

          I mean, between this and saying the Democrats shouldn't give up on North Dakota, I'm looking pretty good. Now, if only the Democrats would listen to me about, say, Texas and Nebraska, the transition to socialism would be much further along.

          Seriously now, if do in fact contest it at least seriously as last time, it'll be very, very interesting to see what happens. If nothing else, it'll be a fairly decent test case of what can happen with a light- to medium-shade red state that has supported Democrats to decent degree at the state (and local?) level but has been largely if not entirely ignored at the presidential level in modern times.

          I've got this theory that, as money pours into politics, the electoral map is bound to expand, especially if the Electoral College is abolished. After all, there's only so much that can be done each cycle in Ohio and other traditional swing states. There aren't that many states like Indiana, with a decent number of Electoral votes that aren't THAT horribly partisan, but then, the ones that are left are mostly quite small and cheap to campaign in.

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:38:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I wonder if it's more the help out Donnelly... (0+ / 0-)

            Activate Obama supporters/donors in the cities to engage and maybe get behind Donnelly even if Obama will not contend the state.  

            •  But how do they do that? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Having the appropriate infrastructure in place seems the best way to do it because (a) it's hard if not impossible (and possibly ineffective) in trying to squeeze Donnelley and Obama in the same ad and (b) because it's probably less costly to simply have offices, which could in theory house the efforts of all sorts of Democrats. That said, you probably don't run ads without having this infrastructure in place, so...

              Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

              by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:21:41 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I'm less amazed about Indiana than most others (0+ / 0-)

            on this subsite, given that he won the state last time. But North Dakota looks less winnable in this cycle than last time, so I mildly disagree with you on that state.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:11:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Cable buys are local, so... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY

          ...OFA bought this ad specifically for an Indiana audience to see it.

          Cable is cheap, but 4 times in an hour is a fucking lot!  I'm in Northern Virginia which is one of the most important places in the country for OFA's strategy, and I don't see Obama ads that often.  Lately it's been at least once daily, but never 4 in an hour!

          This has to be somewhat stealth, I haven't seen anything anywhere about media buys in Indiana.  Not that TV ads can be kept secret once aired, but it's interesting.

          But it makes me wonder also where else is OFA making ad buys that hasn't been publicized?  Are they airing ads in, for example, Michigan?  Wisconsin?  Arizona?  Indiana wasn't among the 13 states in the original small ad buy, but those others were.

          Or, it's possible the ad buy you saw was national cable.  That can be done and sometimes is done.  But it strikes me as somewhat odd when they can buy the time locally.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:39:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What states were in the original ad buy? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Off the top of my head, there's definitely Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, along with Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada.  That's seven. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin seem obvious, and that's ten. You say Arizona, which would be 11. Minnesota seems like kind of a waste, as does New Mexico. With those, we get to 13.

            Well, I forgot New Hampshire, which would be 12. Indiana makes sense, I guess, as the final one, but was it Georgia or Missouri instead?

            And was it possible that a lot of this just flew under the radar? Were they advertising in some states, outside of the 13 you indicate, in some way, without the national press mentioning it? If so, which states?

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:27:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I live in the Milwaukee media market (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            and I have not seen any ads for November, which I think is wise given the saturation of ads we just had for the recall.

            All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home), recent Cornell University ILR Class of 2012 graduate.

            by glame on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:29:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Larry Bartels (6+ / 0-)

    on the "white working class":

    Haidt settles on the definition of the white working class offered by Ruy Teixeira and Alan Abramowitz, which includes white people without college degrees who are currently employed. (Excluding retirees and homemakers makes some difference, but not a lot. Focusing on education to the exclusion of income matters more; the resulting “white working class” is more affluent than the rest of the public. And of course, the big switch here is from “working-class people” to the white working class.) Using this definition—and focusing on party identification rather than voting behavior—Haidt concludes that, yes, “the white working class is leaving the Democratic Party.”

    [...]

    Haidt concludes that the political behavior of the white working class “depends [on] how you define class, and it depends on several moderator variables, including employment status." Well, yes; but it depends much more on region—and much, much more on ignoring people who don’t happen to be white.

    [...]
    I would have said: If Democrats want to be the party of the American working man and woman they’re currently doing pretty well, averaging 54% of the major-party vote among all employed people in the past five presidential elections. (The Democratic vote share among people not currently working is 57%; hardly a momentous social divide.)  But that way of putting it requires an acknowledgement that, nowadays, “the American working man and woman” is more often than not a college graduate, an African-American, or a Latino.

    Via Bernstein.  This really is one of my pet peeves--the way that pundits like to focus entirely on the voting behavior of the white electorate, which is of course more affluent and Republican than the overall electorate.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 03:52:18 PM PDT

    •  You're someone who has a better (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MichaelNY

      handle on the statistical stuff than I do, so tell me, do you think the fact that the maps in recent cycles being favorable to the Republicans skews this at a least a little?

      Democrat don't compete in quite a few states. A few, like Texas and Georgia, are big, but most are small. And even in the states where they have been favored, like New York and California, they of course aren't competing. In other words, they essentially ignore a lot of states (for entirely understandable reasons, of course). A lot of the states they aren't competing in have sizable minority populations, but they are still dominated by whites, the vast majority of whom vote against the Democrats nearly as much as the blacks vote against the Republicans. Actually contesting such states might not make them winnable, but no doubt being there would almost certainly help Democrats gain more white votes. The fact that this isn't happening is what naturally depresses the percentage of the vote for Democrats amongst whites.

      Do you get where I am going with this? I hope I am being clear, but I worry that I am not.

      Do you think this might make any difference? I really think it might. I also think the same could apply for Republicans, but usually doesn't, as minorities are a smaller portion of the vote than whites and their support of Republicans is usually quite small.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:03:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Somewhat relatedly (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, bythesea, jj32, MichaelNY

      Do you know what the unemployment rate is among white people?  Apparently it's 7.4% (as of May, anyway, and according to the BLS, I hope).

      (Also: the unemployment rate by "bachelor's degree or higher" is 3.9%!)

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 04:23:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Pundits like to do this thing (9+ / 0-)

      where they say "working class voters" but really only mean "white working class voters".  I've noticed it for awhile now and it's pretty irritating.

      I got tired of hearing people say how Democrats would never win if only white people could vote (outside of the northeast, of course).  It's like, yeah and your point is?  They never have a good response to that.

  •  I'm trying to look into this... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ...James C. Thomas guy, the Kansas City treasurer of that SuperPAC that went after Jeff Flake?

    It's all quite complicated.  I don't really know what to make of it.  Just try Googling "James C. Thomas"+treasurer.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:16:41 PM PDT

    •  While you're looking into Jeff Flake (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I've been meaning to ask if you could do one of your comparisons between Flake's and Trent Franks voting records to see if Will Cardon (Cadron?) would even be that different in the senate.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:36:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I can look quickly (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, MichaelNY, bumiputera

        but it's OpenCongress' comparisons (and highlighted votes) :)

        Flake Nay, Franks Aye:

        S.1 Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007   

         H.R.1955 Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007   

         H.R.4279 PRO-IP Act of 2007   

         S.3325 The Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights Act of 2008   

        H.R.547 Advanced Fuels Infrastructure Research and Development Act   

        H.R.1873 Small Business Fairness in Contracting Act   

        H.R.2317 Lobbying Transparency Act of 2007   

        H.R.2446 Afghanistan Freedom and Security Support Act of 2007   

        H.R.2830 Integrated Deepwater Program Reform Act   

        H.R.3195 ADA Restoration Act of 2007   

        H.R.5658 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2009   

        H.R.6599 Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Act, 2009   

        H.R.1404 Federal Land Assistance, Management and Enhancement Act   

        H.R.2200 Transportation Security Administration Authorization Act   

        H.R.2346 Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2009   

        H.R.3082 Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2010, Part II

        H.R.4061 Cybersecurity Enhancement Act of 2009   

        H.R.5013 Implementing Management for Performance and Related Reforms to Obtain Value in Every Acquisition Act of 2010   

        H.R.5072 FHA Reform Act of 2010   

        H.R.5822 Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2011   

        H.R.662 Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2011   

        H.R.2018 Clean Water Cooperative Federalism Act of 2011   

        H.R.2017 Continuing Appropriations Act, 2012   

        H.R.2055 Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2012   

        H.R.2218 Empowering Parents through Quality Charter Schools Act   

        H.R.3630 Welfare Integrity and Data Improvement Act   

        H.R.4281 Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2012   

        H.R.5325 Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2013   

        H.R.5855 Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2013   

        H.R.5854 Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2013   

        Flake Aye, Franks Nay
        H.R.3685 Employment Non-Discrimination Act of 2007   

         H.R.2200 Transportation Security Administration Authorization Act (Chaffetz amdt. to restrict whole-body imaging technology as a primary means of airport screening)   

         H.R.2965 Dont Ask, Dont Tell Repeal Act of 2010 (On repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell)   

         H.R.4626 Health Insurance Industry Fair Competition Act   

        H.R.1362 Accountability in Contracting Act   

        H.R.928 Improving Government Accountability Act   

        H.R.2740 MEJA Expansion and Enforcement Act of 2007   

        H.R.3648 Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007   

        H.R.3773 RESTORE Act of 2007   

        H.R.3254 Taos Pueblo Indian Water Rights Settlement Act   

        H.R.3342 Aamodt Litigation Settlement Act   

        H.R.4626 Health Insurance Industry Fair Competition Act   

        Click through here for more info--again, that's not every vote, just the ones OpenCongress highlighted as important.

        I'd say that's pretty different!  Unsurprising, since they're two of the most extreme Members of the House, in their own ways.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:58:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wow some of those make Franks look (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          like a raving lunatic.  "Clean water cooperative federalism act" sounds like the GOP's orwellian name for something abolishing the clean air/water act.

          Too bad he didn't run for senate since I think he would have easily won the nomination and been a weaker opponent/easier to dislodge if he won.  That's my only real worry with Flake is that he gets entrenched even as the state trends more Democratic/Latino.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 06:39:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  HI-02: Tulsi Gabbard's first ad. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slacks, tietack, MichaelNY

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:20:49 PM PDT

  •  League of Conservation Voters holding a poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

    Select one candidate from the list.  First place vote-getter will win a $5K donation from their PAC, 2nd place $2.5K, 3rd place $1K:
    http://cleanhouse.lcv.org/

    I voted Bera.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:22:34 PM PDT

  •  Sigh, Yahoo.com had a headline (5+ / 0-)

    "Obama in the red in May". While technically accurate(OFA spent $5 million more in May than they took in), they are still sitting on $110 million. Misleading headline, imo.

    •  Something seems odd here. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bumiputera

      I didn't realize more details had been released until I went looking, based on what you said, and I found this from The Huffington Post:

      The Romney campaign reported Wednesday that it raised $23.4 million in May and the RNC reported raising an eye-popping $34.2 million. The Obama campaign reported raising $39.1 million in May and the DNC reported taking in $19.9 million. That leaves Obama and the DNC with a total of $59.1 million raised, and Romney and the RNC with $57.6 million -- $19.2 million less than reported earlier in June.
      THP attributes the difference to some indirect arm or group called the Romney Victory fund. If I am reading the rest of the article correctly, Obama and the DNC were not out raised by Romney and the RNC, although it was close. Is that right?

      Not that it necessarily matters, because all together, Obama might be outspent. The Yahoo! article you mentioned quotes one strategist saying Romney might have a $100 million month, but then, the article from THP indicates Romney's fund raising continues to be dominated by big donors. That has to run out at some point--the ones giving directly to his campaign, I mean--right?

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:20:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I'm not a math person (0+ / 0-)

        and so I cant quite figure out the math on this. I assume the Romney and RNC totals are separate from the Romney/RNC victory fund numbers and the same goes for Obama/DNC? Or are the RNC/DNC numbers the total they raised including what they got from the victory funds? I'm not sure.

        The strategist who said Romney would raise $100 million was from the Obama campaign. I imagine that is a bit of expectations setting.

        •  It's not so much the math (0+ / 0-)

          as the seemingly growing number of entities affiliated with this process and how they report their figures. Rather than write another story about a rally where some conservative nut job blames Obama for 9/11, his obese stomach, the Challenger disaster, and the end of "Seinfeld," which Romney refuses to denounce, or something similar, perhaps some enterprising reporter could make sense of it all and put up a nice chart for us.

          At least his SuperPac is catching up. I don't think we necessarily need to beat Romney overall, which may well be impossible; I just think we need to narrow the margin to some degree.

          Plus, as I indicated above, I wonder if he's being close to tapped out with his base, which is primarily big donors. If that's the case, what does this mean for his fund raising? It's not as if he will suffer from a lack of money, but if it's coming from the outside, from a few big donors, it isn't limitless, and more importantly, it isn't under his control. Might we be seeing something close to a situation where his personal fund raising goes down further and further, even if outside fund raising to support him grows?

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 08:55:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  AP-GfK: Obama leads 47-44 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

    Per usual, twenty headlines declared it a "tie" before the numbers were anywhere to be found.

    http://hosted.ap.org/...

    Obama +3 = Tie

    Romney +3 = Landslide

  •  FL-16 IN PLAY due to corrupt incumbent (0+ / 0-)

    I'm moving FL-16 from Safe R to Likely R for now, although I believe the allegations against Buchanan have quite a bit of weight, because CNN's Drew Griffin put out this report blowing the lid off of the Buchanan scandal.

    "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 11:10:50 PM PDT

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