This is the second in a series of diaries focusing on taking control of the House from John Boehner ("Bow-ner") and his fellow Tea Party crazies. The series will focus on both our pickup opportunities as well as those where we need to play defense to hold. It will provide you with details on each race, the current polls, some background on our candidate and links to the candidate's site to encourage donations and GOTV efforts.
In Part 1 I listed the first 11 top pickup opportunities for Democrats (BTW: Thank You Rescue Rangers for elevating Part 1 to the Community Spotlight). Here in Part 2 I will list the next 11 potential Dem. pickups needed to reach that magic number of 22 seat flips needed to take back the House. Also, I have re-listed the top 11 with updated polling data (where available) and any interesting campaign developments. So after you clear the jump /\ with me, let's get started!
Part 1 of this series looked at the first 11 House races we need to flip from red to blue.
Part 2 of this series (this Diary) will look at the next 11 House races we need to flip from red to blue in order to get the 22 needed to take control of the House.
Part 3 of this series will look at the races where we need to play defense in order to keep a blue seat blue.
Part 4 and the last of the series, will put all the flips and holds together and evaluate where we stand in terms of taking control and where our efforts should be concentrated (IMHO).
Before we get started with the listing of potential pickup seats, I would like you to seriously consider helping one or some of our fine Democrats seeking election to the House either from the list below or your own favorite. You can donate by visiting a specific candidates web site, or by visiting the Speaker Pelosi Project at this ActBlue page. Also, if you live in or near one of these swing districts, please consider signing up for some GOTV volunterr work.
PART 2: Part 2 contains an updated listing of the first 11 seats from Part 1, and the next 11 potential pickups, for a total of 22 (the Magic Number). The 22 House races listed below are all from Republican held or open seats in which the Dem. candidate is shown to be leading in the polls. All polls in this listing come courtesy of TPM Polltracker, a great place to find an extensive listing of House polls.
I have ranked the 22 seats from most likely to less likely pick up opportunity based primarily on the polling of these races. But my ranking also considers the age of the polls, weighting new polls over older polls. For instance a late September poll should give a better indication of voter intent in November than one taken in late July. Also, to be conservative, my ranking gives consideration to whether the poll is Democrat or Republican sponsored, or whether its been done by an independent polling firm like SUSA. For instance, a Republican or independent poll showing the Dem. candidate in the lead should give a greater degree of insurance that the Dem. is truly out front, than a Dem. sponsored poll. The listing below provides the District match-up; the latest poll(s); a link to the Dem. candidates web site where you can learn more about him/her, donate or sign up for GOTV); and my little write up on the race. Hope you find this useful and hope it prompts you to donate and/or GOTV!
1) IL-08: Duckworth (D) Walsh (R)
Polls: 10/11(I-poll) 45% 48% D -3
10/7 (I-poll) 52% 42% D +10
9/20 (I-poll) 52% 38% D +14
8/14 (I-poll) 50% 41% D +9
D-Link: Tammy Duckworth
My 2 Cents: Not sure what's up with that new independent poll from We-Ask-America, showing Walsh up by 3, but until I see some corroboration by other polls, I'm leaving this race in the #1 pickup spot. Also, If nothing else, Joe Walsh is amusing. Check out Retroactive Genius's Diary on Walsh's lame attack on Tammy's Dress Shopping that was a BIG time bomb with the Debate audience. Please consider giving Tammy's campaign some financial or GOTV support and share in the sweetness of this flip.
2) FL-09: Grayson (D) Long (R)
Polls: 10/3 (R-poll) 45% 42% D +3
9/21 (D-poll) 52% 38% D +14
D-Link: Alan Grayson
My 2 Cents: Although the latest poll only shows our man Alan only up by 3 points, I have left him in the #2 best pickup slot since this is a Republican sponsored poll so I have to take it with a huge grain of salt. Besides he's Alan Grayson, one of my favorites, and I'm sure one of yours too. Please consider giving Alan your support.
3) NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) Guinta (R)
Polls: 10/3 (I-poll) 47% 38% D +9
10/1 (R-poll) 43% 51% D -8
9/25 (I-poll) 48% 47% D +1
8/12 (I-poll) 45% 43% D +2
D-Link: Carol Shea-Porter
My 2 Cents: Moved this race up from #11 to #3 on the heels of some consistently positive independent poll numbers for Shea-Porter. Let's give Carol some love with a contribution and robust GOTV effort.
4) FL-26: Garcia (D) Rivera (R)
Polls: 10/5 (R-poll) 41% 43% D -2
9/13 (I-poll) 50% 41% D +9
9/13 (I-poll) 46% 39% D +7
D-Link: Joe Garcia
My 2 Cents: Still think the 2 independent polls showing Garcia with a lead outside the MOE trump the 1 Republican poll showing him slightly behind. Also, Rivera is being dogged by an FBI probe where Republicans are being accused of entering a phony Dem. candidate Justin Lamar Sternard in the Dem. Primary. As noted in this McJoan Post Rivera doesn't want talk to the press about the matter. Avoiding the press never helps when your knee deep in a scandalized candidacy.
5) FL-18: Murphy (D) West (R)
Polls: 10/3 (R-poll) 41% 53% D -12
9/30 (D-poll) 52% 43% D +9
9/25 (R-poll) 49% 45% D +4
8/24 (D-poll) 47% 46% D +1
D-Link: Patrick Murphy
My 2 Cents: Moved this race into the #5 spot based on some consistently good polls for Murphy, except for the internal poll from the West campaign which doesn't seem to pass the smell test. West of course is another in the top 10 of right wing crazies that we would love to see get tossed out on his a**. Take a look at this post to see the bat-shit crazy stuff he is mailing out to voters. What a Loon!
6) CA-41: Takano (D) Tavaglione (R)
Polls: 8/12 (D-poll) 42% 38% D +4
D-Link: Mark Takano
My 2 Cents: A somewhat large grain of salt with this one. The poll is sponsored by the Takano campaign and its an early August (old ) poll. But on the positive side, if Takano had any lead back in August, chances are that it is bigger now as Dems. are generally polling better in September than they were in August. Mark's a teacher, and proudly touts it in his campaign. So if you're a teacher or you know or like teachers, please give Mark whatever support you can give.
7) CA-26: Brownley (D) Strickland (R)
Polls: 7/19 (D-poll) 48% 44% D +4
D-Link: Julia Brownley
My 2 Cents: An old poll sponsored by the Dem. campaign. But, like CA-41, I've go to believe that any sort of lead back in July is bigger now.
8) AZ-09: Sinema (D) Parker (R)
Polls: 9/10 (I-poll) 45% 41% D +4
D-Link: Kyrsten Sinema
My 2 Cents: I remain concerned about this being a likely pick up opportunity since Arizona is not expected to be an Obama coattail State, but every District is different and this independent poll suggests this can be a flip. Check out this smart ad and please consider giving Kyrsten your support.
9) MI-01: McDowell (D) Benishek (R)
Polls: 10/1 (R-poll) 44% 42% D +2
9/20 (D-poll) 49% 40% D +9
9/19 (I-poll) 44% 42% D +2
D-Link: Gary McDowell
My 2 Cents: Consistently positive polling numbers for McDowell no matter who polls this race. A good sign! Gary's campaign appears to be hammering home his defense of Medicare and his opponents votes to cut it, and it appears to be working based on these polls. Probably a flip for us if we work at it and help McDowell GOTV.
10) MN-08: Nolan (D) Cravaack (R)
Polls: 10/9 (I-poll) 46% 45% D +1
8/27 (D-poll) 47% 44% D +3
D-Link: Rick Nolan
My 2 Cents: The fact that the recent independent poll by SUSA still shows our guy in the lead, continues to make me think we have the edge in this race. Also, for fun (if you can stomach it) here's a Disco ad from Rick's Opponent. I think he looked rather good back in the 70s.
11) IL-13: Gill (D) Harris (R)
Polls: 10/2 (D-poll) 40% 39% D +1
8/7 (D-poll) 36% 30% D +6
D-Link: David Gill
My 2 Cents: This is not just candidate Gill, this is ER Dr. Gill who works in the Health Care trenches and knows a thing or two about what he speaks when it comes to the issue of affordable health care. According to this McJoan Post a Republican SuperPac and the Chamber of Commerce are putting some big bucks up against Dr. Gill, so please consider making a small donation to the Gill campaign so we can pick up this winnable seat.
12) NH-02: Kuster (D) Bass (R)
Polls: 10/3 (I-poll) 42% 41% D +1
9/25 (I-poll) 51% 45% D +6
8/12 (I-poll) 37% 42% D -5
D-Link: Ann McLane Kuster
My 2 Cents: Well, the one new poll we have on this race shows it to be a nail-bitter with Kuster slightly ahead, which seems just about right. We will need a good GOTV effort to flip this one, so if you live in/near NH-02, please go to Ann's web site and sign up.
13) OH-16: Sutton (D) Renacci (R)
Polls: 7/19 (D-poll) 42% 40% D +2
D-Link: Betty Sutton
My 2 Cents: I know another old poll by the Dem. candidate. So I probably shouldn't put a lot of stock in it. Still, as I said above, my gut tells me that a July poll which sows a Dem. in the lead back when there was far less Dem. momentum than there seems to be now, may mean that candidates like Betty Sutton are even further ahead (Shoot me for being optimistic). Besides President Obama has lead consistently in Ohio and his GOTV effort there should help down-ballot candidates.
14) IL-17: Bustos (D) Schilling (R)
Polls: 10/9 (I-poll) 46% 46% D 0
10/5 (D-poll) 45% 44% D +1
9/29 (D-poll) 47% 45% D +2
D-Link: Cheri Bustos
My 2 Cents: We are getting in to the tighter races now. Still we are now up to the 14th of the 22 flip seats we need and we are still seeing Dem. candidates polling in positive territory (albeit slightly in this case). This is definitely another one of those close contest where every little donation and every bit of time spent on GOTV could make the difference. Please see if you can help Cheri flip this seat.
15) CA-52: Peters (D) Bilbray (R)
Polls: 7/18 (D-poll) 40% 40% D 0
D-Link: Scott Peters
My 2 Cents: Took a look at Scott's web site. Turns out he's about my age and rides a bike. I like the guy already (except he looks better in Spandex than I do). However, I sure would like to see some more recent polling on tight races like this one.
16) OH-06: Wilson (D) Johnson (R)
Polls: 10/9 (D-poll) 49% 46% D +6
9/12 (D-poll) 46% 46% D 0
D-Link: Charlie Wilson
My 2 Cents: May rank this race higher next time. Wilson's recent poll suggests he may be in positive territory. Still, as pointed out in this David Nir Post there is reason to take this latest poll with a grain of salt. Romney is up be 2 points in this District, suggesting it might be a little redder Than Wilson's poll seems to indicate which is why I'm not ranking it higher for now. But, its still a good pickup opportunity.
17) FL-02: Lawson (D) Southerland (R)
Polls: 10/5 (I-poll) 47% 46% D +1
D-Link: Al Lawson
My 2 Cents: In the face of Lawson's positive poll number, the DCCC and Dem. SuperPacs are starting to put some dollars into this race as David Nir points out. How about YOU!
18) IL-11: Foster (D) Biggert (R)
Polls: 10/9 (I-poll) 44% 46% D -2
8/29 (D-poll) 42% 43% D -1
D-Link: Bill Foster
My 2 Cents: We're at seat flip #18 and we're entering into negative poll territory where the Dem. is slightly behind. This is where it really gets tough to flip a seat. Tough, but certainly not impossible.
19) TX-23: Gallego (D) Canseco (R)
Polls: 9/30 (R-poll) 37% 47% D -10
9/17 (D-poll) 43% 38% D +5
D-Link: Pete Gallego
My 2 Cents: I know what you're thinking. Flipping a Republican seat in Texas! I must be nuts! But the wide gap between the Dem. and Rep. sponsored polls leads me to believe that this could be a tight race.
20) FL-22: Frankell (D) Hasner (R)
Polls: 10/3 (I-poll) 44% 45% D -1
D-Link: Lois Frankell
My 2 Cents: The poll of this race is tighter then 1 point since I rounded the numbers. Without rounding its almost a dead heat. Visit Lois's site and see if you can give her a little support.
21) AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D) Paton (R)
Polls: 10/8 (R-poll) 45% 50% D -5
7/26 (R-poll) 46% 43% D +3
D-Link: Ann Kirkpatrick
My 2 Cents: Knocked this race down a few pegs from its top 11 ranking due to the more recent Republican poll. However, since this is a Rep. poll, I doubt whether Kirkpatrick is actually down 5 points. Also, the fact that the Republicans have recent ads running against Ann (here) further indicates that they consider this a competitive race. Please consider helping Ann help overcome the Republican's financial advantage in this race.
AND NOW --- DRUM ROLL PLEASE --- The final flip we need to take over the House IMHO!
22) MI-03: Pestka (D) Amash (R)
Polls: 10/9 (I-poll) 44% 48% D -4
8/21 (I-poll) 46% 48% D -2
D-Link: Steve Pestka
My 2 Cents: I hate negative poll numbers.
Well, that's my 22 potential House pickups. You may consider there are others that should be in the list, and if so I would be glad to know about them and here your arguments. However, I limited my picks to polled races. So while there might be races not yet polled where you feel our chances of flipping are good, I'm reluctant to include them without a supporting poll or two. Also, an increasing number of House races are now being polled, some multiple times, so I reserve my right to change this listing as new poll data becomes available.
Please remember that the point of this Diary series is to help focus and encourage support for the Dem. House candidates we need to work for to strive towards our goal of taking majority control of the House. So please consider volunteering for GOTV and/or donating to the Dem. House candidates in this series or others which you feel will help us take back the House. Remember without majority control of the House, we are likely in for at least two more years of the same Republican obstructionist shit.
Stay tuned for Part 3 in this series where I will look at the races where we need to play defense in order to keep a blue seat blue! Hope you will join me again.