Alabama specific discussion vote share and its mathematical impact on delegate allocation. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Alabama is a very well suited to provide a definitive advantage for the candidate who can get extra delegate advantage. Most of the congressional districts have an odd number of available delegates. Thus delegate splits will definitely give one or the other candidate that extra boost.
Basic Data: Alabama has 53 delegates available. There are 7 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations, there are 9 different delegate allocation units. The delegates are unevenly spread. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 3 from CD6; 4 from CD4 CD5; 5 from CD1 , CD2, CD3; 9 from CD7. In addition from state-wide results 7 PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and 11 at-large delegates are allocated.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 1st March 2016. Alabama runs an open primary. This means that voting in primary is available to everyone. Voters may request either Democratic or Republican ballot but not both. The presidential primary coincides with state and local primary.
Double Barrel Primary: Presidential preference primary coincides with local and state primaries. Do not forget your local ballot people. Same goes for the General elections too.
Voter ID Laws: A valid Voter ID is required for voting. Accepted forms of ID are: Valid Driver's License, Valid Non-driver ID, Valid Alabama Photo Voter ID, Valid State Issued ID (Alabama or any other state), Valid Federal Issued ID, Valid US Passport, Valid Employee ID from Federal Government, State of Alabama, County Government, Municipality, Board, Authority, or other entity of this state, Valid student or employee ID from a college or university in the State of Alabama (including postgraduate technical or professional schools), Valid Military ID, Valid Tribal ID
Alabama photo voter ID card is issued free to anyone who does not have one of the accepted Photo IDs. Others will have to pay a fee for it. The voter must bring one of these photo IDs to the polls on Election Day or place a copy of the ID in absentee ballot materials.
A voter who is required to present valid photo identification but who does not do so will be allowed to vote a provisional ballot as provided for by law.
In addition, a voter who does not have a valid photo ID in his or her possession at the polls shall be permitted to vote if the individual is positively identified by two election officials as a voter on the poll list who is eligible to vote and the election officials sign a sworn affidavit so stating. {If you have any official document from government including letters, demands etc etc, or if you have utility bills take them with you so that it helps the election officers decide fast}
More details available at http://www.alabamavotes.gov/ElectionInfo/ElectionInfo2016.aspx?a=voters And here http://www.alabamavotes.gov/FAQ.aspx?m=Voters
So if in doubt turn up and vote.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: The triggers for achieving delegates on congressional districts based allocations are listed below. I have grouped the Congressional districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them.
Delegates Acquired
out of Available
|
del 3
cd6
|
del 4
cd4 cd5
|
del 5
cd1 cd2 cd3
|
del 9
cd7
|
Delegate Allocation Thresholds/Triggers
1 del |
16.7 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
50 |
37.5 |
30 |
16.7 |
3 del
|
83.3 |
62.5 |
50 |
27.8 |
4 del |
|
85 |
70 |
38.9 |
5 del |
|
|
85 |
50 |
6 del |
|
|
|
61.2 |
7 del |
|
|
|
72.3 |
8 del |
|
|
|
83.4 |
9 del |
|
|
|
85 |
For 3 Delegates at CD6: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. Unless the poll numbers are literally hovering around 50% marker, this place is unlikely to see much action. delegates splits 2-1 giving 1 delegate advantage for crossing 50% threshold.
For 4 Delegates at CD4 CD5: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5% to 62.5% will still have delegates split 2-2. To gain a definitive advantage a candidate needs to cross 62.5% trigger resulting in a delegate split of 3-1.
For 5 Delegates at CD1 CD2 CD3: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. These districts becomes very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Both campaigns probably have that 30% support needed for 2 delegates. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour.
For 9 Delegates at CD7: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Since CD7 has a high number of delegates, there are many more trigger points for acquiring extra delegates. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. For a campaign a smaller movement in CD7 could still trigger an extra delegate.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 7 PLEOs and 11 At-Large delegates. The small numbers of delegates available also means that a larger movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
For 7 Pledged PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials): Since these have an odd number of delegates, Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. 6-1 split happens at 78.6. Again this is an unlikely scenario. Question is will Sanders be able to cross the threshold of 64.3% to force a 5-2 split or will he have to be satisfied with 4-3 split. Roughly 14.3% votes translate to 1 delegate. The table below shows the PLEO specific triggers points. The at large delegates listed here are corresponding numbers at PLEO percentages. A separate table further down is just for at-large delegates.
Vote share% |
15% |
21.4% |
35.7% |
50% |
64.3% |
78.6% |
85% |
|
|
Statewide Delegate for Vote Share Table - PLEOs
PLEOs (7 Del) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
Corresponding
At-Large Dels (11) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
|
|
For 11 State-wide (at-large) delegates: (See table below.)
Because of a small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly large.The first two delegates are very cheap to acquire with just 15% votes. Third delegate available at 22.8%. Subsequently roughly 9.1% vote equals 1 delegate. There are many trigger points which award additional delegate. Advantageous break occurs at crossing 50% to obtain (6-5) split. Corresponding PLEO delegates at that level are also listed for comparison.
Vote Share % |
15 |
22.8 |
31.9 |
41 |
50 |
59.1 |
68.2 |
77.5 |
85 |
Delegate Allocation Triggers - AT-Large Delegates
At-Large (del 11) |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
Corresponding
PLEO (Del 7)
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
At 50% both categories award an extra delegate thereby giving 2 delegate advantage.
Next bit is my personal opinion: I suspect every odd delegate break will go on Clinton favour. making mostly 3-2 delegate split. CD1 (3-2): CD2 (3-2): CD3 (3-2): CD4 (3-1): CD5 (3-1): CD6 (2-1): CD7 (6-3): Statewide (7-4) and (4-3). Resulting in total (34-19). Push for higher share of vote % will make a quicker difference in statewide allocation.
Previously covered states: South-Carolina and Virginia and Massachusetts and New-Hampshire and Vermont
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Currently I am running through the list of states. If anyone would like to see the mathematics for a particular state faster let me know and I will queue it up.
Meanwhile for a break I suggest reading our own guavaboy diaries http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/04/1479720/-Take-a-quick-holiday-from-the-Bernie-vs-Hilary-madness-and-try-Nepal-for-truly-arcane-politics