Leading Off:
● Texas, Alabama: Donald Trump is wreaking utter havoc in the Republican Party, but if there's one small bit of solace for the GOP establishment, it's that his presence on the Super Tuesday ballot didn't spell doom for any members of the Senate or House seeking renomination. There was a legitimate, unquantifiable fear that the angry, disaffected voters Trump is so good at drawing to the polls would take out their rage on downballot incumbents in Texas and Alabama, but while several turned in decidedly "meh" performances, nobody lost, despite Trump’s big series of wins at the top of the ticket.
Amusingly enough, Republican clown-in-chief Louie Gohmert (TX-01) appears to have done the best of potentially vulnerable Texas Republicans, easily turning back a foe who had self-funded a bit. Reps. Lamar Smith (TX-21), Pete Session (TX-32), and John Culberson (TX-07) were all hovering in the high 50s/low 60s when we put the Digest to bed but all saw their races called in their favor. Two more, Kevin Brady (TX-08) and Blake Farenthold (TX-27) were under 55 percent, but even they survived.
The picture was similar in Alabama. Longtime Sen. Richard Shelby took his underfunded opponent very seriously—always a wise move in today's unpredictable GOP—and looks to have won a 2-to-1 victory. And in the House, Reps. Bradley Byrne (AL-01) and Martha Roby (AL-02) both appear to have won with vote shares in the 60s. Again, these weren't dominant blowouts, but everyone on this list in both states represents safely Republican districts and will be a lock for re-election in November. And as far as these GOP incumbents are concerned, in this tempestuous Age of the Donald, that's all that matters.
Senate:
● CO-Sen: Oh look, there's another Republican challenging Sen. Michael Bennet! Businessman Jerry Natividad, who served on Mitt Romney's Hispanic leadership team in 2012, entered the race on Tuesday. Natividad says he's considering self-funding, but it's unclear how much he's willing or able to spend. Natividad is a self-described moderate, which isn't exactly a label most Republican politicians willingly bequeath themselves.
Natividad is the thirteenth Republican to join the contest. The good news for anyone keeping track of this race is that not everyone will make it to the June 28 primary. In Colorado, there are two ways to get on the primary ballot. Candidates can collect petitions (they need either 1,050 valid signatures from each of the seven congressional districts, or 10,500 statewide), but that's too expensive and time-consuming for some campaigns. The alternate method is to go through the April 9 state convention: Any contenders who take more than 30 percent of the delegates get on the primary ballot. Candidates also have the option of competing at the convention but petitioning their way onto the ballot if they don't get enough delegates.
However, only a few campaigns seem to be staking it all at the convention. According to the Denver Post, conservative state Sen. Tim Neville should have no problem taking the necessary 30 percent of the delegates, but El Paso County Commissioners Darryl Glenn and Peg Littleton are depending on a good performance at the convention to make it to June. Glenn has been running for a year and has little to show for it, while Littleton only just entered the race. But Neville needs to do well in heavily Evangelical El Paso County in the primary, so it's in his best interest to try and run up the score at the convention and prevent Glenn and Littleton from advancing.
However, a number of other Republican contenders are petitioning their way onto the ballot. Ex-state Rep. Jon Keyser (who is portraying himself as the establishment favorite); rich guys Robert Blaha and Jack Graham; ex-Aurora Councilor Ryan Frazier; and Natividad are all collecting signatures (it's unclear what Jefferson County Commissioner Donald Rosier is doing). Assuming they all get enough valid petitions, we could have a minimum of six notable Republicans running in the June primary for the right to face Bennet. Colorado's candidate filing deadline is in early April, so there's still time for someone else to crash the party.
● FL-Sen: The big difficulty in polling downballot races in a huge state six months before the primary is that, at least as far as open seats are concerned, all the candidates are largely unknown and many voters are undecided. That's what PPP finds in its latest poll of Florida, where Democrats generally lead in the race for Marco Rubio's Senate seat, but plenty of voters have yet to pick sides. However, there are still some notable details.
Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, the establishment favorite, leads the top three Republican contenders: He's up 38-34 on Rep. David Jolly, 41-33 on Rep. Ron DeSantis, and 40-31 on Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. His fellow Democrat, hedge fund manager/Congressman Alan Grayson, doesn't fare as well. He actually trails Jolly 38-35 and has narrower leads on DeSantis (40-34) and Lopez-Cantera (38-35). That's not surprising, since Grayson sports a favorability rating of just 16 percent positive to 31 negative. Murphy, by contrast, is at 16-15.
Despite his relative unpopularity with the general voting public, Grayson actually leads the Democratic primary, 33 to 22. To give you even more of a sense of how ill-defined this race is for most voters, there are more undecideds now than there were in PPP's last poll back in December, when Grayson led 33-27.
But PPP's new poll is also complicated by the fact that it was targeted toward capturing the March 15 presidential primary electorate, and a different set of voters is likely to show up in August. Tom Jensen graciously ran a special crosstab for us, showing that Bernie Sanders voters prefer Grayson by a 41-17 margin; Clinton voters also back Grayson, but by a smaller 33-26 spread. However, Sanders won't be on the ballot when Grayson and Murphy go head-to-head, so Grayson, who just endorsed Sanders, might be getting a boost right now from Bernie voters who simply won't have the same incentive to come out for this summer's congressional primary.
The GOP primary is unsettled as well. Jolly leads the way, with 26 percent to 14 for DeSantis, 11 for Lopez-Cantera, and just 2 for Army vet Todd Wilcox. One reason we can be sure things will change is that wealthy businessman Carlos Beruff, who announced his candidacy while this poll was in the field, wasn't tested. And as flush as Beruff's campaign is likely to be, Jolly's is poor: His fundraising has pretty much fallen to middle school bake sale levels, and he claims he won't even try to raise money himself anymore. Meanwhile, the Club for Growth loves them some DeSantis, and if he has a shot at the nomination, they'll be right there to help him.
● MD-Sen: Donna Edwards has nowhere near as much money as Democratic primary rival Chris Van Hollen, but she does have the well-funded group EMILY's List on her side. EMILY spent $1 million for Edwards last year, and they're returning to the airwaves with a $430,000 buy. Their new spot praises Edwards for standing up to Wall Street and "fighting to keep dark money out of politics." There's no doubt that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November in this dark blue state, and polls show a tight race between Edwards and Van Hollen, with plenty of undecided voters.
House:
● California: Over the weekend, California Democrats gathered at their state convention to endorse candidates up and down the ballot. The party's official seal of approval carries with it one meaningful benefit: Endorsees are listed by name on the sample ballot that gets sent out to all voters, which, for the lucky beneficiaries, is almost like having someone else pay for a mailer to every voter in their district. (These same candidates can, of course, also include information about their endorsement in their own literature and advertisements.)
For the most part, these endorsements unfold with little drama, since incumbents almost always get the party's support. Where they tend to matter most is in open seat races, where building up name recognition is hardest. We'll run down some of the most notable congressional contests below (you can find a full list of endorsements here):
CA-07: Rep. Ami Bera was the only sitting Democrat who was at any real risk of not winning an endorsement, thanks to his support for so-called "fast track" trade promotion authority, which has earned the ire of organized labor. It would have been an unpleasant black eye, but in the end, Bera, who doesn't face any Democratic opposition, still got the nod, after a plea to delegates from Nancy Pelosi. He'll square off against Republican Scott Jones, the sheriff of Sacramento County, in what will be a hotly contested race in November.
CA-17: Democratic Rep. Mike Honda faces a stiff rematch against former Commerce Dept. official Ro Khanna, a fellow Democrat, and a lot of former Honda allies have abandoned him the second time around. Not, however, the state party, which once again gave its blessing to Honda.
CA-20: Open seats typically attract a lot of attention, especially if they're safe districts. But after Rep. Sam Farr announced his retirement, the only Democrat to announce a bid was prosecutor Jimmy Panetta—who just so happens to be the son of ex-Rep. Leon Panetta, the man who represented this seat before Farr. No one seems interested in testing the younger Panetta, and the party awarded him its endorsement.
CA-21: Two Democrats are running to unseat GOP Rep. David Valadao, but Democrats declined to back either Fowler City Councilman Daniel Parra or attorney Emilio Huerta, who is the son of labor leader Dolores Huerta. That's a victory for Huerta: Parra had looked set to win the party's backing, but Huerta's successful maneuvering denied Parra the endorsement. Parra has frustrated national Democrats with his weak fundraising, while Huerta is still untested.
CA-24: Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal has won almost universal support from the Democratic establishment for this open seat. Carbajal sealed the deal with his party's endorsement, even though he faces another Democrat, Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider. This district isn't a lock for Democrats, but Carbajal would be favored in the general election.
CA-25: While DC Democrats have shown some interest in the candidacy of attorney Bryan Caforio, local Democrats have rallied around Agua Dulce Town Councilman Lou Vince, and now state Democrats have done the same. The two are trying to defeat GOP Rep. Steve Knight.
CA-44: State Sen. Isadore Hall has also done a good job locking down establishment backing, and he earned the party's nod as well. Hall, however, still faces a showdown for this dark blue open seat with ex-Hermosa Beach City Councilwoman Nanette Barragan, who has been endorsed by EMILY's List.
CA-46: In a bit of a surprise, Democrats declined to pick sides in this solidly blue open seat. Former state Sen. Lou Correa has won the lion's share of endorsements from public officials, but that evidently wasn't enough to put him over the top. Two other notable Democrats, Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen and former state Sen. Joe Dunn, are also running.
● IL-01: Mike Madigan, the powerful state House speaker and chair of the state Democratic Party, has endorsed Chicago Alderman Howard Brookins' primary campaign against longtime Rep. Bobby Rush. The move isn't a complete surprise: Rush's son originally filed to run for the state House against a Madigan ally, though he's since dropped out. The primary for this safely blue seat is March 15, and it's unclear how much energy Madigan and his allies plan to put into helping Brookins. At the end of the year, neither candidate had much money to spend, so Madigan's support could make a big difference here.
However, Illinois' congressional primary is the same day as the presidential contest, which could give Rush a huge edge. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are likely to turn out legions of voters who don't care much about congressional politics. While Republican congressmen and senators are afraid that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz's supporters will decide to vote them out (though maybe a bit less afraid after Tuesday’s primaries), most Democratic voters aren't nearly as pissed at their party establishment. It's likely that Democrats who are only interested in the presidential race will largely just back the more recognizable names downballot, which should help incumbents like Rush.
● MN-02: On Monday night, ex-state Rep. Pam Myhra, a Republican, dropped out of the race for this open swing seat. Myhra had raised very little money during her time in the race, and she said she made her decision after "reviewing my campaign's month-end fundraising report."
Several Republicans are still in the running. The main contenders look like ex-state Sen. John Howe, who has largely been self-funding his bid, former conservative radio host Jason Lewis, and businesswoman Darlene Miller. Lewis recently earned some ugly headlines after some of his past racist and sexist on-air rants resurfaced, though Republican voters may not be incredibly concerned with that. Retiring Rep. John Kline sounds like he prefers Miller to the rest of the field, though he says he wants to see how well she raises money.
The primary isn't until August, but Minnesota will hold a party endorsement convention first. While winning the party endorsement isn't the same thing as winning the nomination, many candidates will drop out of the race if convention delegates pick someone else. On the Democratic side, hospital executive Angie Craig faces no serious opposition.
● TN-08: On Monday, Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell joined the crowded GOP primary for this safely red West Tennessee seat. About one-third of the district lives in Shelby and about 60 percent watches Memphis TV, so Luttrell should start out with some good name recognition. Republican operatives also previously told Roll Call that they think Luttrell will be able to raise money.
Luttrell joins state Sen. Brian Kelsey; ex-US Attorney David Kustoff; Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood; Shelby County Commissioner Steve Basar; and wealthy perennial candidate George Flinn in the August primary. All the candidates hail from the Shelby County portion of the district, which could entice someone from one of the rural areas to jump in. (Unlike many Southern states, Tennessee has no primary runoff.) The filing deadline is in early April.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.