Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● KS-02: On Friday, the Topeka Capital-Journal published a story in which a woman named Chelsea Scarlett accused Republican Steve Watkins of sexual misconduct 12 years ago.
Campaign Action
Scarlett told the paper that she was in a room alone with Watkins when he "locked the door, put his hands on her and made unwanted sexual advances." She says she didn't report the incident at the time because she feared losing her job as a contractor at Fort Richardson, an Army base in Alaska where Watkins was stationed at the time. However, Scarlett says she decided to speak out now because Watkins, whom she called a "predator," could wind up in Congress, where he would "do things to young girls in those offices because they’re cute and vulnerable."
Watkins campaign responded by calling the allegations part of "another round of second-hand, third-hand and anonymous ‘sources’ pushing Brett Kavanaugh-style destruction politics," and added the charges "are so preposterous they don’t deserve the dignity of a response or publication, but Republicans face this kind of assault from the media every day." Watkins faces a stiff fight against Democrat Paul Davis for this red but competitive open seat.
Senate
● NJ-Sen: The conservative super PAC Integrity NJ has added another $2 million to its buy against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez.
● Polls: Today's Senate polls:
- AZ-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Kyrsten Sinema (D): 47, Martha McSally (R): 44 (Early Oct.: 47-44 Sinema)
- FL-Sen: Siena for the New York Times: Bill Nelson (D-Inc): 48, Rick Scott (R): 44
- FL-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Nelson (D-inc): 46, Scott (R): 46 (June: 46-41 Scott)
- IN-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Mike Braun (R): 46, Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 43
- MI-Sen: Mitchell Communications for MIRS: Debbie Stabenow (D-Inc): 52, John James (R): 46 (Early Oct.: 51-42 Stabenow)
- MO-Sen: Remington Research (R) for Missouri Scout: Josh Hawley (R): 49, Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45 (Mid Oct.: 47-46 Hawley)
- TX-Sen: Quinnipiac: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 51, Beto O'Rourke (D): 46 (mid-Oct.: 54-45 Cruz)
YouGov gives us an infrequent Indiana poll, and it has bad news for Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly as he trails by 46-43. Including this survey, the Daily Kos Elections polling average gives Republican Mike Braun a similar 44-42 lead.
Mitchell's Michigan poll finds Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow up by only a modest 52-46, but that margin beggars belief given that neither party is behaving like this race is remotely competitive.
● Senate: The polling gods giveth and they taketh away: This week's installment of the Daily Kos Elections Senate Forecast finds Montana Democrat Jon Tester moving toward a high-single-digits lead in the polling averages, but also finds a fellow incumbent, Indiana's Joe Donnelly, under water for the first time.
Gubernatorial
● ME-Gov: On Monday, wealthy independent Alan Caron announced that he was dropping out and endorsing Democrat Janet Mills. Caron and his wife had loaned his campaign at least $725,000, but he barely registered in the polls. Caron had promised back in March that he would exit the race in mid-October if he couldn't win, though he said last week that he was still deciding what to do.
The race for governor is now a three-way contest between Mills, Republican Shawn Moody, and independent state Treasurer Terry Hayes, though Caron will still be on the ballot. Mills has led in the very few polls we've seen, but Democrats are worried that Hayes could take enough support from Mills to allow Moody to win with a plurality (Maine's new instant-runoff voting law does not apply to state-level general elections). Unfortunately, Hayes has shown no interest in following Caron out of the race, and she put out a statement Monday appealing to his supporters.
● NH-Gov: The RGA-affiliated group Live Free PAC is launching an ad against Democrat Molly Kelly, making this the first major outside buy of the general election on either side. The group is spending $410,000 to air it on station WMUR, though we don't know the total size of the buy. The Daily Kos Elections polling average gives GOP Gov. Chris Sununu a 50-38 lead, though we've seen a grand total of five polls here.
● RI-Gov: WPRI reports that the political arm of Save the Children is wrapping up a $600,000 TV buy in support of Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo that we did not previously know about.
● Polling:
- AZ-Gov: YouGov for CBS: Doug Ducey (R-inc): 52, David Garcia (D): 41
- FL-Gov: Siena for the New York Times: Andrew Gillum (D): 48, Ron DeSantis (R): 43
- FL-Gov: YouGov for CBS: Gillum (D): 47, DeSantis (R): 46
- MI-Gov: Mitchell Communications for MIRS: Gretchen Whitmer (D): 48, Bill Schuette (R) 43 (early Oct.: 46-38 Whitmer)
- NM-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for Michelle Lujan Grisham: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 53, Steve Pearce (R): 44 (Aug.: 52-44 Lujan Grisham)
Recent polls disagree about whether Michigan's governor's race has gotten closer over the last few weeks or if Whitmer is still far ahead. Last week, an EPIC-MRA poll also gave Whitmer a 5-point lead. However, a Marketing Resource Group survey from around the same time found her up 50-36, while Whitmer's campaign released an internal giving her a 47-36 edge.
House Playing Field
As has been the case day after day over the last week, the House playing field continues to expand—as always, deeper into Republican turf. The latest updates are below.
● FL-15: Holy smokes! The Congressional Leadership Fund's rescue mission in Florida's 15th is looking a lot more desperate than we'd thought. Over the weekend, CLF reported spending an astonishing $1.7 million on ads attacking Democrat Kristen Carlson, far more than the $500,000 it was reported to be spending last week.
This effort to save Republican Ross Spano may have swelled to such a huge size because of the limited availability of advertising inventory: We're extremely close to Election Day, and lots of ad time in Florida has been bought up for the state's highly competitive races for Senate and governor. When you're scrambling to play defense late, this can be an acute problem.
● GA-07: While the major groups on both sides haven't invested in this race yet, Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA just threw down $913,000 on TV ads to boost Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux against GOP Rep. Rob Woodall. (This is the same buy we hit in our House section.) Republican operatives have been fretting that Woodall hasn't taken his race seriously: He hasn't run any advertising and is barely campaigning.
On top of that, the New York Times now says that Democratic polls show gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams "with a solid lead in the area." A recent bipartisan poll found Abrams up just 47-46 in this suburban Atlanta seat, with Woodall ahead 49-43. But if Abrams does in fact have a bigger lead over Republican Brian Kemp, then Bourdeaux might be even closer to Woodall than this poll suggested.
● SC-01: With scarcely more than a week to go before Election Day, the NRCC is making its first foray into South Carolina's 1st Congressional District—albeit a small one, with just a reported $87,000 buy so far. This is a seat Republicans shouldn't have to sweat at all, though: Trump carried it 54-40, and Mitt Romney won it 58-40. But state Rep. Katie Arrington unseated Rep. Mark Sanford in the GOP primary earlier this year, and she hasn't proven to be the most skilled campaigner.
Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Cunningham has outraised Arrington almost two to one over the course of the election. A lone PPP poll taken at the very end of August put Arrington ahead 49-42, suggesting this race could be just at the outer end of competitiveness. At the very least, we can say that Republicans would rather not be playing Whac-a-Mole like this with so many other districts occupying their attention.
● TX-23: Here's yet another example of why triage is not always triage. Earlier this month, the NRCC cancelled its final three-and-a-half weeks' worth of ad reservations in Texas' 23rd District as a series of polls showed GOP Rep. Will Hurd with a sizable and in fact growing lead. But lo and behold, the committee just popped back in with a $554,000 TV ad buy attacking Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, as well as another $45,000 for digital ads.
For the NRCC to spend this kind of money almost certainly means it’s seen some polls that have spooked it. While we haven't gotten any new data since a mid-month Siena poll that had Hurd up 53-38, it's definitely possible this race has tightened, especially if there's been a late surge among Latino voters (62 percent of this district's eligible voting population is Latino). The CLF has continued to spend heavily here, while HMP and the DCCC recently began throwing in some real money, totaling around $600,000.
● WI-06: On Monday morning, some media outlets reported that the NRCC was placing a buy in Wisconsin's 6th, where the House Majority PAC recently went up with the first part of a planned $294,000 buy. However, rather bizarrely, later reporting indicated that the committee's media buyer made a mistake and incorrectly bought time in the district, so apparently no NRCC ads are forthcoming here. However, we'll be watching very carefully to see if this changes.
● Independent Expenditures: Our chart tracking independent expenditures by the "big four" House groups (the DCCC and House Majority PAC for Democrats; the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund for Republicans) has been updated to include new spending over the last week. During that time frame, the two Democratic organizations spent $25.3 million, while the Republicans spent $28.3 million.
That brings total GOP spending to $156 million, versus $117 million for Democrats. However, despite this apparent disparity favoring Republicans, it's Democrats who have the financial advantage. That's because Democratic candidates have widely outraised their Republican counterparts, and since candidates are entitled to much cheaper advertising rates than outside groups, Democrats have been able to air around 60 percent of all TV spots.
And, as we've been chronicling, there's been significant new spending in over half a dozen Republican-held seats over the last week. That list includes California's 21st, Florida's 6th, Florida's 15th, Georgia's 6th, Michigan's 6th, Virginia's 5th, and Wisconsin's 6th. Note that this doesn't include spending by other groups outside of the "big four," but when that's considered, it suggests an even wider field of seats might be in play.
House
● KS-03: This bit of desperation from GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder, who trails Democrat Sharice Davids in the polls and has been abandoned by his party, sums up his plight pretty well:
Yoder also sought to undercut the idea that his opponent is better suited to hold Trump accountable than him, arguing that Davids technically worked for the Trump administration.
Davids worked at the Department of Transportation after being selected as part of the final class of White House fellows under Obama, but Yoder noted that her fellowship continued into the first year of Trump's presidency.
"What is it in her track record that tells us she would actually stand up to President Trump when she worked for him?" Yoder said. "She worked for the agenda. I just think it seems to be a pretty weak promise … when she already had a chance to do it and she didn't."
Yoder has voted with Trump 92 percent of the time. We haven't seen a stunt this gonzo since former Republican Rep. Lee Terry sent out mailers during his 2008 re-election campaign hunting for "Obama-Terry" voters. This is probably the most embarrassing thing Yoder has done with clothes on.
● ME-02: GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin's new ad isn't just really, really, really bad; it's angered the local Central Maine Medical Center, and the hospital is publicly calling for him to take it down for using its name and logo.
The commercial is set at Lewiston's Simones' Hot Dog Stand and features diners unconvincingly praising Poliquin and dissing Democrat Jared Golden. The (Lewiston) Sun Journal says the crowd consists of "a number of prominent Republicans in the Lewiston-Auburn area," though the ad of course doesn't identify them as party figures. That's just as well, because the group clearly isn't there because of its acting skills.
To be fair, there's only so much they can do with lines like "One thing's for certain, Bruce Poliquin's good for jobs," and "Stopping Mainers from buying heating oil? Golden's out there." The ad also takes the time to show lots of shots of restaurant workers preparing hot dogs and hamburgers, perhaps to try to make the spot seem less artificial than it is.
At one point the camera awkwardly zooms to a man wearing a white lab coat that identifies him as Dr. Thomas E. Page of the Central Maine Medical Center. The ad keeps going and doesn't show Page again until near the end, where various people say that Poliquin works for veterans and sportsmen, before Page jumps in and exclaims, "And health care! Regardless of what they say."
The hospital told Poliquin the spot "should be taken down immediately" because it falsely implies it supports his campaign. It said the problem could be fixed if the campaign just edited the ad to remove this offending portion (though the rest of the commercial would still be beyond saving), but Poliquin's team doesn't sound at all likely to take this small step. They told the Sun Journal only that they were "happy you are interested in writing about Dr. Page's endorsement."
● MI-06: Republicans have been running commercials declaring that Democrat Matt Longjohn is "not licensed to practice medicine, but calls himself a doctor," and Longjohn is up with a response spot.
Longjohn's ad begins with footage of him at his medical school graduation in 1999, as well as a shot of his degree from the Tulane University School of Medicine, which the narrator calls proof that GOP Rep. Fred Upton "is lying about Matt Longjohn." The ad then calls out Upton for voting against covering pre-existing conditions, before Longjohn appears and calls for a "new generation in Congress."
● NJ-11: Plenty of candidates are shown driving in their ads, but Democrat Mikie Sherrill flies a helicopter in her new spot.
● House: Billionaire Mike Bloomberg has dropped another $10 million (here and here) on House races for ads in support of Democratic candidates and against Republican candidates via his Independence USA super PAC:
- CA-49: $500,000
- GA-06: $130,000
- GA-07: $900,000
- IL-14: $1.4 million
- KS-03: $600,000
- MI-08: $1.7 million
- NJ-11: $1.9 million
- NV-04: $2.7 million
- TX-07: $1.25 million
- VA-02: $200,000
- VA-10: $130,000
Meanwhile, the progressive group VoteVets has plopped down $560,000 to oppose Republican Mark Harris in his race against Democrat Dan McCready in North Carolina's open 9th District.
● Polls
- CA-25: Siena for the New York Times: Steve Knight (R-inc): 48, Katie Hill (D): 44 (Sept.: 47-45 Knight)
- IA-03: Siena for the New York Times: Cindy Axne (D): 43, David Young (R-inc): 41 (Sept.: 44-43 Axne)
- IL-06: Siena for the New York Times: Sean Casten (D): 46, Peter Roskam (R-inc): 44 (Sept.: 45-44 Roskam)
- MN-02: Global Strategy Group (D) for Giffords PAC: Angie Craig (D): 52, Jason Lewis (R-inc): 41 (Sept.: 49-41 Craig)
- NE-02: DFM Research (D) for SMART Transportation Division's Nebraska State Legislative Board: Don Bacon (R-inc): 52, Kara Eastman (D): 45
- NY-11: Siena for the New York Times: Dan Donovan (R-inc): 44, Max Rose (D): 40
- NY-24: Siena for Spectrum News: John Katko (R-Inc): 53, Dana Balter (D): 39 (Aug.: 54-39 Katko)
- NY-27: Tulchin Research (D) for Nate McMurray: Nate McMurray (D): 47, Chris Collins (R-inc): 43 (early Oct.: 43-43 tie)
- PA-10: Siena for the New York Times: Scott Perry (R-inc): 45, George Scott (D): 43
- UT-04: Siena for the New York Times: Ben McAdams (D): 45, Mia Love (R-inc): 45
- VA-07: Christopher Newport University: Abigail Spanberger (D): 46, Dave Brat (R-inc): 45
While unnamed Republican strategists told the New York Times a few weeks ago that Roskam was in bad shape and "must recover quickly or risk losing funding," Siena's poll indicates that, while Roskam may have lost some ground since early September, this race is still very winnable for Team Red. The NRCC has been running joint ads with Roskam, so it’s still involved here, though it's not clear how much money the committee is putting towards its share of those spots. The only other poll we've seen in October was a Casten internal from the very start of the month that gave the Democrat a 49-44 lead.
The Democratic firm DFM Research once again is polling on behalf of the transportation workers union SMART as part of a survey on rail issues. The Democratic group House Majority PAC redirected its ad reservations here to Iowa's 3rd District a few weeks ago, and no other major Democratic groups have been spending to aid Eastman, so we doubt that Team Blue has better numbers here. The CLF spent about $250,000 here over the last two weeks, so it’s not quite declaring victory, though.
The only other poll we've seen out of New York's 11th, a Staten Island-based seat that swung from 52-47 Obama to 54-44 Trump, was an early-September survey from the Democratic firm PPP that gave Donovan a 47-39 lead. There has been little outside spending in this district, which is located in the extremely expensive New York City media market. Rose has been a very strong fundraiser, though, and he outraised Donovan $2.18 million to $485,000 from July 1 to Oct. 17, so Donovan may be the one who wants the outside help if this Siena poll is on target.
By contrast, Siena still finds Katko well ahead in New York's 24th, even though this race has attracted plenty of outside spending from both sides over the last few weeks. We haven't seen any other polls since Siena's August survey.
Siena is finishing up a survey in New York's 27th for the New York Times, so we'll have another data point here soon. Their mid-October poll for Spectrum News gave Collins, who is under indictment, a 46-43 edge in this red upstate seat.
This is the first independent poll we've seen out of Pennsylvania's 10th, a Harrisburg-area seat that went for Mitt Romney 53-46 and Donald Trump 53-43. The DCCC is advertising here in the final week, while the Trump-inspired super PAC America First Action recently began a $614,000 ad campaign. While Scott, an Army veteran and pastor, won his May primary with little money and outside help, he's also been a very strong fundraiser. Scott outraised Perry $1.27 million to $521,000 from July 1 to Oct. 17.