Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Election Day: At long last, Election Day is here! Daily Kos Elections has been tracking the ins and outs of the 2018 midterms every day all cycle long, and we’re very excited to finally liveblog the results, beginning when the first polls start closing at 6 PM ET tonight. To help you get ready to track the returns—and make sense of them as they come in—we’ve put together a broad array of resources you’ll want to bookmark, print out, and share with your friends:
- Our poll closing times map shows you when each state’s polls close, with a version for every U.S. time zone and a special version to aid the colorblind
- Our hour-by-hour guide to election night summarizes every key race for Senate, House, and governor, including those that will determine control of Congress
- Our guide to key ballot measures will fill you in on all the important initiatives and constitutional amendments that many states will be voting on, on a broad range of topics that include voting rights, redistricting, the environment, health care, the minimum wage, and more
- Our guide to key legislative chambers will walk you through all the state Senates and state Houses that could change hands on election night
- Our final forecast for the Senate, House, and governorships uses the Daily Kos Elections polling averages to project how many seats we think each party might win
- Our final race ratings for Senate, House, and governor show how competitive we think each individual contest is, as well as the final average of all publicly available polls
- Our "county benchmarks" will help you make sense of returns as they come in by showing what percentage of the vote in key counties Democratic candidates for statewide office (and one House race in Kentucky, where polls close early) likely need to hit to win their races
- And finally, our key race tracker will keep you updated on who’s won each of the important races in real time on election night
Also, if you haven’t had the chance to enter our election prediction contest, there’s still time to submit your guesses for a shot at winning that delicious Green's babka. Be sure to follow us on Twitter and again, check back in at Daily Kos Elections at 6 PM ET tonight for our liveblog. See you there!
Election Day
● Benchmarks: A time-honored tradition at Daily Kos Elections, pre-Election Day, is county benchmarks for key races, so advanced election watchers can better assess whether candidates are on track to win during the early stages of reporting and only selected counties have data yet. Of particular interest, we have data for Indiana's Senate race and Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, which you'll have time to watch closely in the first hour before the data really starts flying later.
● Congress (and Governors): With Election Day almost upon us, Daily Kos Elections has put together one final Forecast, combining both chambers of Congress and the nation's governors into one mega-post. We're looking at a gain of at least 30 seats in the House (which is more than the 23 needed for a majority), flipping eight to 10 GOP-held gubernatorial seats, and most likely no net change whatsoever in the Senate.
● Election Night: Skip the Movies, Watch the Sinema: The big night is almost here, and we have a lot of exciting races in store. Democrats are making a strong drive to flip the House and take several governorships, while the GOP is hoping to pad their majority in the Senate. To help follow along, we have an hour-by-hour guide for what to watch Tuesday. The fireworks start at 6 PM ET, when polls close in most of Indiana and Kentucky.
We'll be liveblogging all the action starting at 6 PM ET Tuesday at Daily Kos Elections. We'll also be tweeting the proceedings. We hope to see you here tonight for what will be a historic evening!
● Statehouse Action: On Tuesday, 16 legislative chambers are ripe for a shift in majority control—most of them toward Democrats. You can read all about these chambers, including current partisan composition and why they’re primed to move here. Also, you can check out this cool hexmap:
One measure of partisan power at the state level that’s ripe for drastic shifts on Nov. 6 is trifecta control of state government—that is, when one party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governorship. Currently, just eight states have Democratic trifectas, while 26 are completely controlled by Republicans. Democrats are poised to end GOP trifectas in as many as six states and could pick up four more of their own.
RACE RATINGS Changes
● NJ-Sen (Likely D to Lean D): The polls continue to look good for Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, who hasn't trailed Republican Bob Hugin in any publicly released survey. However, there are far too many signs that Democrats are genuinely worried about Menendez, who remains unpopular almost a year after the Department of Justice dropped corruption charges against him after a jury failed to reach a verdict.
On Thursday, Senate Majority PAC launched a new $1.9 million ad campaign against Hugin, which takes their total investment over the last month to $7.6 million. It's possible that SMP is continuing to spend serious money here simply to ensure that Hugin, who has dumped in $36 million of his own money to boost his campaign, doesn't outspend Menendez by too great a margin. However, that's still a big commitment to make this late in the game when so many other Senate seats are at stake. Multiple media outlets have also reported well into the final week of the campaign that, even with so much going well for Democrats House candidates in the Garden State, state and national Democrats are nervous about Menendez.
We would still be surprised if, for all his flaws, Menendez lost on Tuesday in a state this blue and in a year this bad for the GOP. However, we wouldn't be shocked. Democrats are just spending too much here in the final days for us to feel this is a Likely Democratic race anymore.
● VT-Gov (Safe Republican to Likely Republican): GOP Gov. Phil Scott has been popular in this blue state for most of his first two-year term, and it would be a huge upset if he lost to Democrat Christine Hallquist on Tuesday. Still, we think this contest is worth keeping an eye on. Vermont gave Democrats a nasty surprise during the 2014 GOP wave when incumbent Peter Shumlin, who had looked completely safe, wound up barely fending off unheralded Republican Scott Milne by just a 46-45 margin. Hallquist, who would be the nation's first trans governor, has raised a credible amount of money, and if the political climate causes Scott some problems, she could be in a position to pull off a surprise.
There's also one added consideration here. If no one takes a majority of the vote, the governor will be chosen by the state legislature. This happened in 2010 and 2014, and since there are five third-party or independent candidates on Tuesday's ballot, it could conceivably happen again. There's no question that Democrats will continue to dominate both the state House and Senate after Tuesday, and if Scott only wins a plurality of the vote, things could get interesting.
● AR-02 (Lean R to Likely R): Democrat Clarke Tucker has been running a serious campaign against GOP Rep. French Hill, but things don't look great for him in this 52-42 Trump seat. A mid-October poll from Hendrix College gave Hill a 52-40 lead, and unfortunately, major national groups on both sides have been treating this contest as though they think Hill is well ahead. While the DCCC and House Majority PAC spent almost $600,000 here through Oct. 21, they never returned to the airwaves afterward, and their GOP counterparts never engaged at all.
There has still been some outside spending in the final two weeks, though. The Democratic group Patriot Majority deployed $130,000 on TV while the super PAC America First Action is spending $355,000 for Hill. That's at least an indication that this race isn't quite over, and if things go unexpectedly bad for the GOP even in red seats like this, Tucker could pull off a surprise. Still, the last few weeks underscore just what a tough hill to climb this is for Democrats. (Yes, pun intended.)
● AZ-02 (Lean D to Likely D): While major Democratic and Republican groups spent about $1 million each on ads though mid-October, the contest for this open 50-45 Clinton seat looks a lot less competitive than it once did. An early October Siena poll gave Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick a 50-39 lead over Republican Lea Marquez Peterson, and soon thereafter, both parties stopped paying much attention to this race.
The NRCC canceled all their TV reservations for this Tucson-area seat a little less than a month before Election Day and never returned, while the Congressional Leadership Fund ignored this seat throughout the general election. The DCCC also hasn't spent anything in about a month, while House Majority PAC has been launching only small ad buys for weeks. This area is too competitive to take off the big board altogether, but everything is looking good for Kirkpatrick to return to Congress.
● IL-14 (Lean R to Tossup): GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren faces a very well-funded challenge from Democrat Lauren Underwood, and he no longer looks like the favorite in a contest that has attracted millions in outside spending. The best news for Team Blue is that a fresh Siena poll found Underwood going from a 47-43 deficit in early October to a 49-43 edge. GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner's weakness at the top of the ticket also risks weighing Hultgren down in a suburban Chicago seat that backed Trump just 49-45.
Senate
● MS-Sen-B: We can count appointed Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith among the Republicans who doubt she'll hit the 50 percent mark on Tuesday needed to avoid a Nov. 27 runoff in Mississippi's nonpartisan special election, since Hyde-Smith just placed an ad buy to begin on Wednesday. Polling has consistently shown her heading to a runoff against Democrat Mike Espy—where she'd nevertheless be a solid favorite—thanks to ultra-right GOP challenger Chris McDaniel taking votes from her right flank in this staunchly Republican state.
● TX-Sen: Texas Forever has added another $1 million for TV ads in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio media markets to their previous $1.2 million buy to oppose Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
● Polls: Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.
- AZ-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Martha McSally (R): 48, Kyrsten Sinema (D): 46 (late Oct.: 48-43 McSally)
- AZ-Sen: OH Predictive Insights (R) for ABC15: McSally (R): 49, Sinema (D): 48 (late Oct.: 52-45 McSally)
- AZ-Sen: Trafalgar Group (R): Sinema (D): 50, McSally (R): 47
- CA-Sen: Change Research (D): Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 42, Kevin de leon (D): 32
- CA-Sen: The Research Company: Feinstein (D-inc): 47, de Leon (D): 28
- FL-Sen: Change Research (D) for Reason to Believe PAC: Bill Nelson (D-inc): 50, Rick Scott (R): 48
- FL-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Scott (R): 47, Nelson (D): 45 (late Oct.: 47-46 Scott)
- FL-Sen: Marist for NBC: Nelson (D-inc): 50, Scott (R): 46 (Sept.: 48-45 Nelson)
- FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson (D-inc): 51, Scott (R): 44 (late Oct.: 52-46 Nelson)
- FL-Sen: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Nelson (D-inc): 50, Scott (R): 46 (Nov. 1-2: 49-48 Scott)
- FL-Sen: Targoz Market Research: Scott (R): 49, Nelson (D-inc): 45
- IN-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 43, Mike Braun (R): 42 (late Oct.: 42-42 tie)
- MN-Sen-B: The Research Company: Tina Smith (D-inc): 49, Karin Housley (R): 39
- MN-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV and Hubbard Broadcasting: Smith (D-inc): 48, Housley (R): 40 (Sept.: 48-39 Smith)
- MO-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46, Josh Hawley (R): 46 (late Oct.: 46-44 McCaskill)
- MO-Sen: Marist for NBC: McCaskill (D-inc): 47, Hawley (R): 44 (Aug.: 44-40 McCaskill)
- MO-Sen: Remington Research (R) for Missouri Scout: McCaskill (D-inc): 47, Hawley (R): 47 (late Oct.: 49-45 Hawley)
- MO-Sen: Trafalgar Group (R): Hawley (R): 48, McCaskill (D-inc): 44 (Sept.: 47-44 Hawley)
- MT-Sen: Change Research (D): Matt Rosendale (R): 49, Jon Tester (D-inc): 46
- NJ-Sen: Change Research (D): Bob Menendez (D-inc): 51, Bob Hugin (R): 41
- NJ-Sen: Quinnipiac: Menendez (D-inc): 55, Hugin (R): 40 (mid-Oct.: 51-44 Menendez)
- NV-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Dean Heller (R-inc): 46, Jacky Rosen (D): 45 (late Oct.: 46-43 Rosen)
- NV-Sen: Trafalgar Group (R): Heller (R-inc): 49, Rosen (D): 46
- OH-Sen: Change Research (D): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 53, Jim Renacci (R): 43 (Sept.: 46-42 Brown)
- TN-Sen: Braun Research for Eastern Tennessee State University: Phil Bredesen (D): 44, Marsha Blackburn (R): 44
- TN-Sen: Targoz Market Research: Bredesen (D): 49, Blackburn (R): 49
- TX-Sen: Change Research (D) for Reason to Believe PAC: Beto O'Rourke (D): 49, Ted Cruz (R-inc): 49
Gubernatorial
● GA-Gov: Unbelievable: After running one of the most naked voter suppression campaigns against Democrats by any Republican in years, Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp threw gasoline on the fire Sunday by baselessly accusing the state Democratic Party of hacking into the state's voter database. Election law expert Rick Hasen pulled no punches in condemning Kemp, calling his actions "the most outrageous example of election administration partisanship in the modern era" and befitting of a "banana republic."
Indeed, Kemp has taken a page straight out of the dystopian novel 1984 and tried to turn a vulnerability of his own into a weapon against Democrats. In a damning report that came out on Monday, ProPublica reported that after Kemp's office had been warned about security vulnerabilities on Saturday, they subsequently worked to clandestinely fix some of those security flaws that Kemp had refused to acknowledge even existed in the first place.
Kemp's bogus accusation is made even more absurd by how other major election security failures have marred his own tenure as Georgia's top election administrator, including a breach that exposed sensitive personal information like Social Security numbers for 6 million voters, and he refused Department of Homeland Security aid to secure Georgia elections from foreign hackers. Even after that massive security breach came to light and computer security experts warned of critical flaws in the state's voting systems, Kemp's office allegedly destroyed evidence to successfully stop a lawsuit to force Georgia to replace its old paperless electronic voting machines with something more secure that produced an auditable paper trail.
Polls show Kemp is in for the fight of his life and could end up in a Dec. 4 runoff against Democrat Stacey Abrams, who could become Georgia's first black governor and the first black woman to be governor of any state. Sadly, he's resorting to extreme voter suppression and voter intimidation tactics that are reminiscent of one of the darkest chapters in state history: Jim Crow.
● KS-Gov: The Guardian reports that Republican nominee Kris Kobach "has accepted thousands of dollars" from white supremacists and anti-Semites for over a decade and has been affiliated with groups and prominent extremists expressing racist and anti-Semitic views. This comes as no surprise from Kobach, who is one of America's leading Republican advocates of discriminatory voter suppression measures and harsh anti-immigrant restrictions.
● NH-Gov: The RGA has dropped another $300,000 on its late ad buy to attack Democrat Molly Kelly, taking its total spending to $800,000 in the Granite State.
● Polls: Snack on this gubernatorial polling pile slowly. It needs to last until we get a fresh shipment in 2020.
- FL-Gov: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Andrew Gillum (D): 49, Ron DeSantis (R): 46 (late Oct.: 48-44 Gillum)
- FL-Gov: Marist for NBC: Gillum (D): 50, DeSantis (R): 46 (Sept.: 48-43 Gillum)
- FL-Gov: Quinnipiac: Gillum (D): 50, DeSantis (R): 43 (late Oct.: 52-46 Gillum)
- FL-Gov: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Gillum (D): 50, DeSantis (R): 45 (Nov. 1-2: 48-46 Gillum)
- FL-Gov: Targoz Market Research: DeSantis (R): 48, Gillum (D): 47
- GA-Gov: 20/20 Insight (D) for Southern Majority: Stacey Abrams (D): 50, Brian Kemp (R): 46, Ted Metz (L): 1
- GA-Gov: Trafalgar Group (R): Brian Kemp (R): 52, Stacey Abrams (D): 40
- IA-Gov: Selzer and Company for the Des Moines Register: Fred Hubbell (D): 46, Kim Reynolds (R-inc): 44 (Sept.: 43-41 Hubbell)
- IA-Gov: University of Iowa: Hubbell (D): 44, Reynolds (R-Inc): 40
- IL-Gov: Victory Research (R): J.B. Pritzker (D): 49, Bruce Rauner (R-inc): 33, Sam McCann (C): 8, Kash Jackson (L): 5 (early Oct.: 47-32 Pritzker)
- MI-Gov: Mitchell Research: Gretchen Whitmer (D): 54, Bill Schuette (R): 40 (late Oct.: 48-43 Whitmer)
- MI-Gov: The Research Company: Whitmer (D): 47, Schuette (R): 43
- MI-Gov: Target-Insyght for MIRS: Whitmer (D): 48, Schuette (R): 44 (Sept.: 50-41 Whitmer)
- MN-Gov: The Research Company: Tim Walz (D): 48, Jeff Johnson (R): 42
- NH-Gov: Change Research (D) for the New Hampshire Democratic Party: Chris Sununu (R-inc): 47, Molly Kelly (D): 46
- NH-Gov: University of New Hampshire: Sununu (R-inc): 46, Kelly (D): 46 (mid-Oct.: 50-39 Sununu)
- NM-Gov: Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 53, Steve Pearce (R): 43 (Sept.: 50-43 Lujan Grisham)
- NV-Gov: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Adam Laxalt (R): 45, Steve Sisolak (D): 44 (late Oct.: 46-44 Sisolak)
- NV-Gov: Trafalgar Group (R): Laxalt (R): 47, Sisolak (D): 45
- OH-Gov: Change Research (D): Richard Cordray (D): 48, Mike DeWine (R): 43, Travis Irvine (L): 5 (Sept.: 45-43 DeWine)
- OK-Gov: SoonerPoll: Kevin Stitt (R): 47, Drew Edmondson (D): 44 (Late Oct.: 46-42 Stitt)
- SD-Gov: Change Research (D): Billie Sutton (D): 51, Kristi Noem (R): 45
House
● IA-04: Far-right Republican Rep. Steve King is the target of a last-minute $115,000 ad buy from a new group called American Values PAC, which was created by former GOP megadonor Seth Klarman, a Boston hedge fund manager who publicly switched to backing Democrats this cycle in reaction to the Trumpification of the Republican Party.
● NY-22: Former Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, a relatively moderate Republican who represented a Utica-based House seat from 1983 to 2005, has endorsed Democrat Anthony Brindisi for the successor version of his district against first-term Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney. Combined with his support from former GOP Rep. Richard Hanna, Brindisi now has the backing of the last three decades' worth of Tenney's fellow Republican predecessors in this area.
● OH-01: The Congressional Leadership Fund continues to have no qualms about running plainly racist ads against Democratic candidates of color. Indeed, its latest spot against Democrat Aftab Pureval, who is of Indian and Tibetan descent, uses clips of a crowd of black people either celebrating or protesting in the streets while the narrator denounces "the radical policies of the liberal mob." The commercial then baselessly claims Pureval supports "open borders" before arguing that he'll be worse on taxes compared to GOP Rep. Steve Chabot.
● Independent Expenditures: Our final update to our chart summarizing independent expenditures for the "Big Four" House groups—the DCCC and House Majority PAC for the Democrats; the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund for the Republicans—is now available. There were no real surprises, but by looking at the section of the chart that shows spending from the last week, you can see where the parties felt the need to devote attention late in the game. (Bear in mind, though, that ad reservations made ahead of time can be pre-paid, so the lack of new spending reports in a given district doesn't mean that these groups were uninvolved there during the final days.)
In all, these organizations spent at least six figures on 77 different House districts. That includes 56 where they spent $1 million or more, half a dozen of which have seen over $10 million in spending. The most expensive race has taken place in Washington's open 8th District, with $12.8 million in total, followed very closely by Florida's 26th, where a similar sum has been spent.
Combined, the two Democratic groups spent $143 million, while the Republicans spent $183 million. However, that apparent gap does not tell the whole story. For one, many other organizations have spent heavily on House races. For another, it doesn't include spending by the campaigns themselves—and on this front, Democratic candidates have crushed their Republican counterparts. And because federal law gives campaigns—but not outside groups—favorable advertising rates, Democrats have been able to win the air war.
All that said, money is, of course, just one component of elections—a necessary one, but by no means sufficient. If it were sufficient, then wealthy self-funders would win all the time, but they don't. Candidate quality, campaign organizing, voter contact, and grassroots enthusiasm are just some of the many factors that determine election outcomes. Following the money race helps us get a sense of the playing field, but even the most deep-pocketed organizations are far from infallible, which is why we track so many other details from the campaign trail day in and day out. On Tuesday, we get to find out which ones truly matter.
● Polls: The only poll that matters is on Election Day. Here are 25 other polls, though.
- AZ-01: Optimus (R) for Decision Desk HQ: Tom O'Halleran (D-inc): 48, Wendy Rogers (R): 45
- CA-45: Siena for the New York Times: Katie Porter (D): 48, Mimi Walters (R-inc): 46 (Sept.: 48-43 Porter)
- CA-48: Siena for the New York Times: Harley Rouda (D): 46, Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc): 45 (Sept.: 45-45 tie)
- CO-03: JMC Analytics (R) and Bold Blue Campaigns (D): Scott Tipton (R-inc): 46, Diane Mitsch Bush (D): 41
- GA-06: Change Research (D) for Health Care Voter: Lucy McBath (D): 51, Karen Handel (R-inc): 45
- GA-06: Siena for the New York Times: McBath (D): 46, Handel (R-inc): 44
- IA-04: Siena for the New York Times: Steve King (R-inc): 47, J.D. Scholten (D): 42
- IL-14: Siena for the New York Times: Lauren Underwood (D): 49, Randy Hultgren (R-inc): 43 (early Oct.; 47-43 Hultgren)
- KY-06: Siena for the New York Times: Amy McGrath (D): 44, Andy Barr (R-inc): 44 (Sept.: 47-46 Barr)
- MI-06: Change Research (D) for Health Care Voter: Matt Longjohn (D): 42, Fred Upton (R-inc): 40 (late Oct.: 46-43 Upton)
- MI-08: Change Research (D) for Health Care Voter: Elissa Slotkin (D): 47, Mike Bishop (R-inc): 46
- MI-08: Siena for the New York Times: Slotkin (D): 49, Bishop (R-inc): 42 (early Oct.: 47-44 Bishop)
- MT-AL: Change Research (D): Greg Gianforte (R-inc): 52, Kathleen Williams (D): 44
- NC-13: Change Research (D) for Health Care Voter: Kathy Manning (D): 43, Ted Budd (R-inc): 43
- NH-01: University of New Hampshire: Chris Pappas (D): 53, Eddie Edwards (R): 40 (mid-Oct.: 46-37 Pappas)
- NM-02: Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal: Yvette Herrell (R): 46, Xochitl Torres Small (D): 45 (Sept.: 48-41 Herrell)
- NY-19: Siena for the New York Times: Antonio Delgado (D): 43, John Faso (R-inc): 42 (mid-Oct.: 44-43 Faso)
- NY-22: Siena for New York Times: Claudia Tenney (R-inc): 46, Anthony Brindisi (D): 45 (mid-Oct.: 46-45 Brindisi)
- OH-01: Change Research (D) for Health Care Voter: Steve Chabot (R-inc): 47, Aftab Pureval (D): 44
- OH-07: Optimus (R) for DDHQ: Bob Gibbs (R-inc): 55, Ken Harbaugh (D): 36
- TX-32: Siena for the New York Times: Colin Allred (D): 46, Pete Sessions (R-inc): 42 (Sept.: 48-47 Sessions)
- VA-02: Change Research (D) for Health Care Voter: Elaine Luria (D): 47, Scott Taylor (R-inc): 47 (Sept.: 46-46 tie)
- VA-07: Siena for the New York Times: Dave Brat (R-inc): 46, Abigail Spanberger (D): 44 (Sept.: 47-43 Brat)
- WA-08: Siena for the New York Times: Kim Schrier (D): 48, Dino Rossi (R): 45 (Sept.: 46-45 Schrier)
- WI-06: JMC Analytics (R) and Bold Blue Campaigns (D): Glenn Grothman (R-inc): 61, Dan Kohl (D): 33