The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AL-Sen: On Monday, multiple unnamed GOP sources told Politico that former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was indeed considering running to regain the Alabama Senate seat he held for 20 years until he left to become Donald Trump's favorite administration chew toy. Sessions hasn't publicly said he's considering running (perhaps he's lost in the woods), though he didn't rule out a comeback bid in May. The candidate filing deadline is Nov. 8, so Sessions will need to make up his mind fast.
Campaign Action
While Sessions hasn't said anything publicly, the anti-tax Club for Growth said that they hoped he'd run against Democratic incumbent Doug Jones. The Club may not have much company on the Sessions bandwagon, though. A GOP source tells CNN that Sessions hasn't discussed this race with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, but that McConnell thinks "Republicans are very well positioned to retake the seat" with their current field.
More importantly, Trump himself still seems furious with Sessions. Back in July, Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby said that, while he wanted his old colleague to run, he'd "talked to the president about it to … about if Sessions ran," but "he was not encouraging." Shelby continued, "How do I say it? He was not on board, OK?"
We're not sure what Donald Trump said behind closed doors to Shelby, but it probably wasn't much worse than what he's been saying in public for years. In June, for instance, Trump declared that the "biggest mistake" of his tenure was making Sessions his attorney general.
Several of Sessions' would-be primary opponents also don't seem inclined to get out of his way. Former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville put out a statement on Tuesday saying, "Jeff Sessions had a chance to stand and defend the President and he failed," while Rep. Bradley Byrne said he'd stay in no matter who runs. Roy Moore, who lost this seat to Jones in the 2017 special election, also said that a Sessions bid "wouldn't affect one way or another what I do."
However, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill did leave open the possibility that he'd defer to Sessions. Merrill refused to say what he'd do if the former senator ran, but added, "I can tell you I have always been a fan of Sen. Sessions and always been a strong supporter." However, Merrill also said that, while Sessions would immediately be the frontrunner, "If the president were to come out publicly against Sen. Sessions … I think it would be very difficult for Sen. Sessions to overcome that."
For now, at least, we still have a Sessions-free March GOP primary. The GOP firm Cygnal is out with a mid-October survey, and they give Tuberville the lead with 32% of the vote. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff, though, and Byrne leads Moore 18-11 for the other spot in a second round. Merrill is close behind with 9% while state Rep. Arnold Mooney, who began advertising on TV after this poll was finished, and former televangelist Stanley Adair take 2% and 1%, respectively.
Senate
● KS-Sen: On Tuesday, Gov. Laura Kelly endorsed state Sen. Barbara Bollier in the August Democratic primary. Bollier, a former moderate Republican who switched parties at the end of 2018, picked up the support of former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius soon after entering the race earlier this month. The only other notable Democrat in the contest is Manhattan Mayor Pro Tem Usha Reddi, but she had just $54,000 in the bank at the end of September.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: On behalf of Nexstar Communications, the GOP firm JMC Analytics is out with their first poll since this month's all-party primary ended, and they give Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards a narrow 50-47 lead over Republican Eddie Rispone in the Nov. 16 runoff. JMC's last poll, which was taken just before the first round, found Edwards ahead 48-39 in what was at the time a hypothetical runoff with Rispone.
The only other poll we've seen since the Oct. 12 all-party primary concluded was a survey from the conservative firm We Ask America that showed a 47-47 tie.
House
● CA-25: Democratic state Sen. Henry Stern confirmed to Politico that he was thinking about running in the upcoming special election for this competitive seat. Stern, though, added that he was currently evacuating from the fires that have been devastating California and "[i]t's hard to think about a political campaign when you're worried about your house burning down." Stern's state Senate seat makes up just over a quarter of the 25th Congressional District.
On the GOP side, Navy veteran Mike Garcia also told Politico that he'd keep running here even if former Rep. Steve Knight, who lost this seat to Democrat Katie Hill last year, also got in. Garcia was challenging Hill before she announced her resignation on Sunday, and he ended September with $322,000 in the bank.
● IL-15: If you're still feeling utterly shocked and adrift two months after GOP Rep. John Shimkus' retirement announcement, we may have some relief for you. On Tuesday, Shimkus told reporters he was considering seeking a 13th term after all in his safely red seat. Illinois' candidate filing deadline is in early December, so Shimkus won't have long to make up his mind.
Shimkus noted that, now that Oregon Rep. Greg Walden is leaving the House, the top GOP spot is open on the Energy and Commerce Committee. Shimkus is one of the most senior members of the committee, though he still lost the chairmanship to the more junior Walden in 2016.
One person we're pretty sure wouldn't be excited to see Shimkus stick around, though, is Donald Trump. Two weeks ago, Shimkus denounced the administration's decision to suddenly withdraw troops from Syria as "terrible and despicable." He added that he'd told his staff "to take my name off the 'I support Donald Trump' list." However, even though he may now be the sole member of Trump's "I hate John Shimkus" list, Shimkus could be tough to beat in a March primary especially in a crowded field.
For now, though, we still have an open seat for Shimkus' district. Kerry Wolff, who is the vice president of the Altamont School Board as well as an Illinois Association of School Boards delegate, announced this week that he would join the GOP primary.
● IN-05: On Tuesday, EMILY's List endorsed former state Rep. Christina Hale's campaign for this GOP-held open seat in the Indianapolis suburbs.
Hale currently is the only credible candidate competing in the May Democratic primary, and that looks unlikely to change. While Marion County prosecutor Andrew Jacobs, who is the son and namesake of a former Democratic congressman, announced he was forming an exploratory committee at the end of July, he brought in a mere $4,000 over the following two months. Hale, by contrast, raised $320,000 during her opening quarter and ended September with $253,000 in the bank.
Hale also outraised all the GOP candidates running to succeed retiring Rep. Susan Brooks in this ancestrally red seat. Indeed, only one declared candidate raised six-figures, and just barely: State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell opened a fundraising account just before Labor Day but only took in $103,000 during the next month, and she had $97,000 in the bank. Two more Republicans, former commissioner of the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vehicles Kent Abernathy and physician Chuck Dietzen, announced after the quarter ended.
This seat has been safely red turf for a long time, but Team Blue has an opening here. The district moved from 58-41 Romney to 53-41 Trump, and last year, former Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly narrowly prevailed here 48.4-47.9 even though he lost 51-45 statewide.
● MA-03, MA-04: Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who is one of the most high-profile freshman Democrats, made endorsements in two of the Bay State's House primaries on Tuesday.
Over in the 3rd District, which includes the Lowell area and the Merrimack Valley north of Boston, Pressley threw her support behind fellow first-term Rep. Lori Trahan. Trahan faces a potential primary rematch next September against Dan Koh, whom she beat by 145 votes in 2018. Trahan raised $382,000 during the last quarter and ended September with a $918,000 war chest, but Koh was a very strong fundraiser during their last campaign.
Meanwhile in the open 4th District, a seat that borders Pressley's constituency, the congresswoman endorsed former Alliance for Business Leadership head Jesse Mermell. Mermell is one of a number of Democrats competing to succeed Senate candidate Joe Kennedy III in this reliably blue seat, which stretches from the Boston suburbs of Brookline and Newton south to the Attleboro area.
The 4th District primary is also already looking like it will be quite expensive. City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate twice in the last decade, only announced he was in during the final week of September but he quickly raised $367,000 and ended the month with $353,000 in the bank. Newton City Councilor Becky Walker Grossman entered the race at about the same time and brought in $150,000 and had $146,000 on-hand.
Former Wall Street regulator Ihssane Leckey, who was running a longshot bid against Kennedy, raised just $8,000 for the quarter but self-funded $105,000, which left her with an $81,000 war chest. Mermell, Newton City Councilor Jake Auchincloss, and Dave Cavell, who worked as a senior adviser to Attorney General Maura Healey, each entered the race after the new fundraising quarter began.
● MD-07: The special Democratic primary for this safely blue Baltimore seat has been set for February, and potential candidates only have a few weeks to decide if they'll run ahead of the Nov. 20 filing deadline. The only announced candidate so far is pulmonologist Mark Gosnell, but a number of other Democrats are now expressing interest in running to succeed the late Rep. Elijah Cummings.
On Tuesday, state Sen. Jill Carter announced that she was forming an exploratory committee. Carter has represented part of Baltimore in the legislature since 2003, and earlier this year she set in motion a chain of events that led to Catherine Pugh's resignation as the city's mayor.
Things began when Carter filed a bill to prohibit business deals between the University of Maryland Medical System (UMMS) and its board members, and the Baltimore Sun then began looking into board members' financial disclosures to see what agreements had already taken place. The paper then discovered a $500,000 deal between UMMS and board member Pugh for her crummy self-published children's book series. Things escalated from there, and Pugh stepped down as mayor weeks later.
Del. Jay Jalisi said he'd decide on a bid in the next week or two, but he looks like a very bad option. Jalisi received a rare and unanimous formal reprimand from his colleagues in March after an ethics report revealed that he'd engaged in an "ongoing pattern of bullying and abusive workplace behavior" towards his staff over the last five years.
State Sen. Cory McCray also said he's giving a congressional bid "serious consideration," while Del. Vanessa Atterbeary reiterated her interest. Fellow Del. Charles Sydnor also didn't rule out the idea of running to succeed Cummings, saying instead that he looked forward to being part of the conversation "about who could assume the great privilege of taking up his work." Howard County Executive Calvin Ball also didn't quite say no, but said he wasn't giving a potential campaign "serious consideration."
The big name that everyone is still waiting to hear from, though, is state Democratic Party chair Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, who is also the congressman's widow. Party operatives have said that if she runs, many other potential candidates would likely defer to Rockeymoore Cummings.
● NC-12: No one knows what North Carolina's 2020 congressional map will look like following the Monday ruling by a bipartisan panel of state judges blocking the state from using the current GOP gerrymander, but Democratic Rep. Alma Adams is making her plans clear. Adams says she'll run in the seat that includes Charlotte even if the new map creates a blue seat in her old base in the Greensboro area.
Adams was a state representative from Greensboro, which is located about 90 miles to the northeast of Charlotte, in 2014 when she ran for a previous version of the 12th District. That snake-like seat was drawn up to include as many black voters as possible in both cities as well as other communities in order to make the neighboring seats more conservative, and Adams won her primary against several Charlotte-based candidates.
That map was thrown out the following cycle, though, and a new 12th District was drawn that was based entirely in the Charlotte area while heavily Democratic Greensboro was split between two GOP-leaning seats. Adams announced that she would move to Charlotte and run for the new 12th District, and she won another crowded primary against several local current and former state legislators by a 43-29 margin. Adams had no trouble winning renomination the following cycle.
● OR-02: Longtime GOP Rep. Greg Walden announced Monday that he’d retire from this safely red eastern Oregon seat, and it didn’t take long for other Republicans to express interest in running to succeed him.
The most prominent potential candidate is 2018 gubernatorial nominee Knute Buehler, who expressed interest on Tuesday. Buehler, who served as a state representative, ran a well-funded campaign against Democratic Gov. Kate Brown last year, but he lost 50-44. Buehler identifies himself as pro-choice, and during his last campaign he pledged, “Regardless of what happens at the federal level, Oregon will remain a pro-choice state.” That platform may have helped Buehler statewide in a tough year for his party, but it could be a big liability in a GOP primary next year.
Former state Sen. Jason Atkinson also said he was considering after Walden’s retirement announcement. Atkinson is the son of Perry Atkinson, who lost the 1998 open seat primary to Walden. The younger Atkinson ran for governor in 2006 and took third in the primary with 22% of the vote, and he retired from the legislature six years later. Atkinson later became a founding member of a high-profile group trying to bring a Major League Baseball team to Portland, though he left it last year.
State Sen. Herman Baertschiger told the Mail Tribune that, while his current answer to whether he’d run was “no,” he wasn’t completely ruling out the idea. Baertschiger also name-dropped a few other Republicans as possible candidates including former state Rep. Jason Conger, who took second in the 2014 Senate primary; former state House Minority Leader Mike McLane, who resigned this year to accept a state circuit court judgeship from Brown; and state Sen. Tim Knopp. Knopp, though, doesn’t sound very interested, and he told the Source Weekly he planned to seek re-election next year.
● PA-17: This week, days after Donald Trump giddily predicted he’d run, Army veteran and author Sean Parnell filed with the FEC for a potential bid against Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb.
Other Races
● Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney: George Gascón, who resigned weeks ago as San Francisco district attorney, announced Monday that he would challenge incumbent Jackie Lacey in the March nonpartisan primary.
While Gascón only recently moved back to Los Angeles County, he grew up in L.A. and went on to become an assistant chief of police in the city. Gascón made his way to San Francisco a decade ago, where he first served as chief of police for two years until he was appointed district attorney in 2011. In his campaign kickoff, Gascón pointed to his record reducing incarceration rates 350 miles to the north, and he argued that L.A. needs a "safer, more humane, more effective and far less expensive criminal justice system."
Lacey's 2012 win made her the first woman and the first African American to serve as district attorney for America's largest county, but she's antagonized many criminal justice reformers, including Black Lives Matter activists, by opposing measures to reduce California's prison population. Her detractors have also pointed out that Los Angeles County sends people to prison at four times the rate as San Francisco.
Lacey has responded to critics by pointing to her own tough upbringing where she witnessed "gang violence, poverty, and difficult relations between the police and community." And while Lacey has largely emphasized her tough-on-crime image during her career, she's recently focused on diverting more mentally ill people from local jails. Lacey begins the contest with the support of much of the local establishment, including Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and four of the county's five members of its powerful Board of Supervisors.
Two other candidates, prosecutors Joseph Iniguez and Richard Ceballos, are already running, and either would be the county's first gay district attorney. Iniguez, Ceballos, and Gascón would also be the first Latino to serve as L.A.'s top prosecutor. All the candidates will run in a nonpartisan primary in March, on the same day as California's presidential primary. If no one takes a majority of the vote, the top-two vote-getters would compete in a November general election.
● Onondaga County, NY Executive: Democrats haven't won a single countywide office in Onondaga County, which is home to Syracuse, since the 1980s, but Team Blue could break that losing streak next week in a big way. Republican County Executive Ryan McMahon faces a challenge from businessman Tony Malavenda, a Democrat who has self-funded $800,000 for his campaign for an office that his party has never won. McMahon has raised $700,000 for his re-election bid, while Malavenda has taken in $60,000 from donors.
McMahon is arguing that the county's economy is making serious gains under his leadership, and he's portrayed himself as someone who can work well across party lines. Malavenda, though, says that the GOP's long rule has prevented Syracuse from making the same type of recovery as other cities that were hit hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs. Malavenda has also attacked what he calls the "pay-to-play, gerrymandering and crony-ism" in county politics, saying, "I came out of the sewer business and I feel like I went down a level."
Onondaga County moved from 60-39 Obama to 54-40 Clinton, though Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo carried it by a smaller 49-42 spread in 2018. Last year Democrat Dana Balter narrowly won the county 51-49 while she was losing the race for New York's 24th Congressional District to Republican Rep. John Katko by a 53-47 spread.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: Former Virginia Gov. Gerald Baliles, a Democrat who served from 1986 until 1990, died Tuesday at the age of 79. Baliles got his start in elected office representing Hampton Roads in the state House for three terms, and he was narrowly elected attorney general in 1981 by beating Republican Wyatt Durrette 51-49.
Virginia governors cannot run for a second consecutive term, and Baliles entered the 1985 race to succeed Democrat Chuck Robb and once again drew Durrette as his opponent. Baliles, who benefited from Robb’s popularity, may also have received a turnout boost from ticketmate Douglas Wilder, who was campaigning to be the state’s first black lieutenant governor. Baliles beat Durrette 55-45, and Wilder and attorney general nominee Mary Sue Terry also won in a statewide Democratic sweep.
Baliles was a moderate whose style was often called “boldly cautious,” but he had some notable accomplishments during his four-year tenure. Baliles appointed Elizabeth Lacy as the first woman to serve on the state Supreme Court, and he also pulled off a surprising victory when he convinced the legislature to raise taxes to fund road construction. Baliles also increased teachers’ salaries and focused on cleaning up the Chesapeake Bay.
However, state budget issues held other parts of Baliles' agenda back, and he left office with a huge deficit. During the final year of his governorship a violent coal strike began in southwest Virginia, and Baliles was advised to stay away to avoid inflaming tensions. Baliles was succeeded by Wilder, whose 1989 win made him the first African American to be elected governor of any state.