The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● LA-Gov: A super PAC run by Republican state Attorney General Jeff Landry called Make Louisiana Great Again is spending a reported $373,000 to air ads attacking Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards over criminal justice reforms he signed into law in 2017, but at least one TV station has already taken down the ad and the Edwards campaign says two more were doing so.
Campaign Action
The exploitative new spot claims Edwards "let thousands of criminals out of jail early" and "put every life in danger," but Edwards' camp responded with new statistics from the FBI showing that violent crime dropped in the state over the last year. What's more, the legislation in question was passed by bipartisan majorities in Louisiana's GOP-run legislature, and when Republican Eddie Rispone ran similar ads last month, several conservative groups that supported the reforms lambasted him for doing so. One of those organizations went after Landry's ad, too, saying it presented a "false narrative."
Edwards's team specifically objected to the wording in the ad, which claims, "twenty five percent" of prisoners released under the new law "have already committed more crimes; crimes against children, violent assaults, five murders." However, said the Edwards campaign, at most two such former convicts have been accused of murder, noting that the super PAC provided no support for its claim that five released prisoners had actually committed murder. It's because of this misleading language that stations stopped airing the ad.
Rispone himself is also trying to portray Edwards as weak on crime in a new 15-second spot, while he rags on Edwards more broadly for Louisiana's general woes in a 30-second ad he narrates. Very strangely, he uses the exact same bizarre construction to slam Edwards that fellow Republican Ralph Abraham, whom Rispone bested in the primary earlier this month, relied on in an ad from September.
"If LSU was last," Rispone argues, "we'd fire the provost, the athletic director, the coach, even the poor waterboy." It's a particularly weird hypothetical because at the time the ad was released, LSU's football team sported a 8-0 record and was ranked second in the entire country. Edwards is probably delighted at the comparison.
The RGA, meanwhile, is going with some straight-up scaremongering in its latest ad, featuring clips of Donald Trump ranting about what he claims is Edwards' record on immigration (since it's Trump, we're just going to assume it's all b.s.). Finally, Edwards is firing back with an ad featuring a woman thanking Edwards for expanding Medicaid and attacking Rispone for wanting to roll it back.
Senate
● ME-Sen: State House Speaker Sara Gideon is out with a second TV spot well ahead of the June Democratic primary. Gideon pledges not to take any PAC money "because it will always be clear who I'm working for in the U.S. Senate: The people of Maine."
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov, MS-Gov: Targoz Market Research, a group we first saw at the end of 2018, is out with surveys of the gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi that they say were not paid for by any candidate or political organization. In Kentucky they find Democrat Andy Beshear leading GOP Gov. Matt Bevin by a giant 55-36 margin, while Mississippi Republican Tate Reeves edges Democrat Jim Hood 47-46.
We have very little polling from either state. The only other survey we've seen out of Kentucky in months was a mid-October independent poll from Mason-Dixon that showed a 46-46 tie, which is very different from what Targoz finds. However, while we don't have any other fresh data, absolutely no one is acting like Beshear is ahead by anything resembling a 20-point margin.
Targoz's Mississippi poll does fit better with the numbers we have. This past week Mason-Dixon showed Reeves up 46-43, while Hood's campaign released a survey from Hickman Analytics showing the Democrat up 46-42.
Targoz released polls in the final days of the 2018 cycle in Florida and Tennessee and while one of those surveys was close to the final results, the other was far off the mark. In Florida, they found Republicans Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis leading 49-45 and 48-47 for Senate and governor, respectively. Scott prevailed 50.05-49.5, while DeSantis won 49.6-49.2.
However, Targoz didn't do well at all in Tennessee. In the Senate race they showed a 49-49 tie between Democrat Phil Bredesen and Republican Marsha Blackburn, while they gave GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Lee a 53-44 edge over Democrat Karl Dean. The final results were a 54-44 win for Blackburn and a 60-39 victory for Lee.
● MS-Gov: Democrat Jim Hood is out with a TV spot hitting Republican Tate Reeves for making use of a state limo and plane as well as using taxpayer money on a "junket to a rock concert and Mardi Gras." The narrator continues, "Reeves even had a state trooper guard him on a Louisiana fishing boat―at taxpayers' expense. Like someone is going to come out of the Gulf and get him."
Hood appears and tells the audience, "I bait my own hook. Carry my own gun. And drive my own truck." The Democrat continues, "Our state troopers shouldn't have to be out hauling politicians on vacation. They should be protecting you."
House
● CA-25: On Sunday night, freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Hill announced that she would resign from her competitive House seat. Hill’s decision came days after she denied allegations that she violated House rules by having a relationship with a legislative aide, though she acknowledged that she had had a relationship with a member of her campaign staff—not her congressional staff—"during the final tumultuous years of my abusive marriage." Hill has not yet announced the date that her resignation will take effect.
This seat, which includes northern Los Angeles County, swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-44 Clinton. Last year, Hill unseated GOP Rep. Steve Knight 54-46.
● CO-03: State Senate President Leroy Garcia acknowledged back in June that he was having "conversations" about challenging GOP Rep. Scott Tipton, and he once again didn't rule out seeking the Democratic nod this past week.
On Thursday, Garcia held what Denver Post reporter Alex Burness called a "victory-lap presser" after the campaign to recall him died a humiliating death. (Garcia's detractors needed 13,502 valid signatures to make the ballot; they turned in 4.) Burness asked Garcia at the event if he'd ruled out a congressional run and the senator responded by joking that only Burness ever asks him about this topic. However, Burness tweeted "whenever I ask he deflects to talk about Senate work. Have still never gotten a yes/no answer on it." Burness added, "There are many who want to see him run."
Colorado's 3rd District, which includes the western part of the state, backed Trump 52-40, and Tipton defeated former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush 52-44 last cycle. Mitsch Bush is running again, and she currently faces state Rep. Donald Valdez and businessman James Iacino in the primary. Mitsch Bush outraised Valdez $146,000 to $25,000 during the last quarter and ended September with a $184,000 to $10,000 cash-on-hand lead, while Iacino entered the race after the start of the new fundraising quarter. For his part, Tipton hauled in $160,000 and had $413,000 in the bank.
● FL-19: GOP state Rep. Spencer Roach has announced that he won't run for this open seat.
● HI-02: At the stroke of midnight Eastern Time on Friday, Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard announced she would not seek re-election to the House next year but said she'd forge ahead with her longshot presidential campaign.
State law would have permitted Gabbard to run for both posts simultaneously, but just a week after she launched her bid for the White House, she earned a challenge from state Sen. Kai Kahele, who made the most of the fact that Gabbard was neglecting her home state while spending all her time in Iowa and New Hampshire. Kahele, a combat pilot with the Hawaii Air National Guard who flew dozens of missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, had already raised half a million dollars from progressives fed up with Gabbard's loathing for the Democratic Party and would have presented a tough obstacle in next August's primary.
Gabbard's career in public office began in 2002 with her election to the state House. There, in just a single term, she made a name for herself as an anti-gay rights activist. At one particularly notable hearing in 2004, Gabbard declared, "To try to act as if there is a difference between 'civil unions' and same-sex marriage is dishonest, cowardly, and extremely disrespectful to the people of Hawaii. As Democrats we should be representing the views of the people, not a small number of homosexual extremists." (Gabbard's father had led the successful drive to ban same-sex marriage in the state in 1998, an effort he enlisted his whole family in, including Tulsi, then aged 17.)
Gabbard soon left the legislature after enlisting in the Hawaii Army National Guard and served as a medic in Iraq. After a second deployment, this time in Kuwait, Gabbard returned home and won a seat on the Honolulu City Council in 2010. The following election cycle, after Rep. Mazie Hirono announced she'd seek the Senate seat left open by Dan Akaka's retirement, Gabbard ran to succeed her, whereupon she tried to "clean up" her ugly record on gay rights and reproductive rights.
Not only had Gabbard opposed marriage equality, she admitted she had also opposed abortion rights—a confession she made after a surprising endorsement by EMILY's List cast a harsh spotlight on her views. Even then, though, her evolution was minimal at best: She came out in favor only of civil unions, not full marriage rights, and in a 2016 interview, she told the online magazine OZY that her "personal views" opposing abortion and gay marriage "haven't changed."
Nonetheless, she ran up a convincing 55-34 win in the primary over Mufi Hannemann, who had been mayor of Honolulu and also had a lousy record as a progressive. Gabbard then easily won the general election in the solidly blue 2nd District, which takes in Hawaii's more rural "Neighbor Islands"—so called because they're the "neighbors" of Oahu, which is home to Honolulu, the state's capital and by far its largest city. (Part of Oahu is also in the 2nd.)
For years after, Gabbard never drew a serious opponent, though she did her best to court one. During her time in Congress, Gabbard grew notorious for regularly siding against her own party in high-profile ways that made her a darling in conservative media.
Among other things, Gabbard cozied up to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad on a secret trip to Syria in 2017; cultivated violent Hindu nationalists in India; was one of the first (and only) Democrats to meet with Donald Trump after he won in 2016; refused to sign a letter from 169 House Democrats denouncing Trump for appointing white nationalist Steve Bannon to a White House job; carried water for Republican megadonor and casino magnate Sheldon Adelson by introducing his bill to outlaw online gambling; refused to sign on to an assault weapons ban in 2015; attacked Barack Obama for refusing to use the phrase "radical Islamic terrorism"; and voted to make it all but impossible for Syrian refugees to settle in the U.S.
Gabbard also gained a reputation for putting self-promotion ahead of her job. In one egregious incident in 2014, she skipped a congressional field hearing in Honolulu to address the crisis at the Veterans Administration (despite being a veteran herself) in order to shoot a surfing video with Yahoo News. After ignoring reporters' queries for four days, Gabbard claimed she missed the hearing because "an earlier commitment ran very late." Only months later, after the surfing feature was published, did she finally tell the truth.
That absenteeism was a cornerstone of Kahele's argument against Gabbard, but now he'll face a very different sort of race. Other Democrats are sure to join, though the filing deadline isn't until June, so it may take a while for the field to take shape in this newly open seat. But whatever unfolds, Kahele will begin with a head start: Since kicking off his campaign, he's been able to build up a $371,000 war chest, and he's also earned goodwill for being the one guy willing to take on Gabbard.
Anyone else entering the competition now will necessarily look as though they were waiting for an easier fight, though that may or may not prove a hindrance with voters. Kahele, though, has demonstrated he's no pushover, and in a statement following Gabbard's announcement, he affirmed that he "remain[s] fully committed" to the race.
● NY-11: Republican Joe Caldarera recently told the National Journal that he had resigned from his job as a prosecutor in Brooklyn and hoped to launch a bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose next month if he finds the "political and financial backing." Caldarera may be looking long and hard, though, because House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and other members of the House GOP leadership are supporting Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis.
This seat, which includes all of Staten Island and a portion of Brooklyn, backed Trump 54-44, and it will likely be a major GOP target. Rose, though, stands out as one of the strongest fundraisers in a freshman Democratic class full of them. Rose hauled in $735,000 during the fourth quarter, and he ended September with $1.67 million in the bank. Malliotakis took in a much smaller $206,000 during this time, though she still had a notable $600,000 war chest.
So far, Malliotakis faces no serious opposition in the June primary. (No, this guy is not serious.) Disgraced former Rep. Mike Grimm has been talking about running again for a while, but while he said in mid-September that he'd decide by the end of that month, Sept. 30 came and went without any word from him. The following day, Grimm announced that he'd serve as campaign chairman for a candidate running for Malliotakis' Assembly seat, but he had no comment when he was asked about his plans for the congressional race.
● OH-12: On Wednesday businesswoman Alaina Shearer, who owns a local marketing firm, became the first candidate to enter the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Troy Balderson. This seat, which includes the northern Columbus area, backed Trump 53-42, but it hosted two close races last year. Balderson defeated Democrat Danny O'Connor just 50-49 in their August special election, and he prevailed in their November rematch by a 51-47 spread. O'Connor announced in August that he won't run again.
● PA-17: Donald Trump used his Wednesday event at the Marcellus Shale Insight conference in Pittsburgh to trash Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb and to promote a potential GOP opponent. Trump, who unsuccessfully campaigned against Lamb in last year's special election for the old 18th District, told the crowd, "There's a guy named Sean Parnell who's a fantastic military man, brilliant, got everything going."
As Trump looked out at the state’s Republican congressman in the audience he continued, "And I heard, fellows, maybe my genius congressman can tell me. I hear that Sean, Sean Parnell, is going to run against Conor Lamb." This is the first we've heard that Parnell (not to be confused with the former Alaska GOP governor with the same name) might run, and he has not yet said anything publicly.
Parnell served with the Army in Afghanistan and went on to become an author. It also won't surprise you to learn that Parnell, like many of Trump's favorite candidates, is also a frequent Fox News guest.
Mayoral
● Indianapolis, IN Mayor: On behalf of Indy Politics, the GOP firm Mason Strategies is out with a survey giving Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett a 57-23 lead over GOP state Sen. Jim Merritt in the Nov. 5 race. In August, Mason gave Hogsett a similar 55-27 edge. We haven't seen any other polls here.
Other Races
● Dutchess County, NY Executive: Plenty of Republicans are hoping to recruit Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado in New York's 19th Congressional District, but Molinaro has more immediate worries. Molinaro is up for re-election on Nov. 5 against former New York State Bridge Authority Executive Director Joseph Ruggiero, a Democrat who lost the 2007 contest for this post by a narrow 51.7-48.3 margin.
Ruggiero has pointed to Molinaro's 2018 run against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his potential 2020 congressional bid to argue that the incumbent is "tired" of this job and "hasn't kept the eye on the ball, which is county government." For his part, Molinaro is arguing that Cuomo's team is behind Ruggiero's campaign in order to punish the Republican for his gubernatorial bid. Ruggiero responded, "I can turn around and say, 'Cuomo got me to run? Well, that's not true. Maybe Trump has been calling Molinaro.'"
Dutchess County, which is located in the Hudson Valley, used to be reliably Republican turf (local resident Franklin Roosevelt famously didn't carry it in any of his four presidential campaigns), but it's more competitive these days. The county moved from 53-45 Obama to 47.5-47.2 Clinton, and Molinaro carried it 52-45 last year during his unsuccessful run against Cuomo as Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand was winning here 57-43.
● Erie County, NY Executive: Republicans lost control of the top job in Erie County, which is home to Buffalo and some of its suburbs, in 2011 when Democrat Mark Poloncarz unseated County Executive Chris Collins. Collins resigned from Congress last month and currently faces up to 10 years in prison on charges related to insider trading at the same time that his party is hoping to deny Poloncarz a third term.
Poloncarz faces a challenge on Nov. 5 from County Legislator Lynne Dixon, a member of the Independence Party who is also running on the GOP line. (New York's electoral fusion law allows candidates to claim nominations from multiple parties.) Erie County backed Hillary Clinton 51-44, and Dixon is promoting herself as an "independent" voice even though she's reliably voted with her Republican colleagues on important issues and backed Donald Trump in 2016. Poloncarz has responded by tying Dixon to the disgraced Collins and described his own message as "strong fiscal leadership while also approving of progressive values."
Dixon and her allies are hoping that a law recently passed by the Democratic state legislature that allows undocumented immigrants to apply for drivers' licenses will lead to a local voter backlash against Democrats next month. Poloncarz says he supports a lawsuit against the legislation brought by the county clerk but believes it was done with good intentions.
● Suffolk County, NY Executive: Democratic incumbent Steve Bellone is seeking a third and final term on Nov. 5 as executive of Suffolk County, a large Long Island county that swung from 51-47 Obama to 51-45 Trump. Bellone's opponent is Republican John Kennedy, who won re-election as county comptroller last year in a tight 50.4-49.6 contest. Bellone entered the race with a massive financial edge over Kennedy, and he maintained a $1.6 million to $235,000 cash-on-hand lead at the end of September.
The two candidates have sparred over the state of the county economy. Kennedy has focused on how ratings agencies have downgraded Suffolk County's bonds because of heavy borrowing, while Bellone has blamed the problem on the deficit he inherited when he took office nearly eight years ago. Bellone has also argued that things have very much improved since he took over and also said that Kennedy helped create the budget crisis when he was on the county legislature.
