The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● LA-Gov: Candidate filing closed Thursday for Louisiana's Oct. 12 all-party primary, and there were no last-minute surprises. Nine candidates filed, but there are only three notable contenders: Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards and two Republicans, Rep. Ralph Abraham and wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone. All the candidates will face off on one ballot, and if no one takes a majority of the vote, the top two finishers would compete in a Nov. 16 runoff.
Campaign Action
Many Republicans have griped about their choices for months, and more than a few have wished for another candidate. In February, Scott Wilfong, the chair of the state party's rules committee, voiced some of that frustration out loud, saying he'd "been getting a lot of chatter about, 'Is this the field?'" Even Donald Trump attempted to recruit someone else: In May, he reportedly tried to convince U.S. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise to come home and run against Edwards, but Scalise turned him down. On Thursday, the GOP lost its last chance to land an alternative to Abraham or Rispone.
Back in February, LAPolitics summed up the knocks against both declared Republicans, writing that "Abraham has the personality but not the money to win" while Rispone's detractors say he "has the money but not the personality to shake trees and move rooms."
We don't know whether Rispone has convinced his detractors that he has the "personality" to win, but what is clear is that Abraham has continued to struggle with fundraising against Rispone, who has dumped about $10 million of his own money into his campaign. In early July, Rispone held a massive $9.8 million to $1.3 million cash-on-hand advantage over the congressman. Edwards, meanwhile, had $9.6 million to spend.
There haven't been many polls here, but they've consistently shown Abraham advancing to a runoff with Edwards while Rispone has taken a distant third place. However, all those surveys were taken before Rispone launched his big opening ad buy, so we'll need to wait for more numbers to see if his commercials have helped him gain ground. Abraham's campaign will begin airing their first spots on Tuesday.
For all their faults, though, either Republican very much has a shot against Edwards, who is the only Bayou State Democrat who has won a statewide race in the last decade. However, Edwards has generally been popular during his tenure, and Morning Consult gave him a positive 47-33 score for the second quarter of 2019. Last year, the governor also reached a widely hailed budget deal with the GOP-run legislature to put Louisiana's perennially shaky finances on stable footing for the first time in many years.
National Republicans are unsurprisingly hoping to use that accomplishment against him, though. The RGA has already begun airing ads hitting Edwards for raising taxes, without mentioning any other details. There are only three gubernatorial races this year, so we expect the RGA to pump far more money into this race over the next few months. Edwards, for his part, has been running his own spots reminding voters just how much things have improved here since he took over from his unpopular GOP predecessor, Bobby Jindal.
The few polls we've seen have all found Edwards below the majority he'd need to win the election outright on Oct. 12. Surveys have generally found the incumbent ahead of Abraham in a hypothetical runoff scenario, though Abraham has released polls finding a tie. Edwards has consistently polled better against Rispone, but the wealthy Republican may have room to grow now that he's getting his name out. Daily Kos Elections currently rates this contest as a Tossup.
Senate
● KY-Sen: Sports radio host Matt Jones has been considering whether to join the Democratic primary for a while, and he recently said he'll decide whether to launch a campaign in the "next few weeks."
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: After Democrat Andy Beshear recently started running a TV ad referencing how his grandfather and great-grandfather were Baptist preachers and the importance of their faith, Republican Gov. Matt Bevin responded by attacking Beshear for being insufficiently Christian. Bevin claimed the TV ad was "insulting to the Baptist tradition" and was "sort of covering" for Beshear's pro-choice stance.
A possible subtext of Bevin's attack may be a dog whistle to remind voters that Beshear belongs to a Disciples of Christ church, a Mainline Protestant denomination, rather than an evangelical Baptist church, unlike Bevin and the plurality of Kentuckians. In response to Bevin's attack, Beshear's minister Leigh Bond called Beshear a "person of strong faith" and noted that he serves as a deacon.
● MO-Gov: Democratic state Auditor Nicole Galloway has filed paperwork to run for governor in 2020, but she stopped short of a formal announcement on Thursday. Galloway, who is the sole Democrat left holding a statewide office in Missouri, has appeared to be a likely candidate for some time. Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Mike Parson is reportedly expected to announce next month that he's running for a full term next year.
● ND-Gov: Republican Gov. Doug Burgum released a poll from the firm 1892, finding him up by a wide 62-33 over former Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in a hypothetical matchup. In response, Heitkamp ruled out a 2020 campaign, stating "I'm not going to be running for governor." Burgum himself has yet to declare that he's running again, but a spokesperson reiterated that the governor is "leaning" toward seeking a second term in this heavily Republican state.
House
● CA-50: Former San Diego City Councilor Carl DeMaio kicked off his campaign earlier this month, and the Republican has already released an internal poll from the Tarrance Group testing him in possible top-two primary matchups next year that do or don't include incumbent Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter or former 49th District GOP Rep. Darrell Issa. The first configuration has DeMaio advancing to a general election against 2018 Democratic nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar; although DeMaio trails Campa-Najjar 37-34 in the primary, lower-profile Republicans take another 15%, suggesting DeMaio would be favored in the general election.
The poll matchup that includes Hunter sees the congressman eliminated in the primary with Campa-Najjar leading DeMaio 36-24 while Hunter is narrowly in third with 21%; lesser-known Republicans also combined for 7% in that matchup. Finally, the poll tested Issa in place of Hunter, and that matchup finds Campa-Najjar leading DeMaio 37-28 while Issa trails with 20% and other Republicans combined for 4%.
So far, Hunter has shown little sign of dropping his re-election campaign despite being indicted last year over illegal misuse of campaign funds, and Issa has yet to declare whether he's running or not. However, DeMaio releasing this poll seems to be a likely attempt to scare either or both potential rivals out of running.
● NC-09: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund recently went up with their first TV ad attacking Democrat Dan McCready ahead of next month's special election, and we now have the size of the buy at $595,000.
● NY-27: Republican firm Tel Opinion Research has released a new poll of the 2020 Republican primary, which the firm said was not conducted on behalf of any particular candidate. Despite being under indictment for insider trading, the poll finds Republican Rep. Chris Collins maintains a 60% favorable rating among GOP primary voters. A matchup against the Republicans who have already joined the primary against him finds Collins with a 46-26 lead over state Sen. Chris Jacobs as attorney Beth Parlato takes just 4%.
The pollster also tested a matchup without Collins but including several potential candidates who haven't joined the race yet, and they found Army veteran David Bellavia pulling into a 33-24 lead over Jacobs. Further behind, Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw takes 6%, Assemblyman Stephen Hawley and state Sen. Robert Ortt each earn 5%, and Parlato notches just 2%.
● TX-11: Republican state Rep. Brooks Landgraf has previously said he was considering a bid to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Mike Conaway, and he now says he'll decide "within weeks." So far, the only other Republican in the race for this dark-red district is Midland City Councilman J.Ross Lacy.