I know many of us discount the daily tracking polls at the same time we are glued to the next round of results.  I thought it was pretty stupid when the media was pointing to the lack of movement during Obama's travels abroad before any time had elapsed where people could digest how the trip was going. Well if you ask me this bounce we see developing has some legs.

Both Rasmussen and Gallup show a measurable bounce for Obama in the afterglow of his triumphant international tour, capped off by his speech at the Victory Column in front of a massive German crowd.

What remains to be seen, however, is if this presages a larger trend.

Barack Obama is having a great trip in the middle east and seems to be getting no bounce. In the rasmussen tracking poll he is flat, dead even with leaners. Yesterday he was up 6 in the gallup and lost 3 points today and is only getting 45% of the voters polled, and gallup polls cell phones.
Is it possible he is going to get blowback from people for going oversees and acting like the statesman we expect him to be or is McCain actually getting somewhere with his lame attacks.
I was very hopeful when I saw yesterdays Gallup poll that he would take off and put McCain out of his misery.Anyway I realize this is a  short diary but i`m interested in what other people think of this problem.

Rasmussen has a new poll of Virginia showing a tie between Obama and McCain, with McCain leading by one point with leaners included, 48-47%. As previous polls have indicated, the presidential election in this state is a deadlock. New registers and highly increased levels of AA turnout could well prove the difference.

More below.

Sorry to be a one-note Willie, but as my doppelganger Professor Pollkatz has been saying for five years now, Bush's approval goes down and up as the price of gasoline goes up and down.

The reason I mention this once again is that an awful lot of bloggers and commenters have a smug certainty that Bush is down for the count; he'll be President 28% forever, and he'll hold McCain down with him.  I don't think so.

The proof, as they say, is in the pudding.  Here's the pudding:

pollkatz.com
(find "Bush Approval and Gasoline Prices," lower right of your screen)

For all the talk about liberals and liberal Democrats souring on Obama over FISA and other "movements to the center" over the last month, a Gallup poll today shows that liberal support for Obama is as high as ever.

I remember Chuck Todd mentioned a couple weeks ago that you can tell how Obama is going to do in the Gallup poll based on the day of the week.

So I started to look for the pattern. And lo and behold it is clear as day.

Bad news for those who have been reveling in the one poll that shows McCain and Obama tied: the regular fluctuations have shot Obama back up to a 4 point lead outside the MOE. Please understand that you will have to cease your "WHY CAN'T OBAMA WIN" talking point until the next time the two candidates are tied. According to this graph:

you can expect normal trolling conditions to resume by mid-July.

This is interesting. The last 30 years we've seen a huge redistribution of wealth from the middle class and working class into the hands of the wealthy and big corporations. Despite this, $4 a gallon gas, foreclosures,
and stagnant wages a recent Gallup poll shows few Americans (13%) favor redistribution to fix the economy.

http://www.gallup.com/...

DemFromCT's Abbreviated Pundit Roundup got me thinking.  Specifically, this one:

The Swamp: Gallup says most voters think Obama will win, giving network execs (who love tied races) heartburn

Of course, the media thinks America loves a horserace.  But they also love a good old-fashioned ass-whooping.  Especially a history-making one, like Tiger Woods' crushing 12-stroke victory at Augusta in April, 1997.

Washington Post Headline, April 14, 1997:

Tiger Woods Masters The Course of History; Augusta's Champion Is Youngest at 21, and First of Color

Published by Gallup on 6/12/08:

Republicans have grown more critical of the state of moral values in the United States, with the percentage rating present moral conditions "poor" rising from 36% in 2006 to 51% in 2007, and remaining at that level today.

How I interpret this:

The republican party believes they themselves are not to blame for creating a culture of people who despise the republican party. John McCain is not going to win the election because there are too many people in America that have "poor" morals.

I know this is nothing new, however, I can't help but feel obliged to object whenever morality is carelessly punted into political discussions, whether done directly or indirectly.

Yeah we've heard enough about race-baiting to last a life-time but I am just not going to stand for it whether it be from Bill Clinton per his SC outrages or from some ridiculous media outlet from whom other media outlets incidentally parrot their 'news.'

Yesterday, the AP gave voice to racists or Republicans claiming to be racists for no apparent reason except to stir shit up.  My proof that it isn't a legitimate issue is the following Gallup poll which shows that race is a  non-issue for most voters.

That very small amount of people that claim race IS an issue can be explained away, at least partially, as politics; that poll shows that race as an issue in and of itself is a bullshit 'issue'... the AP 'might' want to rethink such crap journalism.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has a 48% to 41% lead in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential election trial heat, based on June 7-9 polling.

http://www.gallup.com/...

Hillary Clinton is strongly disliked by Independents and Republicans as VP in a new poll.

One of the most discussed subjects, the past few weeks has been "will Hillary be good for Obama as Vice President"?

Because of Clinton's strong performance in Appalachia, many pushing for Clinton have forgotten, her extremely high negatives with Independents and Republican's. That's exactly what the Associated Press and Yahoo found in their lastest poll (amongst others) below:

The intense dislike for Clinton suggests that besides support from women and others she could bring to the ticket, she might make it harder for Obama to win over some independents, a pivotal swing group in the November election against Republican John McCain. It also means she might push some Republicans and conservatives to vote against the Democrats — or donate money to the GOP — who might otherwise lack motivation to do so because of tepid feelings toward McCain.

Here's the poll via Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

This is the result of a Gallup survey published today:

Large majorities of Democrats and independents, and even half of Republicans, believe the president of the United States should meet with the leaders of countries that are considered enemies of the United States. Overall, 67% of Americans say this kind of diplomacy is a good idea.

Among Democrats 79% think it's a good idea to meet with leaders of foreign countries considered as enemies of the US (with 19% thinking it's a bad idea). 70% of Independents believe it's a good idea and so do 48% of Republicans.

The poll was conducted May 19-21, so this is four to six days after Bush criticized the policy at the Israel's Knesset and McCain attacked Obama on the issue. This prompted a strong response from Obama as well as Clinton and other Democrats.

As we had into the GE, the latest Gallup panel survey shows Democrats have it over Republicans in confidence about their party and candidate's chances of taking the White House.

A new Gallup poll indicates that Senator Obama is now competitive among women, whites, and the less educated.

Support among Democratic voters for Sen. Obama has increased from a four-percentage-points lead in early May to a sixteen percentage-point lead, his highest percentage-point lead thus far.

In the period including May 1st -13th Senator Obama led Senator Clinton 49% to 45% in the Democratic Presidential Nomination Preference among Democratic voters and voters leaning Democratic.

In the period including May 16th –May 18th Senator Obama outpaced Senator Clinton by a margin of 55% to 39%.

Votes are realizing what the Clinton campaign won't admit: Obama will be the party's nominee and will face John McCain in November. While Clinton is still arguing the numbers, the voters and superdeleages are looking to November and the task of taking on the Bush policies being parroted by McCain.

Full story and link below the fold...