Where should we expect the unemployment rate to be in October 2012?

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Tuesday June 07, 2011 · 7:33 PM PDT

2011/06/07 · 19:33

Its generally assumed that if in October 2012, the unemployment rate is above 9%, Obama is toast. But if it is under 8%, he will very likely win. If its anywhere between 8% and 9%, the election will be in doubt.

Well, lets try to figure out where the unemployment rate will be based on past recoveries.

PaulMunison

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Friday June 03, 2011 · 6:11 PM PDT

2011/06/03 · 18:11

A much overlooked predictor of Presidential elections is Consumer Confidence in the summer of the election year. This shows how people actually feel about the economy. Sometimes what people feel and what is actually happening is much different.

For instance, in 1992, the economy was growing at a solid 4.2% clip, but because Consumer Confidence was so low, Bush ended up losing reelection.

The lowest level of Consumer Confidence a President has gotten reelected during was 99. Right now, Consumer Confidence is around 60.

PaulMunison

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Wednesday June 01, 2011 · 7:20 PM PDT

2011/06/01 · 19:20

Everytime we elect a Democratic President, the Democratic party falls apart two years later. It happened with Clinton and it happened with Obama. Just like in 1995, Republicans have strapped strings on Obama and are dictating the agenda. Once Republicans took over Congress, I felt we were better off under Republican Presidents.

PaulMunison

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Friday May 27, 2011 · 2:08 PM PDT

2011/05/27 · 14:08

When Barack Obama came into the White House, Democrats controlled 59% of US House seats and 59% of Senate seats. At the state level, Democrats controlled 29 governorships and 56% of all state legislative seats.

Now Democrats hold just 45% of US House seats and 53% of Senate seats. At the state level, Democrats hold just 20 governorships and just 45% of state legislative seats, the lowest since the Great Depression.

PaulMunison

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Thursday May 26, 2011 · 2:16 PM PDT

2011/05/26 · 14:16

The next Special Election that we can win is for Nevada's Second Congressional District, which was left open by Dean Heller, who was appointed to John Ensign's Senate seat. The district has a PVI of R+5(meaning it votes five points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Barack Obama only lost the district by about 40 votes in 2008. The election will be held on September 13th.

Democrats have a very good candidate in State Treasurer Kate Marshall

PaulMunison

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Saturday May 21, 2011 · 8:13 PM PDT

2011/05/21 · 20:13

A while back, I mapped out how Democrats could win back the House. I went through the districts that Republicans picked up from Democrats in 2010 and found ones that I thought we could win back. I now feel that I was way too conservative.

Now that it looks like Democrats could very well win an R+6(six points more Republican than the nation as a whole) district on Tuesday, I feel that Democrats should target every Republican in a district that is R+6 or less. Leave nothing on the table.

PaulMunison

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Thursday May 19, 2011 · 3:22 PM PDT

2011/05/19 · 15:22

One of my recent diaries talked about Hank Paulson's idiotic decision not to put up the pocket change needed to rescue Lehman Brothers and sell it to Barclays in 2008.

My question now is why didnt Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner do anything to stop Paulson from making that decision.

Lehman was a company bigger than Bear Stearns and had debts and obligations worth nearly 10% of GDP. How could these three people not have seen that having a company default on debts this big would destroy the economy?

PaulMunison

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Wednesday May 18, 2011 · 6:09 PM PDT

2011/05/18 · 18:09

The Obama justice department has a chance to make sure that minority voters get more representation in the South. There are three Deep South states where African American voters are underrepresnted when compared to the percentage of African Americans in the state. The three states are Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina. In each state, African Americans make up about a third of the state's population, yet they only get about 15% of the seats.

PaulMunison

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Tuesday May 17, 2011 · 2:38 PM PDT

2011/05/17 · 14:38

In 2010, Democrats lost control of 20 state legislative chambers. That is the worst beating either party has taken in decades. Its time to figure out which chambers we can win back in 2012.

PaulMunison

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Sunday May 15, 2011 · 11:04 AM PDT

2011/05/15 · 11:04

Right now it is looking like President Obama will win reelection in a landslide. This means that he will be free to help Democrats regain control of the House and keep the Senate.

A lonely landslide is when a President is reelected in a landslide, but his party picks up few or no seats in Congress. This happened in 1956, 1972, 1984, and 1996.

PaulMunison

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Saturday May 14, 2011 · 12:54 PM PDT

2011/05/14 · 12:54

I will say it right now. If Obama is reelected, Democrats will hold the Senate, losing at most two seats(ND and NE). The reason is that if Obama is strong enough to win, he will be competitive in states like Montana, Missouri, and will likely win Virginia and Florida, pushing Democratic incumbents over the finish line.

PaulMunison

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Friday May 13, 2011 · 10:01 AM PDT

2011/05/13 · 10:01

Hank Paulson's decision in September 2008 not to rescue Lehman Brothers was an act of economic terrorism, as bad as Bin Laden's attack on the US on September 11th, 2001.

With this act of economic terrorism, Paulson wiped out the savings of millions of Americans who lost billions in the stock market crash that ensued and cost millions of Americans their jobs as employers panicked and starting laying people off.

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Where should we expect the unemployment rate to be in October 2012?

Consumer confidence is a good predictor of Presidential elections

Why Democratic Presidents are useless with Republican Congresses

The decline of the Democratic party under Barack Obama

Lets win NV-02 next

Districts Democrats should target in 2012

Where were Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner on Lehman?

The Obama justice department should push for more minority districts

State legislatures Democrats can win back in 2012

Obama needs to avoid a lonely landslide in 2012

Why Democrats will hold the Senate if Obama is reelected

Why did Hank Paulson let Lehman Brothers fail?