The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CA-50: On Thursday, exactly one year after Donald Trump nominated Darrell Issa to serve as director of the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, the once—and perhaps future—California congressman finally arrived at the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee for his confirmation hearings. However, things did not go as planned.
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New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, who is the committee's top Democrat, began the day by calling for the hearings to be delayed, saying that information in Issa's FBI background check was "problematic" and "potentially disqualifying." Menendez didn't reveal what those bogeys are, but Republican Sen. Jim Risch, the committee's leader, agreed to postpone the hearings until the Trump administration gives Issa's file to the full panel (only the chair and ranking member have seen it). Earlier this year, both Risch and Menendez asked the White House to release the FBI's complete report on Issa, but Menendez says they never received a response.
Issa downplayed Menendez's objections and argued that the senator was simply rehashing public information about the former congressman's time in the Army nearly 50 years ago. Issa's military career included a demotion and an "unsatisfactory" conduct rating, as well as an allegation that he stole another soldier's car. (Issa was later twice arrested for auto theft as a civilian, then became very wealthy after creating the Viper car alarm system, which featured his voice saying, "Please step away from the car.") However, Menendez said there was more troubling information in Issa's file, adding, "If they were all public, then we wouldn't be having the difficulty that we have."
As it has for many Trump nominees, Issa's confirmation process has taken forever to move forward, and during his time in purgatory, Issa seems to have come up with a backup plan: He recently formed an exploratory committee for a potential bid against GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter, who is scheduled to stand trial for corruption early next year. Hunter represents California's 50th District, which is located next to the 49th District that Issa retired from last cycle just ahead of the Democratic wave.
Not long ago, Issa said that he would likely run against Hunter if he wasn't confirmed by Nov. 3. However, that timeline may have gotten upended after Thursday's drama, as Issa told the media, "Give me a little time to make something official on that." California's filing deadline is in December.
Senate
● GA-Sen-B: Democratic state Sen. Jen Jordan told the Associated Press this week that she was interested in running in next year's special election. Jordan previously considered running in the regularly scheduled contest to take on GOP Sen. David Perdue, but she announced in April that she'd remain in the legislature.
Jordan attracted national attention in the spring when she delivered a scathing speech against the state GOP's law that banned abortion after just six weeks, which is before many women know they're pregnant. Jordan memorably declared, "Yes, I am talking about stuff I don't want to talk about in this chamber," and added, "But let me tell you something. If you're going to get into the most private areas where women are, then you're going to have to listen to it."
Jordan also revealed that eight of her ten pregnancies had ended in a miscarriage. She later told Roll Call she felt compelled to include her losses in her speech because "[t]he only way I thought the men in that chamber would get it is was to personalize it." She also told the GOP-dominated state Senate, "If you shirk the most basic duties you have to protect the fundamental rights of women today, then no doubt the women of this state will reclaim their rights—after they have claimed your seats."
DeKalb County Chief Executive Officer Michael Thurmond also told the AP he was keeping his options open for a possible run. Having previously won statewide for labor commissioner, Thurmond ran for this seat in 2010 against GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, but his campaign didn't attract much national attention in a cycle where Senate Democrats had to defend a host of vulnerable seats. Thurmond lost 58-39, but his career rebounded in 2016 when he was elected to lead DeKalb County, a large and heavily Democratic constituency in the Atlanta area.
On Thursday, freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath announced that she'd seek re-election to her House seat rather than run in the special election for Senate. McBath reportedly had been considering a statewide race and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that national Democrats "aggressively" tried to recruit her, though the paper also said earlier this month some Democrats wanted her to stay and defend the competitive 6th Congressional District that she flipped last year.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: The media company Nexstar is out with a survey of the Oct. 12 all-party primary for governor of Louisiana from the GOP firm JMC Analytics, and they find Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards taking first place with 41% of the vote, several points below the majority he'll need to avoid a November runoff. Rep. Ralph Abraham leads wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone, a fellow Republican, 24-16 for second place, which would earn the congressman the second spot in a runoff. Nexstar released the poll, which has a sample size of 600, just ahead of the Thursday TV debate that they co-hosted.
JMC's results are similar to the other two polls we saw in September, though both those surveys showed Edwards a bit closer to a majority. A Southern Media and Opinion Research poll conducted in early September for unidentified clients had Edwards at 47%, and they gave Abraham the same 24-16 lead over Rispone that JMC recently found. A Remington Research poll conducted for Abraham had Edwards at 45%, while Abraham's 27-19 lead against Rispone was the same 8-point advantage that both SMOR and JMC found.
While all three polls agree that Abraham still leads Rispone for the second-place spot in a potential runoff, JMC also finds the wealthy businessman gaining ground now that he's begun spending heavily on TV ads. JMC's last survey from late April, which was conducted for a lobbying firm that works for a number of prominent industrial companies, found Edwards at 38%, while Abraham outpaced his fellow Republican 23-7.
It's a bad sign for Abraham that JMC shows him stuck in place as the undecideds move to Rispone, but that's actually a better trendline for the congressman than what his poll recently found. In June, Remington showed Abraham leading Rispone for second 34-8, so his own numbers have him losing support as Rispone gains ground (Edwards took 42% in that June poll).
There are just over three weeks to go before Election Day, but Abraham may have a very tough time defending his second-place position during that time. Rispone, who has been mostly self-funding his campaign, had $6.3 million to spend in early September compared to the $5.7 million Edwards had available, while Abraham had just $1.4 million in the bank.
Republicans have been griping about Abraham's underwhelming fundraising all year, and he announced all the way back in late June that he'd brought on some well-connected donors to help him turn things around. One of them, well-known Trump fundraiser Joe Canizaro, even confidently predicted a few weeks later, "A lack of funds will not be a problem for Ralph Abraham." However, Abraham's fundraising dream team doesn't appear to have done much to help him reverse his continuing and problematic lack of funds.
House
● CA-53: On Wednesday, Marine veteran Janessa Goldbeck announced that she would run as a Democrat for this safely blue open seat in the San Diego area. Goldbeck, who identifies as queer, left active service about six weeks ago with the rank of captain.
Goldbeck, who is running for office for the first time, emphasized her support for gun safety in her announcement. She said, "I'm a gun owner. I support the Second Amendment and I know that guns are critical tools of our military," but continues, "I carried an M16 and an M249 Squad Automatic Weapon in training, but I don't believe they belong in the homes of the civilians." Goldbeck added, "If you want to fire a military-grade weapon, join the Marines."
● FL-15: While former Polk County Judge Bob Doyel didn't rule out seeking the Democratic nod last year, he took his name out of the running this week by endorsing state Rep. Adam Hattersley.
● GA-13: On Thursday, former East Point Mayor Jannquell Peters announced that she'd challenge veteran Rep. David Scott in the Democratic primary for this safely blue seat in the southwestern Atlanta suburbs. Peters led her 35,000-person suburban Atlanta community until early 2018, and she went on to serve in Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms' administration as chief service officer.
Scott, a member of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition, has a history of siding against his party on key issues and publicly supporting Republican candidates. However, Peters' announcement framed the primary as a generational battle rather than an ideological fight. Her press release declared that Scott was "a career politician who has held office since 1974―when Jimmy Carter was Governor and MARTA's rail system had not even broken ground." Scott was first elected to the state legislature that year, and he won his first congressional race in 2002.
● IA-02: End Citizens United has endorsed former state Sen. Rita Hart in the Democratic primary for this open seat.
● MA-04: Rep. Joe Kennedy III will reportedly announce on Saturday that he's challenging Sen. Ed Markey in the Massachusetts Democratic primary bid, a move that would open up his blue 4th Congressional District. This seat includes the affluent Boston suburbs of Brookline and Newton and stretches south to Attleboro and Taunton. Hillary Clinton carried the district 59-35, and Team Blue should have no trouble holding it without Kennedy.
Former Wall Street regulator Ihssane Leckey launched a primary challenge against Kennedy here all the way back in May. Leckey, who immigrated to the United States from Morocco and went on to work at the Federal Reserve, contrasted her pitch for democratic socialism with Kennedy's call for "moral capitalism." However, Leckey raised just $12,000 during her first quarter in the race.
A number of other Democrats have been considering running in the weeks since Kennedy began publicly flirting with a Senate bid. State Treasurer Deb Goldberg set up a fundraising committee last week, though her team said Wednesday evening that she was still mulling over her plans.
That same night, after the news broke that Kennedy would run against Markey, Alliance for Business Leadership head Jesse Mermell resigned her post leading the nonprofit, and a source close to her said she'd launch her campaign in days. Mermell was a top aide to Deval Patrick during his governorship, and like Goldberg, she's a former Brookline selectwoman.
Several other Democrats have expressed interest in running for an open seat in August and in September:
- Newton City Councilor Jake Auchincloss
- Assistant state Attorney General Dave Cavell
- Transportation for Massachusetts director Chris Dempsey
- State Sen. Paul Feeney
- Former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan (was quoted as saying "🤔")
- Attorney and former New Bedford Mayor Scott Lang
- State Rep. Tommy Vitolo
- Newton City Councilor Becky Walker Grossman
In the reportedly considering column we have:
- Brookline Selectman Raul Fernandez
- Be The Change CEO and 2009 Senate candidate Alan Khazei
- Former Newton Mayor Setti Warren
- Boston City Councilor Josh Zakim
Democrats who haven't ruled out running include:
- 2018 gubernatorial nominee Jay Gonzalez
- Attleboro Mayor Paul Heroux
- State Sen. Marc Pacheco
Other Democrats who have been mentioned are:
- State Rep. Ruth Balser
- State Sen. Cynthia Creem
- State Rep. Claire Cronin
- Attorney and Senate candidate Shannon Liss-Riordan
- Former Boston City Councilor Mike Ross
- Obama Foundation CEO David Simas
- Former Fall River Mayor Sam Sutter
State Sen. Becca Rausch initially considered campaigning for this seat, but she took her name out of contention last week.
While this seat is very unlikely to be in play, especially with Donald Trump leading the GOP ticket, state Rep. Shawn Dooley expressed interest in running last month. Former state Rep. Keiko Orrall, who lost last year's treasurer race to Goldberg 68-29, and state Rep. Shaunna O'Connell have also been mentioned.
● SC-01: On Thursday, former Charleston County Republican Party chair Larry Kobrovsky announced that he would not run for this seat.
● UT-01: Clearfield Mayor Mark Shepherd confirmed this week that he was "definitely leaning toward" seeking the GOP nod for this safely red open seat in northern Utah. Shepherd, who also works as a real estate agent, was elected mayor of this 31,000-person city in 2013.
Morgan County Councilor Tina Cannon and Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt are currently running in the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Rob Bishop, but a number of other local politicians are considering entering the race. The Standard-Examiner reports that Box Elder County Commissioner Stan Summers, who we hadn't heard mentioned before, has said he's thinking about getting in, but there's no quote from Summers.