Fuel For Thought is back, and this week, we are focusing on Peak Oil, problems with Canada meeting their Kyoto obligations, and support for biodiesel from an unexpected direction.
All this and more, after the bump....
OPINION |
RANT OF THE WEEK |
BIGGEST LITTLE NEWS STORY |
DKOS ENERGY DIARIES |
NOTABLE TRENDS
OPINION
Peak Oil: A Meme Whose Time Has Come
Terry In Austin last week brought up the subject of Peak Oil, and while the main thrust of this diary is forward-looking, it is very much worth looking at what will be one of the greatest pressures--along with global warming--to drive changes in energy policy and production. Peak Oil, also known as the Hubbert peak theory after geophysicist M. King Hubbert, tries to predict when an oil supply will decline in production. Hubbert's theory accurately predicted that, just for the US, oil production would peak in the early 1970s, but his second prediction, that worldwide oil production would peak in the late 1990s, is running a little late, probably due to the oil crisis in the 1970s spurring much more development than was originally planned. Unfortunately, this relatively minor gap is being used to discredit the theory on grounds that Peak Oil does not work on a global scale. However, barring the location of any new oil megafields, we are quickly reaching a point where there aren't enough new sources of petroleum, and where it is no longer affordable to extract any remaining oil from the old sources. And when we reach that point, high oil prices will be the least of our concerns.
I've tried to find any serious rebuttal to the Peak Oil theory, but aside from claims that Hubbart's theories do not work on a global scale, the only substantial rebuttal I found claims that Peak Oil is a Zionist conspiracy. Naturally, I won't be linking to that site, amusing as the anti-semetic paranoia might be. Nor does one conspiracy theorist defeat any possible rebuttal. The problem is, there are no serious rebuttals, only denial. The strongest statement I've seen so far is that, simply put, alternate forms of energy require a larger capital investment right now. When--not if--oil prices increase, it will likely spur on alt-energy development. But a question remains: Will the switch-over happen soon enough?
Going back to last week's OPINION section, recall that we talked about qualities of an ideal energy source. From the point of view of America's quality of life, an energy source should be concentrated, stable, and convenient. Oil currently covers all three, but only because of a combination of infrastructure and political pressures to keep oil prices artificially low. (Matthew Simmons has pointed out that the realistic price for oil is around $182 per barrel, for instance.) Eventually, market forces will demand a realignment of oil prices to match supply vs demand--and we will be caught in a major energy crisis when that happens.
The biggest problems here are that, while the public support environmentalism in general, there is no widespread push to move to alternate energy sources. This needs to change. My recommendation is to take advantage of any discussion of energy usage to point out the looming energy crisis, and to urge pressure upon both governments--local, state, and federal--and upon the industry itself to start investing in new energy infrastructures now. Anything less, and we are risking major peril.
RANT OF THE WEEK
Because a little outrage is good for your soul
Courtesy of The Toronto Star's Richard Gwyn:
Having signed on (and having endlessly congratulated ourselves for doing more than those selfish, rapacious Americans), our government finds itself in the embarrassing position that there's quite obviously no way we can fulfill the Kyoto commitments we've taken on.
The government can't admit this, of course. So it's going to spend most of the time to 2012 (when the target of a 5.2 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases is supposed to be met) by faking it, by cheating and by fibbing -- to us and to others.
This last is the real rub. We pride ourselves on being "model world citizens." Quite a few countries actually sort-of believe this about us. If the good guy cheats, why shouldn't everyone else?
And capitalists can occasionally be caring. Dow Chemical has reduced its greenhouse gas output by an astonishing 65 per cent (and saved money). No Canadian corporation has been as visionary. Similarly, none of our oil companies has begun to match the pollution reductions already implemented by Shell.
Our signing of Kyoto has been an exercise in political opportunism. Mostly, it enables us to do precious little while reassuring Canadians we're better than those awful Americans.
There are signs of improvement. Environment Minister Stéphane Dion is off this week to learn what to do. Where's he going? California.
Oh, snap!
BIGGEST LITTLE NEWS STORY OF THE WEEK
If you missed it the first time, look again
Willie Nelson Starts Biodiesel Company!:
KumarP caught the most fun story the alt-energy crowd has had in a while--Willie Nelson's marketing of BioWillie biodiesel fuel, to be sold at truck stops everywhere. YOU THERE, SNICKERING! Bow down before the coolest Country singer alive! All right, "BioWillie" isn't what I would've called it, but remember, Willie still has a lot of credibility amongst truckers, and the biodiesel is being sold as an American home-grown energy source, which should have a lot of appeal as well. I don't expect Willie Nelson to become a biodiesel tycoon, but I don't think I'd mind if he did--especially if that meant more gifts of whiskey to rebellious Democrats.
DKOS ENERGY DIARIES
Other Kossacks speak up
Check them out:
Global Dimming: Kyoto and Beyond: by wilfred
Really bad news on global warming: by Scott in NAZ
Death of environmentalism? by byoungbl
And while this isn't technically an energy diary, SeattleLiberal's Nerd Network News includes an energy section. It must be good, this diary's mentioned there!
NOTABLE TRENDS
Patterns in Energy News
Note: To simplify matters, by and large I will be commenting on stories where needed for clarity, or because it deserves snarkiness. Note also that, while I have grouped stories into general categories, I have also tried to arrange the categories so that the final story in one category segues into the first story of the next, since many stories are interlinked.
Nuclear Power Remains Environmental Horror
Stop 'outrageous' nuclear waste dump: Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. promised to stop dumping radioactive and chemical waste at Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories--and then broke their promise.
Northwest connected to Hanford's problems: The bad news: Small amounts of contaminated water are leaking. The worse news: Thousands of monitoring wells dug to check levels of water contamination, currently unused, are not being decommissioned properly, increasing the risks of further contamination. WASHINGTON STATE #1!!!
The Chinese Are Power-Hungry
China Promotes Another Boom: Nuclear Power: Two new nuclear reactors will be built in China every year from now until 2020. The plans include both old-fashioned fuel rod reactors as well as pebble bed reactors. China's future's so bright, you gotta wear lead aprons. (free registration required)
A Watershed Role for Farmers: China is building over 100 dams in the Yunnan province, including several dozen larger than Washington's Grand Coulee Dam. (To put this into perspective, the Grand Coulee helped make aluminum cheap to refine in large amounts. So imagine 100 times that capability--just in hydropower.) But these dams may displace about 1 million people--and they are not happy. They are using the Internet to keep one another up-to-date and informed, foiling attempts to mislead them into accepting the dam. However, their general consensus is that Beijing is on their side, against greedy local officials. Let's hope they're right.
The People Are Resisting
They flattened this mountaintop to find coal - and created a wasteland: Mountaintops in the Appalachians are being strip-mined to reveal thin stratas of coal, leaving massive environmental damage in the process. The residents, tired of watching their homes and land being destroyed by Bush-backing mining interests, are fighting back.
Wind's Upsurge
Energy; the growth of wind: No Right Turn comments on an article in the New Zealand newspaper The Dominion Post, pointing out that wind power is on the rise, in part because more active winds there mean more energy production--and more equals cheaper, cheap enough to compete against imported liquid natural gas. One company holds that it can produce electricity at less than six (New Zealand) cents per kilowatt-hour, which makes it cheaper than gas. And, of course, wind power means carbon trading credits, driving the price down further. Anyone interested in wind power over the long term should look towards the Kiwis. This is exciting stuff.
The wind farm: a cleaner energy alternative?: In Cape Code, the Cape Wind project is expected to produce 170 megawatts per hour. Some argue that is puny compared to nuclear power, while others point out that 170 megawatts per hour could cover 75% of the Cape's average energy needs. Most agree, however, that it will take multiple solutions, including energy conservation, to keep up with energy demand.
Renewable energy - what price, what gain?: Enemalta Corporation has only considered up-front costs in their estimates, ignoring the long-term costs of oil economies. Here the author points out why such shortsightedness is hurting wind power's chances.
Clipper Windpower plant could employ as many as 550: Nevada, manufacturers of 435-foot tall wind generators? Show us the jobs!
Hybrid automobiles
Hybrids' 'wow' factor waning: An AP story filed in Detroit makes it sound like hybrid car sales are on a decline. In truth, as the story itself points out, sales are on an increase--but auto makers are skeptical that demand will continue to increase, because that requires them to make better hybrid engines and lower price. Oh no, not that! On the other hand, Toyota expects 50% of the vehicle market to be dominated by hybrids by 2025. It's good to see that at least one manufacturer isn't run by craven cowards afraid of confronting the future.
Hybrid cars may get OK to use high-occupancy lane: Massachusetts contemplates allowing single-occupancy hybrid vehicles into HOV lanes. It's not a lightly made decision, as Virginia has problems with hybrid cars blocking their HOV lanes. Also, do you allow hybrid SUVs with their lower fuel efficiencies? Finally, do you wait for the Federal Highway Administration to set guidelines, as most states are, or do you take the initiative? Alas, it looks like Massachusetts is choosing the latter.
Misc. Etc.
As economy revs up, Kyoto obligations mount: Canada has to cut their emissions by 240 metric megatons. Oops. Make that 300 megatons. Sorry about that. (See the Rant Of The Week above for details.)
Blair Backtracking on Climate Change Pledges: Remember that Britain is seeking a higher ceiling on carbon emissions? Blair's excuse? He wants to use the higher ceilings to woo the US back into Kyoto. In a word: Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee*t.
Wood is on a hot seat: FERC head Pat Wood was appointed to reign in the out-of-control energy market. But resistance from Southern Republicans--surprise--has made it near impossible for Wood to do his job. And now we know what Bush meant in that one debate....
Honda fuel-cell cars to be available in U.S.: Honda says they will start selling hydrogen fuel-cell cars to individuals in the US by the end of this year--just enough time for me to put the finishing touches on my personal hydrogen infrastructure. I don't have a hydrogen infrastructure. Nobody does, except for a few government agencies. What the hell...?
Green Groups Hope Suit forces US Hand on Warming: Repeat after me: GLOBAL WARMING CLASS ACTION LAWSUIT.
How high oil prices can be green
Paper sludge fuels mills
Home-Made Biofuels Are Best, Group Says: The emphasis here is on ethanol, and while there are concerns about pollution and the use of fossil fuels in the production of ethanol, increased ethanol production is seen here as an overall plus.
Community in northeast Iowa is energy self-sufficient