There have been quite a few stories about new delegate targets and path to nomination for Bernie Sanders. This is a quick lookup table/cue card for the goals and targets for some of the upcoming events.
Some more commendable stories have been the ones asking people to keep campaigning and voting and volunteering to achieve the new targets. Example here is an excellent one -Team-Bernie-it-s-half-time-and-we-re-down-15-What-s-coming-up-in-the-second-half from subir detailing what the goals/targets for yet to come primaries/caucuses.
Hopefully what is detailed below will help people work towards their targets. I have attempted to list some key vote share percentages required to make an impact on actual delegate numbers acquired/earned. The target numbers for Bernie Sanders is used directly from subir’s story. Hopefully this will help people campaign for their candidate with a bit better information about what is needed.
Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. So naturally it would be handy to have a quick lookup table for each state and performance required. Numbers presented are based on uniform performance across all districts.
{Bernie Target for winning in bold below. — ty floridageorge}
Arizona (Target 46 out of 75) Major delegate number changes at 50%, 58.4%, 62.5%, 70% (target seems low)
4 districts with odd number of delegates. Major delegate movements happen at 50%, 58.4%, 62.5%, 70%
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (2+12+9+4=27) and from statewide (5+8=13) with overall results 40vs35
Just 58.4%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (2+12+12+5=31) and from statewide (5+9=14) with overall results 45vs30
Just 62.5% (So target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+12+12+5=32) and from statewide (6+10=16) with overall results 48vs27.
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Idaho (Target 16 out of 23)
1 district with odd number of delegates (and two from statewide). Major delegate movements happen at 50%, 56.3%, 64.3%, 68.8%, 70%
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (4+4=8) and from statewide (2+3=5) with overall results 13vs10
At, 56.3%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (4+5=9) and from statewide (2+3=5) with overall results 14vs9
At 64.3%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (5+5=10) and from statewide (2+3=5) with overall results 15vs8
At 68.8% (So target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (5+6=11) and from statewide (2+3=5) with overall results 16vs7
At 70%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (5+6=11) and from statewide (2+4=6) with overall results 17vs6
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Utah (Target 21 out of 33) 1 district with odd number of delegates (and one from statewide). Major delegate movements happen at 50%, 58.4%, 62.5%, 64.3%, 70%, 75%
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (6+6=12) and from statewide (2+4=6) with overall results 18vs15
At 58.4%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (6+8=14) and from statewide (2+4=6) with overall results 20vs13
At 62.5% (So target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (6+8=14) and from statewide (3+4=7) with overall results 21vs12
At 64.3%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (6+8=14) and from statewide (3+5=8) with overall results 22vs11
At 70%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (8+8=16) and from statewide (3+5=8) with overall results 24vs9
_____ Alaska (Target 10 out of 16) Single district. Not with odd number of delegates (and none from statewide). Major delegate movements happen at 55%, 62.5%, 65%, 75%
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (5) and from statewide (1+2=3) with overall results 8vs8
At 55%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (6) and from statewide (1+2=3) with overall results 9vs7
At 62.5% (So target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (6) and from statewide (1+3=4) with overall results 10vs6
At 65%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (7) and from statewide (1+3=4) with overall results 11vs5
At 75%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (8) and from statewide (2+3=5) with overall results 13vs3
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Hawaii (Target 15 out of 25) No districts with odd number of delegates (and one from statewide). Major delegate movements happen at 50, 56.3%, 58.4, 68.8, 75%
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (8) and from statewide (2+3=5) with overall results 13vs12
At 56.3% (So target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (10) and from statewide (2+3=5) with overall results 15vs10
At 58.4%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (10) and from statewide (2+4=6) with overall results 16vs9
At 68.8%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (12) and from statewide (2+4=6) with overall results 18vs7
At 75%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (12) and from statewide (2+5=7) with overall results 19vs6
All of the above are peanuts some big delegate numbers are next two:
However Washington State next (Target 66 out of 101) might have better opportunities to catch up. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/03/02/1494425/-Washington-State-Delegate-Mathematics-101-Dels 5 districts with odd number of delegates (and none from statewide). Major delegate movements happen at 50, 54.2, 58.4, 62.5, 64.3,70, 70.9, 75
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (2+3+9+16+6=36) and from statewide (6+11=17) with overall results 53vs48
At 54.2%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (2+3+9+16+7=37) and from statewide (7+12=19) with overall results 56vs45
At 58.4%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (2+3+12+16+7=40) and from statewide (7+13=20) with overall results 60vs41
At 62.5%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+3+12+16+8=42) and from statewide (8+14=22) with overall results 64vs37
At 64.3% (So target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+3+12+20+8=46) and from statewide (8+14=22) with overall results 68vs33
At 70%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+4+12+20+8=47) and from statewide (8+15=23) with overall results 70vs31
At 70.9%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+4+12+20+9=48) and from statewide (9+16=25) with overall results 73vs28
At 75%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+4+15+20+9=51) and from statewide (9+17=26) with overall results 77vs24
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Wisconsin State next (Target 54 out of 86) might also have better opportunities to catch up. This target seems unusually low. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/03/02/1494552/-Wisconsin-Delegate-Mathematics-86-Dels 3 districts with odd number of delegates (and one from statewide). Major delegate movements happen at 50, 55, 58.4, 65, 70, 75
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+12+4+5+6=30) and from statewide (5+10=15) with overall results 45vs41
At 55%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+12+4+6+6=31) and from statewide (6+10=16) with overall results 47vs39
At 58.4%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+16+4+6+6=35) and from statewide (6+11=17) with overall results 52vs34
At 60.6% (Target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+16+4+6+7=36) and from statewide (6+12=18) with overall results 54vs32
At 65%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+16+5+7+7=38) and from statewide (7+12=19) with overall results 57vs29
Just scraping above 70%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (4+16+5+7+8=40) and from statewide (7+13=20) with overall results 60vs26
Just scraping above 75%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (4+20+5+8+8=45) and from statewide (8+14=22) with overall results 67vs19
_____ Wyoming (Target 10 out of 14)
Single district, single result ah so simpler to see. delegate numbers change at 56.3, 62.5, 68.8, 75, 81.3, 85
fast and quick data, scraping past 50% translates to (4+2+1=7)
at 56.3% translates to (5+2+1=8) at 62.5% translates to (5+3+1=9)
at 68.8% Target is here translates to (6+3+1=10)
at 75% translates to (6+3+2=11)
at 81.3% translates to (7+3+2=12)
at 85% translates to (8+4+2=14)
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Where ever you are trying to get people out to vote, you know what you have to achieve. If you manage to get more then at least that relieves the pressure in other harder states for your comrades.
For more detailed state by state look pop into http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/08/1481899/-All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
For other states in the target list, their primary/caucus are a bit further away. Most likely goal/target will change. California and New York have been covered in detailed in -California-Delegate-Mathematics-475-Dels and -New-York-Delegate-Mathematics-247-Dels .
{I am a DWS admirer. I am also (like DWS philosophy) an indiscriminate supporter and promoter of active participation. Please do not let that in anyway make anyone think that this story is a put down. It is not as you can see from my previous posts/comments and such. I am always in favour of active participation and expanding the local electorate and paying more attention to local party and local elections.}