For a political party that swears they love the Constitution, there is no better proof of their hostility to the concept of free, fair elections and open democracy than in Republican-controlled Texas. Whereas other states have bipartisan commissions, state constitutional amendments, or favorable Supreme Court rulings to stop blatant gerrymandering, there is no such good fortune if you are a voter in the Lone Star state.
I have covered the multiple competitive House races for Florida, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I was prepared for a long night covering Texas, because it is so big and has so many races. I wasn’t expecting it to be this easy.
Gerrymandering by the republicans is so bad, that out of 36 Congressional districts holding elections, there is only one competitive race: TX-CD 23. A total of 25 of the 36 districts are very safely Republican: they are all over 10+ in the Cook partisan voting index. That is disgraceful. This is unheard of in states with fair elections.
What about all of those liberals in San Antonio and Texas? They are all packed in one massive Congressional District: TX CD-35. Buzzfeed and the Washington Post have dubbed it one of the worst in the nation—only to be outdone by another Texas congressional district—TX CD 33. This district crams every single Democratic household into one giant squiggle from Dallas to Fort Worth.
As bad as the Congressional districts are, it's even worse in their state legislature. Democrats didn’t even bother to field a candidate in many races, so even if Democrats somehow won every race they still couldn’t win back control of the Texas House chamber. There is a similar story for the Texas State Senate: there are 11 Democratic incumbents and 20 Republican incumbents, and that isn’t going to change without fair elections. Not one of the GOP incumbents even faced a primary challenger.
When the outcomes are predetermined, turnout is low. Throw in a boatload of GOP-induced voting suppression measures, and it's no wonder that Texas has the worst turnout of any state, with the exception of Louisiana. (Louisiana has a similar GOP-infection problem.)
Low voter turnout isn't a problem for the republicans—in fact, it's their goal. As Obama told the Texas Tribune:
"The folks who are governing the good state of Texas aren't interested in having more people participate"
But votes can make a difference. Three polls in a row have shown Hillary Clinton only 7 points behind Trump. A Rasmussen poll, which has a well-known GOP bias, has Trump up by 2 points—42 percent to 40 percent—in a four-way race nationally. The key is Latino voters, the fastest growing demographic who have been notoriously disenfranchised. Only 17% of this group shows up to vote. Trump is changing this equation. The Latino turnout that Dems have been waiting for may finally come now.
There is a surge in Latino registrations. If the turnout moves to the low 20s, it's a game-changer.
Add to that the number of dissatisfied Republicans are starting to abandon straight-ticket voting for more than one reason, including a growing frustration with what they see as corruption in Texas' GOP-led government, and 2016 might be the beginning of the end of GOP dominance in Texas. Then maybe you Texans can get the fair and competitive elections you deserve.
In the meantime, I offer you the only two of interest:
CD-23: TOSS-UP
This is our best shot for a pickup. Pete Gallego held this seat, but lost it in the GOP wave of 2014. I used to live in this district when I was serving in San Antonio. It has a lot of military bases, and conservative incumbent William Hurd has thoroughly pissed them off by voting against Veteran's benefits, holding a town hall as an excuse to shoot a commercial, and standing by Donald Trump—even after he insulted a Gold Star family and made fun of POWs.
Support Pete Gallego for Congress
CD-1: Safe Republican
Louis "He disparaged my asparagus" Gohmert has earned his title of “America's Dumbest Congressman." This district was once in Democratic hands back in 2002, but after a highly controversial 2003 redistricting orchestrated by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, Texarkana was drawn out of the district. Lufkin, Tyler and Longview were added in its place. Gohmert, who hailed from Tyler, was swept in office in 2004 after the gerrymandering. He has won ever since. His opponent is the same as in 2012, Shirley J. McKellar, where he received three times as many votes. There really is no level of embarrassment that Gohmert can sink to that would make his voters care. I applaud McKellar's efforts to take on Gohmert, but it would take a wave of epic proportions for her to have a shot.
Support Shirley McKellar for Congress