The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Polls: On Friday, you may have seen a poll from a group called Blumenthal Research Daily, or BRD, purportedly showing a close race in the March 13 special election for Pennsylvania's 18th District. Political observers like Elliott Morris quickly noted that there was almost no information about who they were online, nor a record of their founder "Timothy Blumenthal" anywhere. Back in October, when BRD released numbers for Virginia's gubernatorial race, there were also plenty of unanswered questions about whether BRD was even a real outlet. Those questions were answered on Friday when they released a statement declaring, "Yes, Blumenthal Research Daily is a fake pollster. The numbers used were random and I did little to no research before piecing together a rather sloppy google doc."
Campaign Action
Unfortunately, this isn't the first time a poll has generated attention despite some serious questions about whether it was, you know, real. All the way back in August, Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight took a look at some headline-grabbing "surveys," like a poll from Delphi Analytica that ostensibly showed Kid Rock leading Michigan Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow 30-26. No one had ever heard of Delphi Analytica before then, and there was little information about them on their website (which is no longer operative). But that didn't stop several outlets from writing stories on it, or from Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott from excitedly tweeting it out.
This new Blumenthal Research Daily "poll" is a good reminder that, especially in this day and age when it's incredibly easy to spread "poll results" far and wide, it's important to be careful not to get taken. Enten also wrote an article that we highly recommend about questions you should ask when looking at a poll from a group you've never heard of, or otherwise know little about. These include whether the poll looks professional (BRD and Delphi's crappy websites were good indications that they weren't professional operations); whether the pollster was revealing important details about the sample, like when it was conducted and what means were used; and what type of questions were being asked.
As the cycle goes on, we're expecting to see a whole lot more polls from dubious sources. And while it's easy (and appropriate) to laugh at the Greg Abbotts of the world who instantly share pro-Republican numbers, we need to be just as skeptical when a firm we don't know anything about shows Democrats doing well in races we badly want to win.
Senate
● MS-Sen: Candidate filing closed Thursday for Mississippi's June 5 primary, and the Clarion-Ledger has a list of federal candidates here. Note that there will be a June 26 runoff in contests where no one takes a majority in the first round.
Because there was a late-breaking development in the Democratic Senate primary, we'll start there. State Rep. Omeria Scott, who has represented the Laurel area since 1993, entered the race on the final day of qualifying. Days before, national Democrats had successfully recruited state House Minority Leader David Baria, who represents a conservative Gulf Coast seat. Venture capitalist Howard Sherman, who is the husband of actress Sela Ward, also entered the race late. Scott is the only black candidate in a race where most of the Democratic electorate is black, which could give her an edge. Mississippi is a very red state, but Democrats hope they'll have an opening if the GOP primary goes off the rails.
That brings us to the main event. Sen. Roger Wicker is seeking another term, and he has the support of Donald Trump, Gov. Phil Bryant, and much of the national GOP establishment. State Sen. Chris McDaniel, a tea partier who is anything but an ally to these groups, announced just before the filing deadline that he'd challenge Wicker in the primary.
McDaniel ran against Sen. Thad Cochran in the 2014 primary and narrowly lost the runoff in an upset. McDaniel never conceded that race, and he launched his new campaign declaring, "We haven't forgotten what they did in '14." McDaniel also argued that, even though Trump was supporting his opponent, McDaniel was the true Trump ally. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell didn't want someone as hostile as McDaniel in the Senate in 2014 and he doesn't want him there now, and his allies will likely spend whatever they need to if they're afraid he has a chance in June. Team Red is also afraid that McDaniel, a former far-right radio host who has a long history of misogynistic language and long ties to neo-Confederate groups, could be flawed enough to give Democrats a chance in November if he's their nominee.
However, the Wicker-McDaniel fight may not come to pass after all. Cochran has been in ill health for the last year, and there's plenty of speculation that he'll step down soon, which would prompt a special election. McDaniel himself didn't rule out switching races if this came to pass, and his chances would probably be better in a special than against Wicker. In Mississippi special elections, all the candidates run on one officially nonpartisan ballot, and if no one takes a majority, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general. Bryant would appoint someone to this seat if it opened up, but if McDaniel could harness enough anti-establishment Republicans, he'd have a good chance to blow past that appointed incumbent and reach the general election with a Democrat. But there's still no guarantee that Cochran will leave the Senate this year, so McDaniel is still going to need to plan to face Wicker.
While McDaniel came very close to beating Cochran four years ago, Wicker looks like a much stronger opponent. Cochran had always been a reliably conservative senator, but his long tenure, occasional bipartisan actions, and success getting appropriations for his state made him a tempting target. Cochran also hadn't faced a real fight in decades and started with little money, and he never really seemed to understand the direction his party was heading in. But Wicker, who chaired the NRSC during the last cycle, has been aggressively raising money, and he has the Trump seal of approval. McDaniel will also have far less time to organize a campaign against Wicker than he did against Cochran, though he does have a well-funded super PAC in his corner already.
A little-known Republican named Richard Boyanton is also running, so if the primary is unexpectedly close, this race could go to a runoff. Back in 2014, a different little-known third candidate named Thomas Carey won just 1.5 percent of the vote, but that was enough to prevent either McDaniel or Cochran from securing a majority. McDaniel had led the incumbent in the first round, and if Carey hadn't been on the ballot, he would have won the GOP nomination. Instead, Cochran used the three-week runoff to reach out to African Americans and convince them to vote in the GOP primary, and the rest is history.
Gubernatorial
● AR-Gov: Candidate filing closed on Thursday for Arkansas' May 22 primary, and the state has a list of candidates available here. Note that there will be a runoff on June 19 for contests where no one takes a majority of the vote.
GOP Gov. Asa Hutchinson is the heavy favorite to win a second term. Hutchinson's primary opponent, former Fox News contributor Jan Morgan, did attain national notoriety in 2014 when she declared that a shooting range she owns would be a "Muslim Free Zone," but it doesn't look like she'll have the resources to beat Hutchinson, who doesn't seem to have alienated many state conservatives. Democrats wanted a viable candidate to turn out voters for more winnable races down the ballot, and former state Teach for America executive director Jared Henderson faces little intra-party opposition.
● GA-Gov: Mason-Dixon gives us a look at both May party primaries and hypothetical general election matchups. Note that this survey was concluded on Feb. 23, days before the GOP-dominated state government began going after a proposed tax break for the Atlanta-based Delta Airlines after the company announced that it was cutting ties with the NRA. It's unclear what effect this will have on this year's race for governor, though Democrats hope it will cause a backlash that will give Team Blue the chance to win back the office after 16 years.
We'll start with a look at the GOP primary. Note that if no one takes a majority in May, there will be a runoff in July:
Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle: 27
Secretary of State Brian Kemp: 13
Businessman Clay Tippins: 12
Former state Sen. Hunter Hill: 11
State Sen. Michael Williams: 5
Undecided: 31
The few polls we saw last year all showed Cagle in first place, though they disagreed about how much support he had. Not surprisingly, Cagle, who has served as lieutenant governor since 2007, has by far the most name recognition with GOP voters. Cagle has a strong 53-7 score, while large majorities see the rest of the field either in a neutral light or admit to not recognizing them.
Cagle is very close to the GOP establishment, which is often more of a liability than an asset in modern GOP primaries. But Cagle has been a loud supporter of the move to kill Delta's proposed tax break, which could help him with conservatives.
It's a very tight race for the second spot in the likely July runoff. Tippins and Hill recently began airing ads, as has a group supporting Cagle. Kemp and Williams haven't gone on the air yet, but they both have the resources to.
The Democratic field is a whole lot smaller. Former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams leads former state Rep. Stacey Evans 29-17, while 54 percent are undecided. Name recognition seems to explain Abrams early edge more than anything else at this point: Democratic primary voters have a 23-5 favorable view of Abrams, while Evans has a 14-1 score. This is the first poll we've seen of the primary from anyone. Prominent Democratic leaders are backing both candidates, and Evans received an endorsement from former Sen. Max Cleland on Friday.
Mason-Dixon also tests both Democrats against the leading four Republicans and finds Cagle doing the best for Team Red. First is Abrams vs. the GOP:
39-45 vs. Cagle
40-37 vs. Kemp
41-40 vs. Tippins
43-37 vs. Hill
And next is Evans vs. the GOP:
38-47 vs. Cagle
39-42 vs. Kemp
38-41 vs. Tippins
36-35 vs. Hill
Once again, Cagle's name recognition seems to explain why he's doing so much better than the rest of the GOP field against each Democrat. We'll see if that persists once everyone's had more time to get their names out and attack one another.
And there's one other important detail to note about the general election. Under Georgia law, if no one takes a majority in November, there would be a runoff between the top two candidates on Dec. 4.
In past cycles, the idea of a December runoff filled Democrats with dread, since Team Blue had a very tough time turning out voters for unusually scheduled elections. Notably in 2008, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss outpaced Democrat Jim Martin 49.8-46.8 in the November race, but thanks in large part to stronger GOP turnout, Chambliss won their runoff 57-43. But things could be different this year now that Democrats, fired up against Trump, are the ones turning out in disproportionate numbers in contests across the country.
● KS-Gov: On Friday, former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius endorsed state Sen. Laura Kelly in the August Democratic primary. The two are close and Kelly entered the race in December with support from Sebelius' fundraising network, so the move was not a surprise.
● MD-Gov: Mason-Dixon is out with the general election portion of their poll, and they give GOP Gov. Larry Hogan some good news. They find Hogan with a 63-26 approval rating in this very blue state, and leading in all three matchups by double digits. The only Democrat who holds Hogan below 50 percent is Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, and Hogan leads him 49-34. Hogan also leads Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker 51-36 and former NAACP head Ben Jealous 50-33. The only other poll we've seen this year testing Hogan against named Democratic rivals was a January survey from Gonzales Research; they also found Hogan beating all three by 10-14 points each, though they had him just shy of 50 percent for all three matchups.
● ME-Gov: Wealthy businessman Adam Lee spent more than a year flirting with a bid for the Democratic nomination, but while he sounded unlikely to run back in October, he didn't rule it out until now. However, Lee finally made his plans clear on Thursday when he sent out a fundraising email for former House Speaker Mark Eves, who is one of several candidates running in the June primary.
House
● AR-02: All four of Arkansas' GOP House members are seeking re-election this year, but Rep. French Hill is the only one who faces any serous opposition. This central Arkansas seat, which includes Little Rock, backed Trump 52-42, and Hill could be vulnerable in a good Democratic year. The DCCC successfully recruited state Rep. Clarke Tucker, who beat cancer last year. But high school teacher Paul Spencer, who has been active in local ethics reform initiatives, entered the race first and had $128,000 on-hand at the end of December. Two other Democrats are running, so it's possible this primary will go to a runoff.
● CA-25: Freshman Democratic Rep. Nanette Barragan has endorsed nonprofit director Katie Hill in the June top-two primary to take on GOP Rep. Steve Knight.
● FL-27: Back in January, the Miami Herald reported that retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen had spoken to local Spanish-language TV journalist Maria Elvira Salazar about seeking the GOP nod, and Salazar did not rule it out. On Thursday, Salazar announced she would run in the late August primary for this Miami-area seat, which went from 53-46 Obama all the way to 59-39 Clinton. Salazar was a news anchor for MEGATV, and she previously hosted a political news show. Her campaign also promotes her as "the first and ONLY U.S. Spanish-language television journalist to obtain a one-on-one interview with Fidel Castro during his 50 years in power."
A few months ago, Ros-Lehtinen suggested that Salazar "could be the right candidate" to keep this district red, but it's not clear if the congresswoman plans to support her. Songwriter Angie Chirino announced she would run in January, and just before her kickoff, Chirino's father and Ros-Lehtinen took a picture together, which some observers thought was more than a coincidence. Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro is also in, but his weak fundraising was what helped prompt Republicans to search for alternatives. A number of Democrats are running here.
● MS-03: GOP Rep. Gregg Harper announced in January that he would retire from this central Mississippi seat, which includes part of the Jackson area, Meridian, and Mississippi State University's campus in Starkville. This seat backed Trump 61-37 and most of the action will be in the GOP primary, but we unexpectedly had a development on the Democratic side that we'll begin with.
State Rep. Michael Evans entered the race on the final day of qualifying with little warning. Evans declared he "stands with those who value Second Amendment rights and the sanctity of human life," and he said he wanted to make fixing the state's infrastructure a priority in Congress. Evans, who is a poultry farmer and retired firefighter, was elected to the state House in a tight 2011 race, and he was re-elected without GOP opposition four years later as GOP Gov. Phil Bryant was carrying his seat 53-46. However, Evans only won renomination 53-47 that year, so he doesn't exactly seem beloved at home. One other Democrat is running.
On the GOP side, six candidates are running, and it would be a surprise if this didn't go to a runoff. Michael Guest, who serves as district attorney for Rankin and Madison counties (only a few Mississippi district attorneys represent just one county), entered the race almost immediately after Harper called it quits. Guest's constituency makes up about a quarter of the seat, and he's been mentioned as a rising star in GOP politics for some time. State Sen. Sally Doty is the only other current elected official in the race. Doty, who represents Brookhaven at the southern end of the district, has served as Elections Committee chair, where she has played a key role in blocking a bill to finally establish early voting despite it having near-unanimous support in the state House.
Baptist Health Foundation President Whit Hughes also has some connections. Notably, Hughes was Haley Barbour's finance chairman during his successful 2003 race for governor, and he went on to be deputy director of the Mississippi Development Authority. Hughes also was a prominent member of the Mississippi State University's 1996 basketball team, which made it to the Final Four. Also in the running are Morgan Dunn, who is managing director of a rural health care service provider; investment manager Perry Parker; and education consultant Katherine Tate, though it's not clear if they have the resources or connections to run serious races yet. If Doty, Dunn, or Tate won this seat, they'd be the first woman to ever represent Mississippi in Congress.
● PA-02: Former Philadelphia City Councilor Bill Green reportedly has been eyeing a primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle in this safely blue seat. On Thursday, Green acknowledged to the local NPR affiliate WHYY that petitions to get him on the ballot were circulating, though he refused to say anything more. Minister and former bank executive Michele Lawrence is already challenging Boyle in the May primary.
Green (or more precisely, William Green IV) is the son of William Green III, who served as mayor from 1980 to 1984, and the younger Green held a citywide council seat as a Democrat from 2008 to 2014. However, Green does have some big red flags. Green was appointed by GOP Gov. Tom Corbett to chair of the state-imposed Philadelphia School Reform Commission, where he approved the expansion of charter schools. Green was removed from that post by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, and months later, Green began eyeing a run for mayor as an independent. Green ended up passing and talking about forming his own party with Sam Katz, a former Republican who almost won the mayor's office in 1999, as a vehicle to run for the City Council, but the idea never went anywhere.
Green switched his party registration from independent back to Democratic late last month just as rumors began circulating that he was interested in challenging Boyle. The congressman's old 13th District was split by redistricting, and because Boyle only represents about half of the new 2nd District, he could be vulnerable. Boyle also does have some enemies in Philadelphia politics that may want to go after him now. The congressman's brother, state Rep. Kevin Boyle, narrowly lost a 2016 state Senate primary to eventual winner John Sabatina, and some of Sabatina's allies appear interested in Green. (Sabatina himself says he considered running, but won't.)
However, Boyle is close to the building trades unions, and they won't want to lose him. Green also angered teachers' unions during his time leading the School Reform Commission. Boyle also ended 2017 with a $765,000 war chest, and any rivals would need to organize quickly before the May primary.
● PA-05: Former Philadelphia Deputy Mayor Rich Lazer, a key ally of Mayor Jim Kenney and local labor groups, had planned to seek the Democratic nomination for retiring Rep. Bob Brady's old 1st District, but redistricting essentially eliminated that district from the map. But Lazer soon expressed interest in seeking the new 5th District, a 63-34 Clinton seat that is dominated by Delaware County but includes a slice of Philadelphia, and his Twitter account now identifies him as a candidate there.
There are a multitude of Democrats running in the May primary, and Lazer isn't even the only one from Philly. However, Lazer does have some prominent allies. Last month, the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote that the well-funded Electricians union was "expected" to back him.
● PA-07: On Friday, GOP state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie announced he was ending his campaign for this open Lehigh Valley seat. Mackenzie said he was dropping out because the new map changed the boundaries of the old 15th District, where he had been running since the fall. Still Mackenzie's home is still in the new 7th District, so it's not like redistricting forced him out. Right now, the only noteworthy Republican who is seeking this new 49-48 Clinton seat is Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein.
● PA-08: Former federal prosecutor Joe Peters had been seeking the GOP nomination for the open and safely red old 11th District, but redistricting moved him into the new 12th District. But Peters quickly said he wouldn't challenge GOP Rep. Tom Marino and began eyeing neighboring seats, and he's announced that he's moved into the new 8th District and will challenge Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. This seat, which includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, swung from 55-43 Obama to 53-44 Trump, and Cartwright could be vulnerable.
However, Peters needs to get past wealthy former JP Morgan managing director John Chrin in the May primary before he can take on Cartwright. Chrin's home was moved into the neighboring new 7th District, but he announced he would continue his bid against Cartwright. The good news for Peters is that he has more ties to the new 8th than Chrin: While most of Chrin's family roots are in the new 7th, Peters is a Scranton native and a former officer on its police force. The bad news for Peters is that Chrin, who has mostly been self-funding his campaign, has far more cash than he does. At the end of December, Chrin had $915,000 on-hand, while Peters only opened his fundraising account in January.
Peters has run for statewide office twice. Back in 2004, Peters lost the general election for state auditor 52-45. After the 2012 election, Peters was brought on to serve as Democratic Attorney General Kathleen Kane's communications director. Peters resigned in 2014 after a report broke alleging that Kane had put a stop to a sting operation. Peters later was a witness in the investigation into grand jury leaks that ultimately led to Kane's indictment. Kane ended up not seeking a second term (and was later sentenced to 10 to 23 months in jail) and Peters ran in the GOP primary to succeed her, but he lost 64-36. However, Peters did well in this area while losing everywhere else.
● PA-09: Former state Revenue Secretary Dan Meuser is another Republican who had been running to succeed Rep. Lou Barletta in the old 11th District before redistricting sliced up that seat. Meuser was moved to Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright's new 8th District, but he announced at the end of February that he'd run for the new 9th instead.
The new 9th District, which includes the old coal mining areas northwest of the Philadelphia region, backed Romney 57-41 and Trump 65-31, and there's no incumbent running here (though Democrats would be delighted if Rep. Ryan Costello campaigned here instead of in the more competitive 6th District). In fact, there aren't many other Republicans running here at all right now. The only other Republican we know that's seeking this seat is Scott Uehlinger, a former CIA officer who has written columns for right-wing sites and hosts a podcast. But Uehlinger, who was running to succeed retiring Rep. Charlie Dent in the old 15th, had just $10,000 on-hand at the end of December, while Meuser had $471,000 to spend.
● PA-18 (special): We knew Democrat Conor Lamb was outraising Republican Rick Saccone, but this is still amazing. During the first seven weeks of 2018, Lamb raised $3.3 million, while Saccone took in $703,000. Lamb had $837,000 on-hand on Feb. 21 for the final weeks of the March 13 special election, while Saccone had $303,000.
Of course, GOP groups have been spending heavily to help Saccone in this 58-39 Trump seat. As we've written before, super PAC money doesn't buy as many ads as campaigns themselves. The reason is that super PACs need to spend far more money than campaigns to purchase ad time because FCC regulations give candidates—but not outside groups—discounted rates on TV and radio. However, Team Red seems determined to spend so much that they can make up for all the ads Saccone should have been able to buy himself for less money: As of the end of February, outside GOP groups outspent their Democratic counterparts $9 million to $800,000. And wouldn't you know it, the Congressional Leadership Fund has another spot out attacking Lamb as a lackey of national Democrats.
Saccone also will be getting some help in the final days of the race. Trump is scheduled to speak in Moon Township on March 10. While Trump is infamous for stumping for candidates just outside the district or state they're seeking to represent (remember his Florida rally for Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore last year?), Moon Township is in this district.
● VA-02: EMILY's List has endorsed Navy veteran Elaine Luria's campaign against GOP Rep. Scott Taylor. The DCCC has also backed Luria, and none of her June primary foes have many resources or name-recognition.
