The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
LEADING OFF
● MS-Sen: After months and months of dithering, Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel finally confirmed on Wednesday that he would challenge GOP Sen. Roger Wicker in the June GOP primary. One day before McDaniel made his announcement, however, Wicker received an endorsement from Donald Trump. Appointed Sen. Luther Strange's primary loss to Roy Moore in neighboring Alabama demonstrates that Trump's support isn't the only thing that matters in GOP politics, but it will make it tougher for McDaniel to portray himself as the conservative true believer running against a symbol of an out-of-touch Republican establishment the way he did against Sen. Thad Cochran in their nasty and tight 2014 campaign.
Campaign Action
McDaniel has made noises about challenging Wicker for close to a year, but he kept procrastinating on making a decision. It wasn't just indecision that kept McDaniel from moving ahead, though. Cochran has been in ill health for a while, and there's been plenty of speculation that he could step down this year. The Washington Post reports that McDaniel told Gov. Phil Bryant's team as far back as October that he was interested in being appointed to the seat if it opened up, something the governor had no interest in doing.
McDaniel could have also run for that seat if there were a special, but he seems to have decided that, with the March 1 candidate filing deadline almost here, he needed to finally jump in and face Wicker rather than keep waiting for a special that may never come. However, McDaniel said Wednesday that if Cochran does resign in the coming days, he wouldn't rule out dropping his bid against Wicker and running in the ensuing special election.
No matter what, McDaniel will need to start raising money from scratch. However, he does have some air support already. A group called Remember Mississippi was set up last year to help him, and thanks to donations from prominent GOP mega-donors Robert Mercer and Richard Uihlien, it had $850,000 in the bank at the end of the year. But Wicker, who was chair of the NRSC last cycle, won't lack the resources to fight back. Wicker also began airing TV ads this week.
Mississippi is a very red state, but especially after what happened in Alabama a few months ago, Democrats want to have a credible candidate running to take advantage of any opening. National Democrats have been courting state House Minority Leader David Baria to run ever since Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley turned them down, and on Wednesday, Baria confirmed he was in.
SENATE
● IN-Sen: Wealthy former state Rep. Mike Braun has had the airwaves to himself for months, but with just a little more than two months to go before the primary, Rep. Todd Rokita is joining him. Rokita's opening buy is small, with a total of $120,000 going to satellite and radio. The TV commercial ventures deep into the disturbing world of GOP politics, as the narrator declares that the "liberal elites disrespect our flag and the sacrifices of our soldiers," as shots of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and kneeling black NFL players flash by. The narrator continues, "They riot in our streets and attack our police," before Rokita comes on and pledged to "fight the politically correct politicians."
The ad comes a week after a Braun spot aired that demonized undocumented immigrants. Braun described how a man who had been twice deported killed Colts player Edwin Jackson and his driver Jeffrey Monroe while driving drunk. Monroe's widow called for Braun to remove his name and photo from the commercial, but it remains on YouTube unedited. Rep. Luke Messer has not aired any spots yet, but we can't say we're expecting him to respond to his primary rival's commercials with a call for decency in politics.
● TN-Sen: Rep. Marsha Blackburn is very much the frontrunner in the August GOP primary, but it looks like she'll have a well-funded opponent after all. Businessman Darrell Lynn told the Chattanooga Free Press he's in, and claims he can easily spend $5 million of his own money. However, it's not clear what argument Lynn will use against Blackburn, who is a favorite of far-right groups like the Club for Growth, and whom much of the GOP establishment is fine with as their nominee. It's also not clear if Lynn has any connections to state or national Republicans.
GUBERNATORIAL
● CA-Gov: Democratic Rep. Mark Takano, who represents Riverside in the House, threw his support behind state Treasurer John Chiang this week.
● HI-Gov: On Tuesday, former state Sen. Clayton Hee announced that he would join the August Democratic primary. Hee was last on the ballot in 2014, when he lost the primary for lieutenant governor 54-36 to appointed incumbent Shan Tsutsui. Hee has far less name recognition and intuitional support than Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who is Gov. David Ige's main primary opponent, and he'll need a whole lot to go right to give him a shot at victory.
Hee also has made some enemies throughout his time in politics. A 2011 Civil Beat article declared, "Some of the words used to describe the senator will not be printed here. Others will: smart, hard-working, persistent, principled and loyal, for example, but also aggressive, intimidating, egotistical, quick to anger and bipolar." However, there is one group of voters that Hee may be able to appeal to.
Elections in Honolulu often turn into battles between supporters and opponents of the island's very expensive and controversial rail project, and Hee is firmly alighted with rail opponents. Hee called the project "grossly mismanaged," and he took issue with the legislature's decision last year to use a portion of the state's hotel tax (including money from other islands) to fund it. By contrast, Ige signed that bill into law, while Civil Beat notes that Hanabusa helped forge a compromise that got the legislature to keep funding the project.
Until now, this race has looked like a straight up battle between people who think that Ige deserves a second term despite some big missteps, and those who agree with Hanabusa that Hawaii desperately needs stronger leadership. But if Hee can make rail an issue, he could complicate things. And if Hee also can split the anti-incumbent vote with Hanabusa, it could give Ige, whose re-election prospects look very dicey, a shot in the arm.
● IL-Gov: Southern Illinois University is the first nonpartisan pollster to take a look at GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner's prospects in the general election, and they don't give him any good news. Rauner trails venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, whom the governor has been airing ads against for months, by a 50-35 margin, while state Sen. Daniel Biss leads the Republican by an almost-identical 48-34. Businessman Chris Kennedy wasn't tested against Rauner. The only other poll we've seen of the general election was a February PPP survey for Biss' campaign that found him beating Rauner 47-30, while Pritzker led "just" 48-35.
SIU also took a look at the March 20 Democratic primary, and they gave Pritzker a 31-21 lead over Biss, with Kennedy at 17. This result isn't all that different from surveys released from Pritzker and Biss' campaigns last week. The Global Strategy Group poll for Pritzker found him taking first with 37 percent, while Kennedy edged Biss 23-21 for second; Biss responded with an ALG Research poll showing Pritzker leading with 32 percent, and Biss and Kennedy tied with 24 percent apiece. SIU also tested the GOP primary, but that poll samples fewer than the 300-person minimum we require to make it into the Digest.
In any case, Rauner is continuing with the strategy he's been implementing for months and acting like Pritzker is already the Democratic nominee. Rauner is out with yet another ad tying Pritzker to disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagovich, and this time, he makes use of recently released 2008 audio of Pritzker advising Blago about who might be the "least offensive" qualified African-American to appoint to Barack Obama's Senate seat. Pritzker himself is out with a new Spanish-language ad staring Rep. Luis Gutierrez.
● MD-Gov: Candidate filing closed on Tuesday for Maryland's June 26 primary, and the state has a list of candidates available here. There are all sorts of caveats to watch out for as each state's filing deadline passes, which we round up here.
Larry Hogan's surprise 2014 win made him just the second Republican to win a governor's race in decades, and Democrats are hoping that, like Bob Ehrlich, he'll be a one-termer. A recent poll from Goucher College underscored both party's challenges in this very blue state: Hogan posted a strong 61-18 approval rating among state residents, but they only say he deserves to be re-elected by a 47-43 margin. (Note that this poll was of residents, not voters.)
Several Democrats are hoping that Trump's unpopularity and Maryland's strong Democratic leanings will drag Hogan down, and a number of candidates are running to try to unseat him. Rushern Baker, the county executive of Prince George's in the Washington suburbs, has led in the few primary polls we've seen, though most voters are undecided. Former NAACP head Ben Jealous, who has Bernie Sanders' endorsement, and Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz also seem to have some early support.
Tech entrepreneur Alec Ross and prominent attorney Jim Shea don't have much name recognition, but they have the resources to change that. Former Michelle Obama staffer Krish Vignarajah may also benefit from being the only woman in the race. State Sen. Richard Madaleno is also in, but he's struggled with fundraising so far.
● MI-Gov: Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has spent months trying to search for another Democrat to oppose frontrunner Gretchen Whitmer in the primary, so it was quite a surprise when Duggan endorsed her on Wednesday. As recently as January, Duggan and his allies were reportedly uncomfortable with the idea of having Whitmer as Team Blue's nominee, though it was never clear exactly why. However, it seems that Duggan has either had his doubts about Whitmer assuaged, or he's just given up on trying to find another candidate and decided that the other two major Democrats in the race, former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed and businessman Shri Thanedar, aren't good alternatives.
● NH-Gov: This week, former state Sen. Molly Kelly formed an exploratory committee for a possible run for the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Gov. Chris Sununu. Kelly's advisory committee included former state Attorney General Joseph Foster, whom some Democrats wanted to challenge Sununu last year, and former state House Speaker Terie Norelli. The only noteworthy declared Democrat is Steve Marchand, a former Portsmouth mayor who took second place in the 2016 primary.
● NM-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research is out with a poll of the June Democratic primary for Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, and they give her a massive 72-13 lead over businessman Jeff Apodaca, while state Sen. Joe Cervantes takes 6. Four months ago, GQR also released a poll for The Majority Institute (formerly known as Project New America) that gave Lujan Grisham a similar 75-10 lead over Apodaca, and no one else has released any data. Lujan Grisham also received an endorsement from the American Federation of Teachers New Mexico this week.
HOUSE
● AZ-08: Hey! Ho! Lesko! On Tuesday, former state Sen. Debbie Lesko decisively won the GOP primary for the April 24 special election to succeed scandal-tarred ex-Rep. Trent Franks. Lesko took first place with 36 percent of the vote, while former state Rep. Phil Lovas and former state Sen. Steve Montenegro each grabbed 24 percent. Former state Corporation Commissioner Bob Stump, who raised and spent very little money (and listed his address as in Utah, for some reason), barely registered with just 5 percent. This suburban Phoenix seat backed Trump 58-37, but it's been an unpredictable special election season, and physician and Democratic nominee Hiral Tipirneni is worth keeping an eye on.
This contest started and ended with scandal. Franks suddenly resigned in December, and the public soon learned that he had, astonishingly, asked two female staffers to bear his children, and even offered to pay them $5 million to do so. But Franks didn't stay out the spotlight for long, and within days, he endorsed Montenegro, who used to work for him. Montenegro also resigned from the state Senate to run, a move he probably regrets now. Lesko also left the Senate to run for this seat, even though she was in line to lead the chamber, and she picked up an endorsement from former Gov. Jan Brewer. Lovas also gave up his post at the national Small Business Association to run.
Things went off the rails a week from Election Day when the local NBC affiliate got hold of a series of flirtatious text messages sent between a cell phone associated with Montenegro and a legislative staffer. Among other things, the staffer sent Montenegro, who is married and a church minister, a topless photo of herself, which didn't seem to bother him in the least. Montenegro initially blasted the story as "a despicable example of … tabloid trash," but admitted days later that the conversations were genuine, though he still insisted that he "did not have any inappropriate relationships with this woman." The story broke well into early voting, and GOP leaders feared that Montenegro could still win the primary and jeopardize their hold on what should be a safe seat.
That wasn't the only strange controversy of the race. Lovas also accused Lesko of improperly funneling $50,000 from her state Senate campaign account to a supportive super PAC—which is supposed to operate independently of her congressional campaign. Lesko responded by threatening to sue Lovas. Meanwhile, Bob Stump faced some controversy over his name. The widow of the late Rep. Bob Stump, who is not related to the candidate, accused the former commissioner (who was born Christopher Robert Stump) of using the name Bob Stump to try and benefit from her husband's legacy. The candidate denied it, and judging by his anemic showing on Tuesday, voters weren't confused about which Bob Stump was which.
● CA-45: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee is out with a poll from PPP that takes a look at both the June top-two primary and two hypothetical general election matchups. They find GOP Rep. Mimi Walters leading in the primary with 42 percent, while Katie Porter, whom they've endorsed, leads fellow UC Irvine professor Dave Min 16-12 for the second general election spot. Former Senate aide Kia Hamadanchy takes 6, while former Obama administration technology adviser Brian Forde takes 4.
Note that this poll doesn't include Republican Greg Raths, who has taken some substantial support in his past bids against Walters and may be able to reach the general election with her this time. Raths set up an exploratory committee in January, but hasn't said anything since. The filing deadline is March 9, so we won't need to wait long to find out if he's in.
In a hypothetical general election with Walters, Porter leads 46-44. That's almost the same as Min's 45-44 edge against Walters.
● CA-49: Welp, so much for that plan. With the assistance of the SEIU, it had looked as though Marine veteran Doug Applegate was planning to drop his second bid for Congress and instead seek an open seat on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, a move that would have helped Democrats mitigate the risk of a top-two lockout in the 49th District and also given Applegate an easier path to elective office.
However, when the story first broke, there was one serious potential problem: It appeared that Applegate had missed the deadline to move into the board district he wanted to run for by just two days. But was there some sort of loophole, some detail that had been overlooked? Apparently not. According to San Diego Union-Tribune columnist Michael Smolens, Applegate is "staying put" as a result of the snafu. Applegate himself still has yet to say anything on the record, but if this whole enterprise has indeed been for naught, we wouldn't expect him to want to discuss it publicly.
● FL-06: On Wednesday, EMILY's List added former deputy National Security Advisor Nancy Soderberg to its long roster of House endorsees for the 2018 elections. Soderberg is running in a difficult district along Florida's northeast coast in the in the Daytona area, but she's raised decent money so far, and the seat recently became open when GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis announced a bid for governor. The district voted 57-40 for Trump, but it was much closer in 2012, when Mitt Romney won it 52-47, and we've seen a lot of areas like this snap back toward Democrats in special elections over the last year.
● IL-13: Fundraising consultant Betsy Dirksen Londrigan is out with another spot ahead of the March 20 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Rodney Davis. The ad emphasizes healthcare and tells the audience that Londrigan's son almost died as a child from a rare infection.
● MD-01: This seat, which includes Baltimore's conservative suburbs and the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, backed Trump 62-33, and GOP Rep. Andy Harris is likely safe. Still, Democrat Jesse Colvin, an Army veteran and business consultant, brought in an impressive $219,000 during the final quarter of 2017, and he ended 2017 with $186,000 in the bank. Harris, who had $1.1 million on-hand, won't lack resources, but it's always good to field strong candidates in tough seats in case the unexpected happens.
● MD-06: This is the only open congressional district in the state, since Democratic Rep. John Delaney is running for president for some reason. Clinton won this district, which stretches from Montgomery County in the Washington suburbs into western Maryland, 55-40, and the winner of the Democratic primary will likely keep it blue without too much trouble.
However, it's going to be a very expensive primary. David Trone, the co-founder of the liquor store giant Total Wine & More, spent a record-breaking $13 million of his own money in 2016 in the Democratic primary for the neighboring 8th District, only to lose to now-Rep. Jamie Raskin 34-27. Trone is trying his luck here, and he doesn't seem interested in shifting his strategy. Trone had donated $2.2 million to his campaign by Dec. 31, and he started running ads in the fall.
Once again, Trone doesn't have the primary to himself. Del. Aruna Miller began raising money months before Delaney decided to retire, and she's secured the endorsements of EMILY's List and Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett. Miller, who would be one of the most prominent Indian-American women in politics if she won, ended the year with $752,000 on-hand. While she's not going to outspend Trone's bottomless pockets, she'll have the resources to get her name out.
Emergency-room pediatrician Nadia Hashimi had a considerably smaller $349,000 war chest, but she does have an unusual background that could help her stand out. She was born in the U.S. to immigrant parents who left Afghanistan a few years before the Soviets invaded in 1979, and her husband is also an Afghan immigrant who left the country as a teenager amid the end of the Soviet occupation. Hashimi has capitalized on her family's story to become a best-selling novelist whose stories are set in Afghanistan and detail the experiences of immigrants and refugees, particularly women. State Sen. Roger Manno is also in, but he's had trouble raising money for this very pricey contest. Four other Democrats are also seeking the nod, but none of them look like they have much name recognition or resources.
On the GOP side, former Army Department official and 2016 nominee Amie Hoeber faces only a few little-known opponents. Hoeber lost to Delaney 56-40 last cycle last time, and her fundraising has not been good. But last time, Qualcomm senior executive Mark Epstein (who just happens to be her husband) was the primary donor to a super PAC that spent $3.1 million on her behalf, and he may be able to give her some more air support again.
● MN-08: To the relief of the NRCC, rich guy Stewart Mills has once again announced that he won't run for this open seat. Mills was Team Red's nominee in 2014 and 2016 against Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan, and he lost tight races despite some favorable political headwinds. Mills said last year that he wouldn't challenge Nolan for the third time, but he did it by authoring a long Facebook note railing against the NRCC for supposedly abandoning him last year in his hour of need.
Mills began to reconsider his plans after Nolan announced he would retire a few weeks ago, but he said on Tuesday that he "finished my review of (the) data and completed other due diligence last night and have decided not to run." St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber has been running for months, and he's unlikely to face any serious intra-party opposition.
● NJ-11: While trucking company executive Jerry Langer spent a month mulling a bid for the GOP nod in this open seat, David Wildstein reports that he's decided to sit this one out.
● PA-01: This week, the Bucks County Democratic committee endorsed wealthy attorney and philanthropist Scott Wallace in the May primary to take on GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Wallace previously picked up support from all the elected Democrats serving in the county government. Bucks makes up about 90 percent of this swing seat (the balance is in Montgomery), so if Wallace does well there in the primary, he'd be almost impossible to stop. Navy veteran and JAG attorney Rachel Reddick and environmentalist Steve Bacher are also seeking the Democratic nomination for this 49-47 Clinton seat.
● PA-05: Two more Democrats who were planning to run to succeed retiring Rep. Bob Brady in the old 1st District have announced that they'll seek the new 5th District. Financial planner Lindy Li ended 2017 with $181,000 in cash left over from her failed campaign for a suburban Philadelphia seat last cycle, so she could have a head start over some of her many primary rivals. But Li lives in Philadelphia, which only makes up about 16 percent of this 63-34 Clinton seat; about 80 percent of this seat is in Delaware County, while the balance is in Montgomery. Geography could help Chester Mayor Thaddeus Kirkland, whose entire 34,000-person city is in Delaware County. Kirkland served for 12 terms in the state House before successfully unseating an incumbent in the 2015 primary.
● PA-10, PA-11: On Wednesday morning, Democrat Christina Hartman announced that she would run for Pennsylvania's new 10th District, after withdrawing from the race for the new 11th District the previous night. The 11th was the logical successor to the old 16th, which Hartman had previously been seeking, but running there presented two problems.
First, Hartman, who ran in the 16th in 2016, faced a primary with fellow Democrat Jess King, who opted to continue on in the 11th and earned the unanimous endorsement of the Lancaster County Democratic Party following Hartman's departure. Lancaster still makes up the vast majority of the new 11th, but not quite as much as it did of the old 16th, and therein lies the second problem: The 11th, alone among GOP-held districts that Democrats were targeting Pennsylvania, was made redder by the state's new map—considerably so.
Indeed, the 11th voted for Donald Trump by a punishing 61-35 margin, according to new calculations from Daily Kos Elections, versus a still-difficult but considerably less daunting 51-44 Trump win in the old 16th. That leaves King, who is hoping to unseat freshman GOP Rep. Lloyd Smucker, with a very tall task on her hands.
Hartman, meanwhile, now finds herself in a district with presidential numbers not too different from those of the old 16th: Trump carried the new 10th 52-43. The new difficulty for Hartman, however, is that the new 10th, which is represented by GOP Rep. Scott Perry and is centered around the state capital of Harrisburg, shares no territory whatsoever with the old 16th, so that will open her up to charges of carpetbagging. However, she has now moved into the 10th, which is demographically fairly similar to the 16th, and local Democrats are apt treat Hartman's decision kindly: Their strongest potential candidate, state Auditor Eugene DePasquale, just took a pass on the race, and no one else has expressed any interest.
Hartman will of course face a difficult battle, but the good news is that, prior to redistricting, Perry would have gotten off without a serious challenge whatsoever (his old 4th District voted 59-37 for Trump). And given Democratic enthusiasm, boosted by excitement over the Keystone State's new map, Hartman has a shot at pulling off an upset.
● PA-18 (special): The March 13 special election for Pennsylvania's vacant 18th District is staying hot until the very end. Not only do various polling breadcrumbs point to a close race, but Republicans are spending like they're very, very worried. America First Action, a Trump-aligned super PAC, just threw down a giant $830,000 on TV ads slamming Democrat Conor Lamb, while the NRCC is reportedly spending another $500,000, on top of the extraordinary $3 million they've already burned through.
Meanwhile, the Democratic group Patriot Majority says it will spend another $250,000 on TV and digital ads. However, according to FEC data, outside Democratic groups are getting outspent by more than a 10-to-1 ratio: Republicans have spent at least $9 million while Democratic organizations have spent just $800,000. (These figures may not include media reports about the most recent round of expenditures, though the overall proportion won't shift much.)
But there's good news in this nevertheless: Lamb himself has reportedly raised an enormous $3.2 million in the first seven weeks of the year, and as savvy political observers know, candidates are entitled to much more favorable advertising rates than third-party groups. That's a big part of why the GOP has had to spend so much more. Republican Rick Saccone, meanwhile, hasn't yet released his pre-primary fundraising totals, but his track record when it comes to bringing in the bucks is truly abysmal—yet another reason super PACs and outside organizations are finding themselves forced to make up the gap.
And so that this point isn't lost, we'll repeat it once more: This is yet another race that should never, ever have been close. Not only did Donald Trump win this district 58-39, but Democrats didn't even field a candidate here in either 2014 or 2016. Nevertheless, the GOP finds itself playing defense in a district where it should be sleepwalking.
● TX-07: Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, who's been getting a lot of help from EMILY's List in her quest to win the Democratic nomination for Texas' 7th Congressional District, is airing her first broadcast TV ad of the race, and it emphasizes a theme that fits right in with EMILY's mission. In the spot, Fletcher recounts how she joined activists to physically link arms in order to keep a Planned Parenthood clinic open when "anti-choice activists" tried to shut it down, then "launched Planned Parenthood Young Leaders, getting the next generation involved."
LEGISLATIVE
● Special Elections: Tuesday night was a HUGE night on the special election front for Democrats, who flipped not one but two GOP-held seats:
Connecticut HD-120: This was a pickup for the Democrats, and boy was it a big one. Philip Young defeated Republican Bill Cabral by a 51-49 margin, in a seat that Republicans have held continuously for the last 44 years. What's more, thanks to Gov. Dan Malloy's deep unpopularity, Connecticut has defied the nationwide trend of strong Democratic performances in special elections, so this victory is particularly notable, especially since Republicans have been eager to try to capture the state House this fall. Now Team Blue has a bit more breathing room with an 80-71 margin in the chamber.
Kentucky HD-89: Republicans held on to this one, with Robert Goforth defeating Democrat Kelly Smith by a 67-33 margin. However, this seat voted 79-17 for Donald Trump in 2016 and 77-21 for Mitt Romney in 2012, and Democrats hadn't even contested it in four of the last five regular elections, so this was still a considerable overperformance.
New Hampshire House, Belknap-3: Democrats picked up this seat as well. Philip Spagnuolo defeated Republican Les Cartier by a 54-46 margin, making him the second Philip to flip a district in one night. That also makes this the fifth seat in the 400-member New Hampshire House that Democrats have taken from the GOP this cycle.
That brings us to 39 total D → R legislative flips in the Trump era (plus Doug Jones' monster win in Alabama!), versus just four in the opposite direction. Overall, Democrats are outperforming the 2016 presidential results by a huge 13 percent in that timeframe and a gigantic 26 percent in 2018 alone. (Compared to 2012, it's 8 percent overall and 13 percent this year.) As always, you can keep track of all legislative special elections by bookmarking our Big Board.