The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● ME-Gov: A huge mess is unfolding in Maine, after Secretary of State Matt Dunlap told legislators on Thursday that the state could not conduct its June primaries using instant-runoff voting (IRV) due to a legal issue first pointed out by the state attorney general's office. Confusingly, though, Dunlap later said his department would nevertheless proceed with implementing the new system, which was passed by voters in 2016, claiming that election officials "do not have time to do anything else."
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The legal dispute is highly arcane but it leaves the state in a precarious position. Both Dunlap and state Attorney General Janet Mills, who is a candidate for governor, urged the legislature to correct the problem, but that's simply not going to happen, since Republicans and a number of Democrats are opposed to IRV.
That means the issue is headed to court, though it could play a role on the campaign trail, too: One of Mills' opponents in the Democratic primary, former state House Speaker Mark Eves, accused her office of trying "to veto the will of the people in a way that benefits the electoral prospects of the Attorney General."
Under Maine's traditional system of awarding nominations to the candidate who wins a plurality of the vote, Mills might indeed prosper, since she likely starts the race with the greatest name recognition. In response to Eves' charges, Mills released a memo dated last year "laying out the process" for establishing an "ethical wall" between herself and her office's elections department. It's not clear from the Portland Press-Herald's writeup, though, whether this wall was ever put in place.
Senate
● MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester speaks to the camera in his new ad and says that if some D.C. bureaucrat "stands in the way of Montana, I let him have it." He then declares he's "wired to fight anyone who isn't doing their job for us," and concludes, "you're damned right I approve this message."
● VA-Sen: On Thursday evening, retired Army Major Gen. Bert Mizusawa announced that he had not collected enough signatures to make the June GOP primary ballot. A few other Republicans are running against Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, but Team Red not only is pessimistic about winning, they're afraid their eventual nominee could drag down the whole ticket. We'll have more to say about this race when we take a look at candidate filing in a future Digest.
● WV-Sen: The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC is up with a six-figure TV buy praising Sen. Joe Manchin for voting "pure West Virginia" instead of red or blue. They extol him for "buck[ing] both parties to remain the independent voice of an independent state."
Gubernatorial
● AZ-Gov: On behalf of state Sen. Steve Farley, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research is out with a general election survey that was concluded in early March that shows him trailing GOP Gov. Doug Ducey 49-44. The memo doesn't include general election numbers for Arizona State University professor David Garcia, who is Farley's opponent in the late August primary, nor does it include a primary matchup.
Garcia released a poll in January showing both Democrats in tight races with Ducey, while Garcia led Farley 43-22. There have been no other polls this year. However, the Republican Governors Association reserved $3.4 million in fall TV time back in February, which could be a sign that they also see numbers that show that Ducey is vulnerable.
● FL-Gov: Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine is out with yet another ad ahead of this August Democratic primary. A bit oddly (at least to anyone who has lived in the Boston area), the spot begins with some stock footage of Coolidge Corner in Brookline, Massachusetts, as the narrator says Levine grew up a "working class neighborhood." We're not sure what Coolidge Corner was like when Levine was a kid, but it's a now very affluent area that no one would characterize as working class: There's even a Trader Joe's in the shot.
The ad continues by saying Levine believes that everyone deserves the same chance he had. The narrator touts his business background and work as mayor fighting climate change, passing a living wage law, and having passed a resolution to ban assault weapons.
● HI-Gov: It's no secret that plenty of prominent Hawaii Democrats are backing Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's primary bid against Gov. David Ige, and four powerful legislators have now publicly come out for her. Senate President Ron Kouchi, House Speaker Scott Saiki, and the Senate Ways and Means and House Finance Committee chairs have all signed onto a fundraising letter for Hanabusa, which also criticizes Ige's leadership. Ige served with all four of them in the legislature before he was governor, but as we noted before, he's always struggled to find allies. The only poll that's been released was a Mason-Dixon survey that showed Hanabusa up 47-27.
● ID-Gov: Tommy Ahlquist, a wealthy physician and developer, has a new spot that targets both his rivals in the May 15 primary, but he trains most of his fire on Lt. Gov. Brad Little. The narrator first argues that Little tried to raise taxes "while helping himself to a 22 percent taxpayer-funded pay raise," and also took advantage of a loophole that gave him another $10,000 in per-diem pay. The ad goes easier on Rep. Raul Labrador and only features him on screen with Little as the narrator says their combined 29 years in office is enough. The second half of the ad praises Ahlquist for pushing for term-limits and cuts to wasteful spending.
● OH-Gov: Both Republicans are out with a new negative ad apiece ahead of the May 8 primary. Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor's spot hits Attorney General Mike DeWine for voting for what the narrator calls "the largest amnesty in American history." The ad doesn't go into details, probably because the sin DeWine committed was voting for the immigration bill signed by Ronald Reagan. But the narrator isn't so reluctant to name names when he says that in 2006, then-Sen. DeWine "voted with Obama and Hillary for an even bigger amnesty." It then accuses him of having "supported tax-payer funded benefits for illegals, even giving them Ohio drivers licenses."
DeWine's team hits right back with their own spot. The narrator declares that Taylor is lying and argues that "the press calls her attacks on Mike DeWine 'false' and 'misleading.'" Wait, a Republican ad citing the press to make its case instead of just yelling "fake news!!!!"? Have we traveled through a time warp? Apparently not: The ad then says DeWine really "cracked down on illegal immigration, and supports President Trump's border wall," and says how great he is on fighting abortion and supporting conservative judges.
House
● CA-04: National security expert Jessica Morse received some bad news after the state certified its list of candidates and won't identify her with any sort of ballot designation in the June top-two primary. As we've written before, candidates in California can choose a three-word description, known as the ballot designation that appears below their name and party on the ballot.
According to Around the Capitol's Scott Lay, Morse submitted her three proposed designations, and secretary of state created a modified version identifying her as a "National Security Fellow." But former State Department officer Regina Bateson, who is Morse's main Democratic opponent in the contest to take on GOP Rep. Tom McClintock, challenged that description in court.
Bateson's team argued that Morse hadn't worked in the national security field since 2015, so it was improper for her to identify herself this way on the ballot. And on Thursday, the state released its certified list of candidates, which identifies Bateson's ballot designation as "Military Security Analyst" and says Morse has "No Ballot Designation."
This may seem trivial, but this is something that could matter. Morse had a large financial edge over Bateson at the end of December, and she also has the support of the state party, so she does appear to be the Democratic frontrunner. However, it's very possible that her lack of a ballot designation could cost her some votes from people who don't have a strong preference when they go to vote. There are a total of four Democrats and two Republicans on the ballot in this 54-39 Trump seat, and it's possible that McClintock and his little-known intra-party rival Mitchell White could advance if the smaller blue vote is split enough.
● CT-05: Late on Thursday, the Connecticut Post reported that Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty had kept her former chief of staff, Tony Baker, on her staff for three months after learning that another former aide had accused Baker of punching and sexually harassing her and had obtained a restraining order against him. When Baker finally left, Esty paid him a $5,000 severance using taxpayer funds, wrote a job recommendation for him, and even signed a non-disclosure agreement barring her from disparaging him or discussing the reasons for his departure.
The accuser, Anna Kain, has gone public with her allegations, and says that she dated Baker in 2014. She provided a voicemail Baker left her two years ago to the Washington Post in which Baker berated her, "You better fucking reply to me or I will fucking kill you." Kain added, "I was 24 and doing a job that I believed in for an institution I was proud to be a part of. But I was being severely abused and had nowhere to turn. Nobody talked about things like this. I was suffering and thought it was weakness."
In response, Esty said her handling of the matter "was not good enough" and said she plans to reimburse the Treasury for Baker's $5,000 severance. As for her electoral future, Esty said, "I want to be clear that I am not resigning," adding, "I have important work to do in Congress including building on the lessons of this horrible series of events." Nevertheless, some Connecticut Democrats have already begun calling for her to step down, and they include state Senate leader Martin Looney.
While Esty only narrowly won her first term in 2012, she's won each subsequent cycle by progressively larger margins and has not drawn a serious Republican opponent this cycle, though she was named to the DCCC's "Frontline" program for vulnerable incumbents last year. Esty's district, which is located in Connecticut's northwest corner, went for Hillary Clinton by a 50-46 margin in 2016, though it backed Barack Obama by a larger 54-45 spread four years earlier. The filing deadline is not until June, so there's still time for a challenger to emerge.
● MA-03: State Sen. Barbara L'Italien is out with a poll from EMC Research giving her the lead in the September Democratic primary for this open seat. L'Italien edges Daniel Koh, a former chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, 19-8, while three other candidates each take 5 percent or less. But as we've noted before, many of the candidates are incredibly well-funded, especially Koh, and they'll have more than enough resources to boost their name recognition over the next few months.
● NE-02: The state AFL-CIO has endorsed former Rep. Brad Ashford over nonprofit head Kara Eastman in the May 15 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Don Bacon.
● NY-25: On Friday, Rochester City Councilor Adam McFadden announced he would run in the June Democratic primary. McFadden, who was first elected in 2003, is also executive director of a nonprofit that provides after school programs for local urban youth.
● PA-06: Republican Rep. Ryan Costello's recent decision to bail on re-election left his party in a tough position, but the GOP might not be foreclosing the option of waging a write-in campaign to prevent little-known attorney Greg McCauley from winning the primary by default. The Philadelphia Inquirer recently reported that party insiders had talked up businesswoman Amber Little-Turner, who is currently running for a state House seat. However, Little-Turner only said she isn't thinking of running for Congress "as of right now," which isn't a "no."
Even if Republicans find a strong contender who is willing to run a write-in campaign, winning the nomination could be difficult with only McCauley's name on the ballot. And of course, any Republican nominee is likely to have a hard time defending this 53-43 Clinton seat without the benefit of incumbency.
● PA-07: Earlier in March, Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli picked up an endorsement from the Lehigh Valley Building Trades, which is made up of 21 local unions, in the May 15 Democratic primary for this open swing seat. The other major labor group that has taken sides is the state SEIU, which is for pastor Greg Edwards.