The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MN-Gov: On Thursday, Republican Tim Pawlenty kicked off his long-awaited bid to reclaim his old job as governor of Minnesota. Influential Republicans reportedly were unhappy with their choices in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton, and they urged Pawlenty to come back and run. However, Pawlenty doesn't quite have the GOP nomination sewn up. Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who lost the 2014 general election to Dayton 50-45, has made it clear he won't be dropping out.
Campaign Action
Johnson also threw down the gauntlet this week and declared that "Pawlenty has never gotten over 46 percent of the vote in a statewide election, even after four years of being governor, and that was before a controversial second term, before he made $10 million as a Washington, D.C. lobbyist, and he publicly trashed Donald Trump a month before Election Day," adding, "He's the last person Republicans should want at the top of the ticket in 2018." Woodbury Mayor Mary Giuliani Stephens and former state GOP Chairman Keith Downey are also in, but they haven't gained much traction.
The primary isn't until August, but there's one key question for the Pawlenty campaign first. The state party convention will be held in June, and he has not yet said if he'll compete there. Johnson did well at the non-binding straw poll in February (Pawlenty's name was not on the ballot), and he may very well be able to embarrass the former governor if they both compete there.
Winning the endorsement is not the same thing as winning the nomination, but many voters take it very seriously, so Johnson could get a big boost if he claims it regardless of whether Pawlenty competes for it or not. But Johnson has had trouble raising money, and he'll still have a tough time competing with the well-known and very-well connected former governor in August.
Pawlenty may be the strongest general election option for the GOP, but he's not without his vulnerabilities. Pawlenty only recently left his job in DC as a lobbyist for banks, so expect Team Blue to portray him as a guy who left his Midwestern home behind to become a tool of greedy Washington interests: The GOP notably deployed this very same strategy against Democrat Evan Bayh in last cycle's Indiana Senate race. Democrats will also argue that Pawlenty, who retired in 2010 shortly before kicking off a failed presidential run, left the state in bad shape.
P.S. While Pawlenty spent months preparing for this campaign, he also spent 15 months claiming he was "politically retired" whenever anyone asked him about his interest in another campaign, something many observers misinterpreted as him saying he wouldn't run.
We here at Daily Kos Elections are famously nit-picky when looking at what politicians say when they're asked about a campaign for a new office (we can't count how many times we've written something like "That response wasn't quite a no"), and this is exactly why. It's a good reminder that politicians know how to make it clear to the world that they're not going to run for an office, and it's important not to take the "I'm politically retired" or "I have no plans to run" declarations at face value.
1Q Fundraising
● FL-18: Lauren Baer (D): $450,000 raised
● FL-27: Donna Shalala (D) $1.2 million raised (campaign would not say how much was self-funded)
● IL-12: Mike Bost (R-inc): $1.15 million cash-on-hand; Brendan Kelly (D): $580,000 raised, $950,000 cash-on-hand
● KS-03: Tom Niermann (D): $200,000 raised
● MI-11: Suneel Gupta (D) $420,000 raised; $630,000 cash-on-hand
● NH-01: Maura Sullivan (D): $475,000 raised
● NM-01: Deb Haaland (D): $296,000 raised, $345,000 cash-on-hand
● NY-19: Pat Ryan (D): $422,000 raised
● PA-04: Madeleine Dean (D): $410,000 raised (in five weeks), $390,000 cash-on-hand
● WA-03: Carolyn Long (D) $235,000 raised; David McDevitt (D) "at least" $406,000 cash-on-hand
Senate
● IN-Sen: Rep. Todd Rokita has run ads portraying fellow Rep. Luke Messer, one of his two rivals in the May 8 GOP Senate primary, as a "never-Trump lobbyist" and as a guy who "plotted with the 'Never Trumpers' to steal the nomination from President Trump," so … you probably know exactly where this is going. The Associated Press' Brian Slodysko dug up a February 2016 interview where Rokita, who was supporting Marco Rubio in the presidential primary, told local WXIN TV, "When you see Marco contrasted with Donald Trump — I mean someone who is vulgar, if not profane."
Rokita, who barely two years later is running commercials featuring him wearing a MAGA hat, adds, "At some point you have to be presidential. People expect that and you see that in Marco Rubio," though he did add at the time that he would back Trump if he was the nominee. Rokita's team is still trying to salvage their original line-of-attack and insisting that, while Messer still criticized Trump after he won the nomination, Rokita was "the only Republican who steadfastly supported Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton."
And indeed, Messer did indeed tell CNN in June of 2016, after it was clear that Trump would be the GOP nominee, "I don't believe Donald Trump's a racist, but he has made race-baiting comments." There's no word what the third GOP Senate candidate, wealthy former state Rep. Mike Braun, thought about Trump at the time.
We'll see if this story has any legs in what's become a nasty primary to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. Rokita and Messer are far from the only GOP politicians who began the 2016 cycle as Trump critics and morphed into Trump acolytes. Still, while all three candidates have made it clear that they back Trump, Rokita has hugged him the tightest, so he may have the most to lose if the base decides he's a phony or a hypocrite.
● MS-Sen-B: On Thursday, veteran GOP strategist Andy Taggart announced that he would stay out of this November's special election. Taggart, who was the 2016 state campaign chair for John Kasich, has criticized Trump and called for the state to remove the Confederate battle emblem from the state flag, so he never seemed to have much of an appeal to GOP voters here.
● TN-Sen: Middle Tennessee State University is out with a survey giving Democrat Phil Bredesen a 45-35 lead over GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn. Polling has been limited here, but that number definitely feels far too good to be true in this conservative state.
The Democratic firm PPP released a poll a few weeks ago for the progressive group Protect Our Care showing Bredesen up "just" 46-41, while an October poll for the DSCC showed him with an identical lead. By contrast, a February survey for a pro-Blackburn group gave her a 44-39 edge. We don't see numbers from MTSU often, so we also don't have a good sense for how accurate they are.
● WV-Sen: National Republicans have been fretting that disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship could win the May 8 primary and cost them a chance to beat Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, so Donald Trump came in to rescue them … from a certain point of view. Trump invited the other two major candidates, Rep. Evan Jenkins, and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, to appear with him at a Thursday event in White Sulphur Springs, and it didn't escape notice that he snubbed Blankenship.
Both Jenkins and Morrisey got to sit near Trump on stage, and they were even closer than Sen. Shelley Moore Capito and Gov. Jim Justice. Trump also introduced the two opponents, and they proceeded to give speeches saying how great he was. But because no Trump event can't go by without some awkwardness for the candidate or candidates he's ostensibly trying to help, he concluded his rally by asking the audience to applaud for the contender they preferred: There does not seem to have been a clear winner. Blankenship did not attend the event, nor did Trump mention him.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov, AK-AL: On Wednesday, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that allows independent candidates to compete in August party primaries. State law had required candidates to belong to the party whose nomination they were seeking, but the state Democratic Party successfully sued to overturn it.
The decision allows independent Gov. Bill Walker to run in the Democratic primary without joining Team Blue, though his campaign said this week that they're still studying the ruling as they decide what to do. Walker already has a tough re-election campaign ahead of him in this red state, and the GOP would be gleeful if they got to face both the governor and a Democrat in November. But if Walker can claim the Democratic nomination, he can once again run as the de facto Democratic candidate while still identifying as an independent the way he did in 2014.
However, there's no guarantee that Walker would win the Democratic primary if he runs there. Former Sen. Mark Begich has spent months talking about running for governor, and he could be very hard to beat if he goes for it. Some lesser-known Democrats have also discussed running, though no one has jumped in yet. The filing deadline isn't until June 1.
The state Supreme Court's decision also impacts the race to take on GOP Rep. Don Young. Back in January, Anchorage schools advocate Alyse Galvin announced she would run in the Democratic primary even she still identifies as an independent. No other noteworthy candidates have announced since then.
● CO-Gov: State Treasurer Walker Stapleton's super PAC Better Colorado Now has launched an opening $78,000 TV buy ahead of the June GOP primary. Their spot, which Colorado Politics says is running in the Colorado Springs area, praises Stapleton as a conservative who will "crack down on sanctuary cities; getting criminal illegal immigrants off our streets."
● CT-Gov: Former business executive Bob Stefanowski, who is one of the many Republicans seeking this open seat, has announced that he will skip next month's state party convention and will instead collect signatures to make it to the August ballot. The Courant writes that Stefanowski's decision did not go over well with party leaders, and state party chair J.R. Romano only offered a "Godspeed, Bob" in reaction to the candidate's letter to him explaining he was ducking the convention because the process favors party insiders. Stefanowski, who is wealthy, has already begun airing ads on TV.
● IA-Gov: Former Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett's quest for the GOP nomination came to an end on Thursday when a judge ruled that he indeed did not have enough valid petition signatures to make the primary ballot, and Corbett announced he wouldn't appeal the decision; Corbett also declared that he would not run as an independent. This leaves Gov. Kim Reynolds with no opposition in the June primary.
It's a strange end to a strange campaign. Corbett, a former speaker of the state House, was one of a few Republicans considering a to run for governor in the event that incumbent Terry Branstad retired in 2018. But Branstad instead was appointed to become Trump's ambassador to China, and Reynolds was elevated from lieutenant governor to the top spot. Reynolds scared off most Republicans, but while Corbett acknowledged from day one that she would be the favorite in a primary, he continued to express interest in running anyway and even decided not to seek re-election in 2017 as mayor of Iowa's second-largest city.
Corbett proceeded to spend much of the first half of 2017 flirting with a bid. He also annoyed plenty of observers, including us, when he teased a "big surprise" at the end of his final state of the city address in February. That "big surprise" turned out to be Corbett singing "Sweet Home Cedar Rapids," a tribute he wrote to the tune of "Sweet Home Chicago." Corbett finally announced he would run in June, but he never offered much of a case for why primary voters should oust Reynolds.
If Corbett had spent as much energy collecting signatures as he did coming up with ways to musically troll us, he probably would have at least made the ballot. But he only turned in 4,088 petitions, just 83 more than the bare minimum he needed. Conservative blogger Craig Robinson, who said he was a Reynolds supporter but claimed he wasn't acting on her behalf, argued that about 100 of Corbett's signatures were duplicates.
Iowa's State Objection Panel, which is made up of the state's auditor, attorney general, and secretary of state, agreed that several signatures were indeed invalid, leaving Corbett with eight fewer petitions than required. Corbett sued, arguing that eight names his campaign had crossed out with a Sharpie, which he said were otherwise valid signatures his staff had mistakenly struck through, should be counted. The judge did not agree, saying that he had "deleted those signatures from his nomination papers" and the panel was right not to count them. Corbett finally saw the writing on the wall (or in this case, the writing on the petition paper), and called it a campaign.
● MI-Gov: The super PAC Calley Continues Comeback Inc is up with a cable TV spot, and you'll never guess whom they support! They hit Attorney General Bill Schuette, who is Lt. Gov. Brian Calley's main rival in the August GOP primary, arguing he supported "the massive legislative pay raise" and collects "two massive government pensions, with two more on the way." It's pretty mundane stuff, but they spice it up by showing "Shady Bill Schuette" in a dark suit and sunglasses surrounded by massive piles of money, though it doesn't quite feel like a hidden "Breaking Bad" reference.
Calley himself has a positive ad that shows him running as he declares he was "the driving force behind historic tax cuts."
● NH-Gov: Unnamed sources tell WMUR that former state Sen. Molly Kelly will make "a gubernatorial announcement" next week. The only notable candidate who is currently running in the September Democratic primary to take on GOP Gov. Chris Sununu is former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand.
● PA-Gov: The negative ads continue to fly with just a month to go before the May 15 GOP primary to take on Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. Businessman Paul Mango throws the kitchen sink at state Sen. Scott Wagner in an ad that calls him a "slum lord" and a "deadbeat dad."
And that's not all. Mango's commercial also argues that Wagner is a "sleazy bail bondsman" who "released a child predator from jail who abused again," and declares that he "sued an 84-year-old woman who didn't want his garbage service." It concludes with a brief clip of Wagner forcibly confronting a video tracker for the Democratic group American Bridge, as the narrator tells the audience, "And coming soon: Violent Wagner." The spot concludes with the tracker, Chris Van Leeuwen, exclaiming, "You just assaulted me!" Wagner bloodied Van Leeuwe in June when he tried to grab his phone, but state Attorney General Josh Shapiro declined to bring charges.
Both Republicans have been running negative ads at one another for months, but Wagner has more money to hit back with. Wagner ended March with $6.2 million in the bank, while Mango had a smaller $3.3 million war chest. A third candidate, attorney Laura Ellsworth, had only $434,000 to spend. Wagner contributed almost all of the $2.8 million he brought in during the first quarter of the year, while most of Mango's $573,000 haul came from himself and from a loan from private equity executive Patrick Hampson. Polling has been scarce here.
● SC-Gov: Wealthy businessman John Warren's second ad in the June GOP primary emphasizes his service in the Marines and business career.
● SD-Gov: Attorney General Marty Jackley's new GOP primary ad features a narrator saying he's an awesome tough-on-crime conservative. There are also shots of him playing Monopoly with his family and carrying a gun, two things we don't think we've seen together in one commercial before.
House
● CA-10: A new poll from Anzalone Liszt Grove for beekeeper Michael Eggman shows him trailing GOP Rep. Jeff Denham 45-41, but the real aim of this survey is to argue that Eggman is more electable than his best-funded Democratic rival, venture capitalist Josh Harder. Against Denham, Harder lags by a wider 48-37 margin, though part of that is due to name recognition: Eggman was the Democratic nominee in the 10th District the last two cycles, and he has a 28-18 favorability score. Harder, meanwhile, only gets a rating (up or down) from 13 percent of voters.
Eggman's poll also includes the results of two sets of so-called "informed ballot" questions, one after respondents are read short positive statements about all three candidates, and one after they hear negative statements. In both cases, Eggman continues to perform better than Harder, which you'd expect, since no campaign would release such numbers otherwise. But to the Eggman campaign's credit, they include the text of both the positive and negative statements, which are often left off memos like this that are produced for public consumption.
● CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros has done a masterful job both rolling up and rolling out endorsements from members of California's congressional delegation. With the support of Rep. Mark Takano, who represents the 41st District (not far to the east of the 39th), Cisneros now has the backing of 11 different Golden State representatives. Whether or not this was his intended plan, he's also generally pushed these endorsements out one by one, making it look like his campaign has sustained momentum.
● CA-49: In their first House campaign spending since the Texas and Illinois primaries last month, EMILY's List is forking out some $137,000 on a TV and digital buy to help Democrat Sara Jacobs ahead of June's top-two primary. The spot begins with a narrator saying, "There's the old boys in Washington … and those running to get there," as a photo collage of four other candidates appears on the screen: fellow Democrats Mike Levin, Paul Kerr, and Doug Applegate, plus Republican Rocky Chavez. "Then, there's Sara Jacobs," the voiceover continues, adding, "There aren't a lot of people in Congress who look like her, but maybe there should be."
The ad then goes on to say that Jacobs “worked for President Obama at the State Department and the U.N., advising on national security,” but one of the rival campaigns that EMILY dings—Kerr’s—quickly objected to that claim. Attorneys for Kerr have asked television stations to take down the ad, citing a San Diego Union-Tribune article from last month that reported that Jacobs had “inflated her work experience.” Jacobs did not in fact work for the State Department but rather for a government contractor whose client was the State Department. Jacobs’ campaign has said that this elision is “the most accurate and transparent” way to describe her job.
● IN-06: The pro-Trump dark money nonprofit 45Committee is out with a spot touting businessman Greg Pence, the older brother of Vice President Mike Pence, ahead of the May 8 GOP primary. They praise Pence's service in the Marines and business career before saying he's the "pro-life, pro-gun conservative leader we can trust to make America great again."
● MA-03: Westford School Committee chair Terry Ryan announced this week that he was leaving the very crowded September Democratic primary and would instead run for the state Senate.
● NC-03: GOP Rep. Walter Jones, once again on the receiving end of a primary challenge due to his predilection for apostasy, is trying to prove that no, he really is a good Republican despite what you've heard. On Thursday, he rolled out an endorsement from fellow North Carolinian Mark Meadows, who heads up the notoriously nihilistic House Freedom Caucus and loves himself some Trump somethin' fierce. (In fact, Meadows was even rumored to be a possible replacement for Trump chief of staff John Kelly earlier this year.) For shoring yourself up with the Trumpist base, Meadows is a pretty good get for Jones.
Meadows also shows up in a new, cheaply produced Jones TV ad that attacks his main rival, Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey, for failing to support Trump sufficiently. (Jones' "I approve this message" at the end of the ad sounds like it was phoned in from the bottom of the sea.) For what it's worth, the 75-year-old congressman, who was first elected in 1994, also just pledged that this would be his last election, though plenty of politicians have reneged on such promises in the past.
● NH-01: On Thursday, Carroll County Commissioner Mark Hounsell announced that he was dropping out of the September GOP primary, saying he was "no longer a viable candidate in that I am not financially viable," and he also took issue with the state party for driving away moderates.
● OH-12: It's been awhile since we've heard from Defending Main Street, a super PAC started by the late Ohio Rep. Steve LaTourette to try to stop anti-establishment candidates from winning GOP primaries. They're spending at least $240,000 in a cable and digital buy in support of state Sen. Troy Balderson, who is one of several Republicans competing in the May 8 primary. Their ad touts him as "a conservative champion" who voted to cut taxes and "eliminate Ohio's staggering deficit."
● PA-05: Former Gov. Ed Rendell has waded into the deluxe jumbo-sized May 15 Democratic primary for this 63-34 Clinton seat and endorsed attorney Mary Gay Scanlon. Scanlon, a former member of the Wallingford-Swarthmore school board, spent decades doing pro bono work at the same law firm where Rendell worked between his time as mayor of Philadelphia and as governor. Rendell is also featured in her cable TV ads.
grab bag
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: Fool Me Twice edition features New York fake “Democrats” trying to put one over on us again, Wisconsin voters being savvy, teachers in Oklahoma and Kentucky being done with GOP lawmakers’ antics, GOP fools in Colorado, and more!
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