The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CA-50: Rep. Duncan Hunter, who was one of the first two congressional Republicans to endorse Donald Trump in 2016, seems intent to do his best Trump impression now that he's been indicted for allegedly misusing donor money. On Wednesday, Hunter declared that the U.S. Department of Justice is "the Democrats' arm of law enforcement. … It's happening with Trump and it's happening with me." The DOJ of course is run by Jeff Sessions … who was the third congressional Republican to endorse Trump in 2016.
Campaign Action
Hunter also seems intent to be a pain toward his own party's leadership as well. Speaker Paul Ryan removed Rep. Chris Collins from his committees after the New Yorker was indicted two weeks ago for insider trading, and he sought to do the same thing to Hunter. But while Collins (who endorsed Trump along with Hunter on the same day two years ago) went along quietly, Politico reports that Hunter is refusing to step down. House Republicans reportedly will vote in early September to strip Hunter of his committee assignments.
Hunter has been in the spotlight for alleged campaign violations since 2016, and federal prosecutors allege that he and his wife, Margaret, filed false FEC charges to disguise the fact that they spent $250,000 in campaign funds on personal expenses for things such as family vacations, video games, and to transport his kid's pet rabbit on an airplane flight. Still, the actual indictment has some gory new details.
Perhaps the most memorable story from the indictment is how in 2015, in order to justify their use of campaign funds to pay for a trip to Italy, the congressman tried to set up a tour of an American Navy facility. After the Navy told him they could only provide a tour on a certain day, the indictment describes Hunter instructing "his chief of staff, ‘tell the Navy to go f--- themselves [no alteration in original],’ and no tour occurred."
Senate
● AZ-Sen: DefendArizona, which is supporting Rep. Martha McSally, has added another $525,000 to its ad buy against former state Sen. Kelli Ward ahead of next Tuesday's Republican primary.
● FL-Sen: Florida Atlantic University's latest poll tested the Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson and GOP Gov. Rick Scott, and they give Scott a 45-39 advantage. That margin is similar to the 44-40 Scott leads they found in July and May.
● NJ-Sen: Quinnipiac is out with the first independent poll we've seen here in months, and they give Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez a modest 43-37 lead over wealthy Republican Bob Hugin. That's a considerable drop for Menendez from the 49-32 lead the school found for him in March. However, Hugin and GOP outside groups have been spending heavily against the incumbent, who only went up with his first TV spot days ago. Meanwhile, a super PAC called Leadership Alliance has added $300,000 to a TV buy against Hugin.
New Jersey is usually a reliably blue state, and it hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, but this poll is hardly the first sign that Menendez could be in for a rough ride in an otherwise strong Democratic year. While his corruption trial ended in a mistrial in November and the Justice Department dropped all charges not long after, Menendez only won renomination in June by a 62-38 margin against a little-known opponent. Quinnipiac's new poll gives the senator a weak 40-47 job approval rating and a worse 29-47 favorable score. Despite all the ads he's already run, however, Hugin is still largely unknown with a 24-20 favorable rating.
Outside Democratic groups have been running commercials portraying Hugin as a greedy former pharmaceutical executive, and Menendez adopted a similar line of attack in his first TV spot. Menendez used the commercial to argue that while both he and Hugin were raised in Union City, the Republican has forgotten his roots and has become an ally of Donald Trump and wealthy interests.
● NM-Sen: Relatively little-known Republican Mick Rich has released a Tarrance Group poll to argue he's the more viable challenger to Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich, and his poll has him trailing by 41-34, with Libertarian Gary Johnson in distant third with 19 percent. However, this early August poll came before Johnson joined the race on the Libertarian ticket this month.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Democratic pollster SEA Politics has surveyed next week's Democratic primary for an undisclosed client that isn't one of the candidates. Their poll gives former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine a 26-25 edge over former Rep. Gwen Graham, while Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum takes 18 percent and billionaire developer Jeff Greene earns 13 percent. Those numbers are relatively consistent with their poll from last week that had Levine up 27-24 over Graham, but SEA is notably the only pollster to find Levine ahead for the last two months.
Interestingly, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, who is a Republican, is raising money for Levine, who had supported Gimenez in his 2016 nonpartisan election against another Republican. However, it's unclear if Gimenez will back Levine over whomever Republican nominate if he makes it to the general election.
● GA-Gov: The RGA's latest TV ad continues their line of attack against Democrat Stacey Abrams over her personal debt issues, hitting her for not paying $54,000 in taxes she owed despite earning $1 million over the last five years and loaning her campaign $50,000. However, Abrams has previously explained that she had reached an agreement with the IRS to defer her taxes while she had to support her elderly parents, including her father's cancer treatments, and had to pay off her student loan debt.
A recent New York Times editorial aptly called this tactic "debt-shaming," and it also reeks of hypocrisy coming from Republicans in this race. Indeed, Republican nominee Brian Kemp himself is being sued for allegedly failing to repay a $500,000 loan for an agriculture business he invested in, making Abrams' debts from student loans and taking care of her family pale in comparison when discussing who is supposedly fiscally irresponsible.
● IL-Gov: Marist has polled Illinois' gubernatorial election for NBC, and they find Democrat J.B. Pritzker holding a huge 46-30 lead over Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, while Libertarian Kash Jackson takes 6 percent and Conservative Party candidate Sam McCann earns 4 percent. This is Marist's first survey of the race, but every single poll this year has found Pritzker comfortably ahead.
● MD-Gov: Republican Gov. Larry Hogan has debuted his first general election ad, backed by a $1 million ad buy. The spot portrays his Democratic predecessor, former Gov. Martin O'Malley, as a failure whose taxes hurt Maryland, and Hogan takes credit for repealing O'Malley's unpopular "rain tax" on rainwater pollution. Lastly, the governor boasts of having not raised taxes his entire time in office.
● MN-Gov, MN-Sen-A, MN-Sen-B: Suffolk has polled Minnesota's major statewide contests, and they find Democrats with an advantage in each of them. In the gubernatorial race, Democratic Rep. Tim Walz holds a 46-41 lead over Republican Jeff Johnson. Meanwhile, appointed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith holds a 44-37 edge over Republican Karin Housley in the Senate special election, and Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar is up by a 54-34 landslide over Republican Jim Newberger in the regular Senate election.
● NM-Gov: We now have the size of the DGA-backed Stronger New Mexico's recent TV ad buy to attack Republican Steve Pearce: $275,000.
● NV-Gov: Republican Adam Laxalt has been running ads against general election rival Steve Sisolak since the expensive Democratic primary ended in June, and Sisolak's first TV ad isn't set to begin until mid-September. However, Sisolak's allies at Nevada Families First, a group affiliated with the DGA, are giving him some air cover in the intervening time, and they're out with a commercial arguing that Laxalt is in the pockets of the Koch brothers and other members of the oil industry.
The narrator also takes advantage of the tension between outgoing GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval and Laxalt, whom the popular incumbent refuses to endorse, and declares that Laxalt "stood with the Koch brothers and against Gov. Sandoval to deny affordable health insurance to over 200,000 Nevadans."
● OH-Gov: Republican Mike DeWine's first general election ad uses the testimony of a rape survivor to attack Democrat Richard Cordray over how there was a backlog of 12,000 untested rape kits when the latter was state attorney general, an issue that Republicans have used in multiple races in recent years. DeWine's ad implies Cordray was negligent and let hundreds of rapists walk free, and it touts how DeWine eliminated most of the backlog.
However, as Cleveland.com reported, Cordray inherited an office that lacked standard policies for local law enforcement to handle testing the kits, and he had already taken action before his 2010 re-election defeat to speed up the process by making use of robotics. While DeWine is trying to portray himself as the "law and order" candidate, it's notable that the typically GOP-leaning Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Cordray, in part because of a report on how most of the special agents at the attorney general's Bureau of Criminal Investigation had been given bulletproof vests that had expired, leading them to file an official grievance.
● OK-Gov: Former Sen. Tom Coburn, who left the Senate in early 2015, endorsed businessman Kevin Stitt a week ahead of his GOP primary runoff against former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett. Coburn, who said that the negative ads against Stitt were one reason he was coming out for him, also defended the candidate from attacks on his mortgage company's practices during the Great Recession.
Meanwhile, the pro-Cornett super PAC Oklahoma Values launched a new ad arguing that Stitt "pumped thousands of dollars into a D.C. political group that propped up liberals Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters." A pair of early August polls gave Stitt the lead, but we've seen nothing new in weeks.
● SC-Gov: We have dueling polls in this contest. Democrat James Smith is out with a survey from Garin-Hart-Yang that gives GOP Gov. Henry McMaster a small 47-43 lead. However, while McMaster's campaign has declined to release their own internals, their allies at the RGA unveiled a Tarrance Group survey that has McMaster up 52-41. (We don't have a link to the Tarrance poll, but Post and Courier's Jamie Lovegrove tells us it was in the field Aug. 11-13 and sampled 601 voters.) So far, major national groups on either side haven't been running commercials here.
● WI-Gov, WI-Sen: Marquette finds two tight races in their home state of Wisconsin a week after the primaries concluded. In the contest for governor, they have GOP incumbent Scott Walker and Democrat Tony Evers all tied up 46-46 among likely voters, while Libertarian Phil Anderson snags 6. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin edges Republican Leah Vukmir 49-47. Marquette's June poll gave Walker a 48-44 edge over Evers, while Baldwin led Vukmir 49-40.
There haven't been many other recent polls in either contests. A month-old Marist poll had Evers and Baldwin leading by massive 54-41 and 55-38 margins, respectively. Last week, Evers released a PPP survey that gave him a considerably smaller 49-44 lead; that release did not include any Senate numbers.
Marquette has a strong record in Wisconsin, though there's one unusual thing about this poll we want to note. Marquette also released the results among registered voters, and that sample has Walker up 46-44 and Baldwin leading 51-43, respectively. Democrats struggled in 2010 and 2014 to turn out voters for the midterms, but Team Blue seems to have the enthusiasm edge this time around. That makes it a bit odd that Baldwin would be doing noticeably worse among likely voters, especially at the same time that Evers does slightly better.
One thing that's indisputable, though, is that the governor's race will be extremely expensive. The Associated Press writes that the GOP has outspent Democrats $5.4 million to $2.2 million … and that was just during last week. The RGA has reserved an additional $5.7 million in TV time for the final two months, while the DGA has booked $3.8 million. The Senate race has also attracted plenty of cash, with groups funded by the Koch brothers and megadonor Richard Uihlein outspending Baldwin's allies $4.2 million to $1 million ahead of the primary. However, Baldwin is well-funded herself, and she recently went up with her first spot hitting Vukmir.
House
● CO-06: While GOP Rep. Mike Coffman has tried to portray himself as a moderate ever since a court turned his formerly red district light-blue in 2011 redistricting, every so often his hardline side sneaks through, and this time it's on immigration. Coffman has publicly espoused a moderate position on immigration, but the Washington Post obtained a recording where he called Donald Trump's DACA policy "more generous ... than I would [propose]" at a private fundraiser. Furthermore, the congressman advocated for a "zero tolerance" policy on immigration, although it's unclear if he was referring to Trump's abusive family separation policy or other strict immigration measures.
This isn't the first time that congressman has had trouble adapting to his more moderate district, which backed both Clinton and Obama. Back in 2012, Coffman engaged in birtherism and questioned whether Obama was born in America. Additionally, Coffman said, "But I do know this, that in his heart, he's not an American. He's just not an American." Undoubtedly, these sorts of statements will give Democrats ample ammunition to try to portray him as too extreme for his swing district.
● FL-06, FL-17: The With Honor Fund has added another $249,000 into their media buy in support of retired Green Beret Michael Waltz ahead of next week's GOP primary for the 6th District. They're also spending another $85,000 on a TV buy for state Sen. Greg Steube in the GOP primary for the 17th District.
● FL-27: Spanish-language TV journalist Maria Elvira Salazar is out with a poll from McLaughlin & Associates that gives her a wide 40-16 lead over former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro in Tuesday's GOP primary.
While McLaughlin is far from our favorite pollster, we very much believe that Barreiro's campaign is in awful shape days away from Election Day. Barreiro was embarrassed in June when his wife lost the special election to succeed him on the county commission to a Democrat, an upset that flipped the body to a Democratic majority. Weeks later, his own campaign released a poll showing him losing the primary 24-10. All of that unsurprisingly didn't help Barreiro's fundraising, but it's still astounding that he raised just $50 from July 1 to Aug. 8.
● NY-25: Siena takes a look at the race for this Rochester seat, and they give Democrat Joe Morelle a 55-31 lead over Republican Jim Maxwell. Clinton carried this district 56-39, and no major outside groups have shown much interest in spending here. Meanwhile, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has finally announced that the special election to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter, who died in March, will also be held Nov. 6.
● NY-27: On Tuesday, the eight local county GOP chairs interviewed nine different politicians who are looking to inherit the GOP nomination from Rep. Chris Collins, who suspended his re-election campaign after being indicted for insider trading. Spectrum News has the names of those would-be nominees: state Sens. Chris Jacobs, Mike Ranzenhofer, and Rob Ortt; state Assemblymen Steve Hawley and Ray Walter; Erie County Legislators Lynne Dixon and Ed Rath; Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw; and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino.
It may be a while before anyone gets awarded the final rose, however. Erie County party chair Nick Langworthy, whose county is the largest in the district, says they may wait until after the Sept. 13 state primary to officially name someone to replace Collins as GOP nominee, though he adds that they may unofficially designate someone before then.
Still, the GOP doesn't seem to have settled on a strategy to get Collins, who won the GOP nomination in the June federal primary, off the ballot. Langworthy only reiterated Tuesday that he believes there's a way to do it, despite New York's very restrictive election laws. Democrats previously said they'd sue to block any GOP attempt to swap out Collins for someone else.
● House: The Conservative Leadership Alliance has launched issue ads in five different seats thanking the local Republican incumbent for their vote on the leadership's tax cut and urging viewers to call them urging them to "block the Pelosi tax hike." The ads are airing for Mimi Walters (CA-45); Andy Barr (KY-06); Erik Paulsen (MN-03); George Holding (NC-02); and Don Bacon (NE-02). CLA says the ads are running "on broadcast TV in four districts, on cable TV in CA-45, and substantial digital advertising will run in all of the districts."
Primary Recap
● WY-Sen: GOP Sen. John Barrasso defeated investor Dave Dobson, a moderate who put $1 million of his own money into his campaign, 65-29 in the GOP primary. While Barrasso didn't come anywhere close to losing, however, the University of Minnesota's Eric Ostermeier writes that he did achieve one unwelcome distinction.
While no sitting senator has ever lost their primary in Wyoming history, this was the first time that any had taken less than 70 percent of the vote. The previous low-water mark was Republican Robert Carey, who took 72 percent in 1936. Still, Barrasso is safe in the general election in this extremely red state against businessman Gary Trauner, a Democrat who lost competitive races for the House in 2006 and 2008.
● AK-Gov: Former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy defeated former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who only entered the race in June, 62-32 in Tuesday's GOP primary. Dunleavy begins the general election as the favorite in a three-way race against independent Gov. Bill Walker and former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in this red state, and Daily Kos Elections rates this as Likely Republican.
Both Walker and Begich are aware that if they're both on the ballot in November, they could make it incredibly tough for either of them to beat Dunleavy, and Vox reports that their camps have discussed the possibility that one of them could drop out and support the other. This is what happened in 2014 when Democratic nominee Byron Mallott exited the race and became Walker's running mate, which made Walker the de facto Democratic nominee.
However, candidates only have until Sept. 4 to get their name off the ballot. Begich, who entered the race in June, declared this week that he's not going anywhere, and Walker's team hasn't given any obvious hints that he's interested in quitting the race, either.
● WY-Gov: State Treasurer Mark Gordon defeated conservative megadonor Foster Friess 33-26 in the GOP primary to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Matt Mead, with attorney Harriet Hageman taking 21. Donald Trump endorsed Friess in a tweet on Tuesday morning about two hours after polls had opened, but it seems he acted too late to shift the course of the race. Gordon is the heavy favorite in this very red state against former state House Democratic Leader Mary Throne, and we rate the contest as Safe Republican.
● AK-AL: Schools advocate Alyse Galvin won the Democratic primary 54-23, and she will take on long-serving GOP Rep. Don Young in the fall. Galvin still identifies as an independent, but she was able to claim the Democratic nomination because Democratic leaders won a lawsuit earlier this year to allow independents to run in party primaries. Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight writes that Galvin will be listed on the general election ballot as an undeclared candidate who was nominated by the Democratic Party.
Galvin has been a good fundraiser, and Young held a modest $435,000 to $256,000 cash-on-hand lead at the start of August. However, while there are signs that many Alaskans are tired of Young, who has served since 1973, he'll be very tough to beat even in a good Democratic year. One of Team Blue's big challenges has been that, while Young only took a bare majority in his last two contests, plenty of anti-Young votes have gone to independent candidates. Young's ability to secure needed appropriations has also given him a strong base of support in heavily Native American areas that usually vote for Democratic presidential candidates.
So far, major outside groups have not purchased ad time here. We rate this contest as Likely Republican.
Ad Roundup
