We have another big election night Tuesday. In addition to the high-profile special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District, we have party primaries in Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri. Washington also will hold its “top-two primary” where all the candidates from all parties run on the same ballot, and the two candidates with the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party. (Candidates cannot avoid the general election in Washington by winning a majority in August.)
The first polls close at 7:30 PM ET in Ohio's 12th. Polls close in Missouri, the part of Michigan in the eastern time zone, and the part of Kansas in the central time zone at 8 PM ET; the remaining parts of Michigan and Kansas close at 9 PM ET. Washington votes entirely by mail, and ballots must be returned to the county elections department or a designated ballot drop-off point by 11 PM ET or postmarked no later than Election Day.
Our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below. We also invite you to join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog of all of the races on the docket and to follow our coverage on Twitter, as well.
● KS-Gov (R & D): Republican Jeff Colyer was elevated from lieutenant governor to governor at the end of January after Sam Brownback finally escaped the state thanks to a minor ambassadorship, but Colyer had no time to get comfortable. Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the country’s most notorious voter suppression crusader, was already in the race, and he very much did not defer to Colyer. Kobach, who helped spearhead the White House’s infamous “voter fraud” commission, also picked up Donald Trump’s endorsement the day before the primary; the Republican Governors Association, which fears Kobach would be a weak nominee, had unsuccessfully lobbied Trump to stay neutral. Jim Barnett (the 2006 nominee) and state Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer are also running.
Kobach released a poll giving himself a 34-25 lead, while Remington Research, whose parent company Axiom Strategies employs a Colyer consultant, showed a 34-32 lead for the governor. (Both polls were taken before Trump endorsed Kobach.) Colyer isn’t acting too confident, and he’s run a commercial encouraging supporters of Barnett and Selzer to back him to stop Kobach.
Brownback's radical tax cuts have left Kansas in horrible financial shape, and Democrats are hoping that his awful legacy will give them an opening in what's usually a very red state. State Sen. Laura Kelly has the support of EMILY's List and former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, and she outspent her rivals. Also in the running are state Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty, whose anti-abortion record in the legislature from the last decade has made him some enemies, and former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, who has struggled to raise money. Independent businessman Greg Orman awaits both major party nominees in the fall.
senate
● MI-Sen (R): National Republicans haven't shown too much enthusiasm about targeting Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow this cycle, but two well-financed Republicans are competing to take her on. While early polls gave wealthy venture capitalist Sandy Pensler the lead over businessman and Army veteran John James, Donald Trump endorsed James in the final weeks of the race.
Gubernatorial
● MI-Gov (D & R): GOP Gov. Rick Snyder is termed-out, and this contest is one of Team Blue's better pickup opportunities.
The state Democratic establishment and prominent unions have coalesced behind former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, while Bernie Sanders and many of his allies are backing former Detroit Health Commissioner Abdul El-Sayed, who would be the country's first Muslim governor. Wealthy businessman Shri Thanedar has used his vast personal resources to outspend his rivals, but he's drawn bad headlines over reports that he considered running as a Republican, as well as over his old company's poor treatment of animals in its testing facility.
Recent polls all give Whitmer the lead, but there's little consensus on anything else. Marist found Whitmer edging Thanedar just 31-27, with El-Sayed at 22. However, EPIC-MRA found Whitmer decisively leading Thanedar 49-22, while El-Sayed took 19. El-Sayed also recently released a poll showing her leading him just 33-27, while Thanedar took 14. It’s also not lost on anyone that the polls badly underestimated Bernie Sanders in the state’s 2016 presidential primary.
Things are much more clear on the GOP side, where Attorney General Bill Schuette has led Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in every single poll that's been released. However, surveys also disagree about how far ahead Schuette is, with some surveys finding Calley just 7 or 8 points down and others finding Schuette ahead by around 20 points. Schuette has Donald Trump's endorsement, while Calley has Snyder in his corner.
House
● KS-02 (R) (56-37 Trump, 55-42 Romney): Democrats are excited about their candidate, former state House Democratic Leader and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis, and both parties are preparing for a competitive general election in what's normally a conservative Topeka-area seat. Team Red has a large field of candidates competing to succeed retiring Rep. Lynn Jenkins, but most of them have had trouble raising money.
The best-financed candidate is Army veteran Steve Watkins, who has self-funded most of his campaign. Watkins has also benefited from heavy spending from Kansans Can Do Anything, a super PAC financed by his father, and With Honor Fund. However, while Watkins has portrayed himself as an ardent Trump ally, local Democratic leaders say he met with them last year about the possibility of running for Team Blue. Watkins’ many rivals also seem to be treating him as the frontrunner, since they've devoted much of their energies to attacking him. Among other things, they've posted audio of him describing himself as a "pro-choice Christian" and hit him for not voting in the 2016 election.
However, none of Watkins' many rivals have much money between them, nor do they have much outside support. Watkins spent $277,000 from July 1 to July 18 (the time the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), while state Sen. Caryn Tyson was a distant second with just $59,000 deployed during this time. Kansans Can Do Anything launched an ad against Tyson in the final week of the race, indicating that they think she’s Watkins’ main threat. Also in the running are state Sens. Steve Fitzgerald and Dennis Pyle, state Rep. Kevin Jones, and former state House Speaker Doug Mays.
● KS-03 (D) (47-46 Clinton, 54-44 Romney): Several Democrats are competing to take on GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder in this suburban Kansas City seat, and there's no obvious frontrunner.
Labor lawyer Brent Welder has attracted some high-profile support from Sen. Bernie Sanders and his allies. However, Welder only recently moved to Kansas from the St. Louis area, and national Republicans seem to believe he’ll be the weakest nominee. The conservative group Ending Spending aired ads days before the election designed to boost Welder with primary voters while ostensibly attacking him. Teacher Tom Niermann has been focusing his campaign on preventing gun violence, and he's picked up some support from local moderate Republicans. Attorney Sharice Davids, who would be Kansas' first openly LGBT member of Congress as well as the first Native American woman to serve, has benefited from TV ads from EMILY's List.
Also in the running are 2016 nominee Jay Sidie, who has raised little money but may benefit from name recognition; retired banker Sylvia Williams; and nonprofit technology director Mike McCamon. The only poll we’ve seen was a PPP survey for Welder’s allies at the Progressive Change Campaign Committee that gave him a 35-21 lead over Davids, with Niermann at 15.
● OH-12 (special election) (53-42 Trump, 54-44 Romney): This historically red Columbus-area seat is home to a competitive and expensive special election between GOP state Sen. Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor, the Franklin County recorder. Recent Democratic polls give Balderson a small lead, though an independent poll from Monmouth University found Team Red ahead just 44-43. The same two candidates will face off again in November for the regular-two year term.
For a look at what to watch on election night here, check out David Jarman’s county benchmarks post, which will give us an idea if each candidate is meeting their goals in the district’s seven counties.
● MI-06 (D) (51-43 Trump, 50-49 Romney): GOP Rep. Fred Upton has held this Kalamazoo-area seat since 1986, but Democrats hope he'll be vulnerable in a tough climate. The two main Democratic candidates are physician and former YMCA national health officer Matt Longjohn and George Franklin, a former Kellogg lobbyist. Franklin outspent Longjohn $176,000 to $92,000 during the pre-primary period.
● MI-09 (D) (51-44 Clinton, 57-42 Obama): Longtime Democratic Rep. Sandy Levin is retiring from this suburban Detroit seat, and Team Blue has an expensive race to succeed him. Attorney and businessman Andy Levin, who is the congressman's son, is competing with former state Rep. Ellen Lipton, who is backed by EMILY's List. Lipton outspent Levin $395,000 to $328,000 during the pre-primary period and had more money left for the final weeks of the contest, but a recent poll from EPIC-MRA gave Levin a 49-26 lead. The GOP is not targeting this seat.
● MI-11 (D & R): (50-45 Trump, 52-47 Romney): GOP Rep. David Trott unexpectedly announced he would not seek a third term last year, and both parties have crowded primaries to succeed him.
There are four credible Democrats running and no obvious frontrunner. Haley Stevens, a former chief of staff to Barack Obama's Auto Task Force, and former Detroit Director of Immigration Affairs Fayrouz Saad both entered the race before Trott retired. Businessman Suneel Gupta (a brother of famed CNN medical reporter Sanjay Gupta) got in afterwards and quickly raised plenty of money, while state Rep. Tim Greimel has the support of several unions. A recent poll from Target-Insyght found Stevens leading Gupta 21-15, with Greimel at 14 and Saad at 7. However, an EPIC-MRA survey had Greimel edging Stevens 25-21, with Gupta and Saad at 19 and 13 percent, respectively. Stevens picked up Hillary Clinton’s endorsement on Sunday.
A number of Republicans are also competing, but wealthy businesswoman Lena Epstein, who has decisively outspent all her rivals, seems to have the edge. EPIC-MRA gave her a 29-22 lead over former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski, who narrowly lost a competitive 2010 race for a district that included part of this territory. State Rep. Klint Kesto and state Sen. Mike Kowall were at 15 and 10, respectively, while former Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, who accidentally represented this seat in 2013 and 2014, took just 9. A Mitchell Research poll also gave Epstein a 27-18 lead over Raczkowski, with Bentivolio at 14.
In the final week of the race, Epstein made an odd decision to meddle in the Democratic primary. She launched a TV ad against Greimel that ostensibly attacked him as “blindly anti-Trump” and “too liberal,” a message is quite likely to endear him to Democratic primary voters.
● MI-13 (D) (79-18 Clinton, 85-14 Obama): Democratic Rep. John Conyers' 53-year career came to an end in December when he resigned after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment. GOP Gov. Rick Snyder scheduled the special election for this safely blue Detroit-area seat for November, and both primaries will take place in August.
Several Democrats are running, and two recent polls found a very tight three-way race between Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib, and Westland Mayor Bill Wild. Jones has spent very little money, but she has Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan in her corner. Tlaib, who would be the first Muslim woman to serve in Congress, has been the strongest fundraiser of the contest. Wild, who has also raised a credible amount of cash, is the only notable white candidate in a seat where African Americans make up a large share of the primary electorate, but he could do well in a contest with a number of prominent black candidates.
Also in the running are state Sen. Coleman Young II, who badly lost last year's race for mayor of Detroit; state Sen. Ian Conyers, a grandnephew of the former congressman; and former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson.
● WA-08 (48-45 Clinton, 50-48 Obama): GOP Rep. David Reichert is retiring from this competitive suburban Seattle seat, and both parties are planning for a competitive race. National Republicans very quickly consolidated behind former state Sen. Dino Rossi, and there's no question he'll reach the general election. However, three credible Democrats are competing for the other top-two spot, and there's no obvious frontrunner.
Pediatrician Kim Schrier has the support of EMILY's List as well as several unions, and she outspent former Center for Disease Control and Prevention official Shannon Hader $356,000 to $256,000 during the pre-primary period. Employment attorney Jason Rittereiser deployed $198,000 during this time, and he attracted some attention for an ad calling Trump's Helsinki press conference with Vladimir Putin "treason." Hader also made headlines when she sent out mailers accusing Schrier of opposing mandatory vaccinations for children, though Schrier says she actually supports that policy.
A few other candidates will be on the ballot, but unlike in June's top-two races in California, neither party is acting like there is any chance that two Republicans will advance to the general election here.
ballot measures
● MO Ballot: The GOP-led state legislature passed a so-called “right-to-work” law last year that would ban compulsory union fees for private sector groups in an attempt to cripple labor. The law’s opponents got enough signatures to get a measure on the ballot to repeal the law, but the legislature moved the vote from the November general election to the August primary in an attempt to weaken Democratic turnout.
A yes vote for Proposition A would uphold the GOP’s anti-labor law, while a no vote would repeal it. Supporters of the repeal have decisively outspent their rivals, and a mid-July poll from Remington Research showed them ahead 56-38; however, we have very little other data here for this important contest.