This post was written by Jeff Singer and Matt Booker.
We have our first major election night of 2019 on Tuesday, and we have much to watch across the nation.
Chicago will hold its general election for mayor, while Kansas City, Missouri, will host a very crowded nonpartisan mayoral primary. In Pennsylvania, Democrats are hoping to flip a competitive state Senate seat, while Team Blue is trying to hold a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat in a race that could prove vital to rolling back Republican gerrymandering. Finally, in Las Vegas, a disgraced former Democratic congressman is hoping to win a city council seat. We also have mayoral races in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and Las Vegas, though we don't expect either contest to be competitive.
Our guide to the key races to watch is below. Polls close in Chicago, Kansas City, and Pennsylvania at 8 PM ET (7 PM Central Time), at 9 PM ET in Wisconsin (8 PM local time), and in Las Vegas at 10 PM ET (7 PM local time). We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections starting at 8 PM ET, and tweeting as well.
Leading Off
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Mayor Rahm Emanuel surprised Chicago when he decided not to run for a third term, and now two fellow Democrats, former federal prosecutor Lori Lightfoot and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, have advanced to the (officially nonpartisan) general election to succeed him. Either Lightfoot or Preckwinkle would be the first black woman to serve as mayor of the Windy City, and Chicago will also soon become the largest city in America ever to be led by a woman of color. In addition, a Lightfoot victory would make Chicago the largest city in the country to ever be led by a gay mayor.
While Lightfoot only edged Preckwinkle 18-16 in the crowded Feb. 28 primary, she is the overwhelming favorite in Tuesday's contest. Preckwinkle was on the receiving end of widespread attacks and withering scrutiny for months during the primary over her connections to Alderman Ed Burke, who was indicted for corruption in January, as well as a 2017 soda tax she passed and then repealed, and she began the general election in a weakened position. Since then, her major allies haven't invested much cash, leaving her without the resources to run a sustained advertising campaign. Polls have shown Lightfoot far ahead, with one survey last week giving her a huge 53-17 lead.
Judicial
● WI Supreme Court: Wisconsin has an officially nonpartisan race for the state Supreme Court, but the ideological battle lines are clear. Progressives are supporting Lisa Neubauer, the chief judge of the state Court of Appeals, and conservatives are backing Brian Hagedorn, a fellow appeals court judge who has come under fire for blog posts he once wrote saying that legalizing same-sex marriage would lead to doing the same for bestiality.
Neubauer and Hagedorn are vying to fill the seat left open by retiring progressive Justice Shirley Abrahamson. If Neubauer can hold the seat, the court's ideological composition will remain unchanged, with four conservatives and three progressives, but that would give Democrats a chance to flip the court next year when conservative Justice Dan Kelly, a Scott Walker appointee, is up.
However, a Hagedorn victory would protect the conservative majority ahead of some potentially big decisions. In particular, with Republicans firmly in charge of the legislature, but with Democrat Tony Evers now holding the governorship, there's a good chance the court will be called on to adjudicate the next round of redistricting following the 2020 census. That could have the effect of undoing an extreme Republican gerrymander that, among other things, saw the GOP retain a nearly two-thirds majority in the state Assembly despite losing every statewide race in 2018.
Neubauer has outraised Hagedorn, and until the final week of the contest, her allies had outspent conservatives by a 14-to-1 ratio. However, the Republican State Leadership Committee launched a late seven-figure buy in the final days in an effort to flip this seat.
Legislative
● PA SD-37: We have an open Republican state Senate district located in the western and southern suburbs of Pittsburgh. This vacancy was created by former state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler’s election to the U.S. House.
The candidates were selected by the parties. The Democrat is Navy veteran Pam Iovino, and the Republican is businessman D. Raja. Iovino is not new to Pittsburgh-area politics: She was in the running to be the Democratic nominee in the 2018 special election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District but was passed over for eventual winner Connor Lamb. Raja also has political history in this area. He ran for this seat once before in 2012, losing to Democrat Matthew Smith 53-47.
This race is the first of its kind on the 2019 special election calendar. The special election slate this year has largely been comprised of safe seats on either side, with Democrats holding a few key seats in difficult races. However, four of the year’s five flips so far have gone for Team Red, while an independent picked up one seat from the GOP. This race therefore marks the first true pickup opportunity for Democrats this cycle.
Though the 37th has been red turf in the last two presidential elections, the trends have gone the right way for Democrats: After supporting Mitt Romney by a 56-43 margin, the district went for Donald Trump by a narrower 51-45 spread.
Democrats also fared very well here last year. Gov. Tom Wolf rolled to a 57-41 victory, while Sen. Bob Casey racked up a 55-43 win. Lamb, meanwhile, carried the 37th (which is located almost entirely inside the old 18th Congressional District) by a 56-43 margin in his special election win. In addition, Democrat Lindsey Williams flipped the adjacent (and demographically similar) 38th State Senate District, beating Republican Jeremy Shaffer 50.3-49.7.
The composition of the Pennsylvania Senate stands at 26-21 in favor of Republicans with three vacancies, including this one. The other two are safely red, but if Iovino can flip the 37th, Democrats will only need to pick up three more seats next year to take control of the chamber. That's why both sides have spent seven figures on this race, though almost all of the GOP spending has come thanks to extensive self-funding from Raja.
We also have special elections for state House seats in Maine and Mississippi, which you can find out more about here.
Mayoral
● Kansas City, MO Mayor: Mayor Sly James is termed-out, and there's a very crowded nonpartisan primary to succeed him. James and EMILY's List are backing City Councilor Jolie Justus, a former Democratic leader in the state Senate who would be the city's first gay mayor.
Two polls have found Justus in first place, but there's a very crowded contest for second between City Councilors Alissia Canady, Jermaine Reed, Scott Taylor, and Scott Wagner, as well as attorney Steve Miller; a number of other contenders are also running. The two candidates with the most votes will advance to the June 18 general election.
Other Races
● Las Vegas, NV City Council: Democrat Ruben Kihuen decided not to seek a second term in the U.S. House last year after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment, but rather than slip quietly out of public life, he soon announced that he would run for an open seat on the Las Vegas City Council. Fortunately, a number of other candidates are running to represent Ward 3 in this nonpartisan race, with Nevada’s two senators, Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen, supporting former Democratic Assemblywoman Olivia Diaz. If no one takes a majority, there would be a runoff on June 11.
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