The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● IA-02: On Friday, Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack announced that he would not seek re-election in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. Loebsack leaves behind a southeastern Iowa seat that swung from 56-43 Obama to 49-45 Trump. However, this district, which includes Davenport and Iowa City, did back Democratic gubernatorial Fred Hubbell 51-47 even as he was narrowly losing statewide to Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds. Team Red also failed to field a strong candidate against Loebsack last year despite Trump's win.
Campaign Action
Loebsack's retirement ends a surprising political career. Back in 2006 Loebsack, a political science professor at Cornell College, launched a longshot bid against 15-term GOP Rep. Jim Leach. Leach, who had opposed the Iraq War, was one of the more liberal Republicans in the House, and he had won re-election 59-39 even as John Kerry was carrying his seat 55-44 two years earlier. Loebsack himself also didn't get off to a strong start when he failed to turn in enough signatures to make the primary ballot. No other Democrat filed, though, and Loebsack was nominated at a special convention.
The general election campaign was an odd one where the two opponents went out of their way to stay positive. Leach, who had been a guest lecturer in Loebsack's classroom (his campaign manager was also a former Loebsack student), went so far as to condemn mailers from the state Republican Party attacking the Democrat, and he even told the RNC that he wouldn't caucus with the GOP in the next Congress if they didn't stop.
Loebsack, for his part, said he was glad the DCCC wasn't getting involved in his race. And while he campaigned against the Bush administration and the Iraq War, Loebsack called Leach a "good man" in his ads. Neither candidate raised much money and even though 2006 was a strong year for Democrats, it was still a huge surprise when Loebsack unseated Leach 51-49. Leach didn't seem particularly angry about the upset, and he endorsed Barack Obama two years later.
Loebsack was re-elected by a wide 57-39 margin in 2008 against Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. However, he defeated her by a modest 51-46 in a rematch that took place during the 2010 GOP wave. Loebsack's next campaign wasn't very eventful but in 2014, he dispatched Miller-Meeks only 52-47. Loebsack was one of the luckier Iowa Democrats in that grim year, and for four years, he was the one Democrat in the state's congressional delegation.
Republicans didn't anticipate how popular Trump would be in this seat and failed to field a strong opponent in 2016. Loebsack beat underfunded Republican Christopher Peters 54-46 as Trump was carrying the seat, and he won their rematch 55-43 last year.
1Q Fundraising
Senate
● ME-Sen: Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon confirmed on Thursday that she was still considering taking on GOP Sen. Susan Collins but had no timeline to decide. Gideon added that she was working on her legislative duties "with full focus this session." Maine's legislature doesn't adjourn until June 19, and the Bangor Daily News' Michael Shepherd interpreted Gideon's comment as meaning that it's unlikely she'll decide before then.
Gideon said back in January that she believed a top-tier Senate candidate would need to get in during the first half of 2019, so if she wanted to stick to that timeframe, she would need to make up her mind very quickly after the session ends.
● NE-Sen: Pretend Trump critic Ben Sasse has yet to confirm whether he'll seek a second term in the Senate next year, and there's been lots of speculation that he might instead be interested in leading the University of Nebraska, whose president, Hank Bounds, announced last month that he'd retire this summer. Sasse, who was president of Midland University, a small private Lutheran school, before he joined the Senate in 2014, hasn't directly spoken about his desires, but earlier this month, he met with Bounds and several NU regents in DC.
One regent insisted that the trip was not "any sort of recruitment process" and said that Sasse has not expressed interested in the job, noting that the school is still setting up its search process for a new president. However, another regent did offer that Sasse has a "very impressive" academic background.
● NM-Sen: Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver is "gearing up" to run for New Mexico's open Senate seat, a spokesperson told Roll Call on Thursday, reiterating that Toulouse Oliver intends to kick off her campaign later this month. That would set up a heavyweight primary matchup with Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, who announced a bid a couple of weeks ago.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: On Thursday, GOP state Sen. Sharon Hewitt announced that she would seek re-election and would not run for governor "for now." Hewitt added "I'm walking through the re-election door, but what I've learned during this journey is never to close any doors," but it's not clear if, to borrow her metaphor, she's leaving the door open a crack to a 2019 bid or is just talking about running for governor another year. However, Hewitt noted that she's interested in running for Senate president next year, which is not something she could conceivably do if she doesn't seek and win re-election, so it seems unlikely we'll see her name on a statewide ballot this time around.
Hewitt was the last notable Republican who was still publicly considering getting into the race against Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards. Rep. Ralph Abraham and wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone have been running for months, though some Republicans have made it clear that they want more options. Louisiana's filing deadline isn't until isn't until Aug. 8.
● NH-Gov: State Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes publicly acknowledged for the first time on Thursday that he was considering seeking the Democratic nomination, telling the Concord Monitor that a decision would likely be made in the summer after the legislative session ends at the end of June. Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky, who sent out an email to supporters back in January saying he was "fairly likely" to run, also reiterated he was "seriously considering."
House
● CA-15: On Friday, Hayward City Councilor Aisha Wahab became the first Democrat to announce a bid to succeed Rep. Eric Swalwell, who is seeking the Democratic presidential nod.
Wahab is the daughter of a couple who fled the Soviet War in Afghanistan, and she grew up in foster care after both her parents died when she was young. Wahab, who was adopted by another Afghan American family, successfully ran for the Hayward City Council last year in a win that, along with New Hampshire state Rep. Safiya Wazir, generated national headlines and made her the first Afghan elected to office in the United States.
Wahab, who at 31 was also the second-youngest councilmember in the city's history, also managed to win despite being lacking the support of the police and fire unions, the mobile home associations, and the city chamber of commerce, which the East Bay Express' Steven Tavares called the "big four groups" in city politics. However, Wahab outraised all her opponents thanks in large part to her contacts in the sizable Afghan American community in nearby Fremont.
During her brief time in office, Wahab has often clashed with other members of city government. Wahab has made attempts to, among other things, raise the minimum wage, institute rent control, and put the police through de-escalation training. Last month, the city manager tried to push a policy through the Council to limit the number of legislative referrals each councilmember can request each year, which was a not-so-veiled attempt to limit Wahab's influence. The measure failed, but not before a bitter City Council debate where one of Wahab's colleagues suggested she was using her platform to grandstand.
Wahab is unlikely to be the last Democrat in the race for this safely blue Bay Area seat. On Friday, state Sen. Bob Wieckowski said he was "currently in the process of establishing" an exploratory committee. Wieckowski, who was elected to the state Senate in 2012, represents a seat that includes about 60% of the 15th Congressional District.
● MO-02: While there was some speculation back in December that GOP Rep. Ann Wagner could retire, she's certainly fundraising like she plans to run again. Wagner brought in $500,000 during the first three months of 2019, and she has $1.4 million in the bank.
Last year Wagner fended off a challenge from Democrat Cort VanOstran 51-47 in a race that didn't attract much outside spending, and VanOstran said again Thursday that he was still considering another bid, though he had no timeline for deciding. This suburban St. Louis seat backed Trump 53-42, but according to analyst Miles Coleman, Democrat Claire McCaskill carried it 50.3-47.6 during her unsuccessful Senate re-election bid last year.
● NC-03: Retired Marine Col. Richard Bew, one of half a dozen Democrats running in the special election for North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, has released his first TV ad ahead of the April 30 primary. As footage of various military jets in flight appear (as well as a still of Bew himself in a cockpit), he says, "You learn a lot flying in combat as a Marine. First of all, leave no one behind." But Washington, he continues, "is leaving too many people behind." Bew then berates Republicans for wanting "to cut the Medicare benefits seniors depend on, all to pay for tax cuts for the rich." "Not on my watch," he declares. Bew's campaign says the ad is airing on broadcast television but did not divulge the size of the buy.
● NY-11: Even though Joe Borelli, one of just three Republicans on New York's City Council, has announced he's running for public advocate this year, if (or likely, when) he loses, he could still mount a bid for Congress next year—and in new comments to reporters, he didn't rule out the possibility. However, as we've noted, that would put Borelli almost a year behind Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, who's been raising money since January and has the blessing of a donation from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
● NY-24: 2018 Democratic nominee Dana Balter has been mulling seeking a rematch against GOP Rep. John Katko in this 49-45 Clinton seat in the Syracuse area, and she has a "special announcement" planned for Tuesday. Balter lost 53-47 last year as Republican Marc Molinaro was carrying this seat 47-44 against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo (hat-tip: Greg Giroux). Earlier this month, Navy veteran Roger Misso kicked off a bid for the Democratic nod.
● SC-01: On Friday, outgoing Charleston County Republican Party chair Larry Kobrovsky said he was considering challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham.
Kobrovsky ran for a previous version of this seat in 2010, but he took fourth place in the primary with just 11% of the vote. In 2017, Kobrovsky considered challenging iconoclastic GOP Rep. Mark Sanford, but he decided not to do it. Sanford ended up falling in that primary to Katie Arrington, who lost the general election to Cunningham in a 51-49 upset. Kobrovsky is stepping down from his party post, and a successor was elected on Thursday.
● House: Last November saw record-setting levels of correlation between 2018's election results for the House and the results of 2016's presidential election in each congressional district. Put more concretely, if a district voted for Hillary Clinton, it very likely backed a Democrat for the House in the midterms; conversely, if district went for Donald Trump, it very likely sent a Republican to Congress last year.
Nevertheless, 34 members hold congressional districts after last year's elections that voted for the opposite party for president. The distribution between the two parties, however, is lopsided. As shown in this map these "crossover" districts include 31 Democrats but just three Republicans. We've also put together a chart, which you can find here, detailing all of the members in these crossover districts, along with statistics on each.
Thanks to historic polarization between the two parties, the 2020 elections are expected to follow the trend of this decade's House elections and once again see significant straight-ticket voting with Trump leading the way for Republicans next year. Consequently, these 34 seats are likely to see some of the most heavily contested 2020 House races.
With Democrats defending their 235-seat majority, they can't afford to lose more than 17 districts if they are to remain in control of the House. And they'll be defending difficult turf: Since Donald Trump won 228 districts to Hillary Clinton's 207, Republicans could gain a majority simply by flipping some of the 31 Democratic seats that Trump carried. Indeed, thanks to widespread Republican gerrymandering, it's possible that Republicans could once again reclaim the majority despite losing the popular vote.
To avoid that outcome, Democrats will focus much of their efforts on defending the seats mapped above. They'll also go on offense once again: While there are only three Republicans still sitting in seats Clinton won, there are many others who occupy districts that have been trending against the GOP, particularly in affluent, well-educated suburban areas.
Mayoral
● Nashville, TN Mayor: Campaign finance reports are out covering the period of Jan. 16 through March 31, and Democratic Mayor David Briley has a large financial lead over his two main rivals ahead of the Aug. 1 nonpartisan primary. Briley raised $189,000 during this time, and he ended March with $416,000 cash-on-hand.
Conservative Carol Swain, a retired Vanderbilt professor who lost last year's special election to Briley 54-23, took in $118,000 and had $116,000 on-hand. The Tennessean's Yihyun Jeong writes that Swain has been a favored donor of Nashville's honky-tonk owners, who have been becoming more politically active in recent years.
Democratic state Rep. John Ray Clemmons took in $41,000 during this time. Clemmons, who previously loaned his campaign $100,000, had $104,000 in the bank. As a member of the state legislature, Clemmons is bound by some unusual financial restrictions. During the legislative session, which began in early January and will last until April 26, Clemmons is allowed to raise money from donors in Nashville but not from anywhere else in the state.
● Philadelphia, PA Mayor: If Mayor Jim Kenney has any trouble in the May 21 Democratic primary, it won't be because of a lack of money. Kenney had $656,000 in the bank on April 1 while his two intra-party opponents, state Sen. Anthony Williams and former City Controller Alan Butkovitz, each had about $50,000 to spend. However, Kenney has been on the receiving end of $408,000 in TV ads from the American Beverage Association, which opposes the city's soda tax used to fund pre-K and other programs. The ABA's ads didn't tell viewers to vote out Kenney but implored them to tell the City Council to "stand up to" the mayor and repeal the soda tax.
On Thursday, Kenney also unveiled endorsements from Gov. Tom Wolf, Sen. Bob Casey, and Philadelphia's three U.S. House members. Williams also picked up the backing of former Mayor John Street, who left office in early 2008. Street made it very clear how little he likes his successor, declaring that Kenney "really doesn't like neighborhoods" and has failed to reduce the city's crime and poverty rates.
