The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Ballot Measures: Daily Kos Elections' Stephen Wolf takes a look at 24 ballot measures happening around the country this election season that would reshape how elections and voting work, with several measures seeking to protect fair elections while others attempt to undermine them. Major issues include redistricting reform, changes to the electoral system itself to help promote majority winners, efforts to lower the voting age in local elections, and even Republican-backed efforts to restrict future ballot initiatives after voters in several states used them to strengthen representative democracy at the ballot box.
Key elections include whether to adopt redistricting reform in Virginia or variations of instant-runoff voting in Alaska and Massachusetts, Colorado's membership in the National Popular Vote Compact for the Electoral College, and Puerto Rico's latest referendum on statehood. Be sure to bookmark this spreadsheet for Election Night as results come in.
Senate
● ME-Sen: The Senate Leadership Fund is up with another commercial arguing that Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon was too slow to take action against a state representative and teacher named Dillon Bates who had been accused of having improper relationships with his students. Republicans began running commercials about Bates back in June, and Team Red seems to think this story can still damage Gideon with less than two weeks to go before Election Day.
As we previously wrote, The Bollard reported in August of 2018 that Bates had "engaged in at least three romantic and/or sexual relationships with high school girls over the past half decade." That same day, Gideon responded by calling for Bates, who earlier in the year had said he would not seek re-election, to resign immediately.
A spokeswoman for Gideon acknowledged that the speaker had known about the allegations for "several months," but that she had not found any proof to back them up at the time. Gideon's office added, "At that point, we told Rep. Bates that if any evidence or new information was presented that indicated there could be truth to what was then a rumor, that we would ask him to resign immediately."
Police in Westbrook, where Bates worked as a teacher, told WMTW after The Bollard article was published that they could not verify the allegations and were not actively investigating him. Bates maintained his innocence but resigned shortly afterwards.
● MS-Sen: The Lincoln Project is out with a commercial arguing that, while Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is "weak" and has "done nothing," Democrat Mike Espy will be a strong senator. There is no word on the size of the buy.
● TX-Sen: The newly-formed progressive PAC Future Forward recently began airing ads in support of Democrat MJ Hegar, and OpenSecrets reports that the group has spent at least $4 million here so far.
● Polls:
- AK-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Protect Our Care: Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 44, Al Gross (D): 41, John Howe (Alaska Independence): 5 (50-45 Trump) (Aug.: 43-43 tie)
- AZ-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Mark Kelly (D): 54, Martha McSally (R-Inc): 43 (51-45 Biden) (early Oct.: 51-43 Kelly)
- AZ-Sen: Rasmussen Reports: Kelly (D): 46, McSally (R-inc): 44 (48-46 Biden)
- AZ-Sen: RMG Research for PoliticalIQ: Mark Kelly (D): 46, Martha McSally (R-inc): 39 (47-46 Biden)
- IA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) for the Center for American Greatness: Theresa Greenfield (D): 48, Joni Ernst (R-inc): 43, Rick Stewart (L): 5 (45-45 presidential tie)
- IA-Sen: Monmouth University: Ernst (R-inc): 47, Greenfield (D): 47, Stewart (L): 1, Herzog (I): 1 (48-47 Trump) (Sept.: 47-47 tie)
- IA-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Ernst (R-inc): 45, Greenfield (D): 44, Stewart (L): 2, Herzog (I): 2 (46-43 Biden) (Sept.: 42-40 Greenfield)
- KS-Sen: co/efficient (R) for Keep Kansas Great: Roger Marshall (R): 51, Barbara Bollier (D): 39, Jason Buckley (L): 2 (56-39 Trump) (Sept.: 43-39 Marshall)
- KS-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Protect Our Care: Bollier (D): 43, Marshall (R): 43, Buckley (L): 5 (54-42 Trump) (Aug.: 43-42 Marshall)
- KY-Sen: Mason-Dixon: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 51, Amy McGrath (D): 42, Brad Barron (L): 4 (56-39 Trump)
- MI-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Gary Peters (D-inc): 51, John James (R): 46 (51-44 Biden) (early Oct.: 51-43 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters: Peters (D-inc): 50, James (R): 45 (52-44 Biden) (mid-Oct.: 52-44 Peters)
- MN-Sen: Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos: Tina Smith (D-inc): 54, Jason Lewis (R): 43 (53-43 Biden)
- NC-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Cal Cunningham (D): 51, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 45 (50-47 Biden) (early Oct.: 50-46 Cunningham)
- NC-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters: Tillis (R-inc): 47, Cunningham (D): 47 (49-47 Biden) (mid-Oct.: 46-42 Cunningham)
- TX-Sen: Quinnipiac University: John Cornyn (R-inc): 49, MJ Hegar (D): 43 (47-47 presidential tie) (Sept.: 50-42 Cornyn)
AK-Sen: A few things have changed since PPP's last poll back in August. The firm identified Al Gross, a registered independent who has the Democratic nomination, as an independent in its last survey, but this new poll lists him as a Democrat. There's a good reason for this move: The state had originally planned to issue ballots that included both the candidates' party affiliation and which party nominated them, but in a last-minute September decision protested by Democrats, the state elections director announced that only the latter information would be included.
PPP's newest survey also includes John Howe, the nominee of the Alaska Independence Party, for the first time.
AZ-Sen: RMG Research is run by Scott Rasmussen, who founded Rasmussen Reports but has not been affiliated with it since 2013.
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: The Republican firm Cygnal, polling on behalf of the conservative Ready Education Network, finds GOP Gov. Mike Parson leading Democrat Nicole Galloway 48-42. The release did not include presidential numbers.
House
● CA-53: SurveyUSA takes another look at this all-Democratic general election for the San Diego Union-Tribune and KGTV-TV and finds former State Department official Sara Jacobs leading San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez 40-27; respondents also favor Joe Biden 66-26. SurveyUSA had Jacobs ahead by a similar 38-24 spread almost a month ago, and we haven't seen any other numbers in the intervening time.
● LA-05: Republican state Rep. Lance Harris is airing an otherwise boring ad ahead of the Nov. 3 all-party primary that is made unsettling by his weird visual choices. Harris, clad in a dark jacket, stands alone in an empty studio in front of a black backdrop in an image that's a bit reminiscent of Christine O'Donnell's infamous "I'm Not a Witch" spot from a decade ago. (No, we can't believe that commercial is 10 years old either.)
Harris explains, "No politician's here propping me up or telling you who to vote for," and he goes on to talk about his time as a businessman, farmer, and conservative legislator. The state representative then declares he's "standing on the life I've lived and the work I've done" as video is projected onto the floor below of Harris on a tractor and in front of a microphone.
Harris faces four fellow Republicans and four Democrats next month in the contest to succeed Republican Rep. Ralph Abraham, who decided to retire shortly after losing last year's contest for governor. With so many candidates it's going to be all but impossible for anyone to win the majority of the vote they'd need to avert a Dec. 5 runoff in this northeastern Louisiana district; it's also possible that both the top-two vote-getters will be Republicans in this 63-34 Trump seat.
Harris' main intra-party opponent looks like Luke Letlow, a former Abraham chief of staff who has his old boss' endorsement. Letlow outraised Harris $252,000 to $150,000 during the third quarter, outspent him $412,000 to $148,000 during this period, and still had a wide $342,000 to $120,000 cash-on-hand lead at the end of September. Ouachita Parish police juror Scotty Robinson is also running for Team Red (in Louisiana, a parish police jury is similar to a county commission or board of supervisors), but he raised and spent a mere $19,000 for the quarter and reported having just under $300 left.
On the Democratic side, Grambling State University official Martin Lemelle reported raising $128,000, while none of Team Blue's other candidates hauled in more than $7,000.
● SC-02: Republican Rep. Joe Wilson faces his first well-funded Democratic opponent in a decade, and he's now going up with his first negative spot less than two weeks ahead of Election Day. Wilson, you won't be shocked to learn, portrays Democrat Adair Ford Boroughs as too progressive for this seat.
● Polls:
FL-27: The only other survey we've seen of this contest was a mid-September 1892 Polling for the NRCC that had Maria Elvira Salazar leading freshman Rep. Donna Shalala 46-43. If the NRCC believed that Salazar was ahead two years after she lost to Shalala 52-46, though, the committee has yet to act on it. While the neighboring 26th District has attracted over $10 million in outside spending from both sides, no major group from either party has run ads in the Shalala-Salazar contest so far.
This seat, which is located in the southern Miami area and Coral Gables, supported Hillary Clinton 59-39, so Shalala's poll finds a notable drop for the top of the ticket. Salazar did outraise Shalala $1.1 million to $822,000 during the third quarter, though Shalala narrowly outspent her during this time and ended September with a small $1.3 million to $1.1 million cash-on-hand lead.
IA-04: Earlier this week, Randy Feenstra released a poll from American Viewpoint that found him ahead 54-31. J.D. Scholten came shockingly close to unseating white nationalist Rep. Steve King in 2018 in this 61-30 Trump seat, but both parties have acted like this western Iowa district is safe for the GOP ever since Feenstra beat King in the June Republican primary.
OH-10: We haven't seen any polls here other than Desiree Tims' earlier internal. So far, there has not been any major outside spending in this Dayton-based seat, which backed Trump 51-44 four years ago.
Veteran Rep. Mike Turner has always won re-election by double digits, but this time, he's facing an opponent with more resources. Tims outraised Turner $983,000 to $421,000 during the third quarter and outspent him $768,000 to $637,000, and she ended September with a $551,000 to $361,000 cash-on-hand lead.
PA-10: This GOP internal came after national Democrats publicized several surveys showing Eugene DePasquale leading Scott Perry. While Tarrance's release did not include presidential numbers, Team Blue's polls found Joe Biden out front in this Harrisburg-area seat that supported Trump 52-43 in 2016.
TX-06: The only other poll we've seen here was a June DCCC Analytics poll that found freshman Rep. Ron Wright leading Stephen Daniel 45-41, which is the exact margin that Daniel's new poll finds. So far, though, there has not been any outside spending here. This seat, which includes Arlington and rural areas south of Dallas, backed Trump 54-42 in 2016, but last cycle, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz carried it just 51-48.
VA-02: The only other poll we've seen here was a July Tarrance Group internal for the Congressional Leadership Fund that showed a 48-48 deadlock. The CLF spent a hefty $3.2 million through Sunday compared to $1.4 million from Democratic groups, though Rep. Elaine Luria has enjoyed a large financial edge over Scott Taylor throughout the race.
This seat, which includes Virginia Beach, backed Trump 49-45, but Luria unseated Taylor 51-49 two years later.
Ballot Measures
● FL Ballot: Civiqs' new poll for Daily Kos finds 51% of Florida voters opposing Amendment 3, which would establish a top-two primary system in state-level races like governor and state legislature starting in 2024, while only 36% support it; respondents also favor Joe Biden 51-47 here. Amendment 3 would not apply to federal elections such as the presidential or congressional contests due to limitations on the scope of any single initiative.
We've seen only two other surveys in the last month asking about this important ballot question, and they've each found very different numbers than Civiqs. A mid-September poll from Monmouth University found Amendment 3 passing 63-21, which is more than the 60% of the vote that constitutional amendments need in order to go into effect in Florida. An early October survey from the University of North Florida, meanwhile, also found the yes ahead by a large 58-36 margin. As we've mentioned before, though, ballot measures are notoriously difficult to poll, so the widely divergent results on a question like this are not unusual.
Civiqs also asked respondents about another Florida constitutional amendment that Daily Kos Elections is tracking this year. The firm shows Amendment 1, which would rewrite the Florida constitution to emphasize that "only a citizen" may vote instead of "every citizen," ahead 53-39, which is considerably less than the 78-18 lead that UNF found. (Monmouth did not ask about it last month.)
As we recently explained in our piece about this year's crucial voting rights ballot measures, Amendment 1, like similar initiatives in Alabama and Colorado, would have no immediate effect on the status quo, but it's still important. This measure would prevent local governments from experimenting with letting legal permanent residents who lack citizenship vote in local elections, something a handful of small localities in the U.S. and many European democracies already allow.
● St. Louis, MO Ballot: The city of St. Louis will vote next month on Proposition D, a ballot measure that would make the Missouri city only the second municipality in America to adopt an "approval voting" system for its local elections.
As we've written before in the Voting Rights Roundup, all the contenders would face off on one nonpartisan ballot, and voters could cast as many votes as there are candidates, with up to one vote per candidate. The top-two vote-getters would then advance to a general election. If Prop. D passes, it would go into effect in time for next year's elections for mayor and other city offices.
The goal of this method of voting is to eliminate the "spoiler" problem, where a candidate wins without majority support only because their opposition was divided. The approval approach attempts to ensure that the most broadly acceptable candidate prevails. Fargo, North Dakota is the only other American city that uses approval voting, though unlike the proposed St. Louis system, there is no runoff there.
St. Louis currently operates under very different electoral rules for its local elections: The candidates compete in party primaries, and the Democratic nominees usually have nothing to worry about in the general election in this very blue city. It only takes a simple plurality to win the primary, so candidates don't need to come anywhere close to winning a majority of the vote.
Lyda Krewson, for instance, won the Democratic nomination for mayor in 2017 just 32-30: Krewson is white and defeated three prominent Black opponents in a city with a small African American plurality, and it's quite possible that the outcome would have been different under a different system of voting. Krewson is up for re-election next year, and with a number of local politicians considering challenging her, including two of her 2017 rivals, she very well could win again with just a plurality if the status quo remains in place.
However, while Black mayoral candidates arguably have the most to gain, at least in 2021, if St. Louis adopts the approval voting system, the city's Aldermanic Black Caucus opposes Prop. D. The Caucus said that its adoption would mean the "elimination of the Democratic Party in the city" and declared, "Proposition D obscures true debates and issue-driven dialogue among candidates and eliminates genuine binary choices between two top-tier candidates."
Prop. D does have the backing, though, of other Black politicians including city Treasurer Tishaura Jones, who narrowly lost the 2017 mayoral race to Krewson and may seek a rematch next year.
International
● Bolivia: Almost exactly a year after a deeply disputed election resulted in long-serving President Evo Morales resigning and leaving the country, his left-wing MAS Party looks to have retaken power in a surprisingly large victory. Luis Arce, who served as finance minister under Morales, won 54% of the vote in initial results, while centrist former president Carlos Mesa took 29% and right-wing businessman Luis Fernando Camacho finished third with 14%.
The outcome brings hope that Bolivia will return to democratic government after an interim right-wing government led the country for the past year. In 2019, after questions of election manipulation were raised by the Organization of American States (the accuracy of which has since been called into doubt), Morales and his allies in the line of succession were pressured into resigning, allowing right-wing Sen. Jeanine Anez to take power. Anez's elevation brought out major protests and resulted in clashes with the police and military that left several protesters dead.
Soon after, pro-Morales and anti-Morales legislators agreed to a compromise that would annul the 2019 election, schedule a new election, and bar Morales from running again while rolling back a number of aggressive policies Anez had put in place in response to the protests. Anez, who has continued as interim president, had originally promised not to run in the new elections herself, but then declared anyway, only to drop out in September after polls showed her in fourth place behind fellow conservative Camacho.
● New Zealand: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party won a landslide victory after a successful first term on Saturday, becoming the first party to ever win a majority of seats under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional representation system since its adoption a quarter century ago.
Labour won 64 out of 120 seats with 49% of the vote, soaring 12 percentage points from 2017, while the conservative National Party won just 35 seats and 27% of the vote, a fall of 17 points. Labour had previously relied on both the populist, anti-immigration NZ First Party and the left-wing Green Party to govern but will now be able to run the country on its own. Interestingly, though, Ardern has not ruled out forming a coalition with the Greens once more, which could pull the next government in a more leftward direction.
Ardern had been widely credited with a strong response to the COVID-19 pandemic, successfully eradicating the virus from the island nation and allowing its people to return to a semblance of normality that most other countries can still only dream of. She also guided the country through twin crises in 2019, when an anti-Muslim terrorist killed 51 at two Christchurch mosques and when a volcano erupted, killing 21.
Among smaller parties, the libertarian ACT Party won 10 seats, a nine-seat gain, and the Green Party also won 10 seats, a pickup of two seats. The indigenous rights focused Maori Party returned to parliament with one seat, while NZ First lost all nine of its seats.
NZ First had played kingmaker after the last election, choosing to support Labour over the National Party and bringing Ardern to power. However, the party's nationalist focus was a poor fit for an election occurring in the midst of a pandemic, and it likely suffered among its more conservative members for allowing Labour to govern.
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