The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● San Diego County, CA Board of Supervisors: A single race on Nov. 3 will determine whether Democrats will take their first majority on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors in over 30 years or if Republicans will maintain control of California's second-most populous county.
Republican incumbent Kristin Gaspar is defending District 3, a coastal seat that supported Hillary Clinton 57-37 before backing Democrat Gavin Newsom 57-43 in the 2018 gubernatorial contest, from former Treasury official Terra Lawson-Remer. Each party has already secured two of the other districts on this five-member body, so it will be up to the voters in District 3 which party will have a 3-2 majority.
San Diego County, which is home to the city of San Diego and many of its suburbs, spent decades as a GOP stronghold up and down the ballot. After backing FDR during his final campaign in 1944, the county would not support another Democratic presidential nominee until Bill Clinton narrowly took it in 1992. The county went back into the GOP column for the following three presidential elections, but Barack Obama went on to carry it during both of his presidential campaigns. Hillary Clinton also scored a 56-37 victory in 2016, which was Team Blue's best showing since FDR's 1936 landslide.
Campaign Action
Republicans, though, have continued to dominate the county government despite this big shift to the left. Team Red even earned a 5-0 majority in 2016 after Gasper won a four-year term by winning 50.3-49.7 against Democratic incumbent Dave Roberts, whose staffers accused him of acting inappropriately.
The following cycle went better for Democrats, though, when former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat, won a landslide victory in one of the two seats that were on the 2018 ballot. Gasper herself sought a promotion that year by running for the open 49th Congressional District, but she ended up taking just fifth place in the top-two primary.
That brings us to 2020, when the other three supervisor seats are on the ballot. Team Blue already scored a pickup in the open 1st District in the March primary when two Democrats advanced to the general, while Republicans kept the open 2nd District after two of its candidates prevailed. That leaves the contest between Gaspar and Lawson-Remer as the decisive race that will decide control of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Rep. Ruben Gallego, who considered running for this very seat last year, stars in a Spanish-language commercial for Democrat Mark Kelly.
● Polls:
- AK-Sen: Change Research (D) for Al Gross: Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 47, Al Gross (D): 44, John Howe (Alaska Independence): 3
- AZ-Sen: Basswood Research (R) for American Action Forum: Martha McSally (R-inc): 49, Mark Kelly (D): 47 (48-48 presidential tie) (Aug.: 48-48 tie)
- AZ-Sen: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for Center for American Greatness (R): Martha McSally (R-inc): 50, Mark Kelly (D): 47 (47-46 Trump) (Sept.: 48-44 Kelly)
- GA-Sen-A: Landmark Communications (R) for WSB: David Perdue (R-inc): 50, Jon Ossoff (D): 45 (49-45 Trump) (early Oct.: 47-46 Perdue)
- GA-Sen-A: Opinion Insight (R) for American Action Forum: Perdue (R-inc): 44, Ossoff (D): 44 (49-45 Biden) (Sept.: 44-44 tie)
- GA-Sen-B: Landmark Communications (R) for WSB: Raphael Warnock (D): 33, Doug Collins (R): 27, Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 24 (49-45 Trump) (early Oct.: Warnock: 36, Loeffler: 26, Collins: 23)
- GA-Sen-B: Opinion Insight (R) for American Action Forum: Warnock (D): 31, Loeffler (R-inc): 19, Collins (R): 18, Lieberman (D): 3 (49-45 Biden) (Sept.: Collins: 20, Warnock: 17, Loeffler: 17)
- IA-Sen: Opinion Insight (R) for American Action Forum: Joni Ernst (R-inc): 45, Theresa Greenfield (D): 44 (47-45 Biden) (Sept.: 49-43 Ernst)
- IA-Sen: RMG Research for PoliticalIQ: Greenfield (D): 46, Ernst (R-inc): 43, Stewart (L): 2 (47-47 presidential tie) (July: 40-36 Greenfield)
- MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA for Wood-TV: Gary Peters (D-inc): 45, John James (R): 39 (48-39 Biden) (mid-Oct.: 45-39 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Opinion Insight (R) for American Action Forum: Peters (D-inc): 49, James (R): 41 (51-42 Biden) (Sept.: 46-42 Peters)
- MT-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Steve Daines (R-inc): 49, Steve Bullock (D): 46 (49-43 Trump) (Sept.: 45-44 Daines)
- NC-Sen: Data for Progress (D) for Crooked Media and Indivisible: Cal Cunningham (D): 46, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 42, Shannon Bray (L): 1, Kevin Hayes (C): 1 (48-44 Biden) (early Oct.: 50-39 Cunningham)
- NC-Sen: Meredith College: Cunningham (D): 43, Tillis (R-inc): 38, Bray (L): 4, Hayes (C): 1 (48-44 Biden) (Sept.: 43-42 Cunningham)
- NC-Sen: Rasmussen Reports: Tillis (R-inc): 45, Cunningham (D): 45 (49-48 Trump) (Sept.: 47-44 Cunningham)
- TN-Sen: Cygnal (R) for Ready Education Network: Bill Hagerty (R): 56, Marquita Bradshaw (D): 36
All of these polls for the conservative American Action Forum were at least a week old when they were publicized on Friday, though some go back further than that. The Arizona survey, for instance, was in the field Oct. 3-5, while the Michigan survey was done Oct. 3-6. (To put that in perspective, Donald Trump announced in the early morning hours of Oct. 2 that he'd tested positive for COVID-19.) AAF also released numbers in September that we had not previously seen.
AZ-Sen: These polls are the first we've seen in months to give Sen. Martha McSally a lead. Indeed, the last survey to show anything other than a lead for Mark Kelly was an early August poll from the GOP firm OnMessage for the conservative Heritage Action, which found a 48-48 tie.
Gubernatorial
● Polls:
- MT-Gov: Siena College for the New York Times: Greg GIanforte (R): 48, Mike Cooney (D): 44, Lyman Bishop (L): 4 (49-43 Trump) (Sept.: 45-39 Gianforte)
- NC-Gov: Meredith College: Roy Cooper (D-inc): 52, Dan Forest (R): 34 (48-44 Biden) (Sept.: 50-39 Cooper)
- WV-Gov: Triton Polling & Research (R) for WMOV: Jim Justice (R-inc): 53, Ben Salango (D): 35 (58-38 Trump) (Sept.: 48-37 Justice)
House
● FL-15: On Friday, the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund became the first of the big four outside groups to air ads in this GOP-held open seat, though it was not immediately clear how much the PAC was spending.
We've seen two polls of the contest for this central Florida district this month, but they very much disagreed on how competitive things are here. An early October survey from DCCC Analytics showed Republican Scott Franklin with a small 42-39 lead over Democrat Alan Cohn, while Donald Trump led only 46-45 in a constituency he carried 53-43 four years ago. A mid-October St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics, though, had Franklin and Trump up 49-41 and 51-46, respectively.
● IN-05: The DCCC's new commercial against Republican Victoria Spartz argues she's "refused to tell us where she got the million dollars she loaned her campaign, raising serious concerns that she's hiding even more conflicts of interest," which is a topic Team Blue has hit in other spots here.
Democrats aren't the only ones asking how Spartz has been able to self-fund, either. Reporter Adam Wren tweeted on Oct. 13 that she'd "loaned more to her campaign over the cycle than what she disclosed in available cash in her personal financial disclosure," and that her team sent him a "cease & desist letter for my reporting on her finances."
● MN-02: The 8th Circuit Court of Appeals has rejected Republican Tyler Kistner's appeal of a recent ruling that reinstated the election for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District for Nov. 3.
Under state law, Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon had ordered the election be postponed until February after Legal Marijuana Party Now candidate Adam Weeks died last month, but the appeals court agreed with the lower court that this law conflicts with a federal statute requiring that elections for Congress be held the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Kistner says he will appeal to the Supreme Court.
● NE-02: Former Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford is starring in a commercial for Republican incumbent Don Bacon, who unseated him in a nasty 2016 contest. Ashford reminds the audience that the two men ran against each other but have since been able to work together to secure a new VA hospital and a runway. Ashford doesn't mention Democratic nominee Kara Eastman, who beat Ashford in their 2018 primary and defeated Ashford's wife, attorney Ann Ferlic Ashford, for the nomination just this year.
● Polls:
- MT-AL: Siena College for the New York Times: Matt Rosendale (R): 50, Kathleen Williams (D): 46 (49-43 Trump) (Sept.: 44-41 Williams)
- OH-12: Public Policy Polling (D) for Alaina Shearer: Troy Balderson (R-inc): 48, Alaina Shearer (D): 44 (48-47 Trump)
- VA-05: Public Policy Polling (D) for 314 Action: Cameron Webb (D): 46, Bob Good (R): 43 (50-47 Trump) (June: 43-41 Good)
- WA-03: DCCC Analytics: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-inc): 49, Carolyn Long (D): 47 (45-43 Biden)
OH-12: This is the first poll we've seen in the contest between Republican Rep. Troy Balderson and his Democratic rival, businesswoman Alaina Shearer, in this 53-42 Trump seat in the northern Columbus area.
Balderson defeated Democrat Danny O'Connor just 50-49 in an August 2018 special election and held him off 51-47 in their rematch a few months later, but neither party has shown any obvious interest in this year's race so far. O'Connor, for his part, is seeking re-election next month as Franklin County recorder without any opposition.
Mayoral
● El Paso, TX Mayor: Dee Margo won an all-GOP 2017 runoff in heavily blue El Paso with an endorsement from retiring Democratic Mayor Oscar Leeser, but Leeser is looking to regain his old post this year. Four other contenders are running against Margo including attorney Veronica Carbajal, who touts herself as the most progressive candidate, and businessman Carlos Gallinar, who identifies as a Democrat.
Margo previously served in the state legislature as a Republican, but he has a hostile relationship with Donald Trump. In early 2019, Margo corrected Trump after the White House falsely insisted that a border fence had led to a dramatic collapse in the city's crime rate; Trump responded by saying at an El Paso rally, "I don't care if a mayor is a Republican or a Democrat. They are full of crap if they say [the border barrier] doesn't make a difference."
The two clashed again later that year after Trump arrived in the city after a man who allegedly wanted to kill Hispanics was charged with murdering 23 people at a local Walmart. Margo said that, after he again corrected Trump about local crime statistics, Trump responded by attacking him as a "RINO" (Republican in Name Only).
Past mayoral contests took place in odd-numbered years, and this is the first time that it will occur in a presidential year. All the candidates will face off on one nonpartisan ballot on Nov. 3, and a runoff would take place on a later day if no one wins a majority of the vote.
Other Races
● Orange County, CA Board of Supervisors: While Republicans are guaranteed to keep control of the Orange County Board of Supervisors next month, Democrats have a chance to make a big gain in this historically red Southern California county that would put them within striking distance of taking control in 2022 for the first time in living memory.
The only race on the November ballot is District 1, where Republican incumbent Andrew Do faces Democratic Westminster Councilmember Sergio Contreras in a 64-30 Clinton seat that Democrat Gavin Newsom also took 59-41 in the 2018 gubernatorial race. Republicans successfully held another seat, District 3, after incumbent Don Wagner took a majority in the March primary, but Do wasn't so lucky. While law enforcement organizations spent to try to secure him an outright win in round one, Do ended up taking just 42% of the vote, with Contreras and the other two Democrats earning a combined 58%.
Do has once again benefited from heavy spending from these groups, but he got some bad news in early October. The state's California Fair Political Practices Commission, which is tasked with enforcing election laws, informed Do's campaign that it was investigating allegations that he'd circumvented donation limits in what it called "an illegal transfer of funds, with the Orange County Republican Party acting as an intermediary in a money laundering scheme perpetrated by Supervisor Andrew Do."
If Contreras prevails next month, then the GOP majority on the Board of Supervisors would be down to 3-2. The other three seats―one held by a Democrat and the other two in GOP hands―are up in 2022, so a Contreras victory this year would leave his party in a better position to take control next cycle. And despite the county decisively flipping blue at the presidential level in 2016 and House level two years afterward, Supervisor Doug Chaffee’s 2018 victory was the first time Democrats have won any seat on the board since 2006 and only the second time since the 1986 elections, so gaining a future majority would be truly historic.
Ad Roundup
Note to all campaigns: Tuesday is the last day we will be accepting new TV ads for inclusion in the Morning Digest this election cycle, so get 'em to us by that afternoon if you want 'em in our Ad Roundup!