We're in for another eventful night on Tuesday with primaries and runoffs taking place in six states across the nation. However, with the coronavirus pandemic fueling a surge in mail voting, election watchers everywhere should expect that we might not learn the results in every race until many days later.
The pandemic has also altered the election in another important way: Four of the states on Tuesday's docket postponed races that were set for earlier in the year, making for an unusually busy late June primary night.
Kentucky, New York, and Virginia are holding primaries in key races for state and federal offices, while Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Carolina are conducting primary runoffs. In Mississippi and South Carolina, runoffs are mandatory in races where no candidate took a majority of the vote in the primary; North Carolina, meanwhile, is hosting runoffs in any contests where no one cleared 30% in the first round, and where the trailing candidate has officially requested a runoff.
New York and South Carolina always intended to hold elections Tuesday, but Kentucky and North Carolina had both planned on mid-May contests, while Mississippi's runoffs were postponed from late March and Virginia's primaries from earlier in June.
These elections will unfold differently in each state, and we emphasize once more that we may not know all the winners for days. Kentucky’s Board of Elections, for instance, has advised all counties to wait until June 30 before releasing any results, while New York will not count its absentee ballots for at least a week after the primary.
Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections when the polls close in Virginia. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the presidential and down-ballot primaries in all 50 states—many of which have been changed—as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
Kentucky
Polls close at 6 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern Time Zone, and one hour later in the remainder of the state.
KY-Sen (D) (63-33 Trump, 60-38 Romney): Retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised millions last cycle for an unsuccessful House bid last cycle, has long looked like the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nod to take on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, but the contest has become much more competitive in recent weeks.
State Rep. Charles Booker, who has been a highly visible presence at protests of police violence, has attracted renewed attention and donations during the final stretch of the campaign, and he’s run ads portraying McGrath as out-of-step with the current political moment. McGrath, who has the support of the DSCC, has used her still-enormous financial advantage to air commercials during the last week of the campaign emphasizing her progressive credentials. A third candidate, Marine veteran Mike Broihier, is also in, but he’s attracted little attention.
Two polls were released late in the campaign:. A YouGov Blue survey for Booker showed him trailing McGrath 49-39, followed by a Civiqs poll for Data for Progress that had Booker ahead 44-36.
KY-04 (R) (65-29 Trump, 63-35 Romney): Rep. Thomas Massie, an idiosyncratic ultraconservative who often votes against his party's leadership, faces a primary challenge from attorney Todd McMurtry in this safely red northern Kentucky seat.
This contest attracted national attention at the end of March after Massie delayed a $2 trillion coronavirus relief bill, prompting Donald Trump to respond with a string of tweets calling for the congressman to be thrown out of the Republican Party. However, Trump never took any further action against Massie, and the story may not have damaged the incumbent much at home. Massie’s allies at the Club for Growth released a poll a week before the primary showing him destroying McMurtry 77-11, and McMurtry’s side never released any contradictory numbers.
Mississippi
Polls close at 8 PM ET/ 7 PM local time.
New York
Polls close at 9 PM ET.
NY-01 (D) (54-42 Trump, 50-49 Obama): Three notable Democrats are competing to take on GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin in an eastern Long Island seat that swung hard to Trump in 2016. The best-financed candidate is 2018 nominee Perry Gershon, a wealthy businessman who held Zeldin to a surprisingly close 51-47 win last cycle. He's competing with Stony Brook University professor Nancy Goroff, who is backed by EMILY’s List, and Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming.
Two recent internal polls have found a close race. A late May survey for Fleming showed her tied 29-29 with Goroff, while Gershon was in third with 22%. A poll taken around that same time for Goroff, though, found Gershon edging her 29-27, with Fleming well behind at 17.
NY-02 (R) (53-44 Trump, 52-47 Obama): Longtime GOP Rep. Peter King is retiring from this competitive seat on Long Island's South Shore, and two Republican assemblymen are competing to succeed him. King, along with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, is supporting Andrew Garbarino over Mike LiPetri. Garbarino has decisively outspent LiPetri, and he’s launched some negative ads against his colleague as well. The winner will likely face Babylon Town Councilor Jackie Gordon, who doesn’t have any serious opposition in the Democratic primary.
NY-09 (D) (83-14 Clinton, 85-14 Obama): Democratic Rep. Yvette Clarke defeated community organizer Adem Bunkeddeko in an unexpectedly close 53-47 primary last cycle, and Bunkeddeko is back for a rematch.
This time, though, three other candidates are also running for this safely blue seat in central Brooklyn including New York City Councilman Chaim Deutsch, a self-described "conservative Democrat” who has a record of consistently opposing LGBTQ rights.
Clarke outspent Bunkeddeko about $225,000 to $155,000 from April 1 to June 3 (the time the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), while Deutsch deployed $100,000.
NY-10 (D) (78-19 Clinton, 74-25 Obama): Longtime Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler faces a primary challenge from Lindsey Boylan, a former economic advisor to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in a safely blue seat that includes the West Side of Manhattan and part of southern Brooklyn. Nadler, who chairs the powerful House Judiciary Committee, outspent Boylan by a modest $210,000 to $150,000 margin during the pre-primary period, though the incumbent had far more left for the final weeks. A few other candidates are also on the ballot.
NY-12 (D) (83-13 Clinton, 77-22 Obama): Attorney Suraj Patel is once again challenging Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who beat him 60-40 in an expensive 2018 primary for this seat centered around the East Side of Manhattan. However, while Patel outspent the congresswoman last time, Maloney outpaced him about $525,000 to $265,000 during the pre-primary period, and overall she's outspent him better than 3-to-1. Two other candidates are also running here, though they’ve spent little.
NY-14 (D) (78-20 Clinton, 81-18 Obama): Freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who pulled off one of the most astonishing primary upsets of all time when she unseated longtime Rep. Joe Crowley two years ago, now faces an intra-party challenge of her own. This contest, however, couldn't be more different, as AOC's chief rival, former CNBC anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, is coming at her from the right.
While it would be an even greater shock if Ocasio-Cortez were to lose to Caruso-Cabrera, who has a long history of conservative punditry, this has nevertheless been a very expensive race: AOC outspent Caruso-Cabrera, who has the support of the influential U.S. Chamber of Commerce, $1.3 million to $750,000 during the pre-primary period. Two other Democrats are also running for this safely blue seat in the East Bronx and northern Queens.
NY-15 (D) (94-5 Clinton, 97-3 Obama): Longtime Rep. José Serrano is retiring from the bluest district in the entire country, and 12 fellow Democrats are running to succeed him. However, the crowded field in this Bronx seat could allow New York City Councilman Ruben Diaz Sr., who has a long and ugly history of homophobia, to win the nomination with just a plurality.
The only poll we’ve seen was an early June survey from Data for Progress that showed Diaz narrowly leading fellow New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres 22-20, while Assemblyman Michael Blake, former New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, and activist Samelys Lopez were tied with 6% each. A few other candidates, including New York City Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez, are also on the ballot.
Torres identifies as Afro-Latino and would be both the first gay Latino and gay black man in Congress. He outspent Blake by a hefty $510,000 to $180,000 margin during the pre-primary period, while Diaz was much further back with $76,000. However, while none of the other candidates have the resources of Torres, who has also been by far the biggest beneficiary of outside spending, local progressives have split their endorsements among the non-Diaz options. Torres, Blake, and Mark-Viverito each have prominent unions on their side, while Lopez has the backing of neighboring Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Working Families Party.
NY-16 (D) (75-22 Clinton, 74-26 Obama): Longtime Rep. Eliot Engel faces a tough primary challenge from educator Jamaal Bowman for this diverse seat that straddles southern Westchester County and the northern Bronx. A few other Democrats are also in the running, but none of them have anything like Bowman’s resources or outside support.
While Engel originally looked like the heavy favorite, he was the subject of an unflattering—and widely shared—profile in the Atlantic in early May, which reported that he’d holed up in his D.C.-area home for the duration of the pandemic, not even returning to New York when the state's first coronavirus epicenter was identified in his district. Things got worse weeks later when he was caught on camera pleading for more time to speak at a press conference saying, “If I didn't have a primary, I wouldn't care,” a gaffe that Bowman and his allies quickly framed as a commentary on Engel's feelings about his race and his constituents.
Engel still has the backing of much of the party establishment, including Gov. Andrew Cuomo, but Bowman has the support of neighboring Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And while Engel remains well-funded, Bowman began raising serious money even before Engel’s comments drew national attention. Outside groups have also played a big role: Democratic Majority for Israel has spent about $1.5 million to help the incumbent, while the Justice Democrats and Working Families Party have deployed a comparable amount for Bowman. The only poll we’ve seen was a mid-June survey for Bowman from Data for Progress that gave the challenger a hefty 52-36 lead over Engel.
NY-17 (D) (59-38 Clinton, 57-42 Obama): Longtime Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey is retiring from a safely blue seat that includes much of Westchester County and all of Rockland County, and there’s a very crowded and expensive contest to succeed her.
The best-financed contender by far is self-funder Adam Schleifer, a former federal prosecutor and pharmaceutical heir who outspent former Obama administration official Evelyn Farkas about $3.3 million to $785,000 during the pre-primary period. Attorney Mondaire Jones, who is the favorite of local and national progressives, deployed $500,000.
State Sen. David Carlucci, who was a founding member of turncoat Independent Democratic Conference that for years handed power to Republicans in the Senate, has spent far less but has enjoyed higher name recognition than his rivals as the most prominent elected official in the race. Given the strong likelihood that a small plurality will be enough for victory, progressives have been especially concerned about Carlucci's chances and have rallied around Jones to stop him. Also in the mix are Assemblyman David Buchwald and former NARAL board chair Allison Fine.
Two polls were released in June, but they showed very different outcomes. A Data for Progress survey gave Carlucci the edge with 15% with Farkas, Jones, and Schleifer just behind with 12-13% each. However, a more recent survey for the Greenburgh Town Democratic Committee from Public Policy Polling had Jones, who would be the first gay African American man to serve in Congress, in the lead with 25%, while Farkas and Schleifer were tied for second with 14% each.
NY-24 (D) (49-45 Clinton, 57-41 Obama): Two Democrats are competing to take on GOP Rep. John Katko in this competitive Syracuse-area seat: 2018 nominee Dana Balter, who lost 53-47 last cycle, and Navy veteran Francis Conole. Balter released an early June survey from GBAO that gave her a 60-31 lead over Conole, and we haven’t seen any contradictory numbers here.
NY-27 (special & R): (60-35 Trump, 55-43 Romney): The special election to succeed disgraced GOP Rep. Chris Collins, who is scheduled to report to prison on Aug. 18 after pleading guilty to insider trading charges, will take place on the same day as the regular two-year primary for this conservative seat in the Buffalo area. (The special was originally set for April, but Gov. Andrew Cuomo moved it due to the coronavirus pandemic.)
County party leaders, rather than voters, select their nominees in New York special elections: Republicans tapped wealthy state Sen. Chris Jacobs, while Democrats chose 2018 nominee Nate McMurray. McMurray held Collins, who was under indictment at the time but had not yet pleaded guilty, to a narrow 49.1-48.7 win last cycle, but it will be very difficult for him to prevail under more normal circumstances in a seat this red.
Jacobs also faces intra-party opposition from attorney Beth Parlato and Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw in the regular primary, but the state senator still looks like the heavy favorite. Donald Trump has endorsed Jacobs, and Parlato and Mychajliw could end up splitting whatever anti-Jacobs vote there is. Perhaps most difficult of all, the challengers would need to convince most primary voters to reject Jacobs at the same time that they’re supporting him in the special. McMurray doesn't face any notable rivals for the Democratic nod for the November election.
North Carolina
Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
NC-11 (R) (57-40 Trump, 55-44 Romney): Businesswoman Lynda Bennett outpaced businessman Madison Cawthorn just 23-20 in the first round of the primary in March, but she looks like the favorite for the runoff. Bennett already enjoyed the support of former Rep. Mark Meadows, who resigned to become Donald Trump’s chief of staff, and Trump himself endorsed her in early June. The Freedom Caucus has also been running commercials boosting Bennett and targeting Cawthorn, while Protect Freedom PAC has aired ads for Cawthorn.
South Carolina
Polls close at 7 PM ET.
Virginia
Polls close at 7 PM ET.
VA-02 (R) (49-45 Trump, 51-48 Romney): Democrat Elaine Luria unseated Republican incumbent Scott Taylor 51-49 last cycle, and Taylor is running to reclaim this Virginia Beach seat. He has two primary opponents to defeat first, though: Navy veteran Jarome Bell and 2010 candidate Ben Loyola, who has the backing of former Rep. Scott Rigell. Taylor outspent Bell about $230,000 to $63,000 during the pre-primary period, while Loyola dropped just $36,000.
VA-05 (D) (53-42 Trump, 53-46 Romney): Four Democrats are competing for a south-central Virginia seat that became open earlier this month when Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good unseated freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman at the Republican Party convention. (Virginia allows parties to select their nominees through a regular primary or, as the GOP chose here, a convention.) The Democratic primary field consists of Marine veterans RD Huffstetler and Claire Russo, physician Cameron Webb, and Rappahannock County Supervisor John Lesinski.
Webb, who would be the area’s first Black congressman since Reconstruction, spent about $280,000 during the pre-primary period, and he benefited from another $300,000 from the 314 Action Fund, which aids candidates with backgrounds in science. Russo deployed a similar $230,000, while EMILY’s List dropped close to $500,000 for her. Huffstetler and Lesinski spent $210,000 and $80,000, respectively.
Tuesday will be an exciting night, so we hope you’ll join us for our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections!